Dave Price
Mavs vs. Kings
Play: Mavs Pk
At 35-37 on the season, the Dallas Mavericks are currently in 9th place in the West. They are just 0.5 games behind the Utah Jazz for the #8 seed. They know they cannot afford to lose games like this to the Kings, and they will bring their "A" game tonight as a result. The Kings are just 4-13 in their last 17 games overall, and they've been playing like they have nothing to play for, which is the case. Dallas is 14-4 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento is 3-12 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Jesse Schule
Chicago vs. Vancouver
Play: Over 5
The Vancouver Canucks appear to have packed it in, coming in as losers of seven straight. They host the Chicago Blackhawks tonight, and Chicago needs just one point to clinch a playoff spot. The Blackhawks have been sliding in the standings, and they run the risk of playing on the road in the first round of the playoffs. They've been riding their backup netminder while Corey Crawford is sidelined by an upper body injury. Scott Darling has surrendered 10 goals while losing three of his last five starts, and he was pulled from a 6-2 loss to Dallas on Tuesday after giving up four goals in the first period. He bounced back with a solid game last night in Calgary, but might be hard pressed to follow that up with another good showing on the road on back to back nights. The Blackhawks have trended toward high scoring games away from Chicago, with the over going 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games. Special teams could play a roll in pushing this total over, as Chicago owns one of the league's most potent power-plays, yet ranks among the worst in the league on the penalty kill. There was a time that there was no greater rivalry in the league than Chicago vs. Vancouver, and we might see a hint of that here at Rogers Arena tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Syracuse +8 over Virginia
These two Elite Eight combatants met earlier this year, where Virginia defeated Syracuse on January 24th, 73-65 in Charlottesville. That eight-point margin of victory is precisely the same number you will have to spot the Orange here if you’re interested in backing the Midwest’s #1 seed. We’re not interested for several reasons. For one, that last game occurred in Virginia two months ago and the Cavs had a slim one-point lead very late in the game. The Orange are in much better form now and they are also a more confident group. There is no question that the Cavaliers are a great team with a chance to win it all but they are not built to blow away opponents. Even in their win against Iowa State in which the Cavs appeared to be dominating the entire game, they could never really pull away from the Cyclones. Virginia built an early 15-point lead over ISU and could never really extend it although they would maintain it most of the way. In the round of 32, Virginia defeated Butler, a 9 seed, by eight points. Furthermore, the total here is just 124. When a teams’ output is projected to be in the low 60’s, spotting eight points with said team would not be the prudent thing to do.
Syracuse is unlike most 10 seeds but when you start the season with 10-7 record and losses in each of your first four conference games, that’s what you are. Now that the Orange have responded, they’re a scary matchup for a high seed. Defensively, the Orange are a team of extremes, as usual. Their 2-3 zone will always give up a host of offensive rebounds but they compensate by forcing turnovers on 20.5 percent of opponents’ possessions. Similarly, the cliché is that the zone gives up 3-pointers, but it actually gives up bad 3-pointers. Opponents take 41.2 percent of their shots from deep but hit just 29.9 percent, the 12th-lowest mark in the country. Taking 3-pointers against the Cuse’s zone, in other words, is fool’s gold, because they don’t come from the most efficient spots and tend to be generated by side-to-side passes, rather than inside-out ones (which lead to cleaner looks).
Offensively, Syracuse has increased its variance by taking a ton of 3s of its own. Trevor Cooney, Michael Gbinije and Malachi Richardson all launch at least six treys per game. And even though the Orange don’t box out on D, they pursue their own misses, grabbing 34.7 percent of available offensive boards. (Tyler Roberson is a monster on the offensive glass, with a 15.6 percent offensive rebound rate.) Add it all up and Syracuse has an outstanding chance to pull off an upset and of course an even better chance to cover this number.
North Carolina -9½ over Notre Dame
In Thursday afternoon’s press conferences before its game against the Hoosiers, North Carolina head coach Roy Williams was mum about his defensive matchups. However, Marcus Paige was more open, exclaiming that Joel Berry would at least start by covering Yogi Ferrell. Well, Berry did start on Ferrell, and Paige never switched onto him. That left Paige open to concentrate on his offense, and boy did he. He started by hitting his first shot, a three; then his second, another three; he kept going until he began 4-of-4 from behind the arc, reminding us of his shooting touch from his prior Carolina seasons. Paige’s Tar Heel teammates joined in the outside onslaught, as they shot six of their first six from three and finished 11-of-20 from distance. They shot 51.6 percent from the floor as a team. Indiana didn’t stand a chance. If North Carolina shoots like that, no one in the country is going to beat them. And UNC didn’t even excel at the other things it normally does: rebounding, points in the paint, fast-break points. Indiana played it pretty evenly in those aspects. But, ironically, the Hoosiers couldn’t hang with Carolina from the outside. They began pressing with just under five minutes remaining in the game, but the deficit was already 20, and it was too little too late. Notre Dame and Indiana are similar in styles.
In the bottom half of the East regional, for the third straight round, a match was more of a rock fight than a basketball game. In the contest between Notre Dame and Wisconsin though, even the rocks were missing. Neither team shot better than 35 percent in the first half, but it wasn’t thanks to great defense. Both teams were getting into the paint and getting open threes; they were simply missing. The second half was where Wisconsin and Notre Dame came alive a bit. The Irish shot 57.7 percent in the game’s second half to close the gap. Then they made the biggest plays down the stretch to win. Demetrius Jackson had a pretty bad game overall. He forced a number of bad shots when a lob to Zach Auguste would have been preferable and was open, but Jackson did make the two biggest plays of the game: two steals in the final 30 seconds to grab the lead and then secure the lead and the win. The Badger defense rotated numerous players onto Auguste all game, and ND really shied away from getting him touches. He finished with just nine field-goal attempts, and many of those were off second chances. Roy Williams will study that film and employ similar strategies to contain Auguste.
The total in this one is 155½ so it is much safer to spot big lumber with a number like that hanging over this game than it would be in the earlier matchup. One of these teams is likely to put up 80 or more and we’re pretty sure it won’t the Irish. Notre Dame was on the verge of elimination in this tournament not once, not twice but all three games, as Michigan, Stephen F and Wisky all had the Irish on the ropes. The step up in class here that the Irish will take is of mammoth proportions. The Irish were down by eight to the Badgers and needed two turnovers in the final 30 seconds to win it. They have been skating on thin ice this entire tournament. Notre Dame has pulled a rabbit out of its hat in all three games so far and while we respect what the Irish are capable of offensively, their defense, rebounding and ability to create turnovers is brutal. Those three things that the Irish don’t do leave them prone to a blowout and that’s what we’re suggesting happens here.
SPS Investors
Syracuse vs. Virginia
Pick: Syracuse
This is an extremely interesting matchup between two teams who like to play similar styles of basketball. Defense is the top priority of both teams and this game has all of the makings of a low scoring, defensive battle. Not many people are giving the Syracuse Orange a chance to knock off the #1 seeded Virginia, but we don't believe people should be looking past the Orange in this contest. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim is one of the most experience coaches in the country and he's done everything right in leading his team to this point. His vaunted 2-3 zone defense has been air tight in the tournament as his team is allowing just an average of 53.7 points per game in this tournament.
These two teams met earlier this season in what was a closely contested battle. The Cavaliers managed to come away with a 73-65 victory at home back on January 24th. The Orange didn't have a solid game plan heading into that matchup as they continually shot from distance. 30 of their 54 shot attempts in that game came from beyond the arc. They also weren't very disciplined on defense as they allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 57% from the field. The Orange's defense has no doubt improved since that meeting and we expect them to do a much better job of keeping the Virginia players out of the paint. If Syracuse can "muddy" this game up on the defensive side of the ball, they should be able to keep this contest competitive.
Syracuse is a much more experience team than their counterparts, especially with Boeheim guiding them from the sideline. There is no question that he will have his team ready and confident in this matchup tonight. The Cavaliers have yet to play a defense as solid as the Cuse in this tournament and that may cause their offense to sputter enough to allow the Orange to stay within what we believe is a generous number. The points have value in this contest.
California Sports
UC Irvine/Coastal Carolina Under 133.5
Both reams prefer to play at a slower pace as Irvine is #227 and Coastal Carolina is #249 in adjusted tempo.Irvine is one of the nations top teams in defensive FG% allowing only 38.6% and no other team has a front line that can play three 7 footers including 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye who has been limited the past few games and will contribute more tonight. On the flipside Coastal's starting PG Shivaughn Wiggins was arrested YESTERDAY meaning the team was prepping for this game with him running the offense. While they have a capable backup it hurts the depth and can they really press the tempo?
Wunderdog
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Pick: Notre Dame +9.5
North Carolina is on a roll, but a talented, experienced, and balanced Notre Dame squad matches up well. Notre Dame finished third in the ACC in field goal shooting and three-pointers, fifth in free throws, plus second in defensive efficiency. They have a veteran backcourt behind junior point guard Demetrius Jackson (15.5 points per game, 4.7 assists per game) and a strong frontcourt with 6-10 senior Zach Auguste (14.3 points, 10.9 rebounds per contest), and 6-8 junior forward V.J. Beachem (11.9 points per game). Beachem has been a major factor in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 17.3 points in three games, and draining nine of 17 from 3-point range. They can play the physical game inside against North Carolina, and the Tar Heels were the worst three-point shooting team in the ACC this season, a weak spot that will hurt in this one. The teams have split six games since Notre Dame joined the ACC, including an 80-76 Irish victory earlier this season as a dog. Look for another close one all the way and grab the dog.
Ari Atari
Devils vs. Hurricanes
Play: Devils +109
New Jersey is sneaky good. They'll take this one on the back of a hot young goalie and guys like Henrique (27g) and Palmieri (29g). Greene has played well and Hines has these guys buying into his system. Look for a tight checking counter attack that'll keep Carolina tentative. Devils keep their playoff hopes alive with a hard fought win.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +108 over CAROLINA
OT included. It’s no secret that we’ve been big supporters of the Hurricanes all season and it comes with good reason. Carolina has been undervalued and underrated this entire year but they are a dog almost every game. As the chalk, the Hurricanes are unappealing at best because they don’t win enough games, nor do they score enough goals. There is also the issue of OT. The total in this game in 5u -120 so there is a good chance of this one going to OT or it being a 2-1 type game. We mention that because the Hurricanes have 15 losses this year in extra time. OT is supposed to be a 50/50 proposition and for the most part it is but Carolina is the exception. When the game goes into OT, their mindset changes like they expect to lose and they usually do. The Hurricanes have one win this season when the game goes to a shootout. Lastly, the Hurricanes played last night against the Islanders in what was a lively building with plenty of excitement. Carolina lost, in OT no less, but that game ended at 10:00 PM EST. and this one goes off at 5:00 PM EST. That’s an unusual scheduling spot and one that the players are unaccustomed to. Take these players out of routine and it usually ends up being a sub-par effort.
In three games since his call-up, Scott Westwood has been brilliant between the pipes for the Devils. The kid has allowed just one goal in regulation over those three starts. The Devils went 2-1 in those games with only loss coming in OT on Friday against the Capitals (why are we always on the losing end of these OT games)? In any case, New Jersey has won five of eight. They’re coming off games against Dallas, Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, Pittsburgh (x2), Columbus (x2) and Washington. That’s a stretch of games against some difficult teams with strong offenses and while the Hurricanes are sound defensively, they are still an offensively challenged group, just like the Devils are. So, this one is likely going to come down to goaltending because that’s what decides most games in this league. In that regard, we’re more than happy to take a kid on a roll against Cam Ward’s brutal season. We’re also happy to roll with the Devils should this one go into extra time.
N.Y. RANGERS -115 over Pittsburgh
OT included. Our position on the Rangers has not changed one bit. We are still waiting for the playoffs to begin to fade these imposters with a 100 unit play against them (ok, we’re embellishing the units part) because they are not playoff worthy nor is their style of play conducive to winning playoff series. That discussion will come later but for this one game, this line will dictate this play.
Two weeks ago to the day at MSG, the Penguins and Rangers played a game and the Pens opened as a -105 favorite. The Rangers were pounded as a home dog and the Pens won 5-3. Today, the Pens stock is higher than it was two weeks ago and now the books opened with the Rangers as a -135 favorite. Does that make any sense to anyone because it sure doesn’t make sense to us?
The Penguins are on fire with five wins in their past six games, capped off by yesterday’s 7-2 blowout win over the Red Wings. A 7-2 score in the NHL sticks out like a sore thumb, especially in a game of that magnitude and the market has reacted. This game goes at 8:30 PM EST and it will be featured on NBC. We can assure you that the oddsmakers did not put out a bad number here. When you do the logic and apply it correctly, there is only one conclusion that can be made. The oddsmakers have dangled a Pittsburgh carrot here and most are biting. We’re not going to take the bait. Instead, we are going to wait much closer to game time to pull the trigger here, as we anticipate that this line is going to drop plenty more. Therefore, this wager is contingent upon the line dropping to the Rangers being a -115 favorite or less. We’ll update this one later to make it official. For now, no bets but we expect that to change closer to game time. Stay tuned.
Bruce Marshall
Penguins at Rangers
Pick: Rangers
Pittsburgh comes winging into MSG on the heels of a 7-2 blowout win over Detroit on Saturday, as the Pens appeared agitated after a 3-0 loss to the Devils in their previous outing. That followed a stretch of six straight wins. But the Rangers are on their own uptick with three straight wins, including 4-2 last night in Montreal, and have won 5 of the last 7 in this series at MSG. Note that Derek Brassard has 23 points in his last 25 games against Pittsburgh, including 13 in 12 at MSG. He has one point in each of the past seven matchups there. Henrik Lundqvist, 21-5-2 with a 2.17 GAA at home, owns a 1.95 GAA while winning five of his last seven there against the Penguins, including four playoff matchups. He's likely back in goal tonight after Antti Raanta worked last night's win over the Canadiens.