Karl Garrett
It is high-time Tim Lincecum delivers a gem, and Sunday is that day.
Lincecum has hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing 14 runs over his last 16 innings of work for an 0-2 ledger. You can assume that Lincecum will be dealing this afternoon against a team that hasn't been able to sniff much off of him lately, as Pittsburgh has scored just 1 run off of the righty in his last 16 innings of work against them.
G-Man going to play the Giants on the RUN LINE in this game, as I believe Lincecum is sitting on a complete game shutout.
I realize the Giants are still below .500 for the season on the road, but I definitely see them getting a few runs against Russ Ohlendorf who is 0-3 this year with an over 4 ERA.
Ohlendorf has allowed 10 runs over his last 17 innings of work, so look for San Fran to take this one comfortably behind their ace.
Sunday comp play is a play on San Francisco -1 1/2 runs over Pittsburgh.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO -1.5
Stephen Nover
I am now 21-6 on my past 27 complimentary selections.
A day game at home should bring out the best in Kansas City pitcher Brian Bannister, who opposes Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman.
Bannister is 4-1 with a 3.65 ERA at Kauffman Stadium compared to 1-2 with a 6.18 ERA on the road.
Bannister also is far better when pitching during the day. His daytime ERA is 2.92 as opposed to 5.85 in the evening. Last year, Bannister's ERA in day games was 2.98 and 5.69 in night contests.
Bannister has been solid in his last four outing, not giving up more than three earned runs in any game while posting a 13-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.
Bonderman also has been in good form. He understandably started this season slow after missing most of 2008 and 2009. But lately Bonderman has become Detroit's most consistent starter.
His record shows 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA, but Bonderman has been steadily improving since his first four starts. He's turned in quality starts during his past five outings, giving up just seven earned runs. During his last 35 innings, he's struck out 27 while walking nine.
The key for Bonderman is a stronger, healthier arm and learning how to mix his pitchers better. The under has cashed in nine of his last 13 road starts.
CB Bucknor is slated to be the home plate umpire. The under is 10-2 when Bucknor has been behind the plate for Detroit games.
4♦ TIGERS/ROYALS UNDER
JOEL TYSON
Saturday winner on the Pirates for free, and now I turn my attention to Sunday's comp play.
Looking at the total of tonight's NBA game, and I have a feeling that we will see enough points tonight to safely get this one over the posted total.
Game One landed right on the closing number of 191 for the dreaded push, but overall the Lakers are on a 6-1-1 over clip the last 8 times they have been listed as the favorite.
The Lakers are also 7-2-2 over the total their last 11 games this postseason.
Boston will try and use their vaunted defense to keep from going down 2-0 in the series, but a team's defense always seems to be better when they are playing on their home court, and not away from home.
Just enough tonight to get over the tonight boys.
1♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Back on track with the free plays Saturday as the Angels (5♦) demolished the Mariners. I’m on runs of 85-52-2 and 46-30 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll take a shot with the Indians as a road underdog at the White Sox.
I know the general perception is that Chicago is the vastly superior baseball team, but that’s not really accurate. Despite an obvious edge in talent, White Sox (23-32) are only 1½ games better than Cleveland (21-33) in the standings. Part of the reason is the Tribe have owned Chicago this season, as they’ve won the first two games of this weekend series to improve to 8-3 in 11 head-to-head matchups, including 4-1 in the Windy City.
Today, Jake Westbrook matches up against White Sox southpaw Mark Buehrle for the third time this season. And while Chicago won the first two battles, Buehrle really only had a hand in one (a 6-0 Opening Day win), as he was ejected after 2 1/3 innings back on May 26 (a game the White Sox went on to win 5-4).
In between those two battles with Westbrook, Buehrle made a start in Cleveland and got rocked for six runs on six hits and four walks in six innings of a 6-2 loss. At the same time, Westbrook also has a third start against Chicago this year and he was outstanding in that one, allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings of a 3-2 home win.
Also, while Buehrle followed up his ejection with an ugly start against Texas on Tuesday (six runs, 12 hits, 5 1/3 innings in a 9-6 home loss), Westbrook is coming off one of his better outings of the season (7 2/3 innings, one run, five hits, one walk in a 3-2 win at Detroit). Finally, the White Sox are just 2-7 in Buehrle’s last nine starts (and again, he didn’t do much in that one game in Cleveland), including 1-3 at home, and Cleveland is on a 5-2 roll against left-handed starters.
Also, for what it’s worth, we’ve got a favorable umpire here, as road teams are 9-1 this year when Ed Rapuano works behind home plate.
3♦ CLEVELAND INDIANS
Chris Jordan
Chicago at HOUSTON
Looking to play the Under in this National League Central clash between the Cubs and Astros, as Randy Wells and Brett Myers are in store for a huge pitchers' duel.
Wells comes in after pitching five shutout innings on two days' rest against the Pirates on Monday and will take the mound with plenty of confidence due to his past success against the Astros.
In his last three outings versus Houston, the right-hander has tossed 21 scoreless innings and has won two of those starts. Plus, when Wells is on the hill, the Cubs are on 'under' runs of 8-2 on the road, 8-3 when visiting a team with a losing record and 4-1 overall.
With Myers, I'm banking on a pitcher who is 2-0 at home with a 2.93 ERA at Minute Maid Park, and who closed the month of May extremely effective in allowing just three earned runs over 20 innings of work. He too has had success against his opponent, as he is 2-0 in his last two starts against Chicago, allowing just five earned over 15 frames.
Let's play this one low, as I don't see this being more than a six-run ball game.
3♦ CUBS/ASTROS UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Colorado at ARIZONA
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes in N.L. West action, as I’ll play the Rockies and the incredible Ubaldo Jimenez on the run line at Arizona.
Obviously, Jimenez has been obscenely unbelievable this season, going 10-1 with a 0.78 ERA, allowing just seven runs in 80 1/3 innings. He’s also 6-1 with a 0.52 ERA on the road (three runs allowed in 52 1/3 innings).
Jimenez’s only hiccup was a 2-0 loss at Dodger Stadium back on May 9 when he was outpitched by Clayton Kershaw. Well, Kershaw is a stud with filthy stuff just like Jimenez. You would never say that about Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez, who is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA overall, including 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA in five starts in his home ballpark. Translation: No surprise the Rockies couldn’t get to Kershaw a month ago, but it’ll be a big surprise if they struggle against Lopez, especially since they pounded him just two weeks ago in a 7-3 win in Colorado (Lopez allowed four runs in six innings).
In fact, Jimenez pitched opposite Lopez that day and scattered six hits and a walk in eight scoreless innings (Arizona scored all three of its runs in the ninth). Throw in a 12-1 win over the DBacks on April 27, and Jimenez in two starts versus Arizona this year has allowed just eight hits and three walks (11 baserunners) in 14 scoreless innings. He’s 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in 10 career starts against Arizona, and in four games at Chase Field – which is a hitter’s paradise – he’s squandered just two total runs in 26 innings (0.69 ERA), notching more strikeouts (32) than combined hits and walks allowed (31).
Clearly, Jimenez can’t keep up this ridiculous pace the entire season. But given his dominance against the DBacks (both this year and in his career), his incredible numbers at Chase Field and the fact all 10 of his wins this year have been by multiple runs, this is simply a must-play -- and at 5♦ it's my highest-rated free play!
5♦ COLORADO -1.5
Derek Mancini
Minnesota at OAKLAND (-125)
Based on how Gio Gonzalez (5-3, 3.68 ERA) has pitched against the Twins in the past (career 28.59 ERA in two starts), the price on this game might seem ridiculous, but not to me. Two starts is too small a sample size to declare him an "instant fade" against Minnesota. So why is he the favorite here?
A couple reasons really, but let's start with his recent play, where he's 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA over L4 starts. 3 of those 4 efforts were quality starts, and his 2.97 ERA at the Coliseum doesn't hurt either. But most importantly, he's a beast in day games, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in that spot.
Like Gonzalez, Nick Blackburn (6-2, 4.73 ERA) also has ugly numbers against his opponent today. But unlike Gonzalez, Blackburn's sample size is a little larger (5 career game), going 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA. The Twins righty has also been anything but consistent on the road, going 2-2 with a 6.44 ERA on the season.
Neither bullpen has been especially good of late, but I don't expect it'll matter much in the Athletics case with Gonzalez showing plenty of endurance in his home starts this season (7 innings or more L4 home starts). It's been a long time since the Twins have swept the A's in Oakland, and they'll have to wait even longer, as the A's avoid the broom Sunday. Oakland (Gonzalez) over Minnesota (Blackburn).
3♦ OAKLAND
Brett Atkins
My free winner comes from Los Angeles today as I go ahead and take the plus-money with the Braves as they take on the Dodgers.
Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has been the second-best pitcher in the National League this season behind the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez.
Today, Hudson goes against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and I’ll gladly go with the Braves in this one as he’s 6-1 on the year with a 2.30 ERA and 3-0 on the road with a 2.47 ERA. In day games, he’s 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA.
Against the Dodgers, the Braves are 5-2 against Los Angeles with Hudson on the hill and all-together Hudson’s teams are 8-2 in his 10 outings against the Dodgers.
Atlanta is on streaks of 21-6 overall, 9-3 on the road and 19-7 when Hudson faces N.L. West teams. I’ll go with the Braves and gladly get that plus-money with Hudson in this one.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jay McNeil
Colorado at Arizona
Call it a hunch, if you will, but I think this is the right spot to grab some value against Ubaldo Jimenez.
This is a pitching rematch between Jimenez and Rodrigo Lopez, so the latter will be out for revenge.
But that's not the only reason I like this game, I honestly believe Jimenez will be taking this game a little too lightly.
He's won his 10th game, he's setting early-season standards and is one the verge of re-writing record books. So with everything on his side, and everything looking too good to be true, I'm thinking it just might be and that Arizona's batters could get to him early as a shocker.
I'm going to take a shot with this underdog, and will list both.
2♦ DIAMONDBACKS
Joel Tyson
Saturday winner on the Pirates for free, and now I turn my attention to Sunday's comp play.
Looking at the total of tonight's NBA game, and I have a feeling that we will see enough points tonight to safely get this one over the posted total.
Game One landed right on the closing number of 191 for the dreaded push, but overall the Lakers are on a 6-1-1 over clip the last 8 times they have been listed as the favorite.
The Lakers are also 7-2-2 over the total their last 11 games this postseason.
Boston will try and use their vaunted defense to keep from going down 2-0 in the series, but a team's defense always seems to be better when they are playing on their home court, and not away from home.
Just enough tonight to get over the tonight boys.
1♦ OVER
Tom Freese
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Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Under 9
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Kansas City starter Brian Bannister has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Royals are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games as underdogs and they are 4-1 UNDER vs. Bonderman. The Royals are 5-2 UNDER with Bannister as an underdog. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 5 starts. The Tigers are 9-4 UNDER in the last 13 starts made by Bonderman on the road. Detroit is 9-3-2 UNDER their last 14 games when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Bonderman is 7-1 UNDER vs. NL Central teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
SPORTS WAGERS
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Boston +2.14/+6 over L.A. LAKERS
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The Lakers did whatever they wanted in game one and that’s all there is to that. The Celtics will have to make some adjustments tonight and it says here they do exactly that. They failed to get a body on Gasol and Bynum under the basket and those two kept jamming down rebounds. It was a frustrating thing to watch if you were on the C’s as we were. Anyway, the Celtics handled Dwight Howard so there’s no excuse for them not to be able to handle Gasol and a banged up Bynum. The Celtics still have the much better bench and one cannot overlook the fact that Ray Allen got into early foul trouble and his minutes were extremely limited. In fact, Allen only played 27 minutes. The C’s had a bad game all around. They went just 1-10 from deep and that strong bench was pretty much useless. So yeah, the Lakers are so tough in its own barn and they’re now 9-0 in the playoffs there. However, the C’s failed to show up in game one and you know for sure they’ll show up tonight and give the Lakers a much tougher time. Let’s not forget that the Celtics ripped apart both Orlando and Cleveland and they’re too good to be spotting this many points. Play: Boston +6 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play Boston +2.14 (Risking 1 unit).
HOUSTON +1.05 over Chicago
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Can someone explain why the Cubbies are favored over the Astros in Houston? It’s simply incorrect, as the Cubs are just 4½ games better than the Astros, they have the second best starter going here, its offense is as bad and probably more unreliable than the Astros and its bullpen is among the lousiest in the game. In fact, over the last 15 games, the Astros have scored 21 more runs than the Cubbies and they’re batting 30 points higher. Over that same stretch, the Astros have also struck out 24 less times than the Cubs have. Than we have the starters. Randy Wells has allowed 69 hits in 61 innings for a BAA of .280. He’s been crushed in three of his last six starts and that includes a game in which he did not make it out of the first inning. His numbers are average and so is his stuff. Brett Myers has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last month or so. He is coming off a start that featured a season-high 10 strikeouts. His dominance has been surging, with 27 strikeouts in his last four starts, covering 28 IP. Myers has pitched seven full innings or more in seven of his last 10 starts. Typically plagued by the HR in the past, Myers has shown major improvement in that area this season, allowing six jacks to-date (0.7 hr/9). Again, the Cubbies favored here is wrong. Play: Houston +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +1.25 over NY Yankees
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Javier Vazquez has had two good starts in his last three outings but so what. He had a good game at Citi Field against the Mets and a good game against the lame Orioles. He still sports an ERA of 6.06 and the high majority of his outings this year have been disasters. Throw out those two games against the Mets and O’s and his ERA would be close to 7.50. The Jays have killed righties all year, as their 16-8 record at home against right-handers will attest to. Vazquez has also been taken yard 10 times in 49 IP and that could be a huge problem here as the Jays continue to crush the field in homeruns hit. In fact, the Jays have smacked a lead-leading 96 jacks and the closest to them is a distant 18 behind. Brandon Morrow is the Jays worst starter with the best stuff on the staff. When he’s on he’s wickedly good and he’s been on at home way more often than not. In fact, at the Rogers Center, Morrow is 4-1 with a 3.90 ERA and is coming off a seven-inning, three-hit, one-run gem against the Rays. Yanks may win here but the true value is on the Jays, as this is not a team that is going away anytime soon and has proven they’re for real. Play: Toronto +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Fargo
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Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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This is an excellent spot for the Royals to take this series. The first two games have been split as the royals ran into a buzzsaw on Saturday with Justin Verlander. The Tigers are favored again Sunday but for all of the wrong reasons in my opinion. Jeremy Bonderman has been solid this season with a 3.72 ERA through nine starts and if not for one blowup against the Mariners, his numbers would be even better. He has now thrown five straight quality outings and with him being what I consider a non-elite pitcher, this is the time to start fading. The price continues to rise while the probability of his success continues to fall. In five road starts this season he has a 5.02 ERA. He squares off against Brian Bannister who is also having a very good season. He has just two bad starts on the year and he has now allowed three runs or fewer in four straight games. The last outing was not a quality performance though so he does not fit into the same rationale of fading similar to that of Bonderman. He has been great at home, going 4-1 with a 3.65 ERA in six starts and facing the Tigers is a very good thing. In eight career starts against Detroit, he has a 2.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with six of those eight games being quality efforts. He has been the hard luck pitcher twice this season already as he has shut down the Tigers twice with two quality starts only to receive a no-decision in each game and the Royals going down in both. The Tigers are 1-8 in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .400 or worse while the Royals are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150. Also, Detroit is just 4-10 in Bonderman’s last 14 starts following a quality performance in his last contest while Kansas City is a solid 5-1 in Bannister’s last six starts as an underdog. 3* Kansas City Royals
LARRY NESS
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Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
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The Twins lost three of four in Seattle to open a seven-game road trip but have rebounded to take the first two games of their series vs the A's in Oakland. Minnesota now has a chance for its first sweep in Oakland since July 18-20, 1997. To do that though, Nick Blackburn will have to pitch much better than he ever has vs the Twins. Blackburn was 6-1 in his first nine starts in 2010 (team was 8-1) but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing 10 hits and five ERs in a 7-1 loss at Seattle on Tuesday. He'll now try to bounce back here in Oakland vs the A's. Historically, Blackburn's chances of pitching well look bleak. He made three starts vs the A's last year, allowing 25 hits and 16 ERs over 16 innings (9.00 ERA), going 0-2 (team was 0-3). He’s 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA in five career starts vs Oakland with the Twins losing all five. He's opposed by Oakland lefty Gio Gonzalez, who has pitched very well for the A's in 2010, especially lately. He's 5-3 with a 3.68 in 11 starts this season, after going 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA in his last four starts (team is 3-1). Expect the A's to avoid the dreaded home sweep here.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 -121
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Jimenez has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this season, going 10-1 with a 0.78 ERA. The scary thing is that he is getting better with each start. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.00 over his last 3. He has also received plenty of run support, and that has made him a solid run line bet. In fact, all 10 of his wins have come by at least 2 runs this season. Considering the Rockies are facing Lopez (5.52 home ERA), I expect them to be able to support Jimenez again here. It is also probably worth mentioning that Jimenez has just a 2.14 ERA in 11 career starts against Arizona so we can't expect the Snakes to come away with more than a couple. And, the Rocks shelled Lopez last week. Take the Rockies on the run line.