DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES VS PIRATES
PLAY: PIRATES -130
The whole idea for me as far as pre-season baseball goes is pretty much the same philosophy as I’ll utilize come NFL exhibition season. The info is generally a little more reliable in football, but I actually believe the advantage might be greater in baseball because it’s often not in the betting line.
Today’s Orioles-Pirates game is a good example. If I’m wrong on my assessments, I can always buy out as the lineups will get posted before the game gets played. If I’m right about my lineup projections, I suspect this line jumps to -145 or -150. So I went ahead and played it early at -130.
The Orioles are a good bet to sit several regulars today, as the Baltimore stars have logged a bunch of innings and at bats the last couple days. Makes perfect sense for Buck Showalter to leave those guys home with this being a road game on a Sunday. That’s not always the pattern in pre-season, but it is more often than it isn’t.
Ubaldo Jimenez will start for Baltimore, and I know this will come as a real shock to all, but he’s having command issues this spring. So I’ve got the eternally erratic Ubaldo pitching with what could be a somewhat patchwork lineup behind him. The Orioles will also likely try to get Brian Matusz an inning here, and he’s off an injury. That’s fade material.
The Pirates could also sit some stars on Sunday, and in fact I’ll be mildly surprised if any of their three regular outfielders play here. Polanco and Marte each have minor injuries, and McCutchen has a sore quad, although he played on Saturday.
But I like them on the pitching side in this game. Trevor Williams will start for the Pirates. The Bucs like this former Marlins second-rounder and reports on his his spring efforts are encouraging, even though he won’t be making the jump to the majors just yet.
I’m also anticipating that the Pirates will have Tony Watson and Mark Melancon in action today. Neither has worked since Wednesday, and unless there’s something wrong that I’m sure not aware of, I’d definitely anticipate an inning from each of the two bullpen studs today.
My thinking is that in game where it would logically make sense for several regulars to be sitting for both teams, the pitching decides this one. Going against Ubaldo is sure no problem, and figuring on two innings at some point from Watson and Melancon, particularly against what could be backups and/or minor leaguers, is a nice little edge. It’s all about gaining an advantage at a fair price, and I think I’ve got that here with the Pirates.
John Ryan
NJIT vs. Columbia
Play:Columbia -10
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Columbia will win this game by more than 14 points. For a semifinal gamer in any level of Tournament action, this is a significant mismatch. Columbia has match edges in all of the major aspects of a basketball game. They shoot better, move the ball better, execute at a much higher efficiency rate and shoot far better from then free throw line.
Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Fundamental Discussion Points Columbia ranks 35th in the nation with a 1.137 shooting efficiency quotient and will executing against a NJIT defense that ranks 193rd with a 1.079 opponent shooting efficiency quotient. Further, Columbia ranks 35th with a 54% effective shooting percentage and NJIT ranks 235th with a 51.2% opponent effective shooting percentage. Perhaps, most important in this matchup is the fact that Columbia ranks 19th in the nation averaging just 10.9 turnovers per game. By comparison, NJIT ranks 193rd in the same category. Take Columbia.
Bob Harvey
Philadelphia at Golden State
Play: Under 225½
It’s first vs. worst in Oakland as the Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is slated for 8 PM ET at Oracle Arena.
Golden State needs to win eight of its final 10 games to finish 73-9, which would mark the most prolific season in NBA history, while Philadelphia must win one of its final 10 contests to avoid matching its own record for futility in an 82-game season of 9-73 set in 1972-73.
The Sixers (9-64, 33-39-1 ATS) must win one of its final 10 contests to avoid matching its own record for futility in an 82-game season of 9-73 set in 1972-73.
The Warriors (65-7, 40-30-2 ATS) have won 52 straight regular-season games at home — the longest streak in NBA history — and need seven more victories to become the first team to finish a season undefeated at home, although San Antonio (37-0) is in line to accomplish the feat first. Golden State defeated Dallas 128-120 on Friday on the strength of 21 3-pointers, giving it 938 this season to break yet another record.
The Warriors are the NBA's highest-scoring team at 115.4 points per game while the 76ers are last at 97.0.
The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Oakland but are 4-0 in their last four vs. the Pacific Division. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and 7-2-1 vs. the number when playing on one day’s rest.
The favorite is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 20-7 in the past 27.
Philly is 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six overall and 4-1 to the low side in its last five road outings.
Marc Lawrence
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
Edges - Pacers: 7-1-1 ATS off a loss in this series when Houston is off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home. Rockets: 1-8 ATS versus foe off a SU favorite loss this season, including 0-3 ATS away. With the Pacers off a road loss last night and Houston off an upset home dog win, look for Indiana to avenge loss suffered at Houston earlier this season. We recommend a 1* play on Indiana.
Larry Ness
Cal-Irvine at Coastal Carolina
Prediction: Coastal Carolina
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are coached by veteran Cliff Ellis, who took this school to the Big Dance in both 2014 and 2015, the FOURTH school Ellis has taken to the NCAA tournament (others are South Alabama, Clemson and Auburn). This year’s squad owns four double digit scorers in starting guards Wilson (13.9-4.0) and Shaw (11.3-3.9 APG) plus guard Wiggins (12.6-3.6 APG) and the 6-6 Diagne (11.2-7.0), both of whom come off the bench. Ray St-Cyr (8.3-5.7) starts in the backcourt with Wilson and Shaw, while the 6-7 Curtis (6.1-67.0) and the 6-8 Freeman (5.9-5.7) start up front, giving Ellis a quality seven-man rotation.
Cal-Irvine tied Hawaii for first during the Big West regular season (13-3) but after beating Long Beach State the first two times the schools met this season, lost 77-72 in the Big West Conference Tournament semifinals to the 49ers. In this “less-than-whole” tourney (CIT was able to fill just 26 of 32 berths), the Anteaters have had to win just twice to reach the semifinals. However, Cal-Irvine has had to play both games on the road, a three-point OT victory at North Dakota and a 67-66 win at UL-Lafayette. The team’s 7-6, 300-lb Mamadou Ndiaye (12.2-7.1-2.4 BPG) missed the ULL victory with a bruised knee but is expected to be available in this one. The good news for Cal-Irvine has been that its other big men, the 7-2 Dimakopoulos (5.3-2.7) and the 6-10 Best (9.6-5.1), have combined for 43 points, 19 rebounds and six blocks in the first two rounds of the CIT.
This Cal-Irvine team played in the Big Dance last year and takes a 27-9 record this year into this contest, loaded with returnees from last year’s squad. That’s especially true in the backcourt with starters Nelson (13.7-3.9 APG) and Young (10.5-4.1-4.4) plus Martin (8.6), a sparkplug off the bench who has scored 15 & 12 in the two CIT games. However, while Coastal Carolina has needed three games to advance this far (compared to Irvine’s two), the Chanticleers haven’t had to leave home. Adding three home wins in this tourney gives Coastal Carolina a 14-3 home record this season, losing just one-point league contests to Liberty and High Point, plus a three-point decision to Auburn of the SEC.
The Chanticleers have held their first three CIT foes to an average of 59.0 PPG on 35.2 percent shooting. So what else is new? Coastal Carolina’s defensive will enter this contest allowing 39.3 percent to rank 13th in the nation, including 30.1% on threes, which ranks 8th. Throw in a little Myrtle Beach home cookin' and I expect the Chanticleers to be playing in Tuesday’s CIT championship game. This home dog will ‘bark’ LOUDLY!
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia vs. Golden State
Play: Over 226
The Warriors have posted overs in 14 of 21 as a home favorite of more than 12. The Sixers have 3 straight overs on the road with no rest off a road game. Home favorites of 10 or more league wide that are off a spread loss as a home favorite of 10 or more while scoring and allowing 120 or more have gone over 12 of 13 times vs a team off a road game. Look for this one to be high scoring here today.
Jim Feist
Philadelphia at Golden State
Pick: Philadelphia
Philadelphia is no threat to topple Golden State here, but the Warriors won't be worried, either. Golden State is 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning percentage below .400. This is a game the home team will have fun on offense, running it up and padding their offensive stats. The 76ers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Western Conference. When these teams met in January Golden State was a 17-point favorite and went through the motions, winning 108-105.
Scott Rickenbach
NJIT vs. Columbia
Play: Columbia -9
This line was as high as a 10.5 and has now dropped to a 9 as of Easter Sunday morning. This is offering some extra line value with a Lions team that already beat the Highlanders by 9 in a regular season match-up where they turned the ball over 14 times compared to just 8 turnovers for NJIT. Columbia is normally the better team when it comes to turnover margin and I expect a much cleaner game from the Lions on Sunday where they win the turnover margin plus win in the battle at the cashiers' window! The Highlanders are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 140 to 144.5 points. The Lions are on a long-term run of 51-32 ATS in non-conference games as they tend to be undervalued and I strongly believe that is the case again here.
Dave Essler
Syracuse +8
First off, let's forget the teams for a second and look at the numbers. If the game might see 124 points (which is the total currently after opening at 122) then let's assume that's spot-on (everyone likes the over because UVA has been scoring at will). At +8 they are giving us, before the tip, a decent chunk of the games' total points. That's almost always something to at least consider. For example, in the other game today at +10 (which I think closes lower) they're giving you one more possession (two more points for the dog) with a projected total of 30 more points. So, "value", if you will. These teams know each other well, both being from the ACC - UVA beat the Orange by exactly 8 points at home back in January. Syracuse is a better team now - UVA is perhaps, but on the road (OK, neutral). Syracuse has been playing too well not to take these points. To end the regular season they lost by five AT North Carolina and by five AT FSU (two up tempo teams which obviously UVA is not). They then lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to Pitt by one - that also gave them a ton of rest and prep time for this run. They put up 71 against a great Dayton defense in round one - they held a great three point shooting team (MTSU) to 33% from deep. They scored more than both Seton Hall and Utah did against Gonzaga, only shot 37% from inside and had HALF as many assists as Gonzaga, yet won the game. That's an indicator of toughness (coaching) that a team can win with it's "B" game. Yes, UVA is who they are, a great team, a well-coached team - and great individual players. PERHAPS they expended a bit more energy playing an up-tempo Iowa State team than the Orange did against the Zags. PERHAPS the short bench that Syracuse has will be far less of an issue in a game that should be played very slow. If UVA has ANY "weakness" or better put something they are just "OK" at, it's defending the perimeter - Syracuse can shoot three's well. I'll take my chances.
Bob Balfe
North Carolina -10
Both #1 teams are on notice today as both yesterday went down. Notre Dame and Syracuse I thought were the two teams that did not deserve a shot at the final four of the eight teams left when we started the elite 8. I think Notre Dame is playing on borrowed time and just won’t be able to control UNC getting offensive rebound after offensive rebound. UNC dominated this game just a few weeks ago. What has changed since then? Look for a blowout. Take North Carolina.
Virginia -8
I give credit for Syracuse to be in this spot playing today. This team is well coached, but they just don’t have the power offense to stop Virginia and ever since this Cavs team has inserted a smaller line up the scoring has skyrocketed. UVA shot over 50% the last time these teams got together and on defense I expect them to have their way with the Orange. Syracuse goes through too many scoring droughts for me to give them a chance in this game. This UVA defense is no joke and should frustrate the Orange from start to finish. Take Virginia.
Mike Lundin
Nuggets vs. Clippers
Play: Nuggets +8½
The Denver Nuggets won't make the playoffs, but they've far from given up on the season and are winners of three of their past four contests. They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 32-23 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Los Angeles Clippers are guaranteed to make the playoffs and are sitting pretty in the No. 4 seed in the West. They're off a dramatic 96-94 win against Portland Thursday but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days rest.
Denver coach Mike Malone is giving the most time to the players that play the hardest and are giving maximum effort despite the team being out of the playoff race, and I like their chances of pulling an upset here against a contented Clippers team.
Jimmy Boyd
Nuggets vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -8
The perception is the Clippers are content right now, as they are sitting in 4th place in the west with a 4-game lead over the Grizzlies. While their backs are clearly not against the wall, I look for this team to come out strong at home against the Nuggets. LA needs to get some momentum going into the playoffs and can't be happy about the 4-7 stretch over their last 11.
The Clippers will also be playing with revenge in this one. The Nuggets came into the Staples Center and beat LA 87-81 as a 11-point dog back on 2/24. Denver comes in having won 2 straight, but lets not get carried away. Those two victories came against two of the worst teams in the league in the 76ers and Lakers.
LA is 48-29 ATS in their last 77 when they come into a game having failed to cover 8 or more of their last 10 games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 when revenging a home loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less points. Denver on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a road win and 1-4 ATS off a road win by 10 or more this season.
Brandon Lee
Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -2
Indiana is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. The Pacers are coming off an ugly 110-120 loss at Brooklyn yesterday, which they blew an 8-point lead going into the 4th quarter (outscored 35-17 in 4th). I look for them to come out highly motivated at home after that performance and that should lead to an easy cover against the Rockets. Houston comes in off a 112-109 win at home against the Raptors, but had lost 3 straight prior to the victory. This is also a big lookahead spot for the Rockets with a road game against the Cavaliers on deck Tuesday. Pacers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss.
Jack Jones
Nuggets vs. Clippers
Play: Nuggets +8.5
The Denver Nuggets have been extremely tough in the second half of the season. Now they are getting 8.5 points from the Los Angeles Clippers, who are really stuck in a funk right now. There is nice value here with the underdog Nuggets as a result.
The Clippers are kind of stuck in La La Land right now. They are the #4 seed in the West, 6 games behind the #3 Thunder and 4 games ahead of the #5 Grizzlies. So essentially they are locked into the #4 seed. That's going to make it hard for them to be motivated going forward.
In fact, the Clippers have shown a serious lack of motivation already for a couple weeks. They are 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are overvalued time and time again, and that's the case again tonight. The Nuggets are actually 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Denver is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Nuggets are 13-3 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs this season. Denver is 15-3 ATS versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games playing on 2 days rest. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Will Rogers
Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Rockets +2
The Houston Rockets and the Indiana Pacers are both seventh in their respective conference fighting to hold on to a playoff spot. The Rockets ended a three-game skid with a 112-109 win against Toronto Friday, and I like them to make the most of that momentum at Bankers Life Fieldhouse Sunday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational - The Pacers lost 120-110 at Brooklyn last night and can't be too thrilled of the prospect of taking on the high-paced Rockets here in the tail of back-to-back set. They're 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on no rest and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
2. Previous Meetings - The Rockets have won four straight in the series and covered the spread in each win. They picked up a 107-103 overtime win when they hosted the Pacers back in January.
3. X-Factor - James Harden registered his third triple-double this season with 32 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds Friday. He scored 44 points in last season's victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. He missed the Rockets' practice Saturday due to illness, but I sincerely doubt he'll sit out a single game at this stage of the season.