Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday March, 25

Hollywood Sports

Oakland at Utah St.
Prediction: Utah St.

After three straight home games, Oakland (17-15) travels west to face Utah State -- and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games on their home court. The Golden Grizzlies have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The biggest problem Oakland has on the road is that allow 76.5 PPG on 47.8% shooting which is way too generous. This spells problems when facing a Utah State team (17-15) that averages 71.7 PPG on 49.0% shooting on their home court. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite of under 7 points. Utah State has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams outside the WAC. The Aggies reached the Semifinals after their 77-69 win versus Loyola-Marymount -- and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total following a straight-up victory. Expect a very high-scoring game in this one.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Memphis Grizzlies at LA Lakers
Play: Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis lost their third in row yesterday afternoon, right on this very floor, to fall to 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS last six games overall. Tonight, however, sees them catching a pretty generous number against a Lakers team that has not really been blowing opponents out of late. That's evident by LA's own 1-4 ATS mark last five, and not only do the Grizzlies have revenge for a five-point loss suffered at home 12 days ago, but they are also 25-9 ATS when playing the second night of back to backs!

Rob Vinciletti

Edmonton Oilers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus has won the last 5 in the series here at home and are 8-5 in the 2nd half vs losing teams. They are off a solid 5-1 win over Carolina and take on an Edmonton team that is 1-12 off 3+ road games and 1-5 this season on the road off a road win. The Oilers are 11-23 vs losing teams and have dropped 19 of 27 on the road when the total is 5.5. Look for Columbus to get the win here today.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Nashville Predators @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

Nashville is 43-24-8 (19-15-3 on the road). Chicago is 42-25-8 (26-7-5 at home). The last time these club's played against each other, the Predators won 3-1 in Nashville on February 14th, 2012.

A quick look at what each team did in its last outing sees the Predators coming away with a big 3-1 win over Winnipeg last night. Shea Weber, Matt Halischuk and Gabriel Bourque potted the goals. Pekka Rinne made 24-saves.

The Blackhawks are arguably the hottest team in the league right now (8-2/+6.1 units overall in March), having won five-straight, including a 2-1 victory over the Canucks on Wednesday. Andrew Shaw scored in overtime to secure the win. Patrick Kane also scored. Goaltender Corey Crawford had 23-saves and has now won five-straight.

Nashville has struggled all year in back to back situations, just 4-5 (-1.6 units), and faces a Blackhawks team that sits just two games behind it in the Western Conference standings.

Remember, the Predators had allowed 18-goals while losing two in a row and four of their last five before their last victory.

Expect the red-hot Hawks to take advantage of this opportunity.

You should consider laying this very reasonable price!

Marc Lawrence

Phoenix @ Cleveland
PICK: Cleveland

When the Cavs host the Suns at the 'Q' in Cleveland Sunday afternoon the Cavaliers will take the court off a 13-point loss knowing they are 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. They are also 5-2 ATS in games this season against Western Conference foes off a win. With Phoenix more likely concerned with a same season revenge rematch at home with San Antonio up next on Tuesday, look for the Cavs to strike pay dirt today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Ben Burns

Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus is off a convincing 5-1 victory over Carolina on Friday. I backed the underdog Blue Jackets in that game and feel this potentially looks like another solid spot to do so.

For a team which was struggling to score, the five goals had to feel awfully good. The big win should help to generate some positive momentum.

Columbus' R.J. Umberger, who had a hat trick in Friday's win, was quoted as saying: “We’ve taken a lot of flak over the last six games for not scoring any goals. Honestly, I felt like one of these nights was coming because we had a lot of chances. I know, myself, I had chance after chance. We just weren’t scoring goals. Tonight, it just seemed like everything lined up right.”

It should be noted that the Oilers are playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip. They were 2-0 in the games against teams still in the playoff race but lost the lone game vs. the team (Tampa Bay) which was "playing out the string." Naturally, Columbus falls into that category. Anyway, the fact that this is their fourth straight on the road is significant as the Oilers are an awful 9-31 (-18.5) the last 40 times that they'd played their previous three games away from Edmonton. That includes a 1-12 (-10.8) mark their last 13 in that situation.

With Friday's victory, the Jackets have now quietly gone 8-5 (+5.7) their last 13 against teams with a losing record. They're now a profitable 26-18 (+11.8) the past couple of years, when facing a losing team in the second half of the season.

Lastly, note that the Jackets are 5-0 the last five times that they were a host in this series. Consider COLUMBUS

David Chan

Oilers @ Blue Jackets
PICK: Over 5.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

The 30-36-9 Edmonton Oilers roll into Columbus to take on the 24-43-7 Blue Jackets.

Devan Dubnyk is scheduled to start opposite Steve Mason between the pipes.

Both cellar dwellers are coming off victories.

Edmonton won 2-1 in a shootout at Florida on Friday. Ryan Jones scored in regulation. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped 26-pucks:

“It was one of those games that whoever made the last mistake might have cost them the game,” Oilers coach Tom Renney said.

The Blue Jackets hammered the Hurricanes 5-1 on Friday. Goaltender Steve Mason made 39-saves. RJ Umberger exploded for three goals:

“We’ve taken a lot of flak the last six games for not scoring any goals,” Umberger said after. “Honestly, I felt like one of these nights was coming. Because we’ve had a lot of chances. I know myself I’ve had chance after chance. We just weren’t scoring goals. Tonight it just seemed like everything lined up right.”

Remember, when Todd Richards took over as interim head coach on January 9th, Columbus was 11-25-5; since then the Blue Jackets are 13-18-2.

At this point, with nothing to play for other than pride and to have something positive to build upon going into next year, I believe we'll see these teams open it up tonight.

Pressing on the offensive end with defenseman cheating on the rush often leads to breaks the other way.

When taking into account this "situation", you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Jack Jones

Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Thunder have been waiting for this game all season. Oklahoma City hosts the Miami Heat Sunday with a chance to prove that they are for real. I see the Thunder taking full advantage of this opportunity.

The Thunder are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 vs. Eastern Conference. OKC is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss. The Thunder are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Thunder Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

Boston Celtics -10

Boston is finally back home following an 8-game road trip. Motivated by Friday's disappointing 13-point loss in Philly, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong against a team they have owned.

The C's have won all 3 prior meetings with Washington this season, and they have also won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 18.3 points. Boston has also won 6 of its last 7 at home against the Wizards with those 6 wins coming by an average of 15.2 points.

Nothing has motivated the C's quite like a loss to a division rival in recent years. In fact, they are 9-0 ATS off a loss to a division foe over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 12.7 points in these games. The Celtics are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

The Wizards, who are coming off a tough loss to Atlanta yesterday, are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. They are also 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Boston.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the surprise teams this season with 27 wins and currently sitting four in the eastern conference playoff picture. Philly has struggled a bit of late, winning just two of their last five games. However, they do catch the Spurs here this evening playing back-to-back and three games in four nights. The Spurs are 2nd in the western conference, 3 1/2 games behind the Thunder. But two things have me on the Philly side today. First, I have to believe the Spurs will be a bit tired here on Sunday. But also Philly has really done well against San Antonio. If we go back to 2000, the Sixers are 17-4-1 ATS against the Spurs. That is pretty impressive. Granted, the one time they met this season the Spurs won by 10 in Philly. But with no rest and history against them, I will take the visitors here on Sunday.

Dave Cokin

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Miami Heat

Sunday's marquee tilt in the NBA, and maybe even a Finals preview. The road team has been remarkably successful in this series, and with Oklahoma City off that wild battle on Friday, I'd favor the fresher Heat here. Miami gets the nod as today's free play.

JR O'Donnell

Kentucky -8

Double Down Members Move here guys @ 2:20 on these Wildcats by 10 to 13 points........ We feel that the Baylor Bears who check in @ (30-7, 14-15 ATS & 7-7-1 ATS away face the #1 seeded Kentucky Wildcats (35-2, 15-21 ATS & 6-4 ATS away). Baylor uniquely has one of the teams that can compete against the Wildcats in terms of talent. The problem is whether the talent will show up tonight or not. The Bears have shown they can't beat the elite of the Big 12, losing to Mizzou twice, Kansas, Kansas State & Iowa State. They had a relatively weak out of conference schedule. Kentucky on the other hand beat Kansas, Carolina, Louisville (Final Four), Florida (Elite Eight) three times, Vandy twice home and away, Iowa State and Indiana who were all NCAA tourney teams. Wildcats are 9-1 SU last "10" to Bears 6-4 SU last "10", and shoot better from the field (48.7% to 47%) and defend better (36.8% to 41.4%). "8" seems like a large number, but Baylor has droves of talent but plays very inconsistently Power Rated @ - 11.92 points.

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND +144 over Phoenix

The Suns are a .500 ball club. They’re five games below .500 on the road and five games over at home. They’re about as average as they come and they certainly have little appeal laying anything on the road against the Cavaliers. The Suns will play their fourth on the road here. They will also play their 8th game in 11 days. They fly home tonight for a home game against the Spurs on Tuesday and they’re very likely not going to be at their best here. Even at their best, they would be hard-pressed to win at the Q against this up and coming host. Cleveland is inconsistent but when they’re focused and on their game, they can compete with every middle of the pack team. The Cavs have recent wins in Denver and Oklahoma City and a one-point OT loss in Atlanta. Kyrie Irving is a lock for rookie of the year honours. He has literally taken over the fourth quarter on a number of occasions this season and if the Cavs’ are close or ahead going to the final frame, you have to feel pretty good with Irving running the show. We get tremendous value here on the home side against a Phoenix club in a difficult scheduling spot. Play: Cleveland +144 (Risking 2 units).

North Carolina +115 over Kansas

Let’s assume the worst and figure Kendall Marshall can’t go today. Even if he does play, one has to question how effective a guy with a broken bone in his right wrist will be. Whether Marshall plays or not, Roy Williams and staff will be in "crisis management mode". So, without passing whiz Marshall, North Carolina is fine in half-court situations because its starting frontcourt (Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson) will all be cashing super-sized NBA checks sooner rather than later. Look for the defense to step up too. Roy Williams' team plays almost exclusively man-to-man. The Heels' NBA-sized front line blocks a lot of shots and dominates the glass (first nationally in rebounds per game, averaging 45.7), meaning lots of one-and-done possessions for the Jayhawks. North Carolina will lose when a really talented team brings its A-game and knocks down enough 3s to offset the Heels' star-studded front line. Kansas can’t shoot triples and they’re not very good from the charity stripe either. That’s a serious problem that probably should’ve cost them games in this event against Purdue and N.C. State. Had either one of those teams had a killer instinct like the Tar Heels have, we wouldn’t be talking about the Jayhawks. We all saw UNC almost lose to mid-major Ohio on Friday night without Marshall and that has many worried about backing them here. Not us. Kansas has overachieved all year. They’re not weak anywhere but they’re not dominating either and a superior Tar Heels squad laying a reduced number because of Marshall’s status certainly works for us. Play: North Carolina +115 (Risking 2 units).

COLUMBUS +101 over Edmonton

The Oilers season was over in December. They endured many injuries and plenty of losses but they also got a taste of what they’re capable of. This is a young and talented team that is going to be a factor for many years to come and that bright future could start as early as next season. The Oilers have picked up points in six straight games and have to be especially satisfied in beating the Flames and adding to that clubs misery. Edmonton has thrived in the spoiler’s role but this one has no playoff implications whatsoever. The Oil will play their fourth straight on the road in six days after consecutive games in sunny Florida. They return home after this one to face Dallas and Los Angeles, two squads that are battling for its playoff lives. This is also a matinee affair and a satisfied Oiler team is very likely to be a little flat for this one, both emotionally and physically. The Jackets recently won four straight and they’ve also won two of their past three with only loss over that span coming against the red-hot Blackhawks. The Jackets are coming off a 5-1 win over Carolina and they figure to be the more focused and motivated team here after losing 3-0 to Edmonton at Rexall Place just 11 days ago. Win or lose, the wrong side is favored here and we’re stepping in. Play: Columbus +101 (Risking 2 units).

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover against the Miami Heat.

This game is little bigger for Oklahoma City than it is for the Heat. The Thunder are trying to establish themselves as the top dog in west. Against the Heat, there is a real possibility that this could be an NBA Finals preview.

Miami has won its last four games, but has not fared on the road as well. Against teams with a winning record, the Heat is 1-4 on the road.

Against the Thunder, the Heat will face a high-scoring team. At home, Oklahoma City averages 107.7 points a game, while giving up 97.6 points. The Heat’s scoring has gone down as in its last five games. Miami is averaging 92.8 points a game in that stretch.

Also, at home Oklahoma City has been tough, going 21-4.
Take the Thunder.

3♦ THUNDER