Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Illinois vs. Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes look to take advantage of an Illinois team that is coming off a 57-49 win over Colorado and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Miami (FL) is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-7 1/2)

Game 717-718: Creighton vs. Duke (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 66.232; Duke 73.305
Dunkel Line: Duke by 7; 142
Vegas Line: Duke by 5; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-5); Under

Game 719-720: Florida Gulf Coast vs. San Diego State (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Gulf Coast 61.766; San Diego State 66,049
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7; 133
Dunkel Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (+7); Over

Game 721-722: Temple vs. Indiana (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 63.229; Indiana 76.656
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 13 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Indiana by 11 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11 1/2); Under

Game 723-724: Iowa State vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 69.505; Ohio State 74.522
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 5; 148
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 725-726: LaSalle vs. Mississippi (7:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 65.380; Mississippi 70.518
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 5; 140
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: North Carolina vs. Kansas (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 67.801; Kansas 75.622
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 8; 148
Vegas Line: Kansas by 6; 143
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-6); Over

Game 729-730: Illinois vs. Miami (FL) (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.966; Miami (FL) 73.955
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 9; 124
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 7 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-7 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Minnesota vs. Florida (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 66.918; Florida 73.298
Dunkel Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Florida by 8 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: St. John's at Virginia (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 60.461; Virginia 68.915
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 8 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Virginia by 11; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+11); Over

Game 737-738: Kent State at Loyola-MD (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 55.425; Loyola-MD 60.884
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-4); Under

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. NY RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: the Rangers won 2-1 in New York on February 17th, before blowing out the Capitals 4-1 in Washington on March 10th. Both games went under the number. In fact, the O/U is 0-5-5 the last 10 in this series. But because of the situation that each club finds itself in coming into this game, I believe this longstanding trend finally gets bucked tonight. The Capitals got right back in the thick of things with back to back victories in Winnipeg, including an explosive 6-1 destruction on Friday, scoring 11 total goals between the wins. The Rangers are coming off a listless 3-1 loss to the Panthers on Thursday, and have had two whole days off to refocus for tonight's contest, and before hitting the road for a tough three game trip to end the month, which sees them in Philadelphia, Ottawa and Montreal. The Capitals are flying high and making a run in the Southeast division after the pair of victories in Winnipeg. I anticipate a faster paced game between these Eastern conference foes, and for this total to go over the number in the end.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The OVER has been hitting often when these clubs hook up. Atlanta has been a fickle club with the total this season. They have gone UNDER their last two games, but before that they had three overs. The Bucks have also been a club bouncing up and down against the total. The Bucks can score though, eclipsing the 100 points mark in nine of their last 13 games. But the magic really happens when these two get together with the OVER coming in six of the last seven. And, the last four meetings in Milwaukee have all gone OVER. Play the OVER here on Sunday.

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Charlotte Bobcats vs. Miami HeatFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Miami HeatFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This may seem like alot of points but The Heat may just blow the doors off a Charlotte team that played last night. Road dogs of 10 or more with no rest that scored 90 or more at home are 0-5 with no spread wins vs an opponent that was a home favorite, like Miami that shot 55% or better from the field in their last game. Miami is 10-0 with 9 spread wins at home on Sunday and 3-1 ats off 3+ ats losses. The Bobcats are 0-6 straight up and ats as a road dog from +15.5 to +18 and have failed to cover 17 of 23 in the 2nd half. Look for Miami to coast here.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah vs. DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mavericks host the Jazz Sunday evening with double revenge on Dallas' mind from a pair of losses suffered earlier this season in Utah. That sets the table for today's fray as Dallas is 15-6 SUATS at home off a SUATS win when playing with same season double revenge exact. Next to Utah's under-whelming 1-19 SU and 5-14-1 ATS road mark against .466 or greater opponents this season, the Mavs become the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dallas.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland vs. Oklahoma CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oklahoma CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ok City lost some important ground this past week to San Antonio in the race for the top playoff seed in the West, as narrow losses vs. Nuggets and Grizzlies have put Thunder in full-blown chase mode to catch Spurs. But schedule might be breaking right for Scott Brooks’ bunch, at least for tonight, as Portland enters Chesapeake Energy Center at the tail end of five-game road trip. Blazers might be hard-pressed to continue recent hot long-range shooting on road (Portland had hit 49% beyond arc in last five away from home after last Thursday’s win at Chicago), and Blazers were on short end of 106-92 scoreline in last visit to this site on Nov. 2 when Thunder’s Russell Westbrook dominated proceedings with 32 points. Ok City has usually provided good spread value at home this season (24-11 vs. number), so don’t mind laying reasonable price.

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San Antonio Spurs -1½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs have one of the best records in the league and their offense has the same scoring ability that the Rockets do as both teams average over 100 points per game. You should always play on road teams like San Antonio when they are an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more points per game and they are playing against a horrible defensive team allowing 102 or more points per game after 42 or more games in the season and after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 88-49 (64%) since 1996.
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San Antonio is 20-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread and they are 20-8 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season. The Spurs are averaging 104.4 points per game while allowing only 96.4 on the defensive end. Houston is scoring a lot of points too, but their defense is allowing 102.4 points per game at home. The Rockets like to get into a shootout with their opponents and that style of play simply won’t work against the Spurs.

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Creighton at DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CreightonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Creighton (19-13-1 ATS) is 27-6 ATS in its last 33 Sunday Games. Creighton is also 6-0 both SU and ATS in its last 6 games. Duke (17-16 ATS) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games. Play Creighton.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa State vs Ohio StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The more I see of Iowa State, the more I'm impressed by the Cyclones. They're certainly not unbeatable, but blowing this team out is another story entirely. It's true that the last two Iowa State defeats were lopsided, but I'm chalking those up to mitigating circumstances. I had a feeling they might actually be too fired up for the B12 tourney rematch with Kansas, and they ended up playing horribly. The loss at Oklahoma was right after getting absolutely robbed by the refs in their home game with Kansas, and they were predictably awful in that game. But the other losses since league play began were very competitive, and they were all on the extremely tough B12 road. This is on the road as well. Let's face it, it's a virtual home game for Ohio State, and the Buckeyes are scorching hot right now. Those two aspects are bothersome. Nevertheless, I like the idea of backing a team that can hang around with the ability to knock down shots from anywhere, and that therefore also has back door cover potential even if they fall substantially behind in a game. The Cyclones have the look of a very confident team right now and I don't see them getting crushed here. Enough ammo to grab the sizable spread with Iowa State.

Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio St -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa St looks great when they are knocking down triples as they did in their 76-58 opening round win versus Notre Dame. The Cyclones blew away the Irish with 9/21 triples (just shy of their nation-leading average), shooting 49% from the field with a 19/6 assist-turnover ratio, and 17 forced turnovers. But there's no way the Cyclones play to that level against this Ohio St team. Now that Buckeye high-scorer Thomas is being ably joined in the scoring column by high-flyer Thompson, Smith, and Craft, Ohio St is playing with more offensive efficiency than they have all season; and the defense which allows just 58/40/32 was never in question. It has led to a 9-0 SU ATS burst. In their 95-70 opening round slaughter of Iona, Ohio St allowed the high-scoring Gaels just 35% from the field and 21% from the arc, forcing 19 turnovers; they owned the boards with a +9 margin, had an amazing 25/10 assist-turnover ratio, and profited from Thompson recording a 20/10 night to compliment the 24 points by Thomas. With Craft dishing out dimes and snaring steals, this is quickly becoming an unbeatable team the remainder of the season. That certainly won't happen today, as they lock down the arc and emerge with a double-digit win.

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4 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent State/ Loyola Under 141.5: I know that Kent just played a slow down team in Fairfield and that game put up 144 points, but I just don't see the same thing happening here. Kent State is 128th in tempo, while Loyola checks in at 261st, so this should not be an uptempo game, plus this game will be played at Loyola, where their home games have averaged 128.9 ppg. a 12 point difference from this total. Kent State's games have been a bit higher scoring his year, but still their last 5 games have averaged 133 ppg, while their road games have averaged 136 ppg. That's 8 and 5 points off this total. This OU line is a bit perplexing, considering the fact that Loyoya has had 2 home games all year put up more than 140 points and one of those games were vs Iona, which is understandable. Kent State doesn't have the kind of offense hat can make Loyola play an uptempo game. This game also has a couple of teams that have been playing good defense. Kent State has allowed 65.2 ppg in their last 5 games, but on just 41.3% shooting. They are 54th in the nation in 3pt defense, while Loyola is 293rd in shooting the 3-ball, so I don't expect allot of threes by Loyola here. The Greyhounds come in having allowed just 60.7 ppg on 41.1% shooting overall, including allowing just 26.7% from long range at home. Just don't see one number at all here that would indicate a game in the 140's. The Teams don't play at a 140 type of pace and the defenses are solid. I see this one in the low 130's.
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State -7 over Iowa State: Allot of the Cyclones offense revolves around the 3-ball and I know that I need some threes to drop to get the over as well and while I do expect the Cyclones to hit some threes I don't expect enough of them to drop to keep this one close. The Buckeye defense is tough as they have allowed 58.3 ppg on the year and they rank 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes are not all about defense as they are 15th in the nation in off eff, while the Cyclone defense is 114th in defensive efficiency. Ohio State also has scored 79.5 ppg in non-conf games and after the Iona game they stated how much they really relish in playing an uptempo game. That is more there style. The Cyclones, in their uptempo style, don't play allot of defense, especially on the road where they allow 76.2 ppg and I see the Buckeyes notching 80+ in this one. This game should be an easy one for the Buckeyes as their offense has a field day vs a Cyclone defense that struggles away from home. The Buckeyes will give up some but not enough for the Cyclones to keep it close. Ohio State 80-66.
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2 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State/ Iowa State Over 141.5: Don't normally do writeups for my lesser plays, but I did this one for a Google News Article I did. The Buckeyes played allot of knockdown dragout kind of basketball but they really liked the wide open game they were able to play vs Iona and they will be able to play the same kind of game in this one. Iowa State is 33rd in the nation in pace and they have hit at l;east 80 points 20 times this year. They scored 76 points on a tough Notre Dame defense and have now scored 78.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Buckeyes have a strong defense, but they did just allow 70 points to an uptempo Iona squad and I can see the Cyclones getting 70+ in this one. The Buckeyes are an average offensive team, but they still have averaged 70.1 ppg on the year, including 79.5 ppg vs non-conference teams. This team really does like to get out and run and ISU will let them. ISU held ND to 58 points, but that is not normal for this team as they have allowed 76.2 ppg away from home and 73.4 ppg in neutral site games. Look for 75+ again from Ohio State, as both teams push tempo and we get about 150 points scored in this one.

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San Diego State -7 over Florida Gulf CoastSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast have got three things going for them as they attempt to follow up their upset win with another one here. They steal the ball on an impressive 12.6 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 25th in the NCAA). They position very well for offensive rebounds and the players just won the biggest game of their lives, which is hard to quantify but would be foolish to dismiss. However, they got to the line an incredible 44 times against the Hoyas and history tells us to be wary of a second-tier tournament team coming off a major upset. Last year, #15 seed Norfolk State beat Missouri in the first round and lost by 34 to Florida two days later. Also last year, #15 seed Lehigh beat Duke in the first round and lost by 12 to Xavier.
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Meanwhile, the Aztecs got a monkey of its back with that win and second half domination over Oklahoma. San Diego State went one-and-done last year, losing by 14 to NC State. It went one-and-done in 2010, losing to Tennessee. In previous tourneys, it went one-and-done against Indiana in 2006 and Illinois in 2002 but Friday’s win changed everything. Just 13 teams in the country allowed fewer points per possession than San Diego State. This is not only a talented squad but one whose true calling card is effort and toughness, as they rarely get outworked. The Aztecs Jamaal Franklin takes it to another level. Wearing his signature long sleeves, Franklin does it all. He is the only player in the country to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. Highly intense, Franklin plays with equal effort on both ends of the floor and with PG’s Xavier Thames and Chase Tapley, the Aztecs top three players can dominate a game. Chalk one up for the kids of FGCU for its win over Georgetown and busting nearly every bracket in the country. What follows a major upset is a herd of phone calls, media interviews, text messages, congratulations, big celebrations and usually a blowout the next time out.
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La Salle +167 over MississippiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s sometime difficult to compare teams because they play in different conferences and have very few, if any common opponents. However, here’s what we do know. The SEC has three representatives at this year’s main event, Ole Miss, Missouri (knocked out in the round of 68 by Colorado State) and Florida. The Atlantic-10 has five reps, (Temple, Butler, VCU, La Salle, and Saint Louis) and all of them won its first matchup by double digits. Another tool we have is the strength of schedule and that also favors La Salle, as its SOS ranked 72nd in the nation while the Rebels SOS ranked 120th. Ole Miss beat a very tough Wisconsin team but that was more a case of the Badgers being unable to hit open looks all game and the Rebels were able to rally from a 12-point deficit. Mississippi will see an entirely different approach from the Explorers. The Explorers employ the dribble drive and high-screen game effectively, utilizing their abundance of shooters and ball-handlers. La Salle has one of the strongest and deepest set of guards in the country and could give most teams a serious scare when clicking on all cylinders. Right now they are clicking on all cylinders.
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Ole Miss has definitely proven to be tougher than we gave them credit for but we’re still not buyers. Marshall Henderson gets most of the press, but forwards Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner are solid night-in, night out players. However, the Rebels offense isn’t very complex. It runs a lot of screens to get Henderson open and if he’s hot, the Rebels usually win. If he’s not, they’re vulnerable and La Salle’s man-to-man defensive scheme could cause the Rebels and Henderson some problems. No question, this game is likely to be close throughout but we give the Explorers just a good a chance as the Rebels and perhaps even more so. It’s for that reason we’ll step in and play the Explorers.
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Creighton +6 over DukeFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Beware of popular teams taking on a lot of action. The Duke Blue Devils and Creighton Blue Jays will play in the last scheduled game of the day meaning it will be the most wagered on contest with one of the highest viewership. That means the oddsmakers have to be especially sharp in this line. The Blue Devils are just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 tries outside of Cameron Indoor Stadium following their first-round non-cover against Albany. The real problem for the Dukies however, is rebounding, or a lack thereof. Duke grabs offensive rebounds on just 29.3 percent of missed shots (ranking 244th in the NCAA). It's a key vulnerability and Creighton is perfectly suited to take advantage of second chances.
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Creighton is big inside with 6-foot-9 senior center Gregory Echenique and big on the perimeter with relentless scorer Doug McDermott. McDermott is the real deal. He’s hit nearly 50 percent of his long-range shots (74-for-149 on 3s, 49.7 percent) and has an underrated knack for drawing fouls while neither committing them nor turning the ball over. The Bluejays also have a steady hand at the point with senior Grant Gibbs. Expect them to give the Blue Devils a battle right down to the wire with a strong chance of winning outright.

Andrew Lange

La Salle at Mississippi
Play: La Salle +2.5 1st Half

Throughout Ole Miss's postseason run the common theme has been big second halves. In the SEC Tournament, they trailed against Missouri and Florida and were tied with Vanderbilt at half an obviously won all three games. In the first round against Wisconsin, the Rebels trailed by three and rolled to an 11-point win. I personally think this method of routinely coming off the pace is going to eventually backfire at some point (perhaps tonight) but it is impressive that in the second half of those four games Ole Miss outscored the opposition 153-103. La Salle is playing its third game in five days. We saw last time out against K-State that the Explorers were perhaps a little fatigued as they nearly blew an 18-point halftime lead. Ole Miss has been getting the job done with defense but the offense has really struggled (less than a point per possession in four straight games). Unlike Wisconsin, La Salle can score both outside and inside (Jerrell Wright 12-of-13 2-point FGs last two games) and can take advantage of Ole Miss' sluggish starts. Play La Salle +2.5 first half.

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NY ISLANDERS -½ -106 over Florida FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. In their first three games of a four-game home stand, the Islanders are 0-3 after losing to Ottawa, Montreal and Pittsburgh while being outscored 14-7 by that trio. After playing that three-game set against three difficult clubs, this one should appear in slow motion for the home side. The Islanders head out on a four-game trip after this final game of the home stand and they figure to leave nothing on the table here. The Islanders are a perplexing club. Loaded with talent and defeating some of the best clubs in the league, they too often perform far below their abilities. However, they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to face today and the situation is highly in the New York’s favor also.
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Florida will play its third game in four days and back-to-back games after playing in New Jersey last night. This one goes off at 5:00 PM EST, making it even more difficult for the Panthers, who are 1-11 in their last 12 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. It’s also the Panthers fourth successive road game and they have a trip to Toronto on deck on Tuesday. The Panthers will not only be running on fumes here but they’ve scored two goals or less in six of their past nine games. With numerous injuries and playing its second game in less than a 24-hour span, Florida’s chances are slim at best. The Islanders are aware of what’s at stake. A loss here to this guest in this situation would be the worst loss of the year. Coming off three straight home losses, the Islanders will respond.