VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas A&M at Purdue
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Hey look! It's the same situation we won with yesterday where we have the lower seeded team favored. Granted it's just a 5 over a 4, but this line does not accurately reflect the talent disparity between the two squads. Purdue stinks. They are also 52-79 ATS as an underdog. A&M is 14-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Prior to the opening round, the Boilermakers had not covered a game without Hummel.
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Play on: Texas A&M
Steve Merril
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Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State
Play: Georgia Tech +6
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Georgia Tech is extremely talented and they should not be this big of an underdog to anybody on a neutral floor. Their defense has been outstanding in holding opponents to just 66 points per game on an impressive 38.5% shooting from the field. Tech held their four ACC tournament opponents to just 54, 64, 58, and 65 points. The Yellow Jackets also held Oklahoma St to just 59 points in their opening round win on Friday night. Those numbers show they are in very good current form right now which makes them an extremely dangerous underdog. Ohio St struggled mightily in their first two conference tournament games as the Buckeyes needed a miraculous three at the buzzer to beat Michigan by a point (69-68) and then needed double overtime to beat Illinois. They waxed a terrible Minnesota team in the final, and then coasted to a non-covering win over UCSB in their opening round game on Friday night. The Buckeyes haven’t faced a good team since the middle of February, but that all changes in a big way this afternoon. Despite not playing top-notch talent, the Buckeyes have also struggled to cover pointspreads. They are just 2-4 ATS over their last six games, and failing to cover short numbers against bad teams raises a big red flag. If they are not dominating their weak opponents, there’s no reason to expect them to all of a sudden turn it on against one of the most talented teams in the country in Georgia Tech. Ohio St does not have depth (they play a 7-man rotation) so the fact that they rarely use their bench much is not good in a tournament where the level of competition increases in each round. Ohio St’s first real test in almost a month comes today, and since they are laying a steep price, it looks like a prime spot to play against them. Georgia Tech is not your typical ACC team. Tech is more of a half-court team that pounds the ball in the paint and plays solid defense on the other end of the court. That combination is also how Ohio St likes to play so it’s hard to imagine this game not coming down to the final few possessions. Georgia Tech has two future NBA players on their roster, Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, and they both play in the paint. Ohio St has a future NBA player in Evan Turner, but he plays on the perimeter where Tech’s defense has been outstanding all season long. Tech is definitely one of the most talented teams in this field so there’s some tremendous value in taking this many points with a team that has the talent to beat anybody in the country.
Marc Lawrence
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Houston at New York
Play: Houston
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The Rockets meet the Knicks at the Garden in New York Sunday afternoon looking to pick up their 10th win in the last 11 games in this series, and 6th winning ticket in the last seven tries. The game sets up well for Houston as they enter off a loss with the Knicks off a win. With the Rockets 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS away off a loss in games against losing teams this season, look for Houston to continue its winning ways here today.
BEN BURNS
Atlanta Thrashers @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers -200
This play is too "expensive" to qualify as one of my "guaranteed" selections. However, for those who don't mind laying a little extra "juice" for a game with a strong chance of winning, this one fits the bill.
These teams played last night. The Thrashers won that one by a score of 5-2. That was at Atlanta though. Tonight's rematch is being played at Philadelphia. That's significant. The Flyers are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Thrashers and 14-3 with two ties the last 17 meetings here.
The Thrashers are on a rare 3-game winning streak. That doesn't happen too often but when it does, they typically stumble. Indeed, they're a money-burning 23-35 (-14.4) the last 58 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive victories.
Thrashers coach John Anderson knows today's game will be tough. He was quoted as saying: "I think going into Philly will be a little tougher. They're going to be a little more prepared. They're going to play hard..." Personally, I expect it to be more than a "little" tougher. Consider laying the wood with the revenge-minded home team.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -3
Atlanta is one of the best home teams in the NBA, and it will have the edge tonight against a Spurs team that is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with an overall winning % above .600. The Home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the Hawks are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cal Golden Bears +6.5
Look for a Cal team with nothing to lose and everything to prove to give the Dukies a game this afternoon. The Golden Bears enter on a 7-1 ATS run in their last 8 games overall. Plus, they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Cal's first round win over Louisville gives it a lot of confidence heading into today's matchup. We'll take Cal and the points.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks -3
Atlanta is 27-7 at home this season, winning by an average of 8.4 points/game. Atlanta is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are playing this game with revenge in mind following a bad loss at San Antonio earlier this season. The Spurs are just 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. You'll rarely find the Hawks as this small of a home favorite, so we'll take advantage Sunday. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Cleveland Cavaliers -12
Reasons why the Cavs cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game). This is a 28-7 ATS System hitting 80% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Detroit is just 7-27 SU & 13-20 ATS on the road this season. Detroit has basically packed it in, going 2-11 SU & 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games. Cleveland is 10-0 in their last 10 meetings with Detroit, winning 8 of those games by double-digits. Bet the Cavaliers at home.
Jack Jones
Pick: Phoenix Suns -6
The Suns are one of the league's best home teams. Phoenix is 27-9 SU & 20-15 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 8.3 PPG. The Suns are also well-rested right now as this is only their second game in 6 days. The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Portland is also well-rested, but we'll side with the home team in this one as Phoenix is showing tremendous value here.
This play also falls under a system that is 22-4 (85%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (PORTLAND) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Take Phoenix.
Tony George
Maryland -1 vs Michigan St.
This will be a good game, but it comes down to some simple rules, better guard play and free throw percentage. Maryland has a huge edge in this game in those areas, and can simply score lights out. Michigan St. has a good defense allowing 59 ppg, but at days end, other than Ohio State, the Big 10 is not an upper tier conference this year and I look for them to struggle against a Maryland team who will own the defensive glass and play sound basketball, and in crunchtime knock down crucial free throws, with a 5 game average of 81% from the charity stripe. Tight one here, but FEAR THE TURTLE!