Chuck O'Brien
Denver at ORLANDO (-5')
Take the Magic minus the points against Denver in NBA action Sunday.
Clearly, the Nuggets miss the steady guidance of coach George Karl, who is out indefinitely as he goes through cancer treatment. Denver has dropped three of its last four games, and if not for a buzzer-beating shot by Carmelo Anthony on Friday, the Nuggets would be entering this one on its first four-game losing streak of the season.
Where Karl is really missed most, apparently, is at the offensive end, as the high-scoring Nuggets are in a major shooting slump. They’ve been held under 100 points in five of their last six games, averaging 97.8 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting. That’s scary stuff since Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and has held 11 of its last 12 opponents to 97 points or less (the only exception came in an overtime game vs. Miami, and even then the Heat managed just 102 points). Over this 12-game stretch, opponents are scoring just 91 ppg versus the Magic.
Also, history isn’t on Denver’s side in this game at all. Since the Magic franchise was formed in 1989, the Nuggets are 3-18 when playing in Orlando. They’ve also failed to cover in eight of their last nine in central Florida (and the home team has cashed in 13 of the last 16 in this rivalry).
The Magic come into this one having won 16 of their last 19 at home, and only two of those 16 home wins (vs. the Lakers and Celtics) were by fewer than six points. And despite Friday’s last-second win at Toronto, Denver is still a sub-.500 team on the road this year (18-19 SU, 14-19-4 ATS).
4♦ ORLANDO
Chris Jordan
Phoenix (-9) at MINNESOTA
Taking the road chalk in this one, as the Suns are red-hot during the final stretch of the campaign and should have no trouble blistering the lowly Timberwolves.
Phoenix, the NBA's highest-scoring team, has won six straight and 20 of 25 to strengthen its position in the Western Conference. And let's not forget this is the same matchup in which the Suns scored 152 points in a 38-point rout less than two weeks ago.
Sporting the longest active win streak, the Suns are averaging 123.3 points during their run, and take on a team that has struggled defensively and allowed more points per game than every other team besides Golden State.
Phoenix will be gearing up to continue this run, as its next four opponents have combined for 44 losses in 52 games in March. Minnesota has won once in its last 22 games and is now mired in its second 15-game skid of the season, during which opponents are averaging 112.7 points and shooting 48.8 percent.
Lay the chalk in this one
2♦ SUNS
Jeff Benton
That’s eight straight free-play winners as Butler (7♦) upset Kansas State in the Elite Eight on Saturday. In addition to nailing my last eight freebies in a row, I’m now on runs of 47-22-2, 37-17-2 and 28-12-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Sunday, I’ll shift to the NBA and take the points with the Bulls against the Pistons. Bottom line here is Detroit has NO business laying points against ANYBODY, and I don’t care if it’s two points or 20 points. For one thing, the Pistons come into this game on an 0-7 SU and ATS losing skid, and over the past month, they’re 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS.
Not one of those 14 losses came against Chicago, but that doesn’t mean Detroit doesn’t know what it’s like to lose to the Bulls. That’s because the Bulls have won the last six meetings in a row, the most recent being a 120-87 annihilation in the Windy City on Jan. 11, which came 10 days after Chicago won by 11 points in Motown. In fact, since 2007-08, the Bulls are on a 10-0-1 ATS in this rivalry, including six straight covers in Motown. Going back further, they’re on a 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
Additionally, Detroit, which suffered an eight-point loss to the lowly Nets on Friday, has failed to cover in seven straight games and is in further pointspread slumps of 16-34-1 overall, 4-11-1 at home, 3-8-1 as a home favorite, 2-8 as a favorite of less than five points and 17-39-1 against Central Division rivals. By comparison, the Bulls – who routed New Jersey at home last night – are on positive ATS runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 as a ‘dog, 14-6 as a road ‘dog and 18-7-1 in the division.
Bottom line: Maybe this is one of those classic NBA trap games, but frankly, I don’t see it. Chicago is the better team and it is a team that’s still fighting, while the Pistons have obviously quit on the season.
5♦ CHICAGO BULLS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is in the NBA on the Portland Trail Blazers. Do I believe the Blazers are better than OKC? No, not really. Do I believe Portland is playing good basketball right now? Absolutely. And am I looking for the Thunder to have a major letdown spot here? Yes I am. How can they not? They just held the Lakers to a season-low in points scored, played one of their best, most complete games all season, and now they're expected to put it all back together again for Portland? Sorry, I don't see it. Not that I don't think they're capable of it, but I just think this is a bad spot for them. Portland is on a roll right now having won eight of their last ten with the only two losses coming at Denver and at Phoenix. They're only 2 games back of the Thunder in the loss column and one game overall... so you can see the significance of this game for both teams. I think Portland might just sneak up and bite the Thunder where it hurts tonight.
3♦ PORTLAND
Brett Atkins
Delivered an NBA winner on Saturday when the Lakers went to Houston and scored the win and the cover. Today I have another freebie for you from the NBA as I go ahead and lay the chalk with the Magic hosting the Nuggets.
Orlando absolutely dominates the Nuggets when they come into Amway Arena. The Magic are a stunning 18-3 against Denver since Amway opened in 1989, and one of those losses came last season in an 82-73 loss.
The Nuggets have been very shaky lately, losing three straight and needing a miracle, 18-foot fadeaway from Carmelo Anthony on Friday night to squeak past the Raptors 97-96, falling short as 5 1/2-point road favorites. They just haven't been clicking offensively lately and now they have to face the beast in the middle that is Dwight Howard for Orlando.
Howard has scored 39 points and pulled down 39 rebounds the last two times Denver has come to Orlando and on Friday he had 24 points and 19 rebounds in a 106-97 win over the Timberwolves.
The Magic are 29-7 at home this season and they will deliver today against the struggling Nuggets. Lay the chalk with the home team!.
3♦ ORLANDO
Jay McNeil
Portland at Oklahoma City
Northwest Division battle tonight, and I'm banking on the Thunder to pull this one out.
With Oklahoma City poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2005, when the franchise was in Seattle, the Thunder still have their sights set on the division title.
They come in after a 91-75 win over defending NBA champion Los Angeles, their 12th win in 14 games at the Ford Center, snapping a 12-game losing streak against the Lakers.
Now three games back of front-running Denver, the Thunder can distance themselves from the Blazers with a convincingt win tonight.
2♦ THUNDER