Scott Delaney
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Michigan State vs. Maryland, at Spokane
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Maryland is going to get out and run, and force the Spartans into a tempo they're not necessarily fond of. The Spartans pound foes on the boards and would much rather slow things down into a half-court game.
Though Maryland isn't a particularly strong rebounding team anyway, which is generally the key to a good transition game, it plays good defense and creates turnovers.
And since Michigan State's perimeter shooting is nothing special, it's going to need to do a lot of passing in the lanes. That won't bode well against a quick backcourt and aggressive D.
Maryland has not been to a Sweet 16 since 2003, and something tells me it's headed there in 2010.
Checking the betting numbers, the Spartans are mired in ATS slides of 5-16 against winning teams, 1-4 on neutral courts, 0-4 in non-conference play and 0-4 versus the ACC.
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On the flipside, the Terps are on ATS streaks of 10-2 as a favorite, 6-1 against Big 10 foes, 4-1 off a straight-up win and 5-1 overall.
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1♦ MARYLAND
Craig Davis
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Today's free play is on the Cal Golden Bears. The teams that seem to give the Blue Devils the most trouble are very athletic teams... like Cal. Look at the losses they had this year: Maryland, Georgetown, and Georgia Tech come to mind... and all three of those teams are very athletic. Cal really took it to Louisville in their opening round game, and they did it by taking smart shots, hitting better than 50% from three-point land and by hitting a solid amount of their free throws. Duke's first-round game was too easy and they have yet to be challenged, which I believe will play into Cal's hands today. Remember, the Bears were a pre-season Top 15 team and just because they struggled in the non-conference part of their schedule (injuries were a big key to that) and just because they struggled on the conference road doesn't mean they aren't ready to take Duke's best shot today. I think this game comes right down to the last possession, which should give me an easy cover.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3♦ CALIFORNIA
Stephen Nover
Detroit at Cleveland (-12')
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have no reason to go all out for a meaningless blowout victory with the postseason fast approaching.
Mike Brown wants his Cavs to save their energy for more important things such as a long playoff run. That means slowing tempo and giving LeBron James more rest.
This has been Brown's approach the past three seasons. The Cavaliers have gone 12-2 to the under when favored by double-digits at home after the All-Star break the past three years.
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The Cavaliers usually go under the total when playing division rivals. The under is 21-6-1 in Cleveland's last 28 NBA Central Division matchups. The teams just met this past Tuesday so they'll be no catching one another off guard.
The Pistons have trouble scoring in Cleveland averaging a meager 80.3 points during their last seven visits.
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The under has cashed 18 of the past 22 times the two teams have met in Cleveland.
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1♦ PISTONS-CAVALIERS UNDER
Derek Mancini
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Xavier (pk) vs Pittsburgh at Milwaukee, WI
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Most years we would all agree the Big East is far superior to the A-10, but this isn't most years. After watching one Big East team after another get knocked out of the tourney, its clear there's a lot more parity in college hoops than most gamblers realize - and this contest is another example.
Getting Pittsburgh at this price may seem like a "steal," but if you watched Xavier at all this season, you know this is a potential nightmare match up for the Panthers. Gamblers are enamored with Pitt, because it's one of the few high seeds that delivered Friday. Big mistake. Let's be honest, Oakland was totally overmatched, but that won't be the case today vs the Musketeers.
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Position by position, Xavier matches up extremely well with Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the size (Love, Mclean), the speed (Holloway, Lyons off the bench) and the superstar (Jordan Crawford) to get it done Sunday. Pitt lacks that true go-to player, and that'll hurt come crunch time today.
Revenge is a dish best served cold, or so the saying goes, and don't think the Musketeers have forgotten Pitt bouncing them from the tourney last season. That Pitt team was far more talented, but now the tables have turned, as the Big East has been exposed, as will Pitt be this afternoon. Xavier is the play in this contest.
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4♦ XAVIER
San Antonio at ATLANTA (-3)
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Spurs beat the snot out of the Warriors at home Friday, and now gamblers are convinced they're a lock at Atlanta tonight. Big mistake. Golden State is a joke (especially on the road), and in case people are forgetting the Hawks are 27-7 SU and 20-14 ATS at Philips Arena this season!
Hawks had a tough time with the Bobcats Friday, getting the win in OT, but failing to cover. They had trouble because they decided to take the night off defensively, but they won't make that mistake twice in a row, and especially after watching San Antonio drop 147 points on Golden State.
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These two teams played back in January, and it was a bad night for Atlanta. But what else did you expect from a team that's got a .500 record on the road? Hawks will not be held to 39% shooting in their own gym, and if you needed any more proof - the home team in this series is 10-4-1 ATS L15 meetings! Lay the points with Atlanta, as the Spurs may be hot, but they're beatable on the road vs a team playing elite ball at home (Just like the loss at Orlando this past Wednesday).
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2♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
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Missouri vs. West Virginia, at Buffalo
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I'm not that impressed with Missouri, not in this matchup.
Not when West Virginia boasts one of the deepest frontcourts in the nation. And quite frankly, I think that's where the Mountaineers win this game, using a methodical scheme to overcome Missouri's pressure defense.
The Tigers want a fast pace, and the Mountaineers wouldn't mind turning this into a half-court game, that's no secret, and I don't see that being an issue. Coach Bobby Huggins knows how to adjust and will have his team prepared for this one.
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West Virginia made the right adjustments along the way, and won the Big East Tournament. Now, as the No. 2 seed in the East, and likely fired up to match the intensity Kentucky had yesterday against Wake Forest, I like the Mountaineers to use its rebounding prowess to pull this one out.
The Mountaineers are ninth in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-6.8 entering the tournament) to MU's dismal ranking as 267th (minus-2.1.).
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The Tigers are mired in a 1-4 ATS slide, while the Mountaineers are on a 10-2 spread streak in Big Dance games.
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2♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Michael Cannon
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Missouri vs. West Virginia (-6), at Buffalo, NY
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Take West Virginia minus the points over Missouri.
Don’t read too much into Missouri’s win over Clemson. Missouri forced 20 turnovers and Clemson is overrated as a team anyway.
All you need to know is Missouri’s shooting woes continued against Clemson. They were just 5 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outrebounded 37-26 and allowed Clemson to hit 12 of 24 from 3-point range.
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If those trends continue today Missouri is getting blown out. I can promise you that.
West Virginia isn’t going to commit the turnovers that Clemson did. The Mountaineers will win the battle on the glass and will find open looks on the perimeter. They will also play tough, physical defense against the Tigers.
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I don’t see Missouri’s press working today against the Mountaineers. It’s probably going to lead to a bunch of easy points…for West Virginia!
The Mountaineers are on pointspread runs of 9-2-1 in the Tournament, 5-2 as a Tournament chalk and 20-6 on Saturday. The Tigers are on ATS slides of 1-4 in their last five overall and 2-5 in their last seven as an underdog.
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Take West Virginia minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
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3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Cornell (+4') vs. Wisconsin, at Jacksonville, FL
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Take the points with Cornell over Wisconsin.
This looks like a perfect matchup on paper…for Cornell.
The Big Red run great sets offensively, can bomb from 3-point range and play good defense. Plus they prefer to play at a slower tempo.
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The Badgers would play four corners on offense if they had their druthers, but that darned shot clock keeps them from doing that.
Wisconsin is actually lucky to be playing here. Wofford gave the Badgers a scare, but a turnover and a questionable call aided Wisconsin and they prevailed, 53-49.
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Cornell lit up a very good defensive Temple team in round one, winning 78-65. If the Big Red was able to get open looks against the Owls, they’re going to get some here too.
Cornell is on pointspread tears of 35-16 in non-conference play, 4-1 at neutral sites, 37-17-1 as an underdog, 23-5 when catching less than seven points and 6-2 after a spread-cover. The Badgers are on ATS slides of 1-5 at neutral sites, 0-5 as a favorite at neutral sites, 1-5 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament and 1-5 against winning teams.
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Take the points with Cornell as they get it done over Wisconsin.
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3♦ CORNELL
Bobby Maxwell
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California vs. Duke (-6), at Jacksonville, Fla.
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I'm on a 69-44-3 run with my FREE selections and I'm delivering a Big Dance winner today with Duke as I lay the chalk with the Blue Devils against Cal.
Duke has looked like a team on a mission lately, winning 13 of their last 14 games with the only loss being at Maryland. They rolled through the ACC tourney, and had to win some tight ones, then came out and crushed Arkansas-Pine Bluff 73-44 in the opening round. I’m not sure Cal is going to be able to stay with Duke and I’ve got no problem laying the chalk with the Blue Devils.
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Duke has only allowed 55 points a game over the last five and held the opposition to 37.5 percent shooting. Kyle Singler is playing the best basketball of his career and had 22 points and 10 rebounds in the opening round win.
The Golden Bears have Pac-10 Player of the Year in Jerome Randle but the Blue Devils are able to shut down point guards. For Cal to even keep this one close, Theo Robertson is going to have to have a monster game. But I expect Duke’s swarming defense to be too much for Cal tonight.
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Cal is on ATS slides of 3-13 as a neutral site underdog, 1-7 as an underdog overall and 1-4 against ACC teams. Duke has covered four of the last five times they’ve faced a Pac-10 squad.
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The Golden Bears aren’t deep enough to stay with Duke in this one. Lay the chalk and play the Blue Devils.
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3♦ DUKE
Xavier (+1) vs. Pitt, at Milwaukee, Wisc.
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I'm on a 69-44-3 run with my FREE selections and today I have a winner for you as I go with Xavier to get the upset of Pitt today in the Big Dance.
Pitt is one of those teams that is hit or miss. The Panthers look sensational one night, only to turn around and fail to do anything and fall the next time out. Meanwhile, Xavier is a fantastic team with a very good tournament resume. I expect them to come out today and take this to the Panthers and win it.
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Xavier has made it to the second round each of the last four years and to the Elite Eight in 2008 and the Sweet 16 last year. Meanwhile, Pitt has fallen in this second round game in two of the last four years, falling to Michigan State in 2008 and to Bradley in 2006.
There’s a little revenge on the minds of the Musketeers as they lost in last year’s regional semifinal to the Panthers, 60-55, but cashed as a 6 ½-point underdog. Xavier was facing a much better Pitt team last year.
The Musketeers know how to score, putting up 80.6 points a game over the last five outings and limiting the opposition to 68.8. They have been very good at the betting window also, on ATS runs of 36-17-2 overall, 36-16-1 on a neutral court, 14-5 in non-conference action, 13-3-1 in NCAA Tournament action, 9-1 as an underdog and 4-1 against Big East teams. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS on a neutral court and 1-5 ATS as a NCAA Tournament favorite.
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Xavier is a damn good team and you can expect big things from Jordan Crawford in this one. Him and his Musketeers have a chip on their shoulder from last year’s tourney. I’m going with the Musketeers in this one.
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4♦ XAVIER
Karl Garrett
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Xavier vs. PITTSBURGH (-1) - at Milwaukee, WI
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Deja-Vu today, as Xavier and Pittsburgh have at it for the second straight year in the Big Dance. Last year, the Panthers were 60-55 winners as the 6 1/2-point favorite, and a similar result will not be a surprise today.
The fact this game is priced closer to a pick obviouslt means I feel the Panthers will be able to cover against the last Atlantic 10 rep standing.
Both teams took care of business in the opening round with relative ease, but it is the Pitt, 89-66 win over Oakland that has caught my attention.
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That is the first time since mid-February that Jamie Dixon's team has scored that many points, and while I don't expect them to ring the bell for that many against the defensively-staunch X-Men, I do expect the Panthers to win this game.
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Since the line is priced quite close to a pick, an outright win almost assures a cover, and I will side with the Big East rep in this go-round.
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4♦ PITTSBURGH
Maryland vs. MICHIGAN STATE (-1)
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For Sunday, have to side with Michigan State at a near pick over Marlyand.
Granted, the Terrapins were more impressive in their first round win, but Maryland had a foe that was defensively-porous in Houston. That won't be the case today when they face the Spartans.
Keep in mind Michigan State did charge all the way to the final Monday in last year's Big Dance, and while they have been maligned a lot this season, to get them at this price is a steal in my book.
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Maryland's dozen point win over Houston on Friday deserves a deep look, and if you look at the free throws missed by the Cougars - 12 of them! - you will see that the game could have been a lot closer had the Cougars netted half of them.
I have a feeling this Michigan State team is just about ready to hit their stride.
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Can't go against Izzo at this price.
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Take Sparty here!
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2♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Brett Atkins
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I handed you the big upset on Saturday as I gave out St. Mary's as my comp winner and told you don't be surprised to see them win it outright. Now today I'm doing the same thing as I'll grab the points with Cornell, but am expecting to see them beat Wisconsin and get to the Sweet 16.
I don't care that Cornell comes from the Ivy League. The Big Red are for real, with their four losses coming to the likes of Seton Hall, Syracuse, Kansas and at their rival, Penn. Everything else they've touched this season has turned into a win.
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These guys can shoot the ball and they can defend. Against Temple on Friday, they shredded the Owls' tough defense and that's what they are going to do today to Wisconsin. The Badgers are all too similar to the Owls, playing tight defense and winning the low-scoring games.
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Cornell is huge at the betting window, on ATS runs of 35-16 in non-conference play, 4-1 at a neutral site, 37-17-1 as an underdog and 23-5 when they are a 'dog of less than seven points. The play is Cornell today!
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5♦ CORNELL
Jay McNeil
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Cornell vs. Wisconsin, at Jacksonville
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Hard to ignore the Big Red, which plays a potent outside-inside game thanks to deadly three-point shooting and the presence of 7-foot center Jeff Foote.
Cornell, which lost by a mere five points at Kansas during the regular season, has three starters who shoot 42 percent or better from three-point range.
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Ryan Wittman and Louis Dale combined to hit 7-of-13 from beyond the arc, and scored 41 points in the first-round victory over Temple. Foote hit 6-of-8 field-goal attempts and added 16 points and seven rebounds.
And this is where the ball game is actually won: defensively, Cornell is fully capable of playing man-to-man or a 1-3-1 zone.
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While frustrating the Badgers with a hands-in-your-face D, Big Red will get to them with the zone, limiting the high-percentage shots.
Play the underdog in this one.
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2♦ CORNELL
Joel Tyson
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Now it is on to Sunday, and I will lay the wood with the Mountaineers, as they couldn't ask for a better second round matchup in this Big Dance.
At this time of year, the name of the game is matchups, and West Virginia does everything Missouri does, and they do it just a little better.
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Prior to this tourney, Mizzou had lost 2 in a row, and 3 of 4, failing ALL 4 against the spread.
West Virginia has now won their last 7, and after their Friday beat-down of Morgan State the Mounties seem to be hitting stride once again on offense.
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The Morgantown Crew will welcome Mizzou's faster tempo, and blow them away.
Lay the wood.
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3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Jeff Benton
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Scored the outright upset with St. Mary’s (6♦) over Villanova in Saturday’s second round of the Big Dance. I’m now on runs of 40-22-2 and 30-16-2 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday’s free play, we’ll back another live ‘dog as we head to the East Region and take the points with Cornell against Wisconsin.
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Obviously, I missed the boat big time with the Big Red on Friday. I truly thought Temple, with its stout defense, would be a nightmare matchup for Cornell. Instead, the Owls – who had held seven straight opponents and nine of 10 to less than 58 points – were completely defenseless as Temple put up 78 points and made 56.2 percent of its shots. Only Kansas (84 points) had a better offensive output against the Owls this season.
Now Cornell faces another team that plays the exact same style as Temple. Only the Badgers are much less athletic. In fact, Temple allowed teams to shoot just 38.3 percent this season (now 9th best in the country). Wisconsin ranks 102nd in field-goal defense (41.8 percent). And at neutral sites, the Badgers allow the opposition to shoot 45.2 percent. Also, Wisconsin’s offense is a mess. It scored just 53 points in Thursday’s four-point win over Wofford after scoring just 54 a week earlier in a four-point loss to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers went a combined 38-for-117 (32.5 percent) in those two games. To put that in perspective, Temple actually shot 52 percent from the field on Friday … and still lost by 15 points!
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Wisconsin has reached the Sweet 16 just once since 2005 (last year, it lost a second-round game to Xavier). Also the Badgers have failed to cover in five of their last six neutral-site games (0-5 ATS as a favorite), and in their last six Tournament games as a small chalk (less than seven points), they’re 1-5 ATS. Meanwhile, Cornell has covered in 36 of 51 non-conference games, 37 of 55 as an underdog, 23 of 28 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and four of five at neutral sites. Take the points – and don’t be surprised when the Big Red pull off another outright upset.
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6♦ CORNELL
Chuck O'Brien
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Take California plus the points against Duke in Sunday’s second-round Tournament action.
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Hard not to be impressed with the way the Golden Bears are playing basketball right now. They’ve won six of seven and 10 of 12, and not one of those wins was by fewer than 10 points. I’m sure skeptics will poke holes in Cal’s recent success, because most of it came in the weak Pac-10. But you can’t poke any holes in the way the Bears completely dismantled Louisville in Friday’s opening round. In fact, they dismantled the Cardinals three times in the same game – jumping out to a 22-4 lead, letting the Cardinals get within five, then pushing the advantage to 11 at halftime, letting the Cardinals get within six down the stretch, then winning by 15. And don’t forget that Louisville beat Syracuse this season – twice!
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Just because Cal played in the watered-down Pac-10 doesn’t mean this isn’t a good team. They’re very long, very quick and very athletic, and they know how to shoot. The Bears rank 17th in the country in field goal shooting at 47.8 percent; over the last seven games, that number has increased to 50.5 percent. Compare that to Duke, which is shooting just 42.7 percent over its last six games. Also, Cal is among the best free-throw shooting teams in the country (they’re making better than 83 percent of their foul shots over the last five games, and in six neutral-site games, they’re shooting 80 percent).
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Cal not only has won 10 of its last 12, but it is 10-2 ATS during this stretch. Duke is just 1-3 ATS in its last four and 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10. And even though the Blue Devils got the cash in Friday’s blowout of play-in-game winner Arkansas-Pine Bluff, they’ve still only covered in three of their last 13 Big Dance games.
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4♦ CALIFORNIA
SPORTS WAGERS
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Missouri +6 over West Virginia
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Regular readers of this space know the Missouri Tigers have impressed me since early December, citing their outstanding athleticism and terrific defense as attributes that could take them on a magical run in the tournament. Missouri handled the Clemson Tigers in round 1 despite shooting 29% from three and allowing Clemson to go 12-24 from three-point land. The key to victory was forcing Clemson into 20 turnovers, not a big surprise considering the Tigers led the NCAA’s in steals created and finished third in turnovers created. West Virginia cruised by Morgan State but that game really doesn’t mean much; the Mountaineers have to be a little disappointed they drew this Tiger team in the second round because quite frankly it’s a terrible matchup for them. The game plan to beat Missouri is to race down the court and beat them at their own game. West Virginia plays a grind it out style that only delivered 33.5% three-point shooting and 48.7% two-point shooting. Slow paced teams usually shoot more accurately than that because they milk the clock down to get the best shot possible, but West Virginia produced rather pedestrian results running the grind it out offense. In retrospect it seems like the Big East wasn’t as good as originally believed, as Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville and Marquette have already been knocked out and I believe West Virginia will be the next team to go. The media is already running with the disappointing results of the Big East and you can bet the players and especially the coaches know the pressure is on them to deliver. The Tigers can play this game without an iota of expectations but I have a sneaky suspicion the players know what kind of team they are. Look for the Tigers to try and run the Mountaineers out of the gym from the opening tip, forcing turnovers and making three’s to add to the immense pressure WVU already faces. If you want to gamble a little I would advise a play on the money-line but we’re going to play it safe and take the generous 5½ points. Play: Missouri +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Cornell +4½ over Wisconsin
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The Big Red were confident coming into this event and after beating a very good Temple squad confidence is soaring. It was by no means a fluke win either. This Cornell squad can play with anyone and they proved it all year and they proved it in round one. Interestingly enough, the Badgers play a similar style to the Owls in that they rely heavily on a great defense while its offense struggles to score points. Cornell has all the ingredients to pull another upset here. They have a big man in the middle in Jeff Foote, who not only can score but he’s an outstanding shot blocker, as his 60 blocks on the year will attest to. Ryan Wittman, the Ivy League Player of the Year is unstoppable and once again dominated in the teams’ first-round upset over Temple with 20 points. Wittman is not Cornell’s only threat. The Big Red has a slew of three-point threats and in fact, shot an impressive 44.3% from beyond the arc during the regular season and used the three once again to put away the Owls. The Big Red are also solid from the charity stripe, which is another important weapon in this tournament. Meanwhile, the Badgers barely squeaked by Wofford as a 10½-point favorite. We saw a similar situation with Villanova in that they barely got by Robert Morris in round one and then were eliminated yesterday by St. Mary’s. The Badgers scored just 53 points on Wofford and they’re taking a big step in class here against this very dangerous Big Red squad. The Badgers will once again struggle to score points, they’re an inferior club to Temple, the team that Cornell already knocked off and frankly, the only reason the Badgers are favored here is because not many are familiar with Cornell, while the Badgers pedigree is one that is well known. The Big Red outright but the points are too juicy to pass up. Play: Cornell +4½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Xavier –1.10 over Pittsburgh
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Well, as it turns out, the Big East isn’t so great and the Panthers conference record of 13-5 might not be as impressive as originally believed. They lost twice to Notre Dame, a team that was ousted by Old Dominion and in the second game against the Irish they scored 45 points. The Panthers final three regular season wins came against St. Johns, Providence and Rutgers, three of the bottom four teams in the conference. Pitts offense leaves plenty to be desired, as does its bench, thus, in order to pull this one out they’re going to have to be near flawless and that’s unlikely. The Musketeers have been strong in this event for two years running and looked just as strong in its opening round win over the Golden Gophers by 11. Unlike Pitt, the Musketeers offense is wickedly good and in fact, they led the A-10 conference with an average of 80 points per game. Xavier played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, playing Cincinnati, Marquette, K-State, Butler and Wake Forest and that prepped well for the rest of the season. The Musketeers went 14-2 the rest of the way, they played strong all season long and for the third time in three years you can expect this team to make it to the Sweet-16. Pitt does not have the firepower to keep pace. Play: Xavier –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Tom Freese
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Detroit at Cleveland
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Cleveland is led in scoring by LeBron James and his 29.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 7-3 assits a game. Point guard Mo Williams scores 15.8 points a game. Forward Antawn Jamison scores 19.3 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Anderson Varejao scores 8.9 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games overall. Detroit is led in scoring by Richard Hamilton and his 18.3 points a game. Guard Rodney Stuckey scores 17.3 points a game. Guard Ben Gordon scores 13.5 points a game. Forward Charlie Villanueva scores 12 points a game. Forward Tayshaun Prince scores 12.4 points a game. The Pistons scores 93.6 points a game. Detroit is 6-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest and the road team is 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings. PLAY ON DETROIT +