Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 13,2011

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors Mar 13 2011 9:05PM
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Poker pro Mike Mizrachi is known as The Grinder. He?ll take a seat at the table and just wear you down. In NBA parlance, this is a Mizrachi play. One not loaded with a lot of glamour, instead just a lot of grinder-like numbers. For openers, the Warriors have rewarded their backers mostly during the 2nd half of the campaign, sporting a 44-28-1 ATS mark as conference home favorites when seeking same-season revenge. On the flip side, the Timberwolves are famous for running scared against a foe they beat most recently, going just 23-44-2 ATS into same-season revengers. Minny is also not-so-mighty in games after dancing with the Jazz as its 16-24 ATS mark on the road testifies. Toss in Goldens 5-1 SU and ATS over-the-top mark of late in this series and just like that were all-in with the Warriors tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston Celtics -9

Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and with a full day of rest on their side, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong against the Bucks Sunday. The Bucks have played the Celtics close in a pair of losses this season, but Boston wasn't heavily motivated in either of those games. Plus, Milwaukee faces the tough task of taking on the Celtics without a day of rest. Boston is a proven bounce back team from a SU and ATS perspective. In fact, it is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games following a SU loss. In addition, Boston is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games following consecutive losses by 6 points or less. It is also worth noting that the C's are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the number in 2 or more consecutive games this season. They are winning by an average score of 100.8 to 88.5 in this situation. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, and I expect them to fall again in this role Sunday.

Charlie Scott

Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Under 146

Time to zig zag with North Carolina Totals. We Won an easy Over Yesterday when the oddsmaker posted a bad 131 Total in NC/Clemson. Today the oddsmaker overreacts and puts this total up. Third game in 3 days for both teams NC tries to play defense, but struggles on offense in the half court. Look for Duke with G Smith injured to play at a slower pace.

Rob Vinciletti

Pacers vs. Knicks
Play: Over 218

This game fits the solid system below that has cashed 10 of 11 times since 1995. The Line looks a little high for the late phones but for a free play will take a shot. The Pacers have gone over in 6 of their last 9 vs winning teams and the Knicks have gone over 7 of the last 9 vs losing teams. For the system we want to play the over for road dogs of 5 or more like Indy that was on the road with a spread of +3 to -3 and scored 90 or more on 455 or less shooting vs an opponent that scored 100 or more as a road dog and the posted total is 190 or higher. This system has cashed 10 of 11 times since 1995. Go over the total is what should be an entertaining game.

BEN BURNS

Blackhawks @ Capitals
PICK: Under 5.5

I've pointed out several times this season that the Capitals have "quietly" been a very profitable "under" team. That absolutely continues to be the case.

Off a 2-1 victory over Carolina on Friday, the Caps have now seen the "under" go 6-0-1 their last seven games. Looking back a little further finds the "under" at 9-1-1 their last 11 games.

This is not a "new" pattern for this team, as its been going on all year. In fact, the "under" is now a highly lucrative 50-16-3 in their games overall. That includes a 13-2 mark when the Caps have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Pretty remarkable stats, particularly for a team which used to be known for its offense.

Naturally, the Hawks haven't been as profitable an "under" team as Washington - no team has. In fact, off a 4-3 loss at Tampa on Wednesday, the defending champs have seen the "over" go 6-1 their last seven games.

The Hawks are in a couple of their better "under" spots though. They've seen the "under" go 4-2 when playing with three day's rest in between games. They've also seen the "under" go 13-7, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game.

With this being an "early" start, don't be surprised if the offenses are a little "sleepy." Consider the Under

Tom Stryker

Milwaukee @ Boston
PICK: Boston -9

Off back-to-back straight up losses to the Clippers and 76ers, the Celtics will take the floor on Sunday evening focused on the task at hand. Boston has fallen into a tie with Chicago for the top spot in the East and that fact will certainly have the Shamrocks motivated here.

Knocking off Milwaukee won't be an easy task. The Bucks check into the TD Garden with plenty of momentum off three consecutive wins and covers over Washington, Cleveland and Philadelphia. Fortunately, this is one of Milwaukee's worst situations. When coming off three or more straight up wins, the Bucks have struggled something fierce posting a woeful 49-83-4 ATS record.

In comparison, this is one of the best technical spots for Boston. When facing an opponent that checks in off three or more straight up wins, the Celtics have been a force notching a powerful 43-16 SU and 39-20 ATS record. In this role coming off a straight up loss, Boston tightens up to a spectacular 15-5 ATS!

In the NBA, home favorites arriving off three or more pointspread losses have produced a respectable 37-22 ATS record provided they're matched up against an unrested for that enters off three or more pointspread wins. Conference hosts in this situation have done a little better posting a solid 27-14 ATS mark and this angle is currently on a 20-7 ATS run.

Glen Davis is expected to be back for the Celtics tonight and his presence in the paint will provide the Shamrocks with additional spark they need. Take Boston.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Milwaukee @ Boston
PICK: Boston -9

For a number of different reasons I look for the C's to take care of business today against the visiting Milwaukee Bucks:

The Bucks are 30-32-2 ATS this season; they killed the 76ers yesterday 102-74 as 2-point favorites; that was this teams third SU, and fourth ATS victory in a row.

The achilles heel of this team though has been its play on the road; just 1-6 SU its last seven away from friendly confines.

On the other side of the court: The Celtics are just 29-32-2 ATS this season; on Friday they lost 89-86 at Philadelphia; that was Boston's second straight SU loss after a five game win streak.

Boston has struggled in many ATS statistical categories this year, but is 4-1 SU its last five at the Garden; also 10-3 SU its last 13 vs. the Bucks.

Bottom line: The Celtics haven't lost three straight since late March 2010; they'll surely benefit today from the return of Glen Davis who's been out the last four games.

Expect Milwaukee to come out a bit sluggish here in the second game of this back to back scenario; also remember that despite having won three in a row, the Bucks average just 91.7 points and shoot just 42.7 percent this season (both league lows).

Consider a second look at the BOSTON CELTICS in this contest.

Tom Freese

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -8

Indiana is 27-38 straight up this year. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS their 4 games overall. Indiana is 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. New York is 34-30 straight up this year. The Knicks are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 games off a straight up loss. New York is 10-3 ATS after allowing more than 125 points in their last game. The Knicks are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall and they are 8-3 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +114 over WASHINGTON

Out of nowhere for the Caps comes goaltender Braden Holtby and Washington is giving him every opportunity to take over as the #1 guy. He has looked good; make no mistake about that. He’s poised as hell and he plays like he’s been around for 10 years and not much has gotten by him since he was inserted into the lineup three games ago. During that stretch the Caps have won all three and he’s allowed two goals. However, he also faced an Edmonton team minus a bunch of players including Taylor Hall, a Lightning team that has scored two goals or less in seven of their last eight and a Canes team on Friday that has lost four straight and hasn’t scored more than two goals in any of those losses. The Caps are hot with nine wins in 10 games. Every single one of those wins with the exception of a 5-0 victory over the Oilers came by a single goal. Six of the teams they beat over that span are going to miss the playoffs. Two others, Buffalo and Carolina, are right on the bubble. The other win was over a depleted Penguins and the one loss was by a score of 6-0 to the Rangers. So, we’re not buying the Caps are back argument. Most of those games they trailed in and scored some very late goals to either break a tie or send it to OT. Three of the wins came in OT. Prior to this current run they has lost 12 of 17. A win is a win is a win in this league. There really isn’t any “easy outs” anymore. However, it’s not like the Caps were winning going away either. They scratched and clawed to every win but one during this “hot” streak but things get much tougher against a Blackhawk squad that is also surging with eight wins in its last 10 and points in nine of them. Chicago is a team that’s offensively potent. They’ve scored four or more in five of its past seven while Washington games have gone under the total in 20 of their last 25 home games. Chicago is the toughest team the Caps will face in a long time and it’s also worth noting they embark on a six-game trip starting Tuesday in Montreal and also ending in Montreal 10 days later. Play: Chicago +114 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Milwaukee Bucks +9.5

The Celtics are still trying to figure things out with all their new pieces and I don't see them beating anyone by double digits right now. The Celtics had been escape artists in recent games, getting away with blowing leads, starting slow then catching up in the fourth quarter. But in the last two games, they’ve paid for it in losses to the Clippers and Sixers. The Celtics are a little soft in the middle right now since trading away Kendrick Perkins and the Bucks Center Andrew Bogut could take advantage of that weakness. Milwaukee seems to always play Boston tough and they are 7-1-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings with the Celtics. I look for them to give the Celtics another game in this one. Take the points.

MTi Sports

Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (+15.3 ppg) with at least one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points. Consider Charlotte.

David Chan

Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

I bet value where I see it and look for the Anaheim Ducks to skate away with a victory in front of the home town crowd tonight against the visiting Phoenix Coyotes.

These teams are among eight clubs within six points of each others for the final five playoff spots in the West:

“We can’t afford to miss points when everybody else is winning around us,” Ducks coach Randy Carlyle said. “That’s the situation we’re in. We can’t afford to give up points at this point of the season.”

Anaheim has won five of six; the Coyotes are coming off a 3-0 win over Calgary on Thursday.

The last time these teams met, the Coyotes killed the Ducks 6-2 back on January 15th in Phoenix, but note that the Coyotes are 1-4 their last five on the road overall.

Also, Anaheim is 21-12 [+11.5 units] revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season.

Dan Ellis has been sharp between the pipes for the Ducks since being traded before the deadline, improving to 5-1-1 with a 2.22 GAA.

Great line-value on ANAHEIM.

Jack Jones

Richmond -4

The Richmond Spiders are 26-7 on the season and they'll take on the Dayton Flyers who are 22-12 on the year. Dayton has made a nice run to get to the Atlantic 10 title game, but that run comes to an end against the red hot Spiders. Richmond is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall while saving their best basketball for last.

The Spiders won 70-61 on the road at Dayton in their lone regular season meetings. Richmond held the Flyers to just 34.4% shooting in that contest. The Spiders are 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Richmond is 9-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Richmond Sunday.

JIM FEIST

MILWAUKEE BUCKS / BOSTON CELTICS
TAKE MILWAUKEE BUCKS

This may be a first round eastern conference playoff matchup if the Bucks can sneak into the 8th and final spot. Right now the Celtics hold the top spot in the east, a few percentage points above Chicago. Meanwhile, Milwaukee sits 1/2 game behind Indiana and nine percentage points behind Charlotte for the 8th playoff spot. With Indiana winning just two of its last 10 games and Charlotte three of its last 10, the Bucks are looking to sneak past both in the coming days. The Bucks have had good success against the Celtics, covering five of the last six in the series including the last two in Boston. Yes, the Bucks will be playing on no days rest, having trounced Philly on Saturday, 102-74. But that hasn't been a problem for Milwaukee as they are 28-11 their last 39 in the second of a back-to-back spot. The dog is 7-1-1 the last nine meetings between these clubs and I look for that to continue here on Sunday as the Bucks give the Celtics all they can handle.