SPORTS WAGERS
George Mason +11½ over Ohio State
The Patriots receiving 11½-points is simply way too many. It’s not like George Mason beat Cal Santa Barbara, they beat a game Villanova squad that shot lights out in the first half. GMU made all the right adjustments, played an outstanding second half and here they are once again. Mason has a defensive profile that matches up very well with the Buckeyes' offensive strategy. In fact, the Patriots will be the best defensive opponent that Ohio State has faced all season. OSU might be the best team in the nation and it’s going to take a near flawless effort for the Patriots to even have a chance but we're not asking them to win. Jared Sullinger is a beast on the low blocks and if you choose to crowd Sullinger, then seniors Jon Diebler and David Lighty, along with junior William Buford and freshman snipers Aaron Craft and Deshaun Thomas, will beat you with 3-pointers. However, OSU’s last three wins prior to putting a beating on a nothing San Antonio team in the opener, came against Penn St. by 11, Michigan by 7 and Northwestern by 6 in OT. Surely, the Patriots can stay within this range too and will use this very disrespectful line to motivate them even more. Play: George Mason +11½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Florida St +5/+197 over Notre Dame
The Seminoles defense is one of, if not the best in the land. Leonard Hamilton believes in suffocating man-to-man D and hitting the glass with everything you've got. If a player doesn't share Hamilton's belief system, then he sits. His players have clearly gotten the message, as the Seminoles led the ACC in field-goal percentage defense (.365) and blocked shots (167) and ranked second in steals (8.9 per game) during the regular season. This is also an experienced team with great resilience and it sure doesn’t hurt that Chris Singleton is back and has a game under his belt. With a defense like that, FSU always has a chance to beat anyone and the Irish are no exception. Notre Dame’s 13-point opening round win over the Sycamores was anything but impressive. Indiana State went cold for long stretches and while the Irish led by 10-12 most of the way, they couldn’t put the Sycamores away for good. The Irish need open shots to win because they rarely make them when being pressured and that’s going to be a huge problem here. The Seminoles last two losses were to the Tar Heels by a bucket and to West Virginia by a single point. That’s even more proof how difficult it is to put this team away and chances are the Irish won’t either. Seminoles outright. Play: Florida State +5 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1). Play: Florida State +197 (Risking 1 unit).
Purdue –9 over Va Commonwealth
The CAA is well represented in this year’s field with three teams, George Mason, Old Dominion and these Rams. Thing is, VCU lost to ODU by 11 and 15 points and they lost to the Patriots by 20 on Feb 15. The Rams 18-point win over the Hoyas has them overvalued here and that’s something we can take advantage of. Georgetown stumbled to the finish line with five straight losses and six losses in its last seven games and it carried over into the postseason in a dreadful looking performance. Fact is VCU takes a lot of low percentage shots. They ranked an alarming 301st in the country in rebounding and unless those shots are falling, the Boilermakers are going to get a lot of easy buckets. Purdue won nine of its last 11 games and included in that span was a 13-point win over the Buckeyes. Matt Painter, the 2011 Big Ten Coach of the Year, can X-and-O with the best of them. He has produced five consecutive 20-win seasons at Purdue and has been named Big Ten Coach of the Year three times in the past four seasons and the Boilermakers play a strong defensive game. This game is in Chicago, which is driving distance from Indiana and thus, you can expect strong Purdue support in this game. Not that they’ll need it but it sure doesn’t hurt. Many insiders suggested that the Rams didn’t belong in this year’s event and you’ll see why here. Play: Purdue –9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Syracuse -4.5
Marquette may won the regular season meeting, but Syracuse appears poised for revenge. The Orange are playing the better basketball of the two teams right now, which has me feeling good about their chances to get the win and cover Sunday. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points looking to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are playing their 2nd away game in 3 days, are 72-32 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this system, which is 9-3 ATS this season, are winning by an average of 7.9 points. The Orange are coming off a cover as a double-digit favorite and they have been pure gold in this scenario. In fact, Syracuse is a deadly 23-6 ATS in its last 29 when playing away from home following an ATS victory in a game in which it was laying 10 points or more. The Orange are winning these contests by an average of 8.8 points. It is also worth noting that the Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Look for Jim Boeheim's boys to take care of the Golden Eagles here. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -9
Golden St is 30-39 straight up this year. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games. Golden St is 1-4 ATS off a straight loss by more than 10 points. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS their last their last 5 games vs. Western Conference teams. Dallas is 48-21 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 13-6 ATS their last 19 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. Dallas is 6-2 ATS vs. NBA Pacific teams. The Mavericks are 5-1-2 ATS on SUNDAY!
JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / ATLANTA HAWKS
TAKE: DETROIT PISTONS
The Atlanta Hawks have little to worry about when it comes to making the playoffs. They are in 5th place right now in the Eastern Conference, three-games ahead of 6th place Philadelphia. However, what the Hawks DO need to be concerned about is their recent play. Atlanta is 2-6 S/U in its last eight games. Bettors haven't fared much better, going 2-6 ATS. And the team's last two home games were not even close, getting blown out by both Denver and Miami. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons bring a modest two-game winning streak into today's game. Detroit has also covered six of its last nine games. The Pistons have covered two of the three meetings this season and four of the last five overall. The Hawks haven't done well when installed as the home favorite, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven attempts. Can't imagine laying seven points here with the Hawks who have been struggling both with covers and with points. The Pistons are playing very carefree right now with nothing on the line and it shows. I'm taking the points here Sunday until Atlanta shows me they are ready to start playing like a playoff bound team.
Stephen Nover
North Carolina (-4') vs. Washington at Charlotte
I went 2-0 with Saturday’s freebies, giving you winners on Wisconsin and Florida.
For Sunday, I'm backing North Carolina in Charlotte as this is a short number to lay with the Tar Heels, who have become an elite team since Kendall Marshall became their point guard.
North Carolina is 15-2 in its last 17 game with the lone defeats coming against Duke.
It's not just Marshall that makes the Tar Heels the play here. They've also got a much tougher front line, are more battle-tested being from the superior ACC, and have the flexibility to stymie fast-paced Washington by effectively playing half-court.
Washington had a soft non-league schedule. The Huskies' only non-conference game against a tournament team was versus Texas A&M, a 63-62 loss.
Washington nearly squandered a 10-point lead in failing to cover against Georgia, a mediocre SEC team, in its first-round Big Dance matchup. It was the Huskies' sixth straight ATS loss.
The Tar Heels rank 35th in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.3% shooting. The Huskies are not a patient team. They also aren't physical. That's going to be a problem going against North Carolina's tall and tough front line, especially with Washington's propensity for fouling a lot.
Keep in mind, too, the Huskies had to travel more than 2,800 miles for this matchup in Charlotte. No team in the Big Dance had a longer trip. And Charlotte is right in the Tar Heels backyard.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Bobby Maxwell
Washington vs. N. Carolina (-4') at Charlotte
For my comp selection, this is just too much for Washington to overcome here today. The Huskies had never won a postseason game in the state of North Carolina before Friday and now they are expected to take care of the Tar Heels in their own backyard, coming off a 100-point game in their opener? No chance. North Carolina wins this one in a blowout. Lay the chalk, sit back and enjoy.
Washington scores a lot of points, true. But the Huskies also give up a lot of points, allowing 70.2 per game and 41.7 percent shooting. North Carolina has averaged 78.8 points per game over its last five contests and on Friday they beat up Long Island University, the fourth-highest scoring team in the land, 102-87. This Tar Heels’ team has topped 80 points in four of their last 7 games and they have won 15 of their last 17 with the only losses coming at Duke in the regular season and against Duke in the ACC tourney title game.
North Carolina has the inside and outside game working and on Friday they got 32 points from center Tyler Zeller and 24 points and 16 boards from Harrison Barnes. Washington is a guard-oriented team with their leader being tiny PG Isaiah Thomas, who had 19 points as the Huskies held on to beat Georgia on Friday, 68-65, but fall short as 5 ½-point favorites.
Washington is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall and on further ATS slides of 1-6 on Sunday, 0-6 against winning teams, 3-7 as an underdog on a neutral court and 1-4 after a non-cover. The Tar Heels are on positive ATS streaks of 5-0 against Pac-10 teams, 6-1 in the big dance and 7-1-1 as a chalk of up to 6 ½-points.
North Carolina is at home and is just too big for the Huskies. Lay the points with the Tar Heels.
2♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Chuck O'Brien
Marquette (+4') vs. Syracuse at Cleveland
For Sunday’s complimentary selection in college basketball, take the points with Marquette against Syracuse.
These Big East rivals met back on Jan. 29, and Marquette prevailed 76-70 as a two-point underdog despite allowing Syracuse to shoot 57% from the field (28-for-49). The Golden Eagles followed that big win with three losses in their next four games, but they’ve since won six of nine SU and ATS. And with the exception of two games against Louisville in the Big East tournament (81-56) and Seton Hall (85-72), Marquette has been very difficult to score on, allowing 67 points or fewer seven other contests since Feb. 19, including a 74-67 overtime win at UConn, a 67-61 victory over West Virginia and Friday’s 66-55 win over Xavier
Syracuse has rebounded from a midseason slump to win seven of its last eight (6-2 ATS), but really only two of those wins came against what I would call quality competition (West Virginia and Georgetown, and the Hoyas got knocked out in the first round of the Dance).
Marquette has been a moneymaker as an underdog lately, going 13-5 ATS in its last 18, and the Golden Eagles have also cashed in five of six this year when catching five points or more and eight of 11 when getting points on neutral courts. Meanwhile, despite getting the money in their blowout win over Indiana State on Friday, the Orange remain just 9-13 ATS when laying five points or more this year, and they’ve cashed in back-to-back games as a favorite just twice since mid-January.
4♦ MARQUETTE
Karl Garrett
VCU (+9) vs. Purdue at Chicago
I will admit that VCU probably runs out of gas in this round, as this will now be their 3rd game in 5 days, but I think the Rams have just enough fuel to make a solid run at the Boilermakers in this one.
Purdue opened strong against St. Peter's but the Rams are a step up in class, and VCU's solid 7-1 spread run their last 8 games sure is a "buy sign" as far as the G-Man is concerned.
The Boilermakers cover against the Peacocks was their first in their past 4 games when laying the wood, and while the duo of Moore and Johnson is among the most prolific in the college game right now, I can see the scrappy Rams under Shaka Smith give the Boilers a good scare before bowing.
G-Man gonna take the points and look for VCU to sneak inside the back door.
2♦ VCU
Michael Cannon
Virginia Commonwealth vs. Purdue (-9), at Chicago, IL
Take the Purdue Boilermakers as the big chalk against Virginia Commonwealth.
I just don’t see the Rams doing anything against the stingy Purdue defense.
Sure, I know it’s a lot of points to lay in Tournament time, but Purdue’s terrific duo of E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson should be able to help the Boilers extend the margin here while they clamp down on the defensive end.
Purdue held St. Peter’s to 29 percent shooting from the field in the 65-43 first round win. The Peacocks scored only 17 points in the first half, and the Boilers basically put it on cruise control after that.
Vcu has had a good run so far this year, but it all comes to an end in Chicago.
Lay the points with Purdue for the win and cover.
3♦ PURDUE
Derek Mancini
Florida State vs. Notre Dame (-5) at Chicago, IL
I'm siding with the Irish in a game that I don't believe will be as close as some bettors think. I understand the argument for Florida State, considering how well their defense looked against Texas A&M. And let's not forget, I told you to take the Seminoles in that game (one of my six straight Best Bet winners). However, I told you to take FSU because they matched up well with the Aggies frontline heavy offense. That is not the case against Notre Dame.
Unlike Texas A&M, the Irish enjoy a balanced attack that is a lot harder to guard. They have the guard play necessary to break down what is one of the premier defenses in the nation, with Big East Player of the Year Hansbrough, who's averaging 21 ppg and 5 assists over his L15 games. With a bevy of sharp shooter all over the court, the Seminoles size gets turned against them. I just don't see Singleton, James, or White being comfortable guarding the Abromaitis and company away from the basket.
The key to beating FSU is patience and taking care of the basketball, two things that Notre Dame does extremely well. Irish led the Big East with only 10.3 turnovers per game and average nearly 76 ppg on 46% shooting. Not to mention, they were also tops in assist-to-turnover ratio, another key stat for beating the 'Noles. Long story short, FSU has met their match here, as a balanced, patient, and efficient Irish attack gets the best of the 'Noles elite defense. Lay it with Notre Dame over Florida State Sunday.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Joel Tyson
Kent State (+4') at FAIRFIELD - NIT Tournament
Now for your free play, and it comes in the NIT as I like the Kent State Golden Flashes to cover at Fairfield on Sunday afternoon.
Both schools were able to win on the road in their opening round games, and while I respect the Stags and the defense they can throw at you, I also realize that Fairfield prefers the underdog role. As the favorite, Ed Cooley's team has failed 5 of their last 8 when laying the wood.
Kent State stands at 12-7 against the spread on the road this year, and they have also gone 4-1 both straight up and against the spread the last 5 times they have been installed as the underdog.
Good value with the puppy here, so take the points as Kent is there for the full 40 minutes.
3♦ KENT STATE
Craig Davis
Toronto at OKLAHOMA CITY (-13)
Today's free play is on the OKC Thunder minus the number over Toronto.
I honestly don't care if Kevin Durant plays or not. I think OKC is better than the Raptors even without KD, so this play is not based on any injury or non-injury.
This is based on 12 players for the OKC Thunder being better than a Toronto team that is building for the future.
The Thunder look to extend their longest winning streak in more than a year and this is just the type of opponent to get it done against. They, themselves, haven't fared well on the road. Take the Thunder minutes on the road.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Stephen Nover
Golden State (+9') at DALLAS
Dallas is going through a tough time. The Mavericks are banged-up and have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.
Shawn Marion, the Mavericks' third-leading scorer and rebounder, is questionable with a wrist injury.
Dallas is a much better road team than as home chalk when taking on inferior competition. The Mavericks are 13-29-2 ATS in their last 44 home contests when facing a team with a losing road mark.
The teams just met this past Wednesday at Oakland and the Mavericks won, 112-106, after trailing by 18 points. The short turnaround should ensure a strong effort from the Warriors in a revenge spot after blowing such a huge lead in embarrassing fashion at home.
Golden State has lost by more than nine points just twice in its last 12 games.
The Warriors have the backcourt firepower to stay within single digits.
1♦ GOLDEN STATE
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Columbus +120
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
The Devils have suffered back to back losses for the first time in two months and I believe will stumble again here in Columbus.
On Thursday they lost 3-1 to Ottawa and then 3-0 to Washington on Friday.
And the Devils have struggled in this spot all year long; just 7-10 (-4.3 units) in non-conference games.
On the other side of the rink: Columbus sits 12th in the West with 76-points, and are 0-2-2 in their last four in front of the home town crowd.
Captain Rick Nash got back on track in a big way last night though after an 11-game goal drought, as the Blue Jackets went on for a 5-4 OT victory at Minnesota; "It just seems like it was going in today," Nash said. "I've been getting a ton of chances. I've been hitting some posts and hitting some chests of the goalies, but tonight it went in."
This is a spot that Columbus has dominated in all year long, 10-4 (+7.4 units) in non-conference games.
Bottom line: The "revenge" factor also comes into play here, as Columbus has lost three straight in the series.
Great line value here; consider a second look at the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS in this contest.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Marquette at Syracuse
We're using that same winning system we used on UConn yesterday here. Not only did UConn cover, but Florida fell into the same system and did too, so let's lay the points with Syracuse, who is a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, off a cover as a double digit favorite and will be facing an opponent that also has a win percentage between .600 and .800. Additionally, the Orange are 23-6 ATS on the road off a cover as a double digit favorite. Also, they fall into another system that says to play on any favorite with revenge, playing for the 2nd time in three days. That system is 67-30 ATS last five seasons.
Play on: Syrcause
Tony George
Marquette vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -4.5
Marquette will not match the shooting clinic they put on against Xaiver in round 1 against a good Syracuse team who is playing with revenge after losing out to Marquette at home last month by 6 in a 70-76 loss in the front of a home crowd. Hard to beat a very good and highly ranked team twice in 30 days. One thing this late in the tourney, head coaches with experience in the tourney know how to win big games, and that favors Syracuse big time here and the revenge factor is always big as well. I like Syracuse in a high scoring game here which also makes the 140 points look tasty on the over, but I like Syracuse to advance here against a conference foe they know well.
WUNDERDOG
Washington at North Carolina
Pick: Washington +4.5
Yes, I know this is essentially a home game for the Tar Heels. But, I think Isaiah Thomas and the Huskies have what it takes to keep this game close. This Huskies team is more experienced and won't be rattled by the crowd. This game should be a barn-burner. The Huskies average 83.1 points per game and North Carolina put up triple figures in their opening round game. But, they also gave up 87 to Long Island. Washington will get theirs today. They are a good rebounding team and that could spell trouble for the Tar Heels who are just 5-13 ATS since last season vs. teams that outrebound their opponents by 4+ per game. North Carolina is also just 2-9 ATS over that same span on the road vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12+ points per game. Huskies head coach Lorenzo Romar is 76-51 ATS as an underdog and 26-12 ATS vs. up-tempo teams like NC (teams that average 62+ shots per game). I like the Huskies to cover this number.
Bryan Leonard
Washington vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -4
After closer examination we're going to back the in-state Tar Heels here. North Carolina was a young team to start the season with just two returning starters. They struggled out of the gate with losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt and Illinois. But as of late North Carolina has turned into an elite team with victories in 15 of their last 17 games. The two losses both coming to number one seed Duke. The style of play in today's game should benefit the in-state school who underperformed in the first round.
Washington was just 5-5 straight up against Big Dance entrants this year and they had trouble with a mediocre Georgia team in the opening round. Their style of play gave them a sizable advantage in PAC 10 action but that advantage isn't there against the youthful talent of North Carolina. Washington played the weaker schedule as evidenced by being an underdog just once all season, a straight up loss at Arizona. The early start time also hurts the team making the cross country trip. While Washington has already played in Charlotte the Tar Heels just live right down the street.
Jack Jones
Portland Trail Blazers +6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night. Portland is looking for revenge from their 106-101 overtime loss to the Lakers on February 23rd where they were leading by 4 points with under a minute to go in regulation. Portland has been a covering machine since that loss, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS.
The Blazers are hitting on all cylinders thanks to the healthy returns of Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby, and the trade that brought Gerald Wallace in. The Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Portland is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Lakers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Blazers are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take Portland Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Warriors/Mavs UNDER 213
Neither team played much defense in Wednesday's meeting. Both teams shot over 51% while combining for 218 points. Rest assured, the defense will be better this evening with both teams looking to get back in the win column. The Under is 28-13-1 in the Warriors' last 42 road games and 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is also 12-1 Under after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season, combining with its opponent to score an average of 197.2 points in this situation. Bet the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida State +5.5
FSU defends well enough to cover this number. The Noles rank 1st in the nation in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 36.2% shooting. They also rank 14th in 3-point field goal percentage defense, limiting foes to 30.4% from deep. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Take the points as FSU covers this one behind a great defensive effort.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +108 over ANAHEIM
This is without doubt the biggest game of the year for both clubs, as they’re tie for ninth place with 83 points, on point behind the Preds for the final playoff spot. However, the Ducks have two games in hand on the Flames and therefore, a loss here by Calgary and their playoff chances take a huge hit. In other words, Calgary is going to treat this game like a game 7, as there is likely no tomorrow for them. It’s also worth noting that the Ducks played their hearts out in an important 2-1 OT win in L.A. yesterday. That had to take something out of them for this, the tail end of the back-to-backs and their goaltending has been unreliable since the loss of Jonas Hiller. Calgary comes in rested, determined and playing some fine hockey. The Flames have one of the NHL’s best records over the past eight weeks or so with just eight losses in their last 26 games. None are bigger than this one and the Flames are very aware of that and surely they’re capable of winning this one. Play: Calgary +108 (Risking 2 units).