Stan Lisowski
Golden State
Minnesota is 5-27 straight up on the road, losing those games by a 9.5 point average. Warriors have revenge on a court where the favorite has covered 60% of the time. Away from home off of an outright win, the T-Wolves are just 1-7 straight up, with a 12.5 point average margin of defeat.
Michael Cannon
Duke (-3') vs. North Carolina, at Greensboro, NC
Take the Duke Blue Devils as the favorite against North Carolina in the ACC championship game.
I’d be more inclined to take the points with North Carolina had they played better up to this point. I know that sounds funny considering they are playing for the conference championship today, but they played lousy for the first 35 minutes against Miami (Fla) before a furious comeback, then were outplayed for much of yesterday’s game against Clemson before coming back and winning in overtime.
Trust me, if the Tarheels come out today like they did the last two games, Duke is going to roll to an easy win.
The Blue Devils finally got some production out of Kyle Singler in their blowout win over Maryland on Friday and that just helps take the pressure off Nolan Smith and Seth Curry.
Smith is a fantastic player and you can pretty much bet his production today will cancel out whatever Harrison Barnes puts up for Unc.
If the Tarheels don’t have the trump card with Barnes, they aren’t going to get it done.
Take Duke minus the points as they represent your 2011 ACC champions.
3♦ DUKE
Chris Jordan
Penn State vs. Ohio State (-9'), at Indianapolis
David v. Goliath? Sure.
But today, the little guy doesn't stand a chance.
Ohio State outclasses this team, and will prove that with a dominating performance by the nation's top-ranked team should secure the dance's top seed overall.
I know the Nittany Lions are treating this as a must-win, believing they're still a bubble team and need a victory to get into the dance, but they don't have the personnel to play with Ohio State.
The Buckeyes looked sharp most of the way in yesterday's 68-61 semifinal win over Michigan, going up by as many as 18 before holding off the Wolverines.
Ohio State, which has beaten PSU impressively the last 10 times these two have met, has the depth to wear the Lions down methodically, and will pull away to cover this number.
The Buckeyes have covered four of the last six meetings, and have covered four of six overall. They roll to the Big 10 title today.
2♦ OHIO STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Penn St. vs. Ohio St. at Indianapolis
Now for today’s complimentary college basketball selection – and FYI, I’m on a 12-4 roll with college basketball free plays after scoring with Michigan plus the points vs. Ohio State – I’ll go back to the Big Ten Tournament and take the Penn State-Ohio State championship game UNDER the total.
The Nittany Lions have stayed under the total in all three of their conference tournament games so far, while Ohio State has played one “under” and one “push” (the push being yesterday’s game against Michigan, which very easily could’ve gone down as an “under”). Even if you count the Ohio State-Michigan total as a push, only one of the nine games in this tournament has gone over the total. And that one “over” – Northwestern’s 75-65 win over Minnesota on Thursday – was the only game to feature more than 130 combined points!
With its 61-48 win over Michigan State yesterday, Penn State extended a streak in which it has scored 66 points or fewer in 18 consecutive games, including 62 or less 10 times. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions’ defense has yielded just 63, 55, 33 and 48 points in the last four.
Ohio State, obviously has the more explosive offense in this contest, but against two defensive-minded opponents this weekend – Northwestern and Michigan – the Buckeyes have been held to 67 (in overtime) and 68 points. At the other end of the court, Ohio State has been flat-out dominant, allowing exactly 61 points in four of its last five games and 65 points in the other.
Add to all this the fact Penn State is playing its fourth game in four days and Ohio State is playing its third in three days, and this has all the makings of yet another Big Ten snoozer.
3♦ UNDER
Stephen Nover
Charlotte at TORONTO (-1')
Charlotte is pushing for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is a dead team. But the Raptors are going to be highly motivated for this home matchup.
That's because Toronto has a rare triple revenge.
Charlotte isn't as good as it was before having dealt Gerald Wallace, its best all-around player. The Bobcats did defeat a hot Portland team at home, 97-92, this past Friday.
Prior to that victory, however, the Bobcats had lost six in a row. The Bobcats averaged just 81.7 points and 41.5 percent shooting from the floor during those six games.
Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are back for the Bobcats, but they still lack firepower minus Wallace.
The Raptors snapped a three-game slide by defeating Indiana, 108-98, at home on Friday. The impressive thing about that win was the Raptors won by 10 despite their leading scorer, Andrea Bargnani, missing 13 of 14 shots from the field after being out with the flu.
Bargnani should have a much better game against Charlotte. The Raptors may not have Amir Johnson, who is nursing an ankle injury, but other than that they are healthy with rugged rebounder Reggie Evans back on the floor.
2♦ TORONTO
Karl Garrett
Oklahoma City (-9) at CLEVELAND
As for your comp play today, I like the Thunder to take care of the Cavaliers with ease this Sunday afternoon at the Quicken Loans Arena.
Oklahoma City has won 5 of their last 6, and they have covered in 4 of their last 6 games too. This is the start of a mini-road trip that stops in Washington tomorrow, and ends in Miami on the 16th. Very important for the Thunder to get the swing started off on the right foot, and with Cleveland reverting back to their losing ways - 3 losses in a row both straight up and against the spread - look for that to happen.
The Thunder won the season's first meeting with the Cavs 106-77, and I see no reason to beleive they can't win this meeting by the required double-digits.
Lay the road lumber with the Thunder!
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Craig Davis
Orlando (-4') at PHOENIX
We aren't sure Steve Nash is going to play... and Channing Frye is definitely out. This will hurt the Suns more than you think, as these two are the glue that holds the team together.
Orlando is coming in off a tough three-point loss to Golden State in overtime, and as they continue to chase Miami and Boston in the east, they absolutely have to win games like this.
I'm not saying Phoenix is a bad basketball team and not capable of winning, but not only are they missing a few players... they just aren't as talented as Orlando overall.
The Magic have won three of the last four in this series, covering those three wins as hefty favorites.
The Suns are in the middle of a four-game homestand, splitting the first two games by beating Houston by three but losing to Denver 116-97... they didn't cover either of those games.
Orlando has dropped three of their last four, including two of those at home. If ever a team was ready to get on the road... Orlando was.
I like the advantage the Magic have inside and I look for them to exploit that this afternoon.
The Magic will wear down the Suns in the 4th quarter, eventually winning 104-95.
3♦ ORLANDO
Bobby Maxwell
Indiana at NEW YORK (-8)
For my comp selection, the Knicks are scoring plenty of points lately, but it’s been their defense that still has some questions. Luckily for them they are playing a struggling Indiana squad today that has problems putting the ball in the basket. Go ahead and lay the chalk with New York and look for a 15-point win by the Knicks.
Indiana has lost six straight games and eight of its last nine, getting more than 100 points just three of their last nine games. The Pacers fell at Minnesota on Wednesday 101-75 as 1 ½-point ‘dogs and they lost Friday in Toronto 108-98 as one-point favorites. This team has no confidence right now and can’t find any consistency other than forward Danny Granger.
New York has won three of its last four but comes into this one off a 127-109 disaster at Dallas on Thursday night. They got 36 points from Amare Stoudemire but just 18 on 5-for-15 shooting from Carmelo Anthony. This team has scored 107 points or more in six of its last seven games and they have cashed in six of the last eight.
Against the Pacers, New York has won three of the last four and scored a 98-92 win at home back on Jan. 2 in the only matchup so far this year.
The Knicks are on ATS surges of 4-0 on Sundays, 9-1-1 after a straight-up loss, 8-3 against the Eastern Conference and 5-2-1 after a non-cover. Indiana is on quite a few ATS slides, including 1-4 on the road, 2-6 against winning teams, 1-5 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 after a straight-up loss.
Lay the points today and go with the Knicks as they will light up the scoreboard against the hapless Pacers.
3♦ NEW YORK
Joel Tyson
Indiana at NEW YORK (-8)
Now for your comp play, and it comes in the NBA where I will lay the wood with the New York Knicks to keep the Indiana Pacers reeling.
Indiana has lost 6 in a row straight up, and 5 of those 6 against the spread coming into this home-and-home with the Knickerbockers.
New York is off that Friday night loss at Dallas, but they had won and covered 3 in a row prior to that setback, and the Knicks are on a 6-2 overall spread run their last 8 games.
The Knicks have won 5 of the last 7 in the series, covering in 4 of the 7, and with the addition of Carmelo Anthony, I expect those positive series numbers to grow.
Lay it with New York today!
2♦ NEW YORK
Scott Delaney
Minnesota at GOLDEN STATE
Your comp NBA play on the Over tonight in this clash.
Plenty of intangibles point to a low-scoring game in Oakland, but something tells me these two are going on a scoring barrage tonight.
The Warriors have been involved in 200+ games in six of their last eight games, and have gone over in three of their last five.
Meanwhile, the Wolves have won two straight for the first time in more than a month, and will come out fired up for this one, looking to make it three straight.
When the Wolves are winning, they tend to gain offensive confidence, having gone over four of their last five times they're following up a win.
Golden State likes to run at home, especially if it knows it can win. There will be plenty of confidence brewing with this team.
This one goes high.
3♦ OVER
Derek Mancini
Milwaukee (+9') at BOSTON
For today's Free Play we're looking at the NBA, and one matchup specifically: Bucks vs. Celtics. Bettors everywhere are assuming that this is the game the Celtics finally "snap out of it," following back-to-back losses to Clippers and 76ers. However, I'm not convinced. Boston is playing piss-poor basketball right now, and the Bucks have really picked it up defensively (allowing just 86 ppg L5 games), and have plenty of motivation here.
What kind of motivation? Milwaukee is just a 1/2 game behind the # 8 and # 9 teams in the playoff run. Considering everything they've dealt with this season, its amazing their even talking playoffs in Milwaukee, but regardless its a huge motivator. The Celtics on the other hand, could very well be feeling the effects of the controversial trade and their current lack of depth along the frontline. It looks like they'll have Glen Davis back, but he's still undersized against Bogut.
Finally, a couple trends stood out to me: Not only is the underdog 7-1-1 ATS in this series, but Milwaukee is an outstanding 19-7-1 ATS in their L28 games vs. Boston! Given the way the Celtics are playing right now, and their lack of size upfront, this is going to be a much tougher match up than expected. Will the Celtics bounce back for a SU win? Probably. Do they cover the bloated spread in the process? No. Take Milwaukee plus the points over Boston Sunday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
VEGAS EXPERTS
Penn State at Ohio State
Play: Ohio State
Now that Penn State has all in likelihood earned itself a NCAA Tournament berth, we look for Cinderella's glass slipper to fall off as Ohio State looks to clinch the #1 overall seed in the Big Dance. Last meeting was decided by 21 points.
Wunderdog
Dayton vs. Richmond
Play: Under 126
Dayton is averaging just 63.8 per game over their last five games, while holding opponents to 61.4. They are 8-6 UNDER on the road this season and 12-6 UNDER in conference play. Richmond is 10-7 UNDER on the road and they are also an UNDER team in conference games. The Spiders are holding teams to a ridiculous 53.6 per game over their last five. When taking to the road after 2+ straight UNDERs as they are here, Richmond is a perfect 7-0 UNDER the past two seasons. They are also 16-5 UNDER on the road in their last 21 following back-to-back games in which they allowed 60 or less. Under head coach Brian Gregory, the Flyers are 40-28 UNDER to a total in the 120s. Take the UNDER here.