Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies -2
The Spurs have lost 2 in a row since Tim Duncan went down with an injury, and they will have an extremely difficult time ending the skid in Memphis Sunday. This game means a lot more to Memphis, which is trying to hold off Houston for the last playoff spot in the West. Plus, the Grizzlies have been taking care of business all season at home where they are 25-10. One of those wins was a 109-93 victory over the Spurs earlier this month. Memphis has been up to the challenge at home against the league's elite. In fact, it is 9-1 ATS in home games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Grizz are defeating these foes by an average of 3.1 ppg. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Take Memphis.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kentucky –1½ over North Carolina Pinnacle
There's no doubt that North Carolina poses a challenge for Kentucky -- just as Kentucky poses a challenge for North Carolina but what we really have here is an undervalued Wildcat team against an overvalued Tar Heels. How do we figure? Well, Kentucky is one of the top 10 teams in team defense and specifically in effective FG percentage allowed and you saw that against Ohio State. The Wildcats should have been a 2-seed and that the committee ignored their run in the SEC tournament while UNC should have been a 3- or 4-seed, and that the committee ignored them losing in their conference tourney. North Carolina has a trait that is consistent in a lot of losing teams: The Tar Heels struggle to shoot the ball, ranking 166th in effective field goal percentage, which is similar to points per shot. UK has some older guys who will crash the boards and play good interior defense to help stabilize the freshmen. And while freshmen usually turn the ball over and shoot poor free throws, that is not the case this year. The Wildcats are ninth in fewest turnovers per possession and they shoot free throws well, too. They don't have that exploitable weakness, while UNC does because of its shooting. The Wildcats tournament résumé is also much stronger after they beat two really tough teams in WVU and OSU while the Tar Heels beat two very flawed teams in Washington and Marquette. The Tar Heels run ends here. Play: Kentucky –1½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Kansas –11½ over VCU
There comes a time when the Cinderella story must come to an end and truth be told, this is a horrible matchup for the Rams. Kansas is one of the best rebounding teams and shoots the highest percentage of any team in the nation. The Jayhawks guards won’t struggle like the Seminoles against VCU pressure. The Rams rank 213th in offensive rebounding percentage and 318th out of 345 in defensive rebounding percentage. Kansas won't miss often, but when they do it will be easy for the Morris twins to clean up. KU will light up the Rams on the glass and they should light them up offensively too. Shaka Smart has become the hot name in coaching with VCU's success. A proponent of fast-paced, free-wheeling offense and pressure defense, he has given his players freedom and pushed the right buttons during the Rams' tournament run. However, that style seldom works over a prolonged period of time. The Jayhawks will be prepped well for this game and won’t take the Rams lightly. The Jayhawks are far superior in every category including depth. The Jayhawks' reserves outscored the University of Richmond's subs 31-8 on Friday night and there is just no way this 12-6 CAA team can match up against this true powerhouse. Did you know that these Rams played Richmond in December and lost by 12? –just sayin. The Rams might lose by 30 here. Play: Kansas –11½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +280 over PITTSBURGH
With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the line-up this line would be warranted but without those two and with the Pens coming off three consecutive wins over Detroit, Philly and New Jersey, this is truly a vulnerable spot for them. The Pens have not only won three in a row but all three wins came via the shootout and it’s also worth noting that they have the Flyers on deck on Tuesday. So, in terms of a situational play, the Panthers offer up all kinds of value here because the Pens could certainly take this day off. Pittsburgh is nowhere near being in panic mode. They’re a lock to make the playoffs and they proved to themselves and to every team they’ve played that they can win without its two stars. Against the Panthers they don’t have to prove a thing and that, too, makes them vulnerable. In this league any team can beat any team of the situation is right and this situation couldn’t be better for an energetic and determined Panther club. Florida is only seven games under .500 on the year which means they’ve beaten a lot of good teams already and at this price under these conditions, they’re certainly worth a shot. Play: Florida +280 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +117 over PHILADELPHIA
Both teams played yesterday with the Bruins losing to the Rangers (1-0) and the Flyers winning on Long Island 4-1. Once again the Flyers win was a misleading one and the only reason they won is because that stiff Rick DiPietro couldn’t stop anything. He allowed four goals on 22 shots while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 36 of 27 shots. Once again the Flyers were outplayed badly, just as they were in their previous game, a 2-1 OT loss to the Pens. Philadelphia is not sharp at the moment despite what its record suggests. They’re getting outplayed and badly out-chanced every time they take the ice. The Bruins are one of the best road teams in the league. The B’s 10 road losses is the third best mark in the league. It’s also worth mentioning that these two have played three times this season with Boston winning 7-5 and 3-0 and Philly winning the other one in OT. In other words, the Flyers have not beaten the Bruins in regulation in all three games this season and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Play: Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).
JIM FEIST
SAN ANTONIO / MEMPHIS
TAKE: MEMPHIS
We could be looking at a potential first round playoff matchup here on Sunday as the Spurs play the Grizzlies. However, one thing will be different in today's game, the Spurs will once again be without Tim Duncan who will miss the game with an ankle injury. The Spurs have missed the leadership of Duncan as they have lost two straight games. However, San Antonio still holds a comfortable 5-game lead over the Lakers for the best record in the west. Last time the Spurs visited Memphis they were without Tony Parker and lost 109-93. Every game is important to the Grizzlies who need this one much more than the Spurs. Memphis holds a slim 1 1/2 game lead over Houston for that eighth and final playoff spot. I'm taking Memphis here on Sunday against what should be an offensively challenged Spurs squad.
JR O'Donnell
VA. Commonwealth +11.5
VCU will not be intimidated as the 27-11 VCU Rams get our call +11.5 here as the J O'ster senses something about this ball club. Senior driven.. "SUPER" Smart Strong Guard Play "Joey Rodriguez" & Senior Forward Jamie Skeen + scorer Brad Burgess @ 28 double digit games this season. They are well coached as Coach Smart has this ball club ready to pounce. The #11 seeded Rams play D, shoot the FT well at 71.5%, shoot the 3 ball 36% and for you # crunchers check in @ 8-2 on a neutral site. The Rams will give the Jayhawks all they can handle. The Jayhawks are yes guys the real deal & The Morris Brothers are 2 flat out BEASTS.... The key is to get Marcus Morris in foul trouble. The O'ster has punched in all the #'s and while we called for and got a blow out over last game over the Spiders we will call for a under 10 point ball game here.
OC Dooley
Hawks / Cavaliers OVER 193
One of the keys to this selection surrounds Cleveland finally getting back the services of veteran floor leader Baron Davis on Friday which gives an already injury depleted offensive attack some hope. Ever since coming over from the Clippers in a trade deadline deal, Davis has suited up in a Cavaliers uniform only 5 times his probable playing status this evening speaks volumes. Davis initially missed time (personal) to attend the funeral of a beloved grandmother that essentially raised him. With the mental anguish taking for the moment taking his intensity to play basketball away, Davis missed another 3 games in what was described as back spasm. On Friday Davis did see 24 minutes of action which he dished out 5 assists and from all indications he will be in the STARTING lineup this evening. For those who have a chance to watch this game on satellite keep an eye on J.J. Hickson who is coming off a very large effort (24 points, 15 rebounds) that reminded some Cleveland fans of the almost daily efforts of a traitor named Lebron. Tonight’s total has been kept in relative check in part because the Cavaliers have played below the number in 5 consecutive outings where the average offensive point production (87 ppg) has been weak. In addition Atlanta All-Star Joe Johnson last time on the floor had to exit early with a strained thumb. Last night in a game where the Hawks put 98 points on the scoreboard, another All-Star Al Horford (23 points, 12 rebounds) had a large effort. In the stretch run of the regular season the Atlanta defense has struggled allowing a hefty 104 points per pop in the past 5 games combined. Atlanta is 5-1 OVER the total the past six outings which is in stark contrast to the previous 15 games that saw the Hawks stay below the number 12 different times. Late today marks the 15th game for Cleveland in front of their own HOME fans in the past 20 outings which according to my database research is a rather large development. In the past two years Cleveland is a resounding 14-4 OVER the total when off 3 consecutive games that were played in front of the HOME fans