Derek Mancini
Utah (+1') at OKLAHOMA CITY
Always tough to beat a team three straight times in a season, especially when that team is jockeying for playoff position. Utah is vying for home court in the 1st round of playoffs, and in a game against their potential opponent tonight, look for them to make a statement in this contest.
Jazz have already lost twice to Oklahoma City, and a loss here would give the Thunder even more confidence going into the postseason. More importantly, OKC would claim the potential tiebreaker, and we all know how badly the Jazz need (and want) the home court advantage.
Strong trend pointing to the Jazz, with the underdog grabbing the cash 13 of their L18 meetings! The visitor has also been profitable, going 6-2 ATS in their L8 match ups. Jazz are also 15-5-1 ATS in their L21 road games!
Grab the points with Utah, as they make a statement in this potential first round playoff match up with Oklahoma City. Both of these teams have been great since the All-Star Break, but the Jazz need this one more.
3♦ UTAH
MTi Sports
Charlotte Bobcats at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
The Magic have won eight straight and the Bobcats have won five straight. A key issue is the loss of Gerald Wallace in the Bobcats latest win. Wallace is indeed a key player for the Bobcats, but they catch the Magic in a soft spot, so well grab the inflated number.
Orlando is off a 109-95 win over the Wizards in which they trailed 35-20 early in the second quarter. The Magic shot 51.9% for the game, with Dwight Howard going 11-for-13 from the field for 28 points. It was the second straight game that the Magic shot over 50% from the field and this is relevant because Orlando is 0-5 ATS (-15.4 ppg) at home when they shot at least 50% from the field in each of their last two games with their only SU win by a 88-86 score laying 12?.
Also, the Magic are 0-6-1 ATS (-7.4 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest off a road win in which they trailed by 10+ points. Grab the points.
Jack Jones
Miami Heat -6.5
The Miami Heat are set up to crush the 76ers at home tonight. Miami is allowing just 93.5 points/game at home this season against teams that normally score 100.3 points/game, so they are nearly 7 points better than their opponent's average. Philly gives up 102.0 points/game on the road this season against teams that normally score 99.9 points/game. The 76ers are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games, scoring 96 or less points in 7 of those contests. They have given up 100 or more points in 7 of those games as well. Philly is finding it very hard to get motivated to playing anyone right now considering they are out of the playoff chase. Miami is squarely in the Eastern Conference playoff race with much more to play for, so it's pretty easy to back them at home here. The Heat are surging, winning 5 of their last 6 games overall, including 5 straight home victories where they have scored 100 or more points in every contest.
This play also falls under a system that is 100-52 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. Bet Miami.
John Ryan
New Orleans Hornets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: New Orleans Hornets +9.5
5* graded play on New Orleans as they face Phoenix on the road in NBA action set to start at 9:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that that the Hornets will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 101-56 ATS since 2004. Play against home favorites in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams attempting >=82 shots/game and are good ball handling teams committing <=14.5 TOPG against a poor pressure defensive team forcing <=14.5 TOPG. Model projects that NO will score between 99 and 104 points. Note that in past games scoring within this range No is a solid 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix has not always done well against similar teams like NO. Note that over the past 3 seasons Phoenix is just 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% of their games. Take New Orleans.
Info Plays
3* on Mississippi State +7
Reasons why Mississippi State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. This is a 104-56 ATS System hitting 65% over the last 5 seasons. The Bulldogs are fighting for their postseason lives, and the Wildcats are not going to run away with this one. Bet Mississippi State in the SEC Championship.
Black Widow
1* on Ohio State -4
Minnesota's miracle run to the Big Ten Championship comes to an abrupt end Sunday. Ohio State is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall, and Evan Turner will not let this team lose right now. He put up 31 in a valiant effort against Illinois yesterday, a day after he hit a buzzer-beat to knock off the Wolverines. This is a completely different team with Turner, the National Player of the Year. Ohio State won their last meeting with Minnesota, 85-63. Though we aren't expecting this game to be as lopsided, we do expect the Buckeyes to win and to cover this small spread. The Golden Gophers are 0-6 ATS in the third game of a 3-in-5 days situation. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Ohio State and lay the points.