Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 20,2011

Marc Lawrence

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: New York Knicks

The Knicks battle the Bucks in Milwaukee Sunday afternoon looking to bounce back up off the carpet from an upset loss at Detroit Friday evening. New York enters today's fray knowing they are 24-9-1 ATS in games when not laying points this season, including 10-2 when facing a foe off a double-digit victory. On the flip side the Bucks are 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS this campaign in games when playing off a double-digit victory. With that, look for the boys from the Big Apple to take a bite out of the Bucks here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

MTi Sports

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 9-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss in which Andre Miller was not the Trailblazers' high scorer. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-11.1 ppg) at home when Ron Artest scored fewer than 10 points the last two and 0-6 ATS (-12.2 ppg) THIS season at home after a win in which Kobe Bryant played fewer than 30 minutes. Grab the points.

Matt Fargo

George Mason vs. Ohio State
Play: George Mason +11

Ohio St. was favored by fewer points in the final two games of the Big Ten Tournament against Michigan and Penn St. than it is against George Mason. That may seem appropriate considering the strength of the conferences however the Patriots have a higher RPI than both of those teams, 26 compared to 40 and 51. That shows the mid-majors are not getting the respect they deserve and George Mason already showed in the first round that it can play with and defeat the big conference teams. As a rebuttal, it can be argued that Villanova was not nearly as good as some people though and I can't disagree as it ended the season with a six-game losing streak. Nevertheless, the Patriots took control when they needed to. They held the Wildcats to just 36.5 percent shooting and 57 points, the second fewest amount of points Villanova has scored all season long against a team not named Pittsburgh. Had George Mason hit its free throws, the game may not have even been that close at the end. This is taking nothing away from Ohio St. as it is the number one overall seed for a reason. The Buckeyes won both the regular season and tournament championships in the Big Ten but they have been involved in a lot of close games this season and its 3-2 record against the RPI Top 25 is pretty average. George Mason is not part of that group by they are just one slot out by just .0014 points so it can certainly qualify. Ohio St. is 6-0 ATS as a single-digit chalk but just 10-13 ATS when laying double-digits. George Mason is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season and it has not been more than a six-point underdog all season so there is definitely value no matter who the opponent. The Patriots are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record including 9-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. Ohio St. meanwhile despite covering its opener against Texas-San Antonio is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. 3* George Mason Patriots

Craig Trapp

Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -5

We were all over FSU last game but they are not playing a bad A&M team instead they are playing the most experienced team in the tourney. Hansborough and company will be knocking down threes and spreading out the big men of FSU all day long. Too much talent on ND as they lay the wood on SUNDAY

SEAN MURPHY

Kent State @ Fairfield
PICK: Fairfield -4

We cashed with Fairfield in its win at Colorado State in the opening round of the NIT, and we'll go right back to the well when the Stags return home to host Kent State on Sunday.

Fairfield fell flat in the MAAC Tournament, dropping an ugly decision against St. Peter's, on its home floor no less. However, any concerns of a letdown were erased in Tuesday's gutsy road win. The fact that the Stags had more than a week off prior to the start of the NIT certainly worked in their favor.

Kent State pulled off an upset of its own in the opening round of this tournament, taking down St. Mary's as an 11-point underdog. Keep in mind, the Gaels were ripe for the picking after being left out of the NCAA Tournament field just two days earlier. An appearance in the NIT was little consolation for a team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last year.

Golden Flashes head coach Geno Ford had this to say following the win, "To beat St. Mary's, and at their place, is a great win for our program. It's probably our best win of the season."

That quote really says it all. I won't be one bit surprised if Kent State suffers a major letdown, hitting the road for the second straight game, just a week removed from that heart-breaking overtime loss to Akron in the MAC championship.

Only one other time this season have the Golden Flashes gone on the road in their next game following an outright underdog win away from home. The result was a 79-54 beatdown in Buffalo back on January 19th. It's not as if they're playing better basketball now - that loss in January came in the midst of an 8-1 run.

Kent State was able to take advantage of an awful defensive effort by St. Mary's last time out, but won't have the benefit of facing another disinterested group here. Note that Fairfield is one of the most efficient defensive teams in the nation, holding its opposition to 57.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting this season.

Fairfield advanced to the second round of the CIT last March, but suffered a blowout loss at Creighton. They're in a more favorable situation this time around, playing on their home floor, where they're 13-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in lined games this season. As a home favorite of six points or less, the Stags are a perfect 3-0 ATS.

Despite Tuesday's win, Kent State remains an awful bet outside of the MAC. The Golden Flashes are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 lined non-conference games. This is a tough spot, traveling across the country for the second time in less than a week, and going up against a well-coached, veteran Stags squad. Take Fairfield.

Scott Spreitzer

Washington @ North Carolina
PICK: North Carolina -4.5

This is a bad matchup for Lorenzo Romar's Huskies. Washington wants to play at a quick pace. They're looking to get out in a hurry, releasing quickly, then finishing up strong on the offensive end. This plays right into what the Tar Heels like doing best. North Carolina is as good as anyone in an uptempo game. The Heels are averaging over 77 ppg. But the team is also strong on the other end of the floor. North Carolina has held their opponents to 40.3% shooting, which ranks 35th in the nation. They allow just 32.4% from the arc. And the Tar Heels are fantastic on the glass, averaging 42.9 rpg, with an average rebound margin per game of +10.2! Tough for an uptempo team to "release" when they're not dominating on the glass, and that may be Washington's biggest hurdle in this matchup. As far as I'm concerned, the most talented newcomer in college basketball plays for Roy Williams. Harrison Barnes is that player and he has been a terror over the last two months. Ty Zeller gives the team outstanding leadership, and John Henson is simply nasty on the boards. I enjoy Washington's style, no doubt. But it's that particular style that'll cost them in this one. I'm laying the points with North Carolina.

Scott Rickenbach

Wichita State @ Virginia Tech
PICK: Virginia Tech -5

The Shockers are off of a huge 76-49 win over Nebraska in NIT action but that game was at Wichita State. Now the Shockers must take to the road as an underdog and note that Wichita State is 5-20 straight-up their last 25 games in the underdog role. That said, we’ll gladly lay the small number here with the Hokies. Wichita State has a very impressive straight-up record this season but they come from the weaker Missouri Valley Conference and they now face an ACC foe that is “battle tested” to say the least. Having played the likes of teams like North Carolina and Duke, Virginia Tech will certainly be ready for the Shockers here and the Hokies have said all along they have their eyes on the big prize in this NIT Tourney. After getting over the initial disappointment of not making the big dance, the Hokies responded by blowing out Bethune Cookman on Wednesday. Virginia Tech is well coached under Seth Greenberg and they truly “want this” when it comes to winning this NIT Tournament. Wichita State’s first win in this tournament came by a 27 point margin but they made 11 of 26 three pointers while the Cornhuskers made just 2 of 18 three pointers. Neither one of those stats are likely to repeat here as the Shockers visit Blacksburg. Look for the Hokies to improve to 40-11 in home games the last three seasons and, in doing so, look for them to also chalk up another ATS victory! Consider a small play on Virginia Tech minus the points in early Sunday NIT action!

LARRY NESS

Arizona @ Texas
PICK: Over 138.5

Texas and Arizona, two perennial NCAA tourney participants square off with identical 28-7 records. The Pac 10's three Big Dance reps (not counting USC) all advanced out of the first round but none of those three match the quality of the top-two of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas. We saw UCLA struggle in its 73-65 loss to Florida in round two and now we’ll see if Washington (vs North Carolina) and Arizona (here vs Texas) are up to tasting some ‘sweetness.’ The Wildcats had all sorts of trouble with the speed of Memphis and if Pastner hadn’t “called off the dogs,” Arizona would have already been heading home. Arizona’s “one-man gang,” 6-0 sophomore Derrick Williams (19.2-8.2 on 61.3% shooting) led the Wildcats with 22 points and 10 rebounds vs Memphis and it was his last-second block which sealed the win. Streaky sophomore guard Momo Jones (9.8) had 18 points vs Memphis but on the season, Williams is Arizona’s lone double-digit scorer. Texas may not be as quick as Memphis (few teams are) but the Longhorns own great athletes in 6-7 sophomore guard Hamilton (18.7-7.7) plus freshman guard Joseph (10.5-3.6-3.0) and 6-8 “I’m coming back for another year” freshman Tristan Thompson (13.4-7.9). The backcourt also features vets Brown (10.1), Balbay (4.1) and Lucas (3.2) plus 6-7 senior forward Johnson (once a highly-touted freshman himself), has had his best season at Texas, averaging 11.4-6.8. Williams’ starting frontcourt partners are the 6-6 Hill (7.8-4.5) and the 6-7 Perry (6.5-4.4) with the 6-7 Horne (6.3-3.3) coming off the bench. Fogg (8.1) joins Jones in the starting backcourt with Parrom (7.9) getting plenty of minutes. While Williams is the team's lone double digit scorer, Arizona scores, averaging 76.5 PPG on 47.0% shooting (including 39.6% on threes). The Wildcats couldn't ‘buy’ a three-point shot vs Memphis (5-of-19, 26.3%), so expect that to change, here. Texas defends well (61.9 PPG on 38.6% shooting, including just 28.8% on threes) but like Arizona, scores 75.2 PPG. Even though the Wildcats shot poorly vs Memphis, that game finished 77-75, about 12 points over the total. As for Texas in round one, the Longhorns beat Oakland 85-81 without getting a special effort out of any of its stars. Expect both of these teams to approach or exceed their seasonal averages, which means the play is OVER!

Tom Stryker

Florida State @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame -5

The Fighting Irish have won 13 of their last 15 games and suffered only two losses over a span of nearly two months. Needless to say, the Dame is playing phenomenal basketball and they'll come out with their best effort with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.

Florida State enters this game off a nice upset win over Texas A&M in the first round. Now, for an encore performance, the Seminoles will bring their No. 1-ranked field-goal percentage defense to the floor on Sunday night and try to slow down or stop a Notre Dame offense that knows how to put points on the board.

This isn't the greatest technical spot for the 'Noles either. According to my college basketball database, NCAA Tournament second round teams are a woeful 37-62 SU and 37-59-3 ATS provided they check in off three or more pointspread wins. If our "play against" side destroyed the Las Vegas line by seven or more last, this situation crashes to a nasty 17-39-2 ATS!

In the second round of the NCAA Tournament, teams coming off a pointspread loss have produced a reliable 73-54 ATS record provided they are matched up against an opponent that arrives off an ATS win. If our "play on side scoots in off two or more pointspread losses, this angle tightens up to a superb 48-31 ATS. Head coach Mike Brey's troops apply to this system and the tightener.

Florida State's victory over Texas A&M was its first NCAA Tournament victory in 13 years. Defensively, the Seminoles are strong. However, this Fighting Irish bunch is led by five seniors that don't get rattled and know how to put points on the board. Watch the Dame play relaxed here and advance. Take Notre Dame. T

BIG AL

Golden State @ Dallas
PICK: Golden State +9.5

Over the previous eight days, the Mavericks had two huge games -- both at home -- vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs. And they lost both, 96-91 to L.A., and 97-91 to the Spurs. Neither game was as close as the final scores indicate, as Los Angeles held Dallas at arm's length for much of the last three quarters, and the Spurs were up by double digits for much of their game. Dallas now has virtually no chance of catching Los Angeles for the No. 2 seed out west, and is actually much more likely to fall to No. 4 behind Oklahoma City, which has won six straight games. The Mavs have failed to cover seven of nine overall, and can't be trusted to lay this many points to a Warriors squad that plays hard every game. Take Golden State.

Patrick Webb

Marquette vs. Syracuse
Play: Under 140½

I love the Under in this match up of conference foes- The Under is 12-2 in Marquette's last 14 games vs. Big East competition and 7-0 following a win for Marquette. These two teams combined for 146 points earlier in the midst of the conference season the last game of a four game losing streak for Syracuse- since that stretch Syracuse has allowed only 3 opponents in 13 games to score over 70 points and have held 7 opponents to 60 or below. Marquette has held 10 of their last 12 opponents below 70 points. Neither of these teams are incredibly explosive from three, and both get the majority of points from 2 point field goals. These teams are similar in TO%, pace and eFG%. I look for a defensive struggle between two teams that have met at least once in the last 5 seasons.

EZWINNERS

Duke Blue Devils -11.5

Michigan has been playing very well and beat the hell out of Tennessee in their last game, but I don't like the way they match up with the Dukies. Michigan was impressive against the Vols, but that was a Tennessee team that was dealing with a lot of distractions and pretty much mailed it in. Tennessee was a big team that couldn’t shoot while Duke is a big team that can shoot. Michigan also struggles in the rebounding department. They put in a huge effort to battle Tennessee on the boards, but With so much height in the front court it should come as no surprise that Duke is a good rebounding team and they are great on the offensive glass where they rank 2nd in the ACC. I think there is too much of a gap in talent in this game and I look for the Dukies to roll into the Sweet Sixteen. Lay the points.

CAJUN SPORTS

Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Detroit Pistons +7

The boys from the Motor City travel south for a meeting against the Hawks of ATL. The Pistons have struggled on the road straight up this season but they have done all right covering the number on the road as an underdog going 19-15 ATS. They are a much better road underdog than the Hawks are a home favorite; Atlanta is just 9-20 ATS when favored at home. These teams have gone in opposite directions in the scoring department over their last five games. Detroit is averaging 101 points per game their last five games (103.4 points per game L11 games) while Atlanta has seen their scoring production fall to 89.3 points per game over their last five contests. The Hawks scoring issues are even more pervasive as we see they are only averaging 88.3 points per game over their last fifteen contests, they will certainly need more production on the offensive end today to cover such a large number. A quick check of the database reveals several strong tech sets that support our play on the Pistons here are just a few. Atlanta is 11-22 ATS coming off a home game this season. The Hawks have also struggled when coming off a home loss, as they are 0-8 ATS in home games off a home loss this season and 5-21 ATS off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. These particular Birds have not done a good job of rebounding from a home loss even if it was an embarrassing blowout loss, as our tech set would indicate. One final note Detroit has recently had the upper hand in this series going 5-2 against the number the last seven meetings. Take the points here as the Detroit Pistons give the Atlanta Hawks all they can stand on Sunday afternoon in ATL.

JAMES PATRICK SPORTS

Marquette vs. Syracuse

Marquette Golden Eagles HC Buzz Williams' highly-combative bunch has been a very profitable underdog, posting a (13-3) its last (16) in that preferred role. It's a Big East Showdown in Cleveland and we'll grab the points with Marquette Golden Eagles as Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NCAA complimentary selection.