Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday March, 18

NCAAB

Cincinnati vs. Florida State
The Seminoles look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Florida State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-2)

Game 717-718: Creighton vs. North Carolina (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 65.672; North Carolina 72.853
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 164
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (+8 1/2); Over

Game 719-720: Lehigh vs. Xavier (7:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 59.896; Xavier 65.511
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 5 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Xavier by 3; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-3); Under

Game 721-722: NC State vs. Georgetown (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.563; Georgetown 71.741
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 6; 136
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-4); Over

Game 723-724: St. Louis vs. Michigan State (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 67.889; Michigan State 75.990
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 8; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Cincinnati vs. Florida State (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 68.051; Florida State 71.681
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Florida State by 2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-2); Over

Game 727-728: Ohio vs. South Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 65.860; South Florida 65.886
Dunkel Line: Even; 120
Vegas Line: South Florida by 3; 114
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over

Game 729-730: Norfolk State vs. Florida (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 53.658; Florida 65.465
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12; 139
Vegas Line: Florida by 14 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+14 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Purdue vs. Kansas (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 68.071; Kansas 76.839
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9; 147
Vegas Line: Kansas by 7 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: Northern Iowa at Drexel (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 58.088; Drexel 69.779
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 11 1/2; 116
Vegas Line: Drexel by 6 1/2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-6 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: Bucknell at Nevada (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.925; Nevada 61.426
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 1; 137
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3); Over

Game 737-738: Iowa at Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 63.368; Oregon 72.955
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 9 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Oregon by 7; 155
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-7); Under

Game 739-740: USC Upstate at Old Dominion (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC Upstate 54.402; Old Dominion 65.040
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 10 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 8; 133
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-8); Over

Game 741-742: Manhattan at Fairfield (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.943; Fairfield 62.745
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 9; 128
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-5); Under

Game 743-744: Weber State at Loyola Marymount (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.358; Loyola Marymount 58.579
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 2; 149
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 4; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+4); Over

Sharky Sports

Michigan State -7

I'm a big fan of this St. Louis ball squad and the job tremendous job that Coach Majerus has done with his boys this year. As is typical with all St. Louis teams of the past, this team is tremendously disciplined and fundamental on both the offensive and defensive ends. Defensively, St. Louis switches between a few different looks, and I expect them to be in a sort of match-up zone for most of this game tomorrow to try to balance out Mich St's size and athleticism. Offensively, they run a sort of "flex" offense, playing inside-out with their prominent big man Conklin and rely on timely drives from their explosive guard Kwamain Mitchell. The reason this team was so effective this year and lived up to their high expectations has been the unprecedented improvement of Conklin down low, as he's become a true force in the paint. Conklin is not an athletically-gifted player, nor does he stand out physically at only 6'6'' 230 lbs. However, he is one of those players who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He is very fundamental with his post moves and knows how to score against bigger opponents, while also being a solid passer. With his effectiveness down low, teams throughout the season have had to focus on him, which has really opened up the outside shot for St. Louis, which is a team that heavily relies on the three as a go-to option in the flow of their offense (36% of all of their field goals are three's). However, this should all change against Michigan State, and I expect the 3rd ranked defense in the country to really give this team fits. The main reason I anticipate St. Louis struggling on offense has to do with the extraordinary size and physicality of Michigan State down low. Anyone who has seen them play knows how huge they are underneath between Green, Payne, Nix, etc. Conklin has never faced such a long and athletic team in the A-10, and I think their physicality will really force him farther and farther from the basket therefore making him less and less effective. With Conklin's efficiency reduced, the rest of the defense will be able to close out on shooters because they won't have to focus as much on double teams down low, and this has been the case all season for Mich St as they always dominate the glass and are stellar at defending the three (opponents are only shooting 29% from downtown). Mich State is coming off a poor performance at guarding the three in their first round win against LIU (letting them shoot 8-17 from beyond the arc), so I expect Izzo to clamp down here. Remember, Izzo is one of the best of all time at making adjustments from game to game. On offense, Mich St should be able to execute normally, as St. Louis's defense isn't one to cause many fits for offenses. Overall, this is a very tough stylistic spot for St. Louis, who isn't used to the physicality, speed, length, and athleticism of Michigan State. I think they struggle on offense and Michigan State cruises. I capped this as a double digit win for the Spartans.

Georgetown -4

This line is very interesting. Vegas comes out with Georgetown as -3.5 favorites to Belmont and pretty much the exact same line here. In my opinion, NC State is a much better match-up against Georgetown than Belmont was, but still I think NC State is not getting nearly enough points here. NC State is directly opposite of Belmont in some crucial areas. What Belmont lacked in size and physicality down low, NC State more than makes up with the likes of CJ Leslie, Richard Howell, and DeShawn Painter. NC State heavily relies on pounding the ball inside to these guys and letting them work. CJ Leslie is their best player, but the other big men are no joke. This NC State team is definitely solid from downtown, however this is not a focal part of their offense as less than 1/4 of their field goals are three's and Scott Wood is the only real threat out there for them. NC State has relied on their size, physicality, and skill down low to get through a tough ACC schedule, however when your game plan is to feed the bigs, one of the last teams you want to play in the country is Georgetown, who is just as big, strong, and long down low as NC State with Sims and Porter. However, it is not just the big men for Gtown that play big, but the team in general as they have one of the biggest starting line-ups in the country from positions 1-5 and they are one of the few teams in the country with 5 players averaging 4 or more rebounds per game. With less emphasis on the three (and don't get me wrong, Gtown would love to see NC State hoist some three's as they are the #1 three point defenders in the country), Georgetown will focus even more on guarding the bigs and rebounding. Thompson really has his boys focused on defense first and foremost this tournament. Part of the reason that this Georgetown team is so impressive defensively is that their length at all positions really frustrates offenses as they always contest every shot. I think NC State will be out of rhythm offensively unless they get Georgetown bigs into early foul trouble. Offensively, Georgetown has been looking as fluid as ever. Their patience, the back-door cuts they run off of the high flare by Sims, and the ability to keep the defense honest with some knock down three point shooters makes them multi-dimensional. Georgetown likes to control pace and play deliberately, but they also have the athletes to get into a track meet if the tempo calls for this. Overall, I think Georgetown will be too much for NC State here offensively and mostly defensively. I capped this as an 8 point win for the Hoyas.

Marc Lawrence

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

The Heat host the Magic in an NBA Southeast Division showdown Sunday evening looking to avenge a 104-98 overtime loss suffered in Orlando five days ago. That sets the table for tonight's play as Miami is 3-1 SU and ATS when seeking same season loss revenge this season while Orlando is 2-4 ATS away form the Magic Kingdom against same season avenging foes this campaign. With the Heat 15-8 SU and ATS at hoe off a win in this series when playing off a win, including 5-1 SU and ATS when they own a .700 or better win percentage, we'll party with the boys from South Beach here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

MTi Sports

Magic at Heat
Play: Under

The Magic are 0-10 OU (-12.1 ppg) after a win at home in which Jason Richardson was not the Magic's high scorer and the Heat are 0-4 OU (-17.2 ppg) after a win on the road in which Dwyane Wade had a double double. As a team, Orlando is The Magic are 0-10 OU (-14.4 ppg) on the road with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. Miami is 0-7 OU (-12.9 ppg) at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a favorite in which they led by double digits. Take this one UNDER.

Vegas Experts

Ohio at South Florida
Play: South Florida

Bad news for the Bobcats of Ohio University here as 13-seeds are 1-8 all-time vs. 12 seeded counterparts following last year's loss by Morehead State to Richmond. USF is a tremendous defensive team, holding foes to an average of just 56.4 points per game. Incredibly, the Bulls have held 11 of their last 12 opponents to 35% shooting or worse. Cal and Temple combined for just 96 points in South Florida's two tourney games so far. Look for the Bulls to put the clamps down on Ohio's three-point shooting.

Rob Vinciletti

Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -6.5

The Suns play this one with Triple revenge here tonight. Houston is coming in off a loss to the Clippers yesterday in a game they blew late. What we want to do is play against road dogs of 5 or more with no rest that scored 90 or more vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more if both teams had 25 or more assists in their last game. These road teams are 1-14 straight up and 3-12 to the spread. Houston has lost and failed to cover every time this season on the road with no rest off a road game vs an opponent who played at home and Phoenix has covered both times at home with rest as a home favorite of -5 or more. Plus the 4 teams traveling in to Phoenix with no rest off a road game have failed to cover three times. Look for Phoenix to serve up revenge tonight.

Ben Burns

Capitals @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5.5

he Capitals last played here almost exactly two years ago. That 3/14/2010 game opened with an O/U of 6.5o42 and was actually bet up to 7u30. Much has changed in the NHL in two years and also for these two teams. The O/U line is now 5.5. Given the current form of the both clubs, I still feel that's generously high.

Off a 3-2 loss at Winnipeg on Friday, the Capitals have now seen six of their last nine games produce five or fewer combined goals.

Off a 4-1 Friday win at Dallas and still playing without sniper Jonathan Toews, the Hawks have now seen nine of their last 13 games produce five or fewer combined goals.

With the "under" at 6-1-1 the Caps' last eight visits to Chicago, consider the UNDER 5.5 goals.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Coyotes @ Oilers
PICK: Under 5.5

Phoenix is 35-26-11 (17-14-5 on the road). Edmonton is 28-36-7 (18-15-4 at home). The last time these teams played, Phoenix beat the Oilers 3-1 in Edmonton on February 25th, 2012.

Last time out the Coyotes lost 4-1 at Calgary on Thursday. For the time being, Phoenix remains in front of the Flames in the Western Conference; “We’re ahead of them in the standings and they’re trying to catch us,” captain Shane Doan said. “We understand that they’re going to come with desperation and we need to be more desperate than that and we weren’t.” Goaltender Mike Smith made just 15-saves. “This is desperation time,” echoed coach Dave Tippett. “For us to come out and play a game like that is unacceptable for our group.”

The following the night the Oilers handed the Flames a 3-1 loss at Rexall Place. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored twice; “It was huge for us to win this game,” Nugent-Hopkins said. “It’s as close to a playoff game as we are going to have this year. It was a lot of fun playing in a game like that. There was so much intensity and emotion out there.” It was his team's second win in a row.

Edmonton is out of the playoff picture, but it's obvious from Nugent-Hopkins' tone that he and the Oilers are relishing their role as spoiler, and would love nothing more than to do to Phoenix, what they did to Calgary. I believe we'll see a very similar overall effort in tonight's game as well.

Phoenix is jockeying for playoff position, and it's obvious from Tippet's tone that he's feeling the pressure. With games at Dallas, vs. Colorado, at San Jose, vs. St. Louis, vs. San Jose and vs. Anaheim to close the month, a letdown here could prove fatal to this team's postseason chances. I expect the Coyotes to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes this evening.

I think you'll agree with me that this one sets up as a low-scoring game!

David Chan

Washington @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis -12.5

I bet value where I see it and expect the home side to lay the hammer down tonight.

The Wizards are 10-33 and are coming off a 102-88 loss at Atlanta on Friday.

Trevor Booker led the way with 18-points; John Wall had 14-points and nine-assists; Roger Mason chipped in 12-points.

Consistency has obviously been an issue all year for the Wizards, and scoring just 34 second-half points prompted coach Randy Wittman to remark:

“We were two totally different teams that first and second half,” said Wittman. “We threw the ball all over the place,” he continued. “Dribble, dribble, dribble. We all took turns just dribbling the ball.”

The Grizzlies on the other hand are 24-18, and have lost two straight, most recently a lacklustre 114-110 overtime effort to Toronto on Friday.

Marc Gasol led the charge with a season-high 28-points; Rudy Gay added 26-points and 11-rebounds.

It was Zach Randolph's first game in 2.5-months, and the big man poured in 25-points and grabbed nine-boards; OJ Mayo finished with 10-points.

Memphis struggled in many facets of the game, but most obviously from the charity-stripe, going just 31 of 51 overall.

But with nine of its next 11 contests on the road starting on Tuesday, and sitting in eighth spot in the West, Memphis needs to pick up some momentum, which makes tonight's game a "must win" in my estimation.

Note that Memphis guards' Mike Conley and Tony Allen combine for 4.3 steals a game; and that's bad news for Wall who had nine turnovers himself in Friday's loss.

The Wizards are 0-12 on the road this year vs. teams with winning records; expect this strong trend to continue as the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Jack Jones

Miami Heat -8½

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated to beat the Orlando Magic Sunday. Miami has lost two of their three meetings with the Magic this season, so there's no question the Heat are going to want this one more.

This play falls into a system that is 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Orlando is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Miami is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Heat Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Heat -8½

The Heat lost by 6 points in overtime in Orlando Tuesday so you can bet they'll be out for some serious revenge tonight. The Heat dominated the first half of the game, building a 14-point advantage, before coming out flat in the third quarter. Motivated by that torturous loss and playing at home, where it defeated the Magic by 12 points last month, expect Miami to take care of business.

The Magic are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 3-0 ATS this season. Take the Heat.

Freddy Wills

Ohio vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -2½

Ohio may still be the under dog but this South Florida team really thinks of themselves as a Cinderella team being one of the last 4 in. They have some real rhythm going right now and Ohio will have their hands full trying to score. In fact they are just 5-10 ATS this year when scoring less than 70 points. There is a good chance that happens as only two opponents have score more than 70 on South Florida and those games came on the road @Kansas and @Georgetown. I see the Bulls moving on here with that great defense.

Tony George

Michigan State -7

The frontcourt simply too much for the Billikens here. Tom Izzo knows how to coach this time of season, I say it all the time. Rick Majerus coaches St Louis, and he is proven coach, but this is a #1 seed with lots of firepower, shooting 52% from the floor and 43% from 3 point range in their last 5 games, who beat Wisconsin by 13 and Ohio State by 4 to win the Big 10 championship, both those teams still alive in this tourney, and quite frankly have the talent advantage against a solid St Louis team. At days end MSU pulls away late, simply too much down low for St Louis.

Dave Cokin

Saint Louis vs Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State

You won't find a better coached team than St. Louis and the ability of Rick Majerus to come up with a great game plan is a concern here. But the Billikens might simply be overwhelmed physically by Michigan State and the Spartans will play much smarter than Memphis did on Friday. I'll go with the Michigan State side.