SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGION
(at Milwaukee)
(10) Georgia Tech (23-12, 17-11-1 ATS) vs. (2) Ohio State (28-7, 17-18 ATS)
After falling behind early, Georgia Tech rallied to outscore Oklahoma State 33-23 in the second half and score a 64-59 victory as a two-point pup in Friday’s first round. The Yellow Jackets outrebounded the Cowboys 28-17 and got 14 points and six rebounds from Gani Lawal as eight players scored six points or more. Going back to the ACC tourney, Georgia Tech has now won four of five (SU and ATS), including three as a pup.
Ohio State jumped out early and coasted to a 68-51 win over UCSB on Friday, just missing as a 17 ½-point chalk. The Buckeyes held the Gauchos to 32.3 percent shooting and outrebounded them 36-30. While star Evan Turner was just 2-for-13 from the field for 9 points, Jon Diebler picked up the slack with 23 points while Dallas Lauderdale grabbed 12 boards. Ohio State has now won eight straight contests (4-4 ATS) and 14 of their last 15 (7-7 ATS).
Georgia Tech hadn’t been in the Big Dance since 2007, when it was upset by UNLV in the first round (67-63). Since reaching the national championship game in 2004 (losing to UConn 82-73), the Yellow Jackets have played just four tourney games, going 2-2 SU and ATS.
Ohio State suffered a mild first-round upset last year, losing to ninth-seeded Siena 74-72 as 2½-point favorite, only its third one-and-done performance in 26 all-time appearances (and second since 1982). The Buckeyes were NIT finalists in 2008, one year after getting all the way to the national title game.
These teams met twice in 2003, with Georgia Tech winning both contests, including a 72-58 win in the postseason NIT as a seven-point home favorite.
The Yellow Jackets come into this one on positive ATS runs of 5-0 as a neutral site underdog, 6-1 in neutral site games, 12-4 after a spread-cover, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 7-1 in non-conference contests. Ohio State has cashed in eight of 12 against winning teams and four of five after a non-cover, but is on pointspread slides of 0-6 in non-conference games, 3-11 in NCAA Tournament games and 2-10 as a Big Dance chalk.
For Georgia Tech, the “under” is on runs of 5-0 overall, 5-0 in neutral-site games, 5-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 7-3 in NCAA Tournament games. Ohio State in on several “under” streaks, including 4-1 in non-conference games and 19-9 on Sundays, but on “over” runs of 10-2 as a neutral site favorite 4-1 against ACC teams and 6-2 in NCAA tourney games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
MIDWEST REGION
(at Spokane, Wash.)
(5) Michigan State (25-8, 12-20 ATS) vs. (4) Maryland (24-8, 18-10 ATS
Michigan State jumped out to a 42-29 halftime lead but had to hold on down the stretch and beat New Mexico State 70-67, falling well short as a 13-point favorite. The Spartans shot just 37.7 percent from the field but did have 10 players score, led by Kalin Lucas’ 25 points on 7-for-11 shooting. A Big Ten regular-season tri-champ, Michigan State has now won six of its last eight (4-4 ATS).
Maryland, a co-champ in the ACC regular season, scored an 89-77 win over Houston on Friday, cashing as a 9 ½-point chalk. The Terps dominated the glass, outrebounding the Cougars 47-26, getting a 21-point, 17-rebound performance from Jordan Williams. Maryland has won eight of its last nine overall (7-2 ATS).
Michigan State streaked all the way to the National Championship game as a No. 2 seed last year, losing to North Carolina 89-72 as a 7½-point underdog. This is the Spartans’ 24th tourney appearance in school history, and five times they’ve been knocked out in the second round.
Maryland fell to No. 2 seed Memphis, 89-70, in last year’s second round as a 10-point pup. The Terps have made this event just twice since 2004, but they’ve made it past the opening round now 10 straight times (including winning their only championship in 2002).
These two teams have squared off three times since 2003 with Maryland winning the last two (1-1 ATS), including an 80-62 win in 2008 as a 7 ½-point favorite. The two squared off in the 2003 regional semifinals with Michigan State scoring a 60-58 victory as a 3 ½-point pup.
Michigan State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 Tournament games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last six Big Dance contests overall, but it is on ATS skids of 1-7 in non-conference action, 1-4 in neutral site games, 0-4 against ACC squads and 1-8 against winning teams. Maryland is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 10-2 as a favorite and 5-1-1 against Big Ten teams, but it is on ATS skids of, 2-4 in non-conference action and 1-4 in neutral-site contests.
The Spartans are on “under” runs of 5-2 in non-conference action, 30-10-1 as underdogs and 4-0 after a non-cover. For the Terps, the “over” is on several streaks, including 7-1 in non-conference action, 6-1 overall, 18-7-1 as a favorite and 5-2 in neutral site contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE
WEST REGION
(at Milwaukee)
(6) Xavier (25-8, 21-11 ATS) vs. (3) Pittsburgh (25-8, 17-11-2 ATS)
Xavier is in the second round for the fourth straight year after beating Minnesota 65-54 as a 1 ½-point chalk. The Musketeers got a huge game from Jordan Crawford who had 28 points, six rebounds and five assists, but it was the defense that did the job, holding Minnesota to 19-for-62 shooting (30.6 percent). The Atlantic 10 co-champs have won nine of their last 10 games (7-3 ATS).
Pitt crushed Oakland in the opening round, winning 89-66 and easily cashing as a 9 ½-point favorite. The Panthers shot 53.6 percent from the floor and had six players in double digits, led by Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon with 17 apiece. Defensively, they limited the Golden Grizzlies to 33.3 percent shooting and won the battle of the boards, 36-29. Pitt has won nine of their last 11 (7-3 ATS).
These two teams squared off in last year’s regional semifinal, with Pitt edging Xavier 60-55 in Boston, but coming up short as a 6 ½-point favorite.
Xavier, making its 21st all-time appearance and fifth in a row, has held its own in recent seasons, getting out of the first round each of the last four years and getting to the Elite Eight in 2008 and the Sweet 16 last year. The Musketeers have taken down Big Ten teams in each of the last two second-round games, beating Purdue in 2008 and then topping Wisconsin last season.
Pittsburgh is making its ninth straight Tournament appearance, going 8-1 in first-round games during this stretch. Last year, the Panthers were the top seed in the East and reached the elite Eight before losing to Big East rival Villanova 78-76 as a two-point favorite. The Panthers have twice fallen in the second round in the last four tournaments, losing to Michigan State in 2008 and to Bradley in 2006.
Xavier is on a plethora of pointspread upticks, including 36-17-2 overall, 36-16-1 in neutral-site games, 14-5 in non-conference games, 13-3-1 in the Tournament, 9-1 as an underdog in the Big Dance and 4-1 against Big East teams. Pitt is on ATS slides of 3-8 at neutral sites, 1-5 in Tournament games and 1-5 as a Tournament favorite, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 14-7-1 overall, 6-2-1 after a non-cover and 15-5-2 against teams with a winning record.
The Musketeers have stayed below the posted total in 11 of 14 neutral-site games and four straight NCAA Tournament games, but they are on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a Tournament underdog, 5-2 in non-conference action and 5-0 on Sundays. The Panthers have topped the total in nine of 12 Tournament outings as favorites and 12 of 17 on Sunday, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Atlantic 10 foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
WEST REGION
(at Buffalo, N.Y.)
(8) Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) vs. (1) Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS)
Gonzaga dominated Florida State from the opening tip on Friday and cruised in with a 67-60 victory, cashing as a one-point pup. The Bulldogs shot 50 percent from the field while limiting the Seminoles to 35.6 percent shooting and outrebounded them 38-27. Gonzaga got 17 points and eight boards from Matt Bouldin as the as the West Coast Conference regular-season champs won their sixth game in their last seven outings (4-2 ATS).
Syracuse had no trouble dispensing of Vermont in the opening round, winning 79-56 and cashing as a 15 ½-point favorite. The Orange shot 54.5 percent from the floor and got 18 points and six rebounds from Wesley Johnson, while holding Vermont to 34.8 percent shooting. The Big East regular season champs snapped a two-game losing streak after falling in the regular-season finale at Louisville and then losing in their Big East tourney opener to Georgetown.
Gonzaga has the nation’s fourth longest active streak of reaching the Big Dance, with this being its 12th consecutive appearance. During this run, the Bulldogs have gone 5-3 in second-round contests. Last year they were able to get past Western Kentucky to reach the Sweet 16 before bowing out to eventual national champ North Carolina 98-77. The Zags are in a 1-5 ATS slump in the Big Dance.
The Orange reached the Sweet 16 last season, toppling Arizona State 78-67 in the second round before losing to Oklahoma in the regional semifinals, 84-71.
Although they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six Tournament games, the Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 5-0 in non-conference games, 7-1 as an underdog, 9-1 against teams with a winning record, 8-3-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 against Big East teams. Syracuse is also on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 29-11 overall, 8-2 in non-conference action, 9-3 at neutral sites, 26-10 as a favorite and 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
Gonzaga has topped the total in 12 of 16 non-conference games, four of five Tournament games and 28 of 39 as an underdog, but it is on “under” runs of 3-0-1 overall, 4-1 at a neutral site and 5-1 on Sunday. Syracuse brings in “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 5-3 in non-conference action, 16-5 at neutral sites, 4-1-1 as a favorite and 4-2 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
EAST REGION
(at Buffalo, N.Y.)
(10) Missouri (23-10, 15-12 ATS) vs. (2) West Virginia (28-6, 14-19 ATS)
Missouri pulled away from No. 7-seed Clemson in the second half of Friday’s opening-round contest and cruised to an 86-78 win as a two-point underdog. The Tigers shot 51.7 percent from the field and forced 20 turnovers which proved to be the difference, as Mizzou misfired on 12 of 17 three-point tries, watched Clemson make 12 of 24 from long range and got outrebounded 37-26. The 86-point outburst followed 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS slump in Big 12 play in which the Tigers averaged just 59.5 ppg.
The Mountaineers got off to a slow start against 15th-seeded Morgan State on Friday, but they had an 11-point lead by halftime and rolled from there, winning 77-50 as a 17-point favorite. Only two players scored in double figures, but 12 got into the scoring column, and West Virginia held Morgan State to 29.5 percent shooting. The Mountaineers, who won the Big East tournament title with three straight wins by a total of seven points, are riding a seven-game winning streak but they’re just 3-4 ATS (2-4 ATS as a favorite).
Missouri reached the Tournament last year for the first time since 2003, and it made the most of it, reaching the Elite Eight where it fell to UConn 82-75 as a six-point underdog. The Tigers have now won five straight first-round games (4-1 ATS) going back to 2001. Last year in the second round, they took out Marquette 83-79, barely cashing as a 2½-point favorite.
West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year, is making its third straight Tournament appearance and fifth in the last six years. The Mountaineers bowed out in the opening round last year as a six-seed, getting upset 68-60 by 11th-seeded Dayton as a nine-point favorite. However, they’ve won four straight second-round games since 1998, including a 73-67 upset of Duke as a four-point ‘dog in 2008.
Despite getting it done against Clemson on Friday, Missouri is still just 1-4 ATS in its last five overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. On the positive end, the Tigers are on ATS upticks of 10-3 in the Tournament (4-1 last five), 6-2 as a ‘dog in the Tournament, 5-2 when catching less than seven points in the tourney, 4-1 in non-conference games and 8-3 at neutral sites.
West Virginia pointspread trends are all over the map, as they’re on ATS runs of 9-2-1 in the Tournament, 5-2 as a Tournament chalk and 20-6 on Saturday, but they also are riding negative ATS stretches of 2-5 as a favorite overall, 7-19 when laying less than seven points overall and 1-4 at neutral sites (all as a chalk).
For Missouri, the over is on surges of 6-0 in non-conference action, 11-1 in the Big Dance, 9-0 as a Tournament underdog, 5-2 at neutral sites, 10-2 as a neutral-site underdog and 6-0 on Sunday. The Mountaineers have topped the total in four of six NCAA Tournament games and four of five against Big 12 opposition, but they’re also on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 at neutral sites (all as a favorite) and 6-2 as a favorite anywhere (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
EAST REGION
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
(12) Cornell (28-4, 17-10 ATS) vs. (4) Wisconsin (24-8, 17-13 ATS)
Cornell pulled off one of the more impressive first-round wins, dismantling 5th-seeded Temple 78-65 for its first Big Dance win in school history. Despite facing one of the top defensive teams in the country – one that had held nine of its previous 10 opponents to less than 58 points – the Big Red shot 56.2 percent from the field and made nine three-pointers. The Ivy League champs have now won eight in a row (4-4 ATS) and 16 of their last 17 since a five-point loss at top-ranked Kansas on Jan. 6.
The Badgers barely escaped a stunning first-round upset against Wofford on Friday, getting a tiebreaking basket with less than 30 seconds to play and holding on for a 53-49 win, but they fell well short as a 10½-point favorite. Wisconsin, which ranks third nationally in allowing just 56 ppg, has held its last five opponents to 49, 58, 57, 40 and 46 points. However, the Badgers’ offense has been inept in the last two games, scoring 54 and 53 points while making just 38 of 117 shots.
Cornell has won three straight Ivy League titles to get the automatic Big Dance bid, but prior to Friday, the Big Red had been 0-5 in this event. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is making its 12th straight tourney appearance. In fact, after reaching this event just four times from 1941-1998, the Badgers have been here every year since 1999. However, although they’ve now scored four straight first-round victories (2-1-1 ATS), it has made it out of the first weekend just once since 2005. Last year, they lost 60-49 to Xavier as a 2½-point underdog in the second round.
Cornell is still just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 overall, but it is otherwise on pointspread tears of 35-16 in non-conference play, 4-1 at neutral sites, 37-17-1 as an underdog, 23-5 when catching less than seven points and 6-2 after a spread-cover. Wisconsin has covered in six of seven as a favorite of less than seven points, but it also carries negative ATS trends of 1-5 at neutral venues, 0-5 as a chalk at neutral sites, 1-5 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament and 1-5 versus winning teams.
The Big Red are on “under” runs of 18-9 overall, 12-5-2 as an underdog, 5-2 on Sunday and 4-1 against the Big Ten. The low-scoring Badgers are also on several “under” runs, including 27-11 overall (18-5 last 23), 14-4 as a favorite, 5-1 when laying less than seven points, 4-0 in non-conference play, 5-1 in the Tournament, 6-2 in neutral-site games, 36-14-1 after a SU victory and 15-6 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CORNELL and UNDER
SOUTH REGION
(at Spokane, Wash.)
(5) Texas A&M (24-9, 19-10 ATS) vs. (4) Purdue (28-5, 13-18-2 ATS)
Texas A&M jumped on 12th-seeded Utah State quickly in Friday’s opening round and cruised to a 69-53 victory, easily cashing as a three-point favorite. Four players scored in double figures for the Aggies, who outshot Utah State 49 percent to 38.7 percent. After being involved in a slew of tight games coming into this event (nine of 16 decided by five points or less), Texas A&M had a comfortable margin throughout on Friday.
Purdue used a huge second half to build a double-digit lead against No. 13 Siena on Friday, then the Boilermakers held on down the stretch for a 72-64 win as a 4 ½-point favorite. Purdue trailed 32-29 at halftime but went on a scoring binge over the final 20 minutes and it finished shooting 45.8 percent while holding Siena to 32.9 percent (3-for-12 from three-point range).
Texas A&M is 10-3 SU and ATS in its last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers, who rebounded from last Saturday’s disastrous 69-42 loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament are 14-2 in their last 16 games, and they ended an 0-6-1 ATS slump with Friday’s spread-cover.
In routing Utah State, the Aggies improved to 5-0 SU and ATS in first-round Tournament action since 2006. However, they’ve reached the Sweet 16 just once since 1980, and that was in 2007 when they topped Louisville 72-69 in a second-round contest, barely cashing as a 2½-point favorite.
Purdue has made four straight trips to the Tournament, and last year it advanced to the Sweet 16 where it lost to eventual Final Four participant UConn, 72-60 as a seven-point ‘dog. The Boilermakers have now won 12 consecutive first-round games dating to back to 1994. In their second-round matchup last year – also a No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed showdown – they edged Washington 76-74 as a one-point pup.
These teams haven’t met since December 2001, when Texas A&M went to Purdue and rolled 71-64 as a nine-point road underdog.
Texas A&M is now 4-3 SU and ATS in neutral-site affairs this year, though the underdog is 5-2 ATS. The Aggies remain on a plethora of pointspread surges, including 11-2 overall, 21-8 at neutral sites, 7-1 as a favorite, 26-10 when laying less than seven points, 8-2 in the Tournament, 5-1 when laying points in the Tournament, 9-1 versus winning teams, 45-22 after a spread-cover and 3-1-1 versus the Big Ten. The only downside: a 2-4 ATS mark both in non-conference games and as a favorite at neutral sites, and a 2-5-1 ATS slump on Sunday.
Purdue is now 6-1 at neutral venues (3-2-2 ATS), and it is on positive ATS runs of14-6-1 as an underdog, 10-4-1 when catching less than seven points and 5-1 as a Tournament ‘dog. However, the Boilers are still in ATS funks of 1-6-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a SU win, 5-13-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4-1 versus winning teams.
Texas A&M is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall, 7-2 in non-conference play (4-1 last five), 4-1 as a favorite of less than seven points and 4-0 versus the Big Ten. For Purdue, the under is on runs 5-2 overall, 5-3 at neutral sites and 5-0 on Sunday. Conversely, the Boilermakers hurdled the total against Siena, so the over is now 8-3-1 in their last 12 in the NCAA Tournament, 6-1 in their last seven non-conference outings, 9-4 in their last 13 as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER
SOUTH REGION
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
(8) California (24-10, 20-13 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (30-5, 19-13-2 ATS)
Cal continued its strong late-season play with a wire-to-wire 77-62 rout of Louisville as a one-point favorite in Friday’s first round. The Bears raced out to a 22-4 lead to start the game and never trailed, as Jerome Randle and Theo Robertson both poured in 21 points. Cal, which shot 55.3 percent overall (8-for-15 from three-point range) against Louisville, is on a 10-2 SU and ATS run.
Duke had no trouble at all with play-in-game-winner Arkansas Pine-Bluff on Friday, rolling 73-44 and cashing as a 24-point favorite to end a season-worst 0-3 ATS slump. Kyle Singler (game highs of 22 points and 10 rebounds) led four teammates in double-digit scoring for the Blue Devils, who have won five in a row and 13 of 14, with nine of those being double-digit victories.
Cal returned to the Tournament last year for the first time since 2006, but suffered a 13-point first-round loss to Maryland, and Friday’s rout of Louisville was its first Tournament victory since 2003. However, the Bears haven’t gotten out of the opening weekend since 1997.
Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row. The Blue Devils, who are a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade, topped Texas 74-69 in the second round last year before getting blasted by Villanova 77-54 in the Sweet 16. Duke is 10-1 SU in its last 11 second-round contests, but only five of those 10 wins came by double digits.
Cal’s negative ATS trends of 3-7 at neutral sites, 2-4 in the Tournament and 1-4 versus the ACC are offset by positive pointspread surges of 7-1 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 after a SU win and 5-1 versus winning teams.
Duke has cashed in four of five against the Pac-10, and it is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on Sunday. However, the Blue Devils are also in pointspread slumps of 3-10 in the Tournament, 1-4 after a SU victory and 1-4-1 after a spread-cover.
The Bears stayed under the total in Friday’s game against Louisville, but they still carry “over” trends of 17-5 at neutral sites, 4-1 against the ACC, 5-2 on Sunday, 53-21-1 after a victory and 38-16-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, Duke is on “under” runs of 10-3 overall, 7-2 at neutral venues, 9-3 after a SU victory, 25-12 following a spread-cover, 4-1 on Sunday and 4-1 in the Big Dance.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA
Hollywood Sports
Cornell at Wisconsin
Prediction: Cornell
Cornell (28-4) drew a very tough opening round draw against a very good Temple team yet dismantled them by a 78-65 score. Now they face another strong team in Wisconsin (24-8). While the Badgers play typically good defense, much of that is due to their size inside. If Wisconsin does have a weakness, it is their perimeter defense which plays right into Cornell's hands. The Big Red start five seniors and four of these players are deadly from the outside. Overall, Cornell shoots 48% from the field and a sizzling 43.7% from behind the arc. And in their last five games, they are shooting 52.6% from the field and an amazing 50% from behind the arc. The Big Red also have a 7'0" big man in Jeff Foote to match Wisconsin interior. Wisconsin (24-8) was listless in their 53-49 win over Wofford as they shot just 37% from the field while converting only one 3-pointer. The Badgers have not covered their last five games played on a neutral court. And they have failed to over the spread in five of their last six games against teams with a winning record. Cornell has covered six of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. Wisconsin is a very good and offensively efficient team. But Cornell just seems to have some magic going for them right now. Their shooting will at least keep them within the number and this is supported by the fact that they have covered 23 of their last 28 games when an underdog of under seven points. While Cornell is a popular Cinderella candidate entering the tournament, having to face an under-seeded Temple club seemed unfortunate. That win over Owls was very impressive. Take the points now with Cornell.
Rob Vinciletti
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Play: Gonzaga +7
Gonzaga is taking 7 points here today from a revitalized Syracuse team. While its hard to find negative stats for the Orangemen this may be too many points to lay here today. Villanova lost yesterday to St.Marys in a battle of the West coast conference vs the Big East, and as we saw with Kansas the mid majors can be dangerous to any team. Gonzaga may not win here but their stats indicate they can stay with Syracuse. Gonzaga is 6-1 ats vs the Big East most recently and has won 7 of 9 vs teams who average 77 or more points per game. In games where they allowed 60 or less they do real well. They are 38-4 including 10-0 this year off these big defensive efforts. With 1 or less day of rest they are 9-2 and 4-1 when the total is 150 to 155. Look for a competitive game here to open things up on Sunday. Take the points.
Larry Ness
Gonzaga @ Syracuse
PICK: Syracuse -6.5
Syracuse was 28-2 before losing its last regular season game at Louisville, which was the final game played in historic Freedom Hall (no shame there). The Orange received a double-bye in the Big East tourney but lost to revenge-minded Georgetown, which Syracuse had beaten twice during the season. Still, Syracuse got a No. 1 seed but in the West Regional. The good news here was that the school's first two games would be played in near-by Buffalo. Syracuse took care of Vermont on Friday 79-56, shooting 54.9 percent, including 10-of-22 three-pointers (Vermont was held to 34.8 percent, 5-22 on threes). Gonzaga is in its 13th straight NCAA tourney, opening with a 67-60 win over Florida St. The Seminoles entered with the nation's best defensive FG percentage (37.4 percent) but they are severely offensively challenged. In Syracuse, the Bulldogs will face Boeheim's tough zone D plus an offense which features five-double-digit scorers plus two others who add 8.9 and 8.1 PPG. The team's top scorer and rebounder is 6-7 Iowa St transfer Johnson (first season at Syracuse), who is averaging 16.0-8.4. The 6-9 Onuaku (10.5-5.1) missed the Vermont game with a quad injury and is expected to miss here but I'm not sure it matters. Gonzaga shoots 49.4 percent and averages 77.2 PPG but the Orange are the nation's top-shooting team (51.7 percent) and average 81.4 PPG (6th-best). The Bulldogs have two big guards in Bouldin (15.8-4.7-4.0) and Gray (13.7-4.2) who can shoot over Syracuse's 2-3 zone but let's note that the Bulldogs are 0-4 vs No. 1 seeds in their previous 12 tourney appearances and they are a LONG way from home, while the Orange have to feel as if Buffalo is almost a home game. The Jayhawks got upset by Northern Iowa on Saturday and Syracuse "took notice." Expect an easy win by the Orange.
Jimmy Moore
Michigan State vs. Maryland
Pick: Maryland -1
There is little debate that the ACC is a tougher conference than the Big 10 and Maryland was at the top of the ACC standings all season long. Michigan State had their troubles in the Big 10 and they were only 3-10 ATS outside of the Big 10 but what really goes against them is their 5-15 ATS record when playing a winning team. The Terps are a winning team easily and will get the win on Sunday afternoon.
JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
TAKE: OVER
It's difficult to believe this is a Detroit Pistons club. Piston teams of past were always known for their defense, but not anymore. This year's edition is allowing points in bunches. In fact, they haven't held an opponent to under 106 points in any of the last four games and have allowed over 100 points in eight of the last 10. Not surprisingly the club allows an average of 101.47 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers will surely welcome this type of team to The Q. The Cavs have the league's best record and look to secure home court throughout the playoffs. Cleveland averages 102.2 ppg this season, that's 9th best in the NBA. The Cavs have coasted against inferior opponents this year and that's bad for a team preping for the playoffs. I like the OVER here on Sunday as I fully expect the Pistons to give up a lot of points. However, keep in mind the Cavs have a much tougher schedule coming and they do sometimes get disinterested in teams like Detroit. If we can keep them focused then this one should go OVER the total on Sunday.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spirs at Atlanta Hawls
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over San Antonio, as Atlanta falls into a terrific 44-15 ATS team situation. What we want to do is play on the Hawks at home, if they're rested, and matched up against an opponent that defeated them by more than 10 points in the season's previous meeting. With Atlanta playing with revenge from a 105-90 loss in the Alamo City, and having Saturday off following Friday night's win over the Bobcats, we'll play on Atlanta to avenge that 15-point defeat.
Play on: Atlanta
Matt Fargo
Xavier vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Xavier -1
Pittsburgh had a very good season but I believe the Panthers are over-seeded. A 24-8 record coming out of the Big East Conference is very impressive as was the 8-1 finish to the regular season. Or was it? Of those final eight wins, only three came against NCAA Tournament teams and after a 5-0 start in the Big East, the Panthers went 8-5 the rest of the way which is definitely good but a big falloff if you ask me. The strong finish helped but going winless in the Big East Tournament did not. This is still a very young team and even though the Panthers looked great against Oakland, the situation is completely different here and they catch a less experienced team but one that matches up very well. Xavier lost a lot from last season but it put together another fantastic season. Seven of the eight losses were to NCAA Tournament teams and the other loss was to Dayton, a team that returned most of their lineup but faltered down the stretch. Non-Conference losses were to Marquette early in the year, Baylor two games later, Kansas St., a controversial loss at Butler and a double-overtime loss at Wake Forest. The Musketeers have the depth and athleticism to compete with almost any team in the country. Most importantly, they are extremely efficiency as they are ranked within the top 50 in Offensive points per possession, Defensive points per possession, effective FG%, defensive effective FG% and defensive rebounding as they play good defense, execute efficiently on offense and they rebound well. During the regular season, Xavier was 22-2 when it scored 70 or more points with its only two losses coming to Wake Forest and Temple. On the defensive end, 70 is a key number as well as games where it held the opposition under 70 points, the Musketeers went 16-2. Pittsburgh does not allow a lot of points but it does not score many either. This is also a revenge game of sorts for the Musketeers. The Panthers ousted them 60-55 in an East Regional semifinal in Boston last March and some Xavier players are eager to avenge last season's Sweet 16 loss to Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh loss, junior Dante Jackson said, is still “in our stomachs.” The lower seed is actually the underdog here and that has put the public behind the Panthers which is fine by us. 3* Xavier Musketeers
Craig Trapp
Xavier vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Xavier -1
Obviously the oddsmakers have learned their lesson that XU is for real. PITT will realize why XU is so dangerous. Crawford might be a top 5 player in this tourney as he can score from deep and kill you taking it to the hole. Don't forget the depth of XU either as they have 8 solid players including 4 of the best rotation of guards in the country. Even though PITT finished third in the Big East they just don't match-up well against XU. Don't forget that PITT did not play great away from home going 5-4 and 9-8 ATS. XU will be able to deal with the physical play of PITT and dominate the perimeter winning fairly easy late.
EZWINNERS
San Antonio Spurs +3.5
The Spurs are playing very well right now as they get ready to try to make another playoff run. San Antonio has won eight out of their last ten games and they are 9-1 against the spread in those games. The Hawks also continue their strong play, but the Spurs have dominated this series. San Antonio has won seven straight meetings between these two teams and nine out of the last ten. I'm not convinced that Atlanta has figured out how to beat San Antonio and I'll take the points until the do. Play on San Antonio.
DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Atlanta
The Spurs look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road underdog. San Antonio is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2)
Game 701-702: Houston at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.873; New York 114.418
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Oklahoma City at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.456; Indiana 112.700
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4); Over
Game 705-706: Sacramento at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.885; LA Clippers 113.461
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 194
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 199
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5); Under
Game 707-708: San Antonio at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.726; Atlanta 122.928
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Under
Game 709-710: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.149; Cleveland 126.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 13 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 200
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-12); Over
Game 711-712: Washington at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.985; LA Lakers 123.111
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2); Under
Game 713-714: Portland at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.345; Phoenix 128.928
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2); Under
NCAAB
California vs. Duke
The Golden Bears look to take advantage of a Duke team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 1 to 6 1/2 points. California is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Duke favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: California (+6 1/2)
Game 715-716: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 65.655; West Virginia 72.899
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-5 1/2)
Game 717-718: Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 67.275; Syracuse 71.037
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 4
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+7)
Game 719-720: Cornell vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 67.340; Wisconsin 69.948
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+4 1/2)
Game 721-722: California vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: California 72.054; Duke 76.435
Dunkel Line: Duke by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+6 1/2)
Game 723-724: Xavier vs. Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 69.976; Pittsburgh 68.319
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Xavier
Game 725-726: Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 68.407; Ohio State 77.320
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-6)
Game 727-728: Texas A&M vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 73.443; Purdue 68.410
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 5
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-1 1/2)
Game 729-730: Michigan State vs. Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 70.494; Maryland 74.471
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 4
Vegas Line: Maryland by 1
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-1)
NHL
Tampa Bay at Florida
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is coming off a 3-1 loss to Washington and is 0-5 in its last 5 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Florida is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135)
Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.944; Boston 11.902
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130): 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over
Game 53-54: Calgary at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.204; Minnesota 11.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-105); Under
Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.088; Florida 11.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Under
Game 57-58: Buffalo at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.960; Carolina 12.812
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 59-60: Nashville at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.191; St. Louis 12.919
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over
Game 61-62: Phoenix at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.483; Dallas 11.832
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 63-64: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.317; Philadelphia 11.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over
Game 65-66: San Jose at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.343; Edmonton 10.610
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+210); Under
Game 67-68: Colorado at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.147; Anaheim 11.430
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over
MTi Sports
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-10.4 ppg) with two or more days of rest off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak, 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) when facing a team they lost to as a road dog in their previous same-season match-up and 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) when they committed at least ten more turnovers in their previous game than in the game before. The Kings are 4-0 ATS THIS season on the road when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next and 4-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) after winning the previous matchup in which Francisco Garcia scored fewer than 10 points. Grab the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Wisconsin -4.5
I have a lot of respect for this Cornell team, but it does have some flaws. It's biggest flaw is that it relies too heavily on the three-point shot. When they're falling, the Big Red can beat more talented teams, but when they're not, they are very vulnerable. Wisconsin is a team that defends the three-point shot well, only allowing its opponents to make 4 per game at just a 33.6% clip. Wisconsin is truly one of the best defensive teams in the nation, only allowing 56 ppg. This is very significant as Cornell is just 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams, allowing 64 points per game or less, after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. And this is a Wisconsin team which has been at its best against the best competition. Wiscy is 7-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 69.6 to 61.8. The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Duke, Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue, all by 4 or more points. I'll lay the number here.
Sac Lawson
Duke -6 vs California
Fact is this, Duke is one of the top 5 defensive teams in the country. No doubt about it, both of these teams are going to want to get up and down the floor and get this game into the high 70's, but California depends far too much on outscoring people and not enough on shutting people down. The two teams Cal struggled with most this year in conference were Southern Cal and Oregon St.... Those happen to be the two best defensive teams in the Pac-10... What I'm getting at is... Cal simply does not fair well against a team that is willing to put in effort defensively. The Bears would love to be able to get into a score fest and use their athleticism and talent to blow by you, but Duke is far too sound defensively for that. Duke can get up and run, but they can also play in the 60's. That combo of being able to play lock down defense, but still keep the tempo high, is one reason Duke is so damn good.
Next factor is, obviously, size. Cal simply does not have much size. Their main contributors are all under 6'8, and today they've got to matchup with the likes of Zubek and Plumlee. Fact is, Duke should have a HUGE HUGE HUGE advantage on the boards, and also a huge advantage on the perimeter. The Cal guards are pretty short, especially Randall. Scheyer, at 6'5, can really give Randall fits with his length at the top of the key.
It's very hard not to back Duke in this situation.. Coach K always has his teams ready to go for big games, and the fact that they do all the small fundamental things really gives us no reason to believe they don't have a significant edge. Duke will play better defense, out rebound, and most importantly disrupt the Cal flow with their size on the perimeter. I like only giving two possessions here, and it's good enough for a 1 unit play.