Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday March, 11

WUNDERDOG

Philadelphia at New York Knicks
Pick: New York Knicks -2.5

Philadelphia is off two big wins, one over rival Boston, but both were at home. The 76ers are still 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They have a losing record on the season away from home and face a New York team with a lot of expectations, and talent. Jeremy Lin has upgraded this attack and they have Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony healthy and producing. Lin had 20 points and 13 assists, with four steals the last game, a loss at Milwaukee, despite shooting 55%. The Knicks are home from a lousy four-game trip, and are hungry for a win. The Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and the 76ers are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings in New York.
Play the Knicks.

Sports Wagers NBA

Indiana +184/+5½ over ORLANDO

Great spot for the Pacers in that they catch the Magic returning home from a brief three-game trip in which Orlando beat the Bulls in the final leg of that excursion. That has increased the stock value of the Magic while the Pacers stock has decreased with three straight losses. What's also noteworthy is that Orlando has the Heat on deck on Tuesday, making this game the sandwich game between Chicago and Miami. As the Magic prep for their games, the media continues to focus on Dwight Howard and the trade deadline. That's a distraction and one that certainly takes away from the current task. Indiana played in Miami last night and lost by a bucket in OT. It's a loss but it was a somewhat inspiring loss that should give them confidence heading into this one. Fatigue should not be an issue because the Pacers were off for three full days prior to yesterday. Besides being in a much better spot, the Pacers are at the very least on the same level as the Magic in terms of talent and W/L records and there is no reason they don’t compete throughout in this one. Play: Indiana +184 (Riskiing 2 units). Play: Indiana +5 (Risking 1.1 units).

Los Angeles +125 over CHICAGO

The Kings couldn't hit water from a boat up until the trade deadline. They were the NHL's lowest scoring team up to that point, yet they've hung around all season because Jonathan Quick has the NHL's highest save % and allowed his guys to pick up 10 points for Los Angeles when they failed to score just one single goal in regulation. Subsequently, the Kings picked up Jeff Carter at the deadline and that seems to have awakened the entire club. Since the deadline and throwing out the game against the Jackets, L.A. has scored 16 goals in four games against Minnesota, Anaheim, Nashville and Detroit. They won three of those four games and should've won all four had Quick not allowed four goals on 15 shots in Detroit on Friday. The Kings have shutout the Blackhawks twice already this season and in three games against them, L.A. is 2-1 and has outscored Chicago 7-2. The Blackhawks are playing better these days as well but the Kings offer up so much value taking back a tag here. Carter’s play has cascaded down to others and suddenly the team is playing with some confidence, a team that has enough talent to compete offensively. The Kings can leapfrog back into a playoff spot with a win here and they want it bad enough to get it. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).

Free NBA Release for 3/11: LA Lakers -5.5 over the Boston Celtics. The Lakers are showing us some solid value today against the Celtics, who are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games. This almost made our Play Of The Day, but we actually found more value in a college game. We've faded LA successfully a few times on the road this year, but they are a completely different team when playing at the Staples Center. The Lakers are 17-2 SU and 13-6 ATS on the home court this year, where they're averaging over 97 points/game on nearly 48% shooting. But best of all, LA is holding opponents to a stingy 86.9 points/game at home, and outscoring them by 10.6 points game. That's bad news for the Celtics who already only score 87.9 points/game on the road, where they are 5-10 SU & ATS. In the only game between these two this season, the Lakers edged the Celtics on the road in overtime. The Celtics are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games attempting revenge from a home loss. We like the Lakers to win by double digits at home. Boston is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. LA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games overall. We'll lay the points for the home chalk in this one, LA -5.5. Our free plays are now 175-95-1 all-time (65%). Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive all of our free releases via email.

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets will be itching to shake a two-game losing skid suffered this season against the Grizzlies when they host Memphis Sunday night in Denver. The history book certainly likes their chances given the fact the Grizzlies are 1-24 SU and 7-17 ATS the last 25 games on this floor. With Memphis in off a same season revenger at Phoenix last night, look for the Nuggets to strike gold once again here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Florida State at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina

This is as big of a revenge spot as you'll ever find North Carolina in under Roy Williams as they look for payback from the worst loss during his tenure in Chapel Hill, a 33-point loss at Florida State back in January. Despite yesterday's beneficial officiating, Williams has his team peaking at the right time. Lay the number as North Carolina heads into the Tournament as a #1 seed having won the regular season and tournament championships in the ACC.

Rob Vinciletti

St. Louis Blues vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: St. Louis Blues

The Blues are a solid 20-4 vs losing teams and have won 10 of their last 11 in this role. They have won 8 of their last 9 and take on a Columbus team that has struggled in divisional play losing 15 of their last 18. When the Blue Jackets take on winning teams they have an anemic 9-29 record. Look for the Blues to to get the win here and sweep the home and home series. Take St. Louis.

BEN BURNS

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

These teams have met three times this season. The Leafs crushed the Capitals by a score of 7-1 in the first meeting. That embarrassing loss seemed to wake up the Caps though, letting them know they better treat Toronto seriously. Since the debacle at the Air Canada Centre on 11/19, the Caps have won both meetings. This should provide them with another excellent opportunity to pick up two points.

Both teams played yesterday. The Caps played early in the day though, so had several more hours between games. (The Leafs' Saturday game started less than 24 hrs ago.) More importantly, the Caps are off a momentum-building victory while the Leafs are off a deflating shootout loss.

The Caps beat the defending champion Boston Bruins by a score of 4-3. They enter Sunday's action in sole possession of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

One could argue this game is more important to the Leafs. After all, they're down in 12th place, six points behind the Caps. I won't even debate that logic. However, needing to win and actually winning are two entirely different matters. Indeed, the Leafs have been "needing to win" for weeks, yet they're still an awful 2-13 their last 15. Yesterday, they couldn't even manage a single goal.

Note that with Wednesday's loss, the Leafs are an ugly 16-30 (-9.7) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games.

The last time the Caps played the second of back-to-back-games, they beat these same Leafs on 2/25. Including that result, they're 82-45 against teams with a losing record the past few seasons and 7-3 the last 10 times that they were a host in this series. Consider laying the wood.

STEPHEN NOVER

Boston @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Under 179

It's hard to image a Celtic-Laker total this low with players such as Kobe Bryant, Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce playing.

But the low total is justified. It probably should be even lower. These teams have a strong recent history of going below the total when meeting - 6-1-1 under the past eight times.

The Lakers are giving up fewer than 87 points per game at home. The Celtics are averaging less than 82 points per game during their last seven road contests.

Both teams had to make long trips to the West Coast following Friday night games. Boston is playing for the fourth time in six days. Not good for the aging Kevin Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen. An early start time doesn't help Boston either.

The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the Celtics have faced a foe with a winning mark.

Los Angeles is in action for the fourth time in six days, too, and off a grueling road win against the Timberwolves Friday night.

Because of this don't look for either team to do much running, or look for fast break points. There's going to be a lot of ball movement and half-court sets. This, of course, eats clock.

SEAN MURPHY

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
PICK: Kentucky -7.5

Kentucky hasn't exactly cruised to the SEC Tournament final, notching single-digit victories over LSU and Florida over the last two days.

I believe the hunger for a championship kicks in with these young players on Sunday, as they face a beatable opponent in Vanderbilt.

Vandy has rode exceptional defensive play to the final of this tournament, but they'll need a lot more from their offense if they're going to cut down the nets on Sunday. Kentucky presents matchup problems all over the court, as we saw in their two regular season meetings, when the Wildcats shot 60-of-114 (52.6%) from the field.

Remember, the Wildcats also looked less than stellar in their first two tournament games last year (some would argue they dominated Alabama, but in watching that game, they weren't exactly going all out), but ultimately crushed Florida by 16 points in the final.

Vandy enters today's game off of back-to-back ATS wins, and that's worth noting, as the Commodores have yet to post three consecutive ATS victories this season. The last time they tried to accomplish that feat, they suffered a seven-point loss at Tennessee.

The 'Dores aren't that well-suited to playing from behind, which is something I suspect they'll have to do a lot of on Sunday. John Calipari gets his team up for big games like this, and I expect this new class of Wildcats to taste a championship, in convincing fashion.

DAVID CHAN

Calgary @ Minnesota
PICK: Calgary -1.5

The 31-25-12 Calgary Flames roar into Minnesota to take on the 29-29-10 Wild.

Miikka Kiprusoff is set to square off against Josh Harding between the pipes.

The Flames aren't 100% healthy, but they have been getting consistent scoring up and down their lineup.

The Wild are injured badly, and are starting to fade in the Western Conference playoff race.

Calgary is coming off a successful three-game home-stand, earning five of a possible six-points; its latest victory was a convincing 5-3 effort over the Jets on Friday.

Alex Tanguay has helped fill the scoring void for Calgary with 13-points over his last eight games, which included a season-high four vs. Winnipeg.

“Our big guys have been responding and doing a good job,” coach Brent Sutter said.

Special teams has also been key for the Flames, going 7 for 24 with the man-advantage over their last eight-contests.

Minnesota is just 2-6-1 over its last nine at the Xcel Energy Center.

The Wild are without No. 1 goaltender Nicklas Backstrom; also their captain Mikko Koivu, and six other players are out with injury.

And that's bad news for Wild backers tonight, as Kiprusoff is 3-1-0 with a 1.51 GAA in four games vs. Minnesota this year.

I'm going to lay the 1.5-goals for the huge plus-money return!

Jeff Alexander

Indiana Pacers +5.5

The Pacers are coming off a tough OT loss to Miami last night, but I expect them to dig down deep and give the Magic a game. That was Indy's 3rd straight loss (which can't be sitting well) and it will also be out for revenge for a 4-point home loss to the Magic on Feb. 4. The Magic have had 2 days' rest and are coming off a big win over the Bulls, but neither of these things will likely serve them well here. In fact, the Magic are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Plus, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Pacers.

Jimmy Boyd

Warriors/Clippers UNDER 199.5

The Warriors' 24-point win over Dallas Saturday and the Clippers' 12-point win over San Antonio Friday sets up a very solid unders situation for us this evening. Consider that "under" plays on any team off a home blowout win of 20 points or more that is matched up against an opponent off a road win of 10 points or more are 88-43 (67.2%) since 1996. We have only seen an average of 190.0 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 31-11 (73.8%) the last 5 seasons. These two have played to the under in 4 of their last 5 in Los Angeles. We'll bet the under.

Jack Jones

Houston Rockets +3.5

The Houston Rockets should not be an underdog Sunday against the Cleveland Cavaliers. I'll gladly take this value and back the Rockets in a game that I believe they'll win outright.

After five straight losses and two days off, the Rockets finally got back on track yesterday with a 112-106 victory at New Jersey. Even with this recent tough stretch, I still believe the Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Cleveland is coming off a pair of impressive road wins over the Nuggets and Thunder, who clearly did not take the Cavaliers seriously. As a result of those wins, Cleveland is clearly overvalued in this spot. Houston will take them seriously tonight.

Houston is 14-4 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 21-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1996. The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet Houston Sunday.

John Ryan

St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier
Play: St. Bonaventure +3½

5* graded play on St. Bonaventure as they take on Xavier in the A-10 final set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that St. Bonaventure can win this game, which is going to be terrible news for all bubble teams. I fell most bad for the team from the Philadelphia region in Drexel, who arguably have the strong resume to get a bid to the dance. A Bonnie win takes away an at-large bid and quite frankly Drexel is a better team than them. Yet, rules must be followed and should St. Bonaventure win this game they will have earned the right to platy in the Tournament as a conference champion. Xavier has struggled mightily against winning record teams noting they are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games this season. Moreover, they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season; 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season. Take St. Bonaventure.