Jim Feist
Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks had Saturday off after winning at home on Friday against the Knicks, 119-114. While it was just the second win for the Bucks in their last six games, they have covered three straight. Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back spot here on Sunday after Saturday's game at Detroit. The Raptors have only only 13 wins on the season. However, the club has done very well at covering spreads, going 6-0-1 their last 7 and 9-2-1 their last 12. But where the Pacers have not done well is when the play the second of this back-to-back spot at home. They are just 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 in this spot. In addition, the Pacers have allowed an average of 106 ppg in those contests. My free play for Sunday is on the Milwaukee Bucks.
Dave Cokin
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State
Sensational matchup between two defensive stalwarts today for the Big 10 title. This sure looks like coin flip material. But with revenge from the regular season finale plus a little help from the spread, I'm backing Michigan State to get past the Buckeyes.
Nelly
Boston + over Los Angeles
Boston continues to surge in the second half. While the schedule has not been overly difficult the Celtics have won six of the seven games since the All Star Break. The lone loss came in a difficult scheduling spot but the Celtics should be in good shape to take on a challenging road contest in a hyped TV game with its storied rival. The Lakers snapped a two-game skid with a narrow win in Minneapolis on Friday. The win deserves as asterisk as Kevin Love did not play for Minnesota and Kobe Bryant also knocked Ricky Rubio out of the game (and the season). This is a Lakers team that everyone thought was 'back' after a big win over Miami (sans Chris Bosh) but the Lakers went on to lose to Detroit and Washington the next two games. Los Angeles has been a strong home team at 13-6 ATS on the year while Boston has struggled ATS away from home but this is a match-up that will have the Celtics full attention. The Lakers won in Boston about a month ago in an 88-87 overtime game in the first meeting between these teams this season. Both teams shot poorly in the defensive grind but it was a game where Boston was awarded just five free throw attempts as there was a huge foul disparity.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Florida State Over 142.5: Yesterday FSU really slowed Duke down took away their 3 point shot and that kept the scoring down in the game and the two sides combined for just 121 points. That defensive performance was not the norm for the Noles down the stretch as they had allowed 71+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Today they face a Carolina team that may be without Henson, but they still have plenty of fire power and they have averaged 78.3 ppg in their last 6 games. Henson would be missed more on the defensive end with his 10.1 rbg and 94 blocked shots on the year and that should allow FSU to get plenty points of their own in this one. One other thing to look for in this one is that the Noles hung 90 points on Carloina the last time and the Heels have to be a bit pissed at that so i would really look for them try and put up plenty of points to get a measure of revenge in this one. Carolina should have this game at their pace and that means a score in the 150'S.
Xavier -3 over St Bonaventure: Xavier was at one point ranked in the top ten this year, but then the brawl vs Cincy ended all that and once they fell out of the rankings they have been unable to return. After that game Xavier had gone just 1-5 in their next 6 games, before winning their next four, which included a 13 point win over these same Bonnies. St Bonnaventure is playing well right now, but this is not a team they have fared well against. The Bonnies have lost each of the last 10 in this series by an average of 19.2 ppg, with each one of those losses coming by at least 13 points. Xavier may have punched their ticket with the win over St Louis, but they will not take any chances, especially vs a team they have dominated in the past. DD win for Xavier here.
2 UNIT PLAY
St Bonaventure/. Xavier Over 136.5: Both these teams like to run and that should make for a high scoring affair. 6 of the Bonnies last 8 games have hit vat least 138 points and they come in averaging 74.5 ppg in their last 5 games. Xavier has played some lower scoring games of late, but they have also been vs solid defensive teams like st Louis and Dayton. The Bonnies have not played great defense of late as they have allowed 73.5 ppg in their last 5 games and Xavier can take advantage as they come in averaging 71.2 ppg overall and 71.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Xavier has been good on defense, but in an uptempo game the Bonnies will get their points. RThis one should squeak over 140.
1 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky/ Vanderbilt Over 137.5: The Cats come in averaging 74.3 ppg in their last 7 games and they have put up 76 ppg in their 2 games vs Vanderbilt this year. The Cats do play great defense but they did allow 71 points to Florida yesterday and 74 points to Vanderbilt the last time these teams played. Vanderbilt has not been scoring all that great of late, but they still have averaged 73 ppg on the year and 72.2 ppg when they have played away from home this year. Both of these teams do shoot well as the Commodores are 69th in shooting 946%) and 21st in 3 point shooting (39.1%) while the Cats are 9th in shooting (48.7%) and 33rd in 3 point shooting (38%). Both teams also hit their FT's at 69.9% or better. These are some solid defensive teams, but both teams can score in all phases of their offenses and that should have this game hit the 140's with ease.
Tony George
Florida State +6
Not all that impressed with NC, and FSU beating up and dominating Duke was impressive yesterday. FSU has a history of playing NC tough and covering the number, and their defense which stmyed Duke yesterday should stay in true form against what I feel is an overrated NC team on Sunday. A ton of points for a Championship game, and after NC State outplayed Duke yesterday only to lose by 2, I think NC comes into this game back on their heels. FSU very well coached, look for a tight one here.
CHUCK O'BRIEN
Both of these teams have seen a majority of their games stay low this year: Vanderbilt is 12-17 under, while Kentucky is 12-18-2 under. These two met twice this season, with one game soaring and the other staying low.
But what stands out most to me is how defensive Vanderbilt has gotten of late, on its way to the title, staying low in three straight games by limiting its foes to 68, 41 and 53 points - the last two in conference tournament action.
The Commodores come in on under runs of 5-1 after winning on the wood and at the window, 4-1 on neutral courts and 5-2 overall - all in Southeastern Conference play. Kentucky, which has the 10th-best scoring defense in the nation, is in on Under runs of 8-1 when laying points on a neutral court, 22-8 overall at a neutral site and a whopping 29-11 after winning straight up.
Vandy has to know the only way it's going to be able to get out of this game unscathed is to match defensive wits with Kentucky, rather than try to penetrated the Wildcats' stringent D.
Play this one low.
1♦ UNDER
DEREK MANCINI
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with St. Bonaventure plus the points over Xavier in today's A-10 Tourney Title Game. The Musketeers came into this season with all the accolades in the A-10, only to see them underachieve following "the brawl." On the flip side, the Bonnies are a surprise here, but not for anyone who's followed the A-10 this season. Bona has gone an outstanding 6-1 SUATS over their L7 games, including wins over St. Joe's and UMASS in their last two. This is an underrated team with a lot to play for, and it'll show this afternoon.
These two teams met once this season with Xavier winning easily 77-64 as a 9-point chalk. That being said, a lot has happened since that January 14th meeting, including Xavier losing 6 of their next 13 games, while the Bonnies went on to win 8 of their next 12, including the aformentioend 6-1 run SUATS down the stretch. No question which team is playing more consistent ball coming into this game.
Finally, while Tu Holloway gets all the publicity, Andrew Nicholson is a stud, averaging 18 ppg on 57% shooting and a little over 8 boards/game. He's got a great compliment in Demitrius Conger, who dropped 22 points, 10 boards and 8 assists on UMASS with Nicholson in foul trouble most of the game. Look guys, this line may see like a gift from the oddsmakers, but that's only if you haven't been following the A-10 closely. Truth is the Bonnies are a rock-solid team with some star power of their own. They've got revenge on their side, and I say they get their pound of flesh this afternoon. Take St. Bonaventure plus the points over Xavier Sunday.
3♦ ST. BONAVENTURE
SCOTT DELANEY
Something tells me we're going to see this number soar today, as both tend to put points on the board, and both have gone over more times than not this season.
But more importantly, the oddsmakers can't seem to get things right when it comes to these two, as they've gone over the posted number in seven straight meetings, averaging 153.8 points in those games. Going back 10 games, the two conference rivals have averaged 146.6 points.
That's why I'm shaking my head at this posted total of 136 points today.
You have to assume St. Bonaventure is going to attack the offensive end of the floor and force an uptempo game, and you have to expect Xavier to respond accordingly with a strong offensive game of its own.
In the first two games of the tournament, St. Bonnies' games fell on 139 and 164, while Xavier's games fell on 135 and 139. Average those four numbers and you're looking at a total of 144.2 points.
The Bonnnies and Muskies had two of the highest field-goal percentages in the Atlantic 10 Conference, so I'm expecting a well-executed game today, one that should get the final tally in the 140s.
1♦ OVER