Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 27,2011

Marc Lawrence

New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets fly into Los Angeles with triple revenge on their minds from a trio of losses suffered this season against the Lakers knowing New Orleans is 5-0 ATS on this floor with playing off a SU dog loss. In addition the Hornets are 14-7-1 ATS in its last 22 games when seeking same season triple revenge. With Kobe and company just 9-16 ATS as home chalk off a win this season, we'll grab the points with New Orleans here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.

MTi Sports

Mavericks at Suns
Prediction: Over

The Mavericks are 10-0 OU (19.1 ppg) when playing the second of back-to-back road games after winning the first and 9-0 OU (12.7 ppg) as a road favorite when they held their opponent to fewer than 80 points in their last game. The Suns are 11-0 OU (19.5 ppg) as a dog when facing a team they lost to as a home dog in their previous same-season match-up.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Kentucky at North Carolina

North Carolina gave up 85 PPG in the first two tournament games before blowing out Marquette Friday night. The Tar Heels have also scored at least 81 points in all three tournament games now. When these teams met in the regular season, with a similar O/U line, they went Over the total. Kentucky is 13-4 Over after allowing 65 points or less in five straight games.

Play on: Over

Craig Trapp

Mavericks vs. Suns
Play: Over 208.5

Phoenix is 3-0 on overs last three games and head to head last time out these two score 218 in early FEB. DAL has been money on overs on the road going 11-3 on overs L14 road games. DAL and PHO both can go for 120 on any night and this prime time game we have listed at DAL 115- PHO 108

Scott Spreitzer

San Antonio @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis -2

The San Antonio Spurs and their legendary pick-and-roll, rolled to the league's best record seemingly without breaking a sweat. But the loss of Tim Duncan has severely hampered their chosen offensive style. I expect problems on the defensive end as well on Sunday. Memphis can do damage in the paint on the offensive end and without Duncan, the Spurs just don't have the capable "bigs" to offer enough resistance. The Grizzlies have played the Spurs well this season and that was with Duncan on the floor. San Antone won the first two meetings, both at home, but the Grizzlies got the money in both. The Grizzlies slammed the Spurs 109-93 in Memphis on March 1, and they have now covered four straight meetings, going back to last season, winning twice outright. I believe the line is too low considering the circumstances, not to mention the Grizzlies recent success in this series. I'm laying the points with Memphis on Sunday.

LARRY NESS

Atlanta @ Cleveland
PICK: Cleveland +6

The Cavaliers set an NBA record this year by losing 26 consecutive games, ending that ‘ugly’ streak with a 126-119 home OT win over the Clippers. That win began a stretch in which the Cavs have gone 6-12 SU and 10-8 ATS. That may not seem like much but compared to the team's 8-45 SU and woeful 19-32-2 ATS run prior to that, it’s definitely an improvement. The Hawks have clinched a playoff spot but have played themselves out of any chance to catch the Magic for the fourth seed (have fallen six games back of Orlando). Atlanta is off a 98-87 win over New Jersey last night at home but Joe Johnson strained his right thumb in the third quarter and didn’t return. “It’s just sore,” Johnson said. “I can’t really do much with it as far as catch the basketball.” Johnson was signed to a ‘max’ contract by the Hawks in the off season and has ‘rewarded’ the team by averaging 18.5 PPG this year, the lowest in his six seasons with the Hawks. All that said, the Hawks can ill-afford to have him on the sidelines for too long. The team has won back-to-back games just TWICE since the All Star break and since winning three straight to open February, has gone just 8-14. Atlanta’s offenses has gone ‘south’ as well, scoring 91 points or less in 10 of its last 15 games. The Cavs are looking for two straight wins as well, coming off a a 97-91 home win over Detroit on Friday. Baron Davis scored 16 points and hit a clinching three-pointer with 9.9 seconds left, playing just his fifth game since being acquired from the Clippers last month. Davis has missed time due to the death of his grandmother plus is dealing with a sore knee. “It’s always nice when you have a guy that is a closer,” coach Byron Scott said about Davis, who has averaged 14.6 points with the Cavaliers. “It’s great when you have a guy with that type of ability and confidence.” The Cavs are going nowhere these days but are least playing with some ‘heart.’ Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 2-5 SU on the road since the break and could be without Johnson in this one. The Hinrich for Bibby trade has not improved the team one iota, Johnson's having his worst season as a Hawk plus last year’s sixth-man of the year Crawford, has seen his average dip almost four points (from 18.0 to 14.3 while shooting less than 42 percent from the floor, including just under 34% on threes). I want NO part of laying points on the road with Atlanta, even in Cleveland.

BIG AL

San Antonio @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis -2

The Spurs lead over the Bulls and Lakers for the league's best record has shrunk to four and five games respectively. And, by the time Tim Duncan returns in a couple weeks, San Antonio may be looking up at both Chicago and Los Angeles in the standings. After Friday's horrific loss at the Rose Garden, where the Spurs were outscored 8-0 in the final 1:12, they look to bounce back in Memphis tonight. Unfortunately for San Antone, they don't match up well with the Grizzlies, who have Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol inside. With Duncan sidelined, the Spurs will be left to use rookie Tiago Splitter and undersized center DeJuan Blair. Needless to say, it could get very ugly this evening. San Antone does have All-Star talent on the perimeter with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, but Memphis' Tony Allen does a great job on defense, and the Spurs' pick-and-roll game definitely takes a huge hit without Duncan available. Memphis already handed the Spurs one of their worst losses of the season with a 16-point win at Memphis and I look for a similar outcome this evening. Take the Grizzlies.

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -4½

Portland is 42-30 straight up this year. The Trailblazers are 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 games following an ATS loss. The Blazers are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games as road underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Portland is 1-11 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games. Oklahoma City is 47-24 straight up this year. The Thunder is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. The Thunder is 4-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Thunder are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 games as favorites.

Ray Monohan

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Kansas
Play: Virginia Commonwealth +11½

The upstart No.11 seed VCU Rams will try and keep their improbable run in this year’s NCAA Men’s Tournament alive with a win over the No.1 seed Kansas Jayhawks in the Southwest Region final. VCU remains the lone double-digit seed left in this year’s NCAA Tournament after a thrilling 72-71 OT win over No.10 seed Florida State as a 4½-point underdog in Friday night’s Sweet 16 matchup. This was by far the Rams toughest test in their four tournament games that included a 94-76 romp over No.3 seed Purdue as a 9½-point underdog. Kansas remains the lone No.1 seed in the tournament after a thorough 77-57 thrashing of No.12 seed Richmond as a 10-point favorite this past Friday night as well. It was the Jayhawks third straight double-digit victory in which they scored over 70 points while holding their opponents to under 60. The Jayhawks should advance to the Final Four with a straight-up win, but it will not be nearly as easy as the first three games as the scrappy Rams keep this one interesting until the final buzzer. Trends I like for this one include, Rams are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Red Dog Sports

Tyler Zeller -4.5 points/rebounds over Josh Harrellson

Zeller has played well putting up 39 points and rebounds in his last game and has 28 and 41 in his other two NCAA games. Zeller totaled 38 when these two played back in December.

Josh Harrellson has played well and only put up 4 points and 7 rebounds vs. UNC earlier but has played well with 27 pts/rbs vs. Ohio State. Zeller is the key focus for Zeller being the only upperclassman starting for UNC.

I would guess that Zeller ends with 31 and Josh with 21. Take Zeller -4.5 on Sunday.

EZWINNERS

Golden State Warriors -10.5

Although they took the Clippers to double overtime before losing on Wednesday, the Wizards have been outscored by 21 points per game during the first three games of a five game road trip and they are an NBA worst 1-34 on the road this season. Golden State plays their best basketball at home and they are coming off of a 138-100 blowout win against Toronto on Friday night thanks to a season best 61.4% shooting. Golden State is 14-4 against the spread in their last eighteen games against a team with a winning percentage of 40% or less. I look for a blowout, lay the points.

Michael Alexander

Sacramento Kings vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -9

SACRAMENTO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders this season

PHILADELPHIA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season

PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season

Tom Stryker

Houston @ Miami
PICK: Miami -8.5

Off back-to-back straight up losses at home to San Antonio and Phoenix, Houston has bounced back nicely by winning five straight over the likes of Phoenix, Charlotte, Boston, Utah and Golden State. Rest assured, the Rockets mini streak will come to a quick end tonight.

With a 20-10 SU and 17-11-1 ATS record, Miami has certainly played well in the last 30 meetings between these two teams. Both are fighting for playoff positioning so that edge doesn't favor the Heat or the Rockets. Miami is chasing Boston and Chicago for one of the top two spots in the East while Houston has its eye on Memphis and the eighth spot in the West.

What does matter is Houston's mark against Class A opponents provided the Rockets check in on a roll. According to my NBA database, Houston is a dismal 64-95 ATS coming off a SU and ATS win provided it's matched up against a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .670 or better. If the Rockets are running against an opponent that enjoyed the comforts of home last, this team trend slips to a woeful 36-57 ATS!

Offensively, Wade, James and Bosh are starting to find their groove. In six of their last seven, the Heat has popped for 100 points or more and averaged 104.7 points per game over those seven battles. Four days of rest and too much home cooking will trouble the Rockets here. Take Miami.

Jack Jones

Houston Rockets +8.5

The Houston Rockets have been coming on strong over the last month. They are showing excellent value tonight against the Miami Heat, a team that is constantly overvalued at home. Houston is 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Rockets have reeled off five straight victories entering tonight's contest with the Heat. Houston also comes into this game on 3 days' rest, so they will be the fresher team.

The Heat are just 14-22 ATS in all home games this season. Houston has posted a very profitable 21-14 ATS mark away from home this year. The Rockets are 8-1 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Houston is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Rockets Sunday.