SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
MIDWEST REGIONAL
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
(6) Tennessee (28-8, 15-16-2 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (27-8, 14-20 ATS)
Tennessee posted its first Sweet 16 victory in school history Friday, upsetting second-seeded Ohio State 76-73 as a 4½-point underdog. Since getting destroyed by Kentucky in the SEC tournament semifinals (74-45 as a 4½-point pup), the Volunteers have gone 3-0 in the Tournament (2-1 ATS). Going back to Feb. 27, Tennessee is on an 8-1 SU run (5-3-1 ATS), and it is 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) in its last 12 contests. However, both defeats were double-digit blowouts.
Michigan State rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit and dumped ninth-seeded Northern Iowa 59-52 as a one-point favorite on Friday. The Spartans won their seventh consecutive Sweet 16 game despite not having team leader and top scorer Kalin Lucas, who suffered a season-ending Achilles’ injury in Michigan State’s one-point buzzer-beating victory over Maryland a week ago. Since experiencing a three-game losing streak in the middle of the Big Ten season, the Spartans have won eight of its last 10, going just 6-4 ATS during this stretch.
While this is Tennessee’s first Elite Eight trip in history, the Spartans were here just a season ago, and they dominated Louisville 64-52 as a 4½-point underdog en route to the national championship game. Going back to 1979, when it won the first of two national championships, Michigan State is 6-1 in the Elite Eight, and it is seeking its eighth Final Four appearance all-time and third since 2005.
Tennessee is now 8-2 at neutral sites this season (5-4-1 ATS), averaging 71 ppg while allowing 63.4 ppg. Michigan State has still only played six neutral-site contests (including the last four in a row), going 4-2 (3-3 ATS) while pouring in 76.8 ppg and surrendering 69.8 ppg.
The Volunteers are in pointspread slumps of 3-7-2 as a Tournament favorite, 1-5-2 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament, 1-4 on Sunday and 1-7 after a spread-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread upticks of 5-0-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 versus the Big Ten and 5-1-1 against winning teams.
Michigan State is on ATS surges of 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-2 as an underdog of less than seven points, 6-2-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 when catching less than seven points in the Big Dance, 6-1 against SEC opponents and 21-8 on Sunday. However, the Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-league contests and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams.
It’s been all “unders” for Tennessee lately, including 33-14-1 overall (22-9-1 last 32), 8-4 in non-league play, 6-2-1 at neutral sites, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 5-1-1 as a chalk at neutral sites, 10-1 on Sunday and 22-10-1 after a SU win. Conversely, the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 5-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a neutral-site underdog, 4-1 as a pup in the Big Dance and 5-2 against the SEC, but the under is 30-11-1 in Michigan State’s last 42 as an underdog (26-9 as a pup of less than seven points).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SOUTH REGIONAL
(at Houston)
(3) Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (32-5, 21-13-2 ATS)
Baylor earned a trip to the regional finals for the first time since 1950 with a thoroughly dominating 72-49 rout of 10th-seeded St. Mary’s on Friday, easily covering as a five-point favorite. The Bears, who are in the Big Dance for just the fourth time ever and first time in 49 years, have won their three tourney games by comfortable margins (9, 8 and 23 points). Baylor is on an 11-2 SU run, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight following a 1-5 ATS downturn.
Duke toyed with its two first-round opponents in Jacksonville, Fla., last weekend – pounding Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal by 29 and 15 points, respectively. However, in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against Purdue, the Blue Devils found themselves in a dogfight until the final 10 minutes of the second half, when they broke free and won going away 70-57 as an 8½-point favorite. Duke has won seven in a row and 15 of its last 17, and of the Devils’ five losses this season, four have come against teams that reached the Tournament (Maryland, Georgetown, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin).
Defense has proven to be the difference for both teams in the Tournament. Baylor has held Sam Houston State, Old Dominion and St. Mary’s to a combined 65-for-175 from the field (37.1 percent), while Duke’s three foes (Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Cal and Purdue) have averaged 51.3 ppg on 36.1 percent shooting (56-for-155).
The last time Baylor won consecutive games in the Big Dance was in 1948, which was also its only Final Four appearance.
Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the first time since 2004 that the Blue Devils have reached the Elite Eight, which was also their most recent Final Four appearance. They’ve won three straight Elite Eight contests (2-1 ATS) dating to 1999.
Baylor is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at neutral venues, winning by an average of 9.7 ppg (73.8-64.1). Duke has won all 10 of its neutral-site contests this season (7-3 ATS), outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg (70.4-55.3).
The Bears sport ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-1 in non-conference action, 20-7 at neutral sites, 10-4 as an underdog, 10-3 as a neutral-site pup, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Duke has cashed in all three Tournament games so far after failing to cover in 10 of 12 prior to this season. The Blue Devils are still just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a Big Dance chalk (1-6 when laying less than seven points), but they’re on positive pointspread stretches 7-3 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 4-1 against the Big 12 and 7-1-1 on Sunday.
Baylor has stayed low in six of eight in non-league play, but otherwise is on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 14-3 after a SU win, 11-2 after a spread-cover (8-1 last nine), 6-0 as an underdog and 4-0 as a pup of less than seven points. Duke carries “under” trends of 5-1-1 overall (4-0 last four), 18-6-1 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 8-3-1 in the Tournament (4-0 last four), 12-4-1 when laying points in the Big Dance, 4-0 on Sunday and 26-12-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Denver (48-25, 31-37-5 ATS) at Orlando (51-22, 39-33-1 ATS)
After snapping their three-game losing skid on Friday, the Nuggets now look to make it two in a row when they visit Amway Arena for a battle with the Magic.
Denver got a buzzer-beating 18-foot jumper from Carmelo Anthony on Friday night to beat the Raptors 97-96 in Toronto, but came up short as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have now failed to cash in seven straight games, including four in a row on the highway. The win was their first since March 18 and first on the road since a 125-108 victory in Memphis on March 13.
The Magic got 24 points and 19 rebounds from Dwight Howard in a 106-97 home win over Minnesota on Friday, but fell short as a 15½-point chalk. Orlando has won eight of nine on its home court (6-3 ATS) and 29 of 36 (20-16 ATS) at the Magic Kingdom this season.
Orlando has dominated the Nuggets in Orlando, going 18-3 SU at Amway Arena since it opened in 1989, however one of the losses was last season when Denver came in and scored an 82-73 victory as a seven-point pup, ending a nine-game road losing skid in this rivalry. Earlier this season, the Nuggets also took a 115-97 home win over the Magic, easily cashing as 5½-point favorites and moving to 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head clashes. The home team is on a 13-3 ATS streak in this rivalry, including Orlando’s 8-1 ATS run at Amway.
Denver is 13-6-3 ATS in its’ last 22 as a road ‘dog and 3-0-2 ATS in its last five Sunday tip-offs, but it is on ATS skids of 4-10-3 after a straight-up win, 0-6 after a non-cover, 0-7 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 on the highway. Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Northwest Division squads, but on ATS streaks of 6-2 on Sunday, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home against teams with losing road records.
The Nuggets are on several “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 19-9 as road pups, 4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 after a non-cover and 36-17 as underdogs. The Magic are also on a plethora of “under” runs, including 34-16-1 overall, 37-17-1 against the Western Conference, 8-1-1 at home, 22-8 on Sunday, 49-19-1 after getting a day off and 23-9-1 as favorites. The “under” has also been a consistent play in this series lately, going 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Portland (44-29, 39-32-2 ATS) at Oklahoma City (44-27, 42-29 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers, who are in the thick of the playoff picture and looking for their third straight win, head to the Ford Center to face the Thunder.
Portland has won seven of its last eight (4-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 112-101 victory in New Orleans, easily getting the cash as a 3½-point favorite. Blazers All-Star Brandon Roy went 12-for-14 shooting and finished with 28 points and LaMarcus Aldridge added 24 as Portland shot 58.6 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Hornets 35-25. Portland is now 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) in its last six roadies.
Oklahoma City comes off its most impressive win of the season, crushing the Lakers 91-75 at home Friday as a one-point underdog. The Thunder led by as many as 30 points before Los Angeles rallied late to make the final respectable. Kevin Durant had 26 points and eight rebounds for Oklahoma City, while point guard Russell Westbrook delivered 23 points and six assists.
These teams have met twice this season with the road team getting the victory each time. Portland came into Oklahoma City on Nov. 1 and took an 83-74 win as a three-point favorite, then the Thunder returned the favor on Feb. 9, winning 89-77 as a 1½-point road chalk. The Blazers have won and cashed in four of the last five meetings and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in those five.
Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against Northwest Division teams, but on ATS runs of 12-4-1 on the road, 38-17 when they have to play the second night of a back-to-back, and 4-1-1 overall. Oklahoma City is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on Sunday, but on positive ATS runs of 14-5 against winning teams, 6-1 against the Western Conference, 11-1 as a favorite of up less than five points and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road marks.
The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in six of eight as an underdog, but they are on “over” streaks of 7-1 on the road, 9-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 14-6 as road ‘dogs and 5-2 on Sunday. The Thunder have topped the total in five of seven as a chalk, 10 of 14 after a day off and five of eight overall, but they are on “under” runs of 13-3-2 against winning teams and 17-8 as a home favorite of five points or less. Finally, in this series, the “under” is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings and 12-3-2 in the last 17 clashes on the Thunder’s home court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Antonio (43-28, 37-33-1 ATS) at Boston (47-25, 30-40-2 ATS)
The Spurs play the first game of a quick, two-day road trip at TD Garden in Boston, battling the suddenly surging Celtics.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last seven contests (4-3 ATS), including getting a big home win on Friday over the Cavs, 102-97 as a one-point ‘dog. The Spurs received a big effort from Manu Ginobili, who had 30 points, six assists and six boards. The victory followed a tough home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, when they were dominated in the second half of a 92-83 setback as two-point favorites.
Boston has won six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), including Friday’s 94-86 home win over the Kings, coming up short as an 11-point chalk. The big three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined for 60 points and 25 rebounds and point guard Rajon Rondo dished out 18 assists. The Celtics have now won five straight at home (4-1 ATS).
In this series, the road team has won six of the last seven (5-2 ATS), but the Celtics have won five of the last six overall and cashed in six of the last seven. Back on Dec. 3, Boston traveled to San Antonio and scored a 90-83 upset as a one-point underdog. In fact, the pup has gotten the cash in seven straight series clashes.
The Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against Atlantic division teams and 0-6 ATS in their last six Sunday games, but they are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 after a day off and 7-3 after a spread-cover. The Celtics have cashed in five of six as a chalk, five of seven overall and four of five after a non-cover, but they are on negative ATS trends of 19-39-1 at home, 6-13-2 after a day off, 8-20 as a home chalk, 5-12-1 against Western Conference teams and 0-4-1 on Sunday.
San Antonio has topped the total in four of six overall and three of four as a pup, but it is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 as a road ‘dog, 10-4 after a spread-cover, 9-4-1 on Sunday and 6-1 against the Atlantic division. Boston has gone above the posted number in seven of eight after a non-cover, but stayed below it in eight of 10 after a straight-up win, four of five against the Southwest Division and nine of 13 against the Western Conference. The “under” is also on a 5-3 run in these head-to-head clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cajun Sports
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons
Selection: Chicago Bulls +2
The Bulls make the trip to the Motor City for a meeting against divisional rival and host the Detroit Pistons. This series has been dominated by the visiting Bulls taking all three meetings this season which makes it six in a row for Chicago over Detroit. Not only have they been tough straight up versus the Pistons but when it comes to covering the spread they have been money in the bank for their backers posting a record of 12-1-1 ATS their last fourteen. Chicago is 19-9 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons while Detroit is only 3-11 ATS versus division foes this season. The Pistons have also struggled in the role of home favorite with a record of 19-35 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons and 28-49 ATS overall in home games during the period of time. Chicago has done a good job defensively against the Pistons holding them to 39 percent shooting and holding Detroit to 86 points per game. Chicago on the other hand has shot better than 50 percent from the field in their three wins over the Pistons this season which makes it even more difficult on the much maligned Detroit defense to come up with any stops. The Bulls are fighting for the final playoff spot against Toronto so we expect them to continue their solid play against a very poor Detroit team that has gone 2-13 their last 15 games overall and dropping all but four of those against the spread. We will back the visitor in this situation as the Bulls grab their seventh straight victory over the Pistons and cash their thirteenth ticket in their last fifteen against this Detroit team.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago Bulls 99 Detroit Pistons 90
Marc Lawrence
Portland at Oklahoma City
Prediction: Portland
The Trailblazers travel to Oklahoma City looking to settle score from an 89-77 home defeat suffered early last month against the Thunder. Good news for Portland considering OKC is off a home underdog win over the Lakers Friday night. That's because the Thunder is 1-13 SU and ATS in games when they own a win percentage of .600 or more after taking on the Lakers, including 10 SU and ATS losses in a row. And speaking of streaks, Portland's 12-point loss to the Thunder snapped a 4-0 SU and ATS series win skein while OKC's win over the Los Angeles snapped a 12 game losing skid to the Lakers. The shoe fits and we're wearing it here today.
Nick Parsons
Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5
Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back for a number of different reasons I expect the Penguins to smoke the Leafs today
No doubt about it, Toronto has been playing much better of late; its won nine of its last twelve. It's coming off a hard fought come from behind 3-2 victory over the Rangers.
Jonas Gustavson has been a major reason for Toronto's turn around, however J. S. Giguere is scheduled in net today.
On the other side of the rink: The Pens stopped a three-game slide yesterday with a dominating 4-1 victory over the Flyers which was the first game of a six-game home stand.
With that victory, Pittsburgh moves into a tie for first in the Atlantic with New Jersey; however the Pens have one fewer victory and are currently in fourth in the Eastern Conference; it goes without saying that every point from here on out down the stretch is crucial for this club.
Captain Sidney Crosby will be looking to break out of a seven-game goal-scoring drought.
Bottom line: Pittsburgh lost to Toronto at home back on the 9th of January, 4-1, so will also be looking to avenge that embarrassing effort.
But, more than anything, Pittsburgh needs wins to end the season. It needs to enter the playoffs on a high if it expects to defend its title.
A dominating performance in front of the home town crowd against a team that played less than 24 hours previous is a good way to start that process; I'll lay the 1 1/2 here for the + $.
Craig Trapp
Tennessee vs. Michigan State
Play: Tennessee -1.5
Who could have imagined that this Volunteer team could make the final four after kicking off Tyler Smith mid season. Bruce Pearl has completely transformed a team that used to just run and gun to a defensive minded hard nosed team. But don't discount this teams talent as Prince, Mays, Hopson and Chism will all be future NBA players. On the other hand we have the Big Ten last team MSU trying to overcome the huge injury of Lucas two games back. Coach Izzo is a mastermind but even he will have issues trying to will a less talented Spartans squad. Difference here is much more talent on TENN and they now play defense. Ask the Buckeyes how good TEN is as they beat another Big Ten team on SUNDAY!
Rob Vinciletti
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -8
The Hawks are 7-3 ats as a home favorite in this range, while the Pacers are 3-11 ats as a road dog in this range. Atlanta has won and covered 3 of the past 4 at home vs Indiana. The Pacers are riding an 8 game ats streak and are coming off a big home dog win on Friday vs Utah. That win sets them up in a negative system here today. What we want to do is play against certain road dogs off a home dog win at +5 or more if they scored 120 or more in the win and their opponent is coming off a road game. This system has cashed 78% long term. Look for the Hawks to get the win and cover here today.
BIG AL
Chicago @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -2
Detroit comes into this Sunday evening game off seven straight losses, but this is a perfect spot to step in and take the home team. Earlier this season, Chicago routed Detroit 120-87, and the Bulls have won the last six meetings overall. But Detroit has been installed as a 2-point home favorite here, and that number is key, as we note that, since 1990, NBA home favorites of -2 or more points, are a solid 31-10 ATS if they're playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and are off a SU/ATS loss, while their opponent is off a SU/ATS win. With Chicago in off a blowout win over New Jersey last night, and Detroit off (coincidentally) to a loss to that same New Jersey team on Friday, we'll play on Detroit here as the small home favorite.
EZWINNERS
Boston Celtics -3.5
The Celtics have been playing very well and have won six out of their last seven games. The spurs are coming off of a big home win against Cleveland, but they have not had much success recently against the Celtics. Boston has won five out of their last six games against the Spurs and this time San Antonio is without their starting point guard Tony Parker. George Hill has filled in nicely at the points for San Antonio, but the Celtics will have a big advantage with Rajon Rondo running the show for Boston against San Antonio's second year player. San Antonio is only 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning home record. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Denver is led in scoring by Carmelo Anthony and his 28.9 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 19.8 points a game. Shooting guard J.R. Smith scores 15.3 points agame. Center Nene Hilario scores 13.9 points and 7.8 rebounds a game. Denver is 0-7 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games when playing with no rest. Orlando is led in scoring by Center Dwight Howard and his 18.6 points and 13.4 rebounds a game. Guard Vince Carter scores 16.8 points a game. Forward Rayshard Lewis scores 14.4 points a game. Point guard Jameer Nelson scores 12.2 points a game. The Magic score 101.9 points a game and they allow 94.9 points a game. Orlando is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites and they are 8-1 ATS their last 9 home games with the Nuggets. PLAY ON ORLANDO -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Baylor at Duke
Not sure if the right team is favored here. Many are just learning about the Bears right now, but those previously in the know have taken advantage the last two rounds with short numbers. Now Baylor is the underdog and we'll take them knowing they are 8-2 ATS in non-conference action this season + 9-1 ATS if they were favored in each of their two previous games.
Play on: Baylor
John Ryan
Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Sacramento Kings +13.5
3* graded play on the Kings as they take on Cleveland set to start at 3:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Kings will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 47-18 ATS for 72% winners. Play on dogs of 10 or more points after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games facing an opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. Here is a 2nd system that has gone an amazing 32-8 ATS for 80% winners. Play on dogs of 10 or more points after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games facing an opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. Kings are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points this season. Take the Kings.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets +5.5
Because the Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in 7 straight games, odds makers have been forced to inflate this line. I'll gladly take the points as Denver is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. After getting a much needed much-needed monkey off their back with a win over Toronto, look for the Nuggets to show up and take the Magic down to the wire today. Take the points.
JIM FEIST
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS / OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
TAKE: PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
The Portland Trailblazers holding onto that last spot in the west for the playoffs. It appears that the Blazers shouldn't have any problems though, as Memphis is five games back. Still Portland can improve its lot in the postseason and not have to face the Lakers or even Dallas. Four and half games separate the Blazers from 2nd place Denver. So there are lots of scenarios for the Blazers that don't end with the Lakers in the first round. And, Oklahoma City is one of those teams in front of Portland. Right now OKC sits in 6th place, just three games back of 2nd place Denver and just 1 1/2 games ahead of last place Denver. That means all these games are still important to the western teams. The teams split the two games this year with each winning and covering on their opponents home court. NBA teams all react differently to playing back to back games. Some teams have thin benches and tire easily in the second game. That is not the problem here with Portland. The Blazers should feel no effect of their game on Saturday at New Orleans. In fact, the last Blazers have covered the second game of a back to back spot in each of their last 7 tries. Good defense, strong bench, that goes a long way to keeping a team strong in this situation. Both teams can use this game, but we'll take the Blazers who have already shown they can win at the Ford Center. Take Portland plus the points here on Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baylor +5 over Duke
There is no denying the fact that the Dukies road to the Elite Eight has been by far the easiest of any team. They have really not been tested at all and have been a significant favorite in all three of its games thus far. Not only have they won as a 24-point, 6½-point and 8½-point favorite over Arkansas Pine Bluff, California and Purdue but they also covered in all three games. Blue Devil backers are enjoying this event for sure and there are plenty of them. Well, those three wins and three covers has created a false sense of security and if the Dukies are going to get exposed it’s very likely to happen here. Despite winning, Duke has shown a lot of flaws, especially on the offensive, where they went eight minutes without scoring a bucket against a suspect Purdue defense in the last round. Yeah, they won by 13 but it was close for a long time when in fact the Blue Devils should have put away the Boilermakers early. If you go back to the last two games the Blue Devils played before this event, you’ll see that they barely squeaked by Georgia Tech (65-61) and Miami (77-74). Furthermore, when you wager on the top seeded Blue Devils, perhaps the most renowned program in the country, you’re going to pay a premium to do so and against this foe that’s a mistake. Baylor is that good. The Bears have a zone defense that held sharp-shooting Saint Mary's to 35% shooting and only 6 of 22 on 3-pointers. With a 7-footer and a pair of 6-10 players to crowd the middle, the Bears provide a drastically different look than Purdue's man-to-man defense. The Bears have won eight of its past nine games with only loss over that span coming against K-State. They have a suffocating defense and a very proficient offense. The Bears chances of winning are as good as the Blue Devils chances but the kicker is we’re taking back five significant points and even if they lose one has to figure it to be by the slimmest of margins. Play: Baylor +5 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Sac Lawson
Michigan St. +2 vs Tennessee
I love Michigan State's rebounding edge this afternoon, and I love their coach Tom Izzo. This is a team that can defend anybody, and with a Tennessee team that has struggled to hit outside jumpers, they'll have to depend on getting in the lane against the Spartans, and that's simply something that is not easy to do against Tom Izzo coached teams. You've got to make your three pointers to beat MSU, and Tenn does not have one guy on their team that can consistently shoot the three.
I think MSU is getting absolutely shafted by oddsmakers and the public alike. Nobody will give this team respect being without their starting guard. Fact is, they are still a very good team, playing for a coach that has been here before. Tennessee is a bit wild with the basketball, and wild with their emotions at times... I'd much prefer to back a level-headed team that is going to crash the offensive glass, and play some very stout defense.
Michigan St. / Tennessee Under 137
I would play this down to 135, but if anything it's going up. I talked about this on the podcast yesterday with the CBB guys. This game is all about defense for both teams. Michigan St. has definitely taken on a defensive approach lately with Lucas being out. They know their floor general isn't out there, and expect that to hinder their offense, so they're combating any negative influence offensively by simply upping the intensity on defense.
Tennessee, surprisingly has done the same thing.. This is a Vols club that really doesn't have any pure shooters. If they can get to the lane and score quickly they will, but the fact that they lack consistent scoring has led them to play much slower in the tournament then normal. They're a team that knows they have to play perfect defense to keep winning, and they know that they've been a bit too turnover prone in the situations where the tempo has sped up.
Both these teams HAVE to play defense to win. This game is not about who scores the most, it's about who gets the most stops, who gets the most rebounds. It'll be a scrappy, hard-fought game. And in my mind that leads to an UNDER.