CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is Kentucky/Baylor OVER the total.
Totals are sometimes hard to figure out, but this one seems like a slam dunk. Kentucky can score against anyone, anytime and any place. They have the best athletes in the country who have already claimed they are going to the NBA next year.
Baylor is all about their offensive play, not spending a ton of time worrying about their defense or changing things up. Not to say they can't play defense if they need to, but when push comes to shove, the Bears want to outscore you, period.
They will give Kentucky some problems in the paint with Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III because the Wildcat starters don't want to get into foul trouble.
On the other end, Kentucky has converted 30 or more field goals in all three games thus far, and Baylor doesn't play the kind of lock down defense you need to play in order to compete in a game vs. a team like this.
Should be fun to watch with two very athletic teams... but all I care about is the final score. I expect both teams, at the very least, in the high 70s... but I believe Kentucky should score 80+ like they have in all of their games thus far.
Free play of the day on Kentucky/Baylor OVER the total.
2♦ BAYLOR/KENTUCKY OVER
CHRIS JORDAN
Surprisingly, after running the numbers in this showdown between upstart Baylor and perennial powerhouse Kentucky, I'm showing this game falling under the posted number of 148.
Here's the way I look at this: Baylor generally has one option to turn to, and that's to shoot the lights, and score a ton of points with its inside-outside game, and stellar field-goal percentage. Its defense is okay, but nothing special to brag about.
On the other hand, Kentucky is about as well-balanced as they come. It's why the Wildcats were seeded No. 1 overall, even after losing the SEC title game, it's why the oddsmakers made them the favorite to win it all and it's why they're probably going to win this game. But I'm not about to lay -8 points in a regional final contest that I'm taking under. Playing the low means a tight game an the dog could cover, right?
Nah, this is a sketchy 8-point spread I'm staying away from.
But I have no trouble playing the under, when I know the Wildcats rank 23rd in the nation with their scoring defense, allowing just 60.4 points per game. As I said, Baylor is wonderful at taking the high-percentage shot; problem for these grizzlies is Kentucky is the No. 1 team in the nation with its field-goal percentage D - opponents shoot a paltry 37.5 percent against the 'Cats. Kentucky also outrebounds teams, ranking ninth overall with a 7.3 margin, and No. 1 in the country with 8.6 blocked shots per game.
Now, before this comes across as a ringing endorsement for John Calipari's boys, the Bears aren't too shabby on the defensive end either, limiting foes to 41.5 percent shooting from the field, outrebounding teams by a 5.5 margin, swatting 4.7 shots per game and robbing 7.6 steals in each contest.
Yeah, even though Baylor has gone over in all three tournament games, and the 'Cats have soared in their last two, I'm not even scared about going against the grain in this one.
Forget the trends, they don't matter. Both teams know the only shot they have at moving on in the bracket to take on Louisville in one of the two National Semifinals next Saturday is to stop the other team's offensive game. I'm playing this one low.
4♦ BAYLOR/KENTUCKY UNDER
MATT RIVERS
With a ticket to New Orleans hanging in the balance, expect Kansas and North Carolina to open their game in the Edward Jones Dome just a little tight, and expect this game to hold Under the posted total.
Kansas comes into this showdown having played Unders in all three of their tournament games, and they are now 17-4 Under the total in their last 21 big dance tourney games.
North Carolina will be compromised scoring-wise with the injury to Kendall Marshall at the point, and their first game without him was an Under on Friday against Ohio. Heck, the game even went into overtime, and the teams still stayed low!
Three of the Tar Heels last five games have stayed Under the posted total, and without Marshall executing the offense, this round of eight game has the making for another low-scoring affair.
Play the low in Kansas-North Carolina this Sunday afternoon.
2♦ UNDER
CHUCK O'BRIEN
I know the line is set high for a pair of high-scoring teams, but that doesn't mean anything to me. It's not going to scare me at all off this play.
While Oakland's Reggie Hamilton leads the nation in scoring with 26.3 points per game, I know how stringent Utah State's defense can be, because of coach Stew Morrill, who will be emphatic about slowing the game down. It's a key aspect for Utah State, and shouldn't be too hard in the second halves of each half.
See, if Oakland does get out on the break, or does try to speed things, it's going to have some issues with the altitude as the game. So by slowing this one down, and taking the Griffins out of their game, the Aggies just might find themselves in Wednesday night’s title game against Mercer.
Aggies win, that game would be right here at the Spectrum, in Logan.
Oakland has stayed under in four of its last five outings, while the Aggies have followed three straight unders with four overs in a row. Bout time they slow it down. Look for this one to stay low.
2♦ UNDER
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the Phoenix Suns as the road favorite at Cleveland.
Phoenix is making a late push for a playoff spot in the West, and they do come to Quicken Loans Arena having won 12 of their last 17 games straight up. The Suns have also covered eight of their last ten contests with teams from the Central Division, and have a little payback in mind, as Cleveland was able to win outright 101-90 as the road underdog back in January in the valley of the sun.
The Cavs are struggling on their home floor of late, as they have failed eight of their last ten on their home hardwood. Overall, Cleveland is on a 1-5 straight up slide entering play this Sunday afternoon, and just 2-4 against the spread in their last six contests.
Series trends show the favorite sporting an 11-3 mark the last fourteen times the teams have met.
Stick with the favorite in this one, Suns the call minus the road wood.
3♦ PHOENIX
Mike Lineback
Philadelphia 76ers +4
San Antonio are in a brutal scheduling spot, playing b2b2b & 4 games in 5 nights with travel. Duncan, Splitter & Neal are out for the Spurs. Parker played 38 minutes on a tight hamstring last night, hence, his minutes may be limited. Meanwhile, Philly are rested, have a deep & talented bench & play high intesity defense for 48 minutes. SA squeaked by an undermanned New Orleans team on Saturday, but not tonight.
Wunderdog
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Denver Nuggets +1
A tough spot for the home team. Minnesota comes home from Friday night's game at Oklahoma City, an epic 149-140 double OT loss. They allowed 53% shooting for the game, which is normal, allowing 99.2 ppg -- 25th in the NBA. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. They are also 17-35 ATS in their last 52 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 19-41 ATS in their last 60 home games against a team with a winning road record. And into town come the attacking, uptempo Denver Nuggets, No. 1 in the NBA in points scored and assists. Denver is sitting with the No. 8 playoff slot and needs a win after giving up 121 at Utah. The Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog. And the Nuggets are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Minnesota. Play Denver.