DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Boston
The Celtics look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3 1/2)
Game 701-702: Sacramento at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 111.559; Cleveland 128.287
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 16 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 197
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-13); Over
Game 703-704: Memphis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 116.202; Milwaukee 121.036
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 197
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Indiana at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.572; Atlanta 126.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8); Over
Game 707-708: Toronto at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.585; Miami 116.381
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.297; Detroit 114.585
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Over
Game 711-712: Denver at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.007; Orlando 128.132
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 5; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 5 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+5 1/2); Over
Game 713-714: Portland at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.179; Oklahoma City 125.666
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4 1/2); Under
Game 715-716: Phoenix at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.316; Minnesota 114.352
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8; 230
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 227 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over
Game 717-718: San Antonio at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.999; Boston 125.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3 1/2); Over
Game 719-720: Golden State at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 111.975; LA Clippers 114.277
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2 1/2; 235
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 230
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5); Over
NCAAB
Tennessee vs. Michigan State
The Volunteers look to build on their 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 non-conference games. Tennessee is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Volunteers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-1 1/2)
Game 721-722: Tennessee vs. Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 73.262; Michigan State 70.708
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-1 1/2)
Game 723-724: Baylor vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 74.531; Duke 77.538
Dunkel Line: Duke by 3
Vegas Line: Duke by 5
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+5)
NHL
Edmonton at St. Louis
The Oilers look to build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 meetings in St. Louis. Edmonton is the pick (+195) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+195)
Game 1-2: Calgary at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.686; Washington 11.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-260); 6
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+220); Over
Game 3-4: Toronto at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.431; Pittsburgh 12.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-220); Over
Game 5-6: Edmonton at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.000; St. Louis 10.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-225); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+195); Under
Game 7-8: Columbus at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.354; Chicago 11.104
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+250); Under
Game 9-10: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.136; Philadelphia 10.617
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 11-12: Colorado at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.875; San Jose 11.577
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets +5.5
The Nuggets have been struggling, but Friday's win over Toronto gives them the much-needed boost of confidence and momentum to hang with the Magic today. The Nuggets are a team that usually shows up against top notch competition. In fact, Denver is 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%), in the 2nd half of the season, over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 105.9 to 101.1. Normally, we just don't see the Nuggets catching this many points, but we are getting additional value with them today because they have dropped 7 in a row ATS. That's fine by me as Denver is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning these games by an average score of 104.7 to 101.2. Take the points.
Matt Fargo
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -8
Atlanta is coming off a loss at Philadelphia on Friday and this is a good spot for a bounce back. The Hawks have dropped back-to-back games only four times in 2010 and the last three instances were when both games were on the road. The fourth time, which was right at the start of January, came when the second game was on the road. Now playing at home once again, Atlanta will be ready. The Hawks are pretty much locked into the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference as they trail Orlando by 4.5 games in the Southeast Division but with the mathematical possibility still alive, the Hawks are far from giving in. With the next two games coming up against the Lakers and Cavaliers, this is a game Atlanta knows it needs to win and the extra focus will be in place based on the recent run that Indiana has enjoyed. The Pacers have won a season-tying high five straight games but four of those games were at home and the one road win over this stretch was at Detroit. The Pacers are 8-30 on the road this season and of those eight wins, none have been against teams that are going to the playoffs as the best win came at Houston. The other seven wins were Detroit (twice), New Jersey (twice), Philadelphia, Washington and New York. That is not exactly a quality résumé. Prior to that victory over the Pistons, Indiana had dropped nine straight road games and as a single-digit road underdog, it is 17-27-1 ATS on the year. Atlanta easily won the first two meetings this season and not much has changed to see it from continuing. The Pacers defense has shown some huge improvements but that actually puts the Hawks into a very solid situation. Play against road underdogs in the second half of the season that are allowing opponents to shoot between 43.5 and 45.5 percent going up against a team allowing opponents to shoot between 45.5 and 47.5 percent and where the underdog has allowed opponents to shoot less than 42 percent in five straight games. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 14-5 ATS this season when the total set is between 200 and 209.5 while Indiana is just 3-11 ATS as road underdog between 6.5 and 9 points. 3* Atlanta Hawks
Hollywood Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
San Antonio (43-28) made a statement against the Cleveland on Friday by proving they can defeat elite teams in the league even without Tony Parker as they defeated the Cavs by a 102-97 score. But now the Spurs must travel on the road to Boston -- and they are just 17-17 away from home. Boston (47-25) have won six of their last seven games (covering five of these games) after defeating Sacramento, 94-86, as an 11-point favorite. The Celtics are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a point-spread loss. Boston has been tough at home with their 23-12 record. And the Spurs have failed to cover thirteen of their last twenty road games against teams with a home record above 60%. The Celtics have covered their last four games as a favorite of under five points. Expect a letdown from the Spurs in Boston tonight. Lay the points with the Celtics.
BEN BURNS
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks -220
The Sharks were part of yesterday's 4-0 premium play sweep. While they're a little higher-priced this evening, for those who don't mind playing a larger favorite, I feel that they're likely to build on that win with another victory.
Like the Sharks, the Avalanche played last night. However, while the Sharks were taking care of business with a 4-2 victory, the Avs were busy getting thumped by a score of 6-2, at Phoenix.
The fact that both teams played yesterday, is significant. The Sharks are a highly profitable 30-14 (+14.8) the last 44 times that they played the second of back to back games. During the same stretch, the Avs have gone just 12-21 (-8) when playing the second of back to back games.
The Sharks are 3-0 the last three times that they hosted the Avs, winning those games by a combined score of 7-2. When considering that they were laying -330 and -400 for two of those games, tonight's price begins to seem a lot more reasonable. Looking back further and we find them at 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in this series and 9-3 the last 12. Consider laying the wood.
LARRY NESS
Chicago @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -2
Chicago bounced back from an embarrassing 103-74 loss at home to the Heat on Thursday by routing the Nets 106-83 last night at the United Center. The win moved the Bulls within 1 1/2 games of Toronto for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. The Bulls have won three of four since ending a 10-game losing streak and Sunday visit Detroit to face a Pistons team which they've beaten six straight times plus gone 12-1-1 against ATS in the last 14 meetings. Can you say OVERCONFIDENCE? John Kuester's team is 2-13 SU (4-11 ATS) since late February but I'm giving them a good chance here. Stuckey (16.9-4.1-4.9) has returned to the lineup and averaged 13.8 PPG the last four games coming off the bench. Kuester has said he'll continue to start Bynum (9.9-4.6 APG) with Hamilton (17.8-4.4 APG) in the backcourt, meaning the Pistons now have both Stuckey and Gordon (13.3) coming off the bench on the perimeter plus Villanueva (12.0-4.8) coming off the bench up front. Deng (18.0-7.3) remains out for Chicago, leaving only Rose (20.2-3.7-5.8) and Noah (10.4-10.9) as impact players. The Bulls ended a six-game road losing streak in their last road game (won at Philly on 3/20) and while the Pistons have not shown much of anything since the break, I'm not about to play the Bulls in a spot in which they need to win SU on the road to cover. Every dog has his day and Sunday it's the Pistons who do the 'barking.'
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on OKC Thunder -4
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 57-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. The favorite is winning in this situation by an average of 9.7 points. It's extremely difficult to win on the road in consecutive games, especially against a rested team drawing a lot of confidence from a decisive win over the best team in the conference. We'll lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO –5½ over Denver
Playing East vs West and laying points is usually not a good idea but you can confidently make an exception here. The Nuggets are not playing well and they’re also coming off a rather celebratory win in Toronto. Melo hit a true buzzer-beater with no time on the clock to rip the hearts out of the Raps. It was the Nuggets first win in four games after losing to Milwaukee, New York and getting crushed by the Celtics. So, while everybody has been ripping apart the Raps, the Nuggets pulled a rabbit out of their hats to win by a single point. While every team has been scoring at will against the Raps, the Nuggets hung a 97 on them, barely. These Nuggets without K-Mart have looked not only average but lackluster as well. Now they’ll head to Orlando, not having beaten a quality team for three weeks, to play its fourth straight on the road. The Magic owns a 29-7 home record and over the years they’ve dominated the Nuggets in Orlando. Also, the Nuggets destroyed the Magic in Denver by 18 back in early January and there’s no way the Magic have forgotten about it. Orlando is loaded with three-point shooters and a great defense and with the way Denver is playing and with its lack of depth off the bench, they could be in for a very long afternoon. Play: Orlando –5½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.10 over DETROIT
The Pistons are favored here because the Bulls will play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after crushing the Nets last night. The good news is they had a 16-point lead at the half and a 26-point lead after three and thus, they were able to rest some people. The Bulls are also aware that they’re 1½ games back of the Raps for the eighth and final playoff spot and the Raps are in Miami today. In other words, this very winnable game is crucial and a loss to the unmotivated Pistons would be devastating. Detroit was a 2-point dog in New Jersey on Friday and lost. It’s humiliating to not only be a pooch to that team but losing as a dog is even more humiliating and it really gives us a sense of the Pistons current state of mind. These two have met three times this season with the Bulls winning each time and the margin of victory went from 7 to 11 to 33. For the Pistons each loss was worse than the last and aside from being the inferior team they’re at a big psychological disadvantage as well. The Pistons have dropped seven in a row and that includes a 15-point loss at home to Indiana, a 25-point loss at Cleveland, a 26-point loss at Boston and the aforementioned eight-point loss in New Jersey. The Pistons have tossed in the proverbial towel and as a result, this one should be no different than its last seven. Play: Chicago +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Tony George
OKL / POR Over 191.5
Like the OVER in this game tonight. Portland off a 112 point performance in a big win at the Hornets last night, but they will be tired and lazy on defense tonight and we all know OK City can score, they are well rested and have youth and depth. They also are off a confidence winning blowout of the Lakers on Friday. I have a power rating of 198 in this game, that is a 6 point overlay. I also like trends to reverse and 9 out of the last 10 have went under in this series and like OK Citys offense to have 100+ in this game and Portlands offense also clicking. Looking for a shootout here tonight.
Jimmy Moore
Portland @ Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City -4.5
The Thunder are having a great season and this is a good spot for them catching the Blazers on the second night of a back to back and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They are a very strong 24-14 ATS against winning teams and the Blazers are only 3-4 ATS as a dog of 4 to 6 points.
Michael Alexander
Tennessee vs. Michigan State
Play: Under 135.5
Using the relentless defense Tennessee head coach Pearl has turned the Volunteers into one of the Southeastern Conference's top teams. Tennessee's 28 victories are the second-most in school history.
Tom Izzo took over as Michigan State's coach in 1995. Three seasons later. Like Tennessee the Spartans play defense, defense and more defense. That defesive style of the Spartans isn't exactly pretty but come this time of the year that hard-nosed defense has them advance each year.
Supporting Trends:TENNESSEE is 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers since 1997.
Every shot will be contested with both teams playing tough defense. Take the under in this one.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors +6.5
Toronto has had Miami's number. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with Miami, and they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Heat overall. Miami is going to get torched inside tonight by Chris Bosh, who will put this team on his shoulders. Toronto's game plan tonight is to get Bosh the ball on almost every trip down the floor to take advantage of the injury to Jermaine O'Neal, who is doubtful to play tonight for the Heat due to a knee injury.
This play also falls under a system that is 112-66 (63%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. Miami is a tired team right now, and this will be their third game in four days. The Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 Sunday games. Take the Raptors.
Info Plays
3* on Golden State Warriors +6
Reasons why the Warriors cover
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This is a 47-14 ATS System hitting 77% over the last 5 seasons. When a team trailed at halftime by 20 or more points in their last game, this system improves to 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 5 years. The Warriors are in a great spot here against a Clippers team that is 2-10 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overal. Golden State is also 7-2 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Clippers. Bet the Warriors on the road.
Nelly
Indiana + over Atlanta
The Pacers are quietly putting together a great month of March, now riding five straight wins and covers in eleven of the last twelve games. Only one of those wins came on the road but the Pacers have mainly had to play playoff teams in the last month of road contests. Indiana has defeated a few quality teams in the recent run of success including wins over Utah, Oklahoma City, and Charlotte and this could be another good opportunity against Atlanta. In recent difficult road games, the Pacers lost by just five at Cleveland, by just four at Milwaukee, by just eight at Phoenix, and by just eight at Denver. Atlanta has locked up a playoff spot but the last two weeks of games have featured some marginal efforts. The Hawks have won narrowly in the last three home games, beating Orlando by just two, and needing overtime to get by San Antonio and Charlotte. The Hawks have also lost each of the last three road games so this is a team that is not playing at its highest level. Indiana has been the far superior defensive team in recent games despite an apparent advantage for the Hawks based on season statistics. The Pacers are allowing just 94 points per game in the last five contests compared to 99 points allowed by the Hawks in that span. The Pacers have been scoring at a very high rate, averaging nearly 110 points per game and delivering very solid shooting numbers. While the playoffs are not in the picture for the Pacers this is a team that is playing at a playoff level late in the season as this team is finally healthy enough to compete with the top teams and Danny Granger is putting himself on the superstar mantle. Atlanta has had to alternate home and road games in the last week making this a tougher travel spot than it appears and the Pacers should be well rested for this match-up following back-to-back home games. Indiana has been a very strong ATS performer with one day of rest between games and the Pacers should be in position to keep the run of strong play going with another upset.
Dan Bebe
MIN / PHO Under 225
Again, with 3 plays coming out today, we need to be brief in our analysis, but this is a play based largely on a fishy line, strong line movement in our favor, and the fact that Minnesota is largely scuffling offensively.
Quickly, Minnesota has been averaging point totals in the high 90's over the last couple weeks, and really, the only strong offensive game they had came because of 24 minutes of garbage time against these Phoenix Suns. There was no slowing of the game late, as both teams had emptied the bench, and both teams were just trying to get to that magical 100 FG attempt number.
Even if the first half is high scoring in this one, I expect Minnesota to be a little more competitive, and I expect the pace to slow markedly as the game wears on. That last meeting was just insane, with Phoenix scoring 152 points, and making everything on the right side of half-court. Phoenix might have another good offensive game, but not 152.
As far as the line and movement are concerned, this line opened at 227, just 1 point higher than the last game! You would think that a recent meeting between two teams that goes over the posted total by 40 points would cause a line adjustment of more than 1 point. This was not so, as books knew that the previous meeting was a statistical aberration that is merely creating more value on the under for this one.
And finally, the line slowly climbed about 1 full point to 228 early this morning before crashing through the floor and dropping 3 points in about 20 minutes. That is extremely powerful line movement in our favor. Again, it's NEVER a good idea to make a play based solely off line movement, but when you get a 3-point dip AFTER a slow steady climb, and that strong line move is in the direction that your handicapping took you to begin with, that's a good sign.
We liked the Under for a handful of reasons, and the line and movement support our analysis. Expect Phoenix and Minnesota to find their way to a much more reasonable game, with the winner scoring just over 110, and the loser falling between 100 and 110 points, for a total in the high two-teens.
LAC / GSW Over 228
This number might look unreachable, especially with the Warriors on the second half of a back-to-back and Monta Ellis out, but this game has all the makings of streetball.
The Clippers are done with the season, and this is the perfect time for the guys to just run up and down the court and have some fun. There's really zero reason for either team to give a flying hoot about defense, since neither has anything to play for. And we know the Warriors want to run, so they're not the question mark, here. The Warriors are also coming off an ugly, ugly shooting night against Dallas, so we can expect them to bounce back by hitting some jumpers tonight in LA.
Staples Center is a notoriously friendly rim, and most visiting teams would say they don't mind shooting in Los Angeles, so I think it's fair to say the Warriors are going to hit 115 points, maybe 120. As noted, the question mark is the Clippers.
I happen to think because of the complete lack of motivation, we're going to see a ton of Baron Davis and Eric Gordon firing up threes, and I have a feeling Rasual Butler gets into the act with 4 or 5 threes of his own.
This is one of those games where folks might want to bring an umbrella.
And even better, for our cause, the Clippers have Chris Kaman, who can clean the glass and get some easy buckets inside, as well.
Drew Gooden we know loves playing against the Warriors, as he had an enormous game against Golden State while still with the Mavericks, and really, when you look at the Clippers, they have a great roster to play at a quicker tempo. They just don't have any coaching, and you know they want to keep trying to play defense during the regular season so they have a better shot of competing with better teams.
Not today, ladies and gents. The Clippers are going to get caught up in a rag-tag game with the Warriors, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a 3-4 minute stretch feature near 30 points at some point in this one. Stephen Curry and Baron Davis going back and forth with fancy passes, sweet moves and wide open layups.
On top of everything else, this line dropped 3 points when Monta Ellis was listed as out with flu-like symptoms, then another half point when the public hammered the under. After a brief respite, the line rocketed back up to 228, where it sits right now. So, again, we're getting a nice deal on this game, and we're getting solid line movement, as well, that supports our play.
Take the Over and watch the points roll in! Play this one for just slightly less than the other plays today, as it's obviously a little more volatile!