DAVE COKIN
MICHIGAN STATE VS LOUISVILLE
PLAY: LOUISVILLE +2.5
KISS. That stands for Keep It Simple Stupid and I think I’ll heed that advice today. First off I think there is a simple approach to this Michigan State/Louisville duel. Secondly, the way I’ve called too many recent shots, I’m at least a temporary member of the stupid set.
I don’t relish the prospect of trying to beat Tom Izzo. The longtime Spartan coach is as good as it gets come tournament time. But so is Rick Pitino and I just keep staring at one set of numbers regarding Pitino. The guy is now 14-2 against the spread as a an underdog over the past four seasons. I understand that’s not a huge long term sample that one likes to see, but it’s sure not bad.
Beyond that, it’s really tough to make a case for either side here, at least from my vantage point. This is a very even matchup. The Spartans are better offensively, although their inaccuracy at the stripe can be an issue. The Cardinals rate the edge on defense, although it’s not a blowout by any means on that count. Good luck trying to find a coaching advantage.
So in essence I have what looks to me to be a pure coin flip. But I’m getting a basket with the Cardinals and I’ve got Pitino in a role in which he’s flourished spectacularly in recent years. Short and sweet, I’ll take Louisville with the points.
BRAD WILTON
Pretty low total for this East Final at Syracuse, but I still think the Under is the way to go as Michigan State and Louisville play for the right to head to Lucs Oil Stadium next Saturday.
Michigan State held Under the total in their win over Oklahoma on Friday, and Sparty has now played Low in their last pair and 3 of their last 5 overall.
Louisville did slip Over the total against N.C. State, but that Over came by just a half-point, and the Redbirds have still gone 10-4-1 Under the total in their last 15 games contested.
These schools did meet back in the 2012 tournament, with the 'Ville taking a 57-44 decision in a game that held Under the posted price. It may not be that low-scoring today at the Carrier Dome, but I still see this being a half-court contest as the Spartans and Cardinals duke it out in a low-scoring affair.
Take the Under in this Michigan State-Louisville contest.
2* MICHIGAN STATE-LOUISVILLE UNDER
SCOTT DELANEY
For my complimentary winner, I turn to the Gonzaga-Duke clash in the regional semifinal, and look to the Under in this one.
I watched Gonzaga in person, in Las Vegas, just a couple weeks back in the West Coast Conference tournament and the one thing I took from there is the Bulldogs can be physical and when necessary will slow things down. That'll be the motive tonight against Duke, if they want to put them on the ropes and stagger them enough to keep them frustrated offensively.
The last thing you want these Blue Devils to do, especially with Jahlil Okafor leading the charge, is get on a run offensively. Okafor is unstoppable at times, and is capable of giving the Bulldogs fits when he's on the court. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes with 20 points and 10 rebounds, but the Bulldogs will have to make him work for it, while establishing a physical presence.
In turn, the Devils must disrupt the Dawgs in the backcourt early, and force bad shots. I'm betting Przemek Karnowski will continue his domination in the paint, but if his guards are struggling under pressure, that drive-and-kick game will suffer, as will the 3-point shooting.
I don't know who wins this game, quite honestly, but what I do know is these two are going to play a very tight game, will pressure the ball at the halfcourt line and will use the full shot clock for most of the time. This one stays low.
4* Gonzaga/Duke UNDER
GABRIEL DUPONT
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Cleveland - The final major road trip for the Cavaliers is a wrap, and it's all about focusing on closing the season strong. They need a ton of momentum heading into the final stretch, and the opening round of the playoffs. A solid blowout at home is just what the doctor ordered, after a tough loss in Brooklyn the other night.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Philadelphia - The Sixers arein after a 119-98 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, which brought to halt a two-game home winning streak. We all know they can't match talent with the Cavs, and are in a tough spot here, with Cleveland looking to rebound from Friday's loss.
Why CLEVELAND is my SMART PLAY in this game - Cleveland will play six of its final eight games at home, where it has won 15 in a row. The Cavaliers' magic number is seven, to win the Central Division, and the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Motivation is on Cleveland's side in this one, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cavs win by 25.
2* CLEVELAND
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the Philadelphia 76ers plus all of those points in Cleveland.
This is a game the Cavaliers can play at less than full speed and come away with the comfortable win, but this is just too many to lay to a Philly team that has covered both meetings this year versus the Cavs, and have even won outright in one of those two!
The Sixers are also 3-3 straight up their last 6 games, with a 4-2 spread mark to show in that 6 game stretch.
Cleveland is coming off a lack-luster loss in Brooklyn their last time out, and their next game is not slated until Thursday night, but it does come against LeBron's former team the Miami Heat.
I see a 75% effort given today from Cleveland as they do enough to get the win by about 8 or 9 points, making Philadelphia plus the double-digits the way to go.
3* PHILADELPHIA
Rob Vinciletti
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +7.5
We will grab the 7-8 points here with Memphis as they look to rebound off a pair of tough losses and go into San Antonio to take on a Spurs team off a pair of blowout wins. Memphis has won the last 2 in the series and is 6-1 on Sunday and 5-0 after scoring 85 or less points, they are 8-1 on the road if the total is 190 to 195. There is also an 18-4 dog system that applies that plays on rested road dogs of 5 or more with 1 day of rest if they scored less than 90 and failed to cover as a home dog of 4 or less and are playing a team off a home favored win and cover. Spurs may win but we will take the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan State vs. Louisville
Play: Michigan State -2½
Michigan State is on a 10-4 ATS run and beat Oklahoma on Friday while shooting only 38.6 percent from the floor while averaging 47 percent going into the game. The Spartan defense held the Sooners to just 36.4 percent and Travis Trice hit all six of his free throw attempts and led his team with 24 points. Louisville's lack of depth will be a problem as Rick Pitino played only seven players in Friday's win against N.C. State. Montrezl Harrell scored 24 points but he and Terry Rozier played all 40 minutes and the Cardinals had five players log at least 30 minutes and they have been getting above average play from Quentin Snider. Louisville is not likely to shoot 50 percent against this defense as it did on Friday. I had Louisville in that game, it was my Big Dance Tapout GOY and we cashed. But this time I'm playing against Rick Pitino's troops. I'm recommending a play on Michigan State minus the points.
Nick Parsons
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
Play: Detroit Pistons +3
The Detroit pistons’ have been playing some good basketball, even though their season is over. They have won five of their last six games and four straight. The Pistons are 28-44 on the season and 13-23 on the road. They have won two in a row away from home. They are coming off a 111-97 win over the Orlando Magic. Reggie Jackson led the Detroit offense with a triple-double of 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Tayshaun Prince chipped in with 23 points off the bench.
The Miami Heat have lost three of their last four and looked bad in a 99-86 loss to Atlanta. The Heat were led by Luol Deng with 17 points and 10 rebounds. The rest of the Heat team didn’t show up. The Heat shot just 39 percent from the field and it was only their 11 made three-pointers that kept the final score respectable in the end. Miami has compiled a 33-39 record on the season which leaves them just one game clear of the eighth-placed Boston in the Eastern standings.
The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss.
Head to head, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the under is 17-6-1 in the last 24 meetings in Miami.
I am playng on the Pistons in this one. They are playing better basketball at the moment. Miami has gone through a stretch where they can’t seem to close teams out even when they have big leads. I like this Pistons to keep this one close and even pull out the win in the end.
Jim Feist
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing very good, losing just three times in their last 13 games. However, with the last part of the schedule at hand, have to wonder how much the Cavs will invest in this game against the Sixers. The Cavs have no shot at catching Atlanta for 1st in the East. They have a solid hold on 2nd right now, 2 1/2 games ahead of Chicago. The Cavs play six of their last eight at home and aside from Chicago and Washington, really have no tough games left. I'm thinking the Cavs will begin to give their top players some time off with the playoffs not far away. The Sixers can cover games, evidenced by their 4-2 ATS mark the last six games and 18-10 ATS their last 28. Sixers have also done well against the Cavaliers, covering 10 of the last 13 meetings and five of the last seven in Cleveland. The 17 1/2 points are just too many to pass on here as I look for Cleveland to give Lebron and company some much needed rest. Take the points with Philadelphia.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Pick: Miami Heat
Edges - Heat: 12-6-1 ATS off a loss versus foe off a win this season, including 10-2-1 ATS last thirteen games. Pistons: 12-23 ATS in this series, including 2-10 ATS when Miami if off a loss. With Miami looking to avenge a 17-point loss in their last meeting with Detroit, and the Heat 8-2 ATS at home on Sundays, we recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.
Sleepyj
Memphis +8
Coming off of two stright beatdowns the Grizzlies should bring a little better effort for this one..I like the fact that this is over the key number of 7 and i can grab a +8 for this contest..It's time to start measuring up here for these teams as they come down the stretch...We always have to worry who the Spurs might play as well..Even if the Spurs go 100% i still like this Memphis defense to hang in this game...Memphis can slide further down in the playoff matchups here....I'm not sure they want to tablge with anyone else in the opening round besides OKC or Dallas....I'm playing the number here and the fact that Memphis is coming off two blowout losses.
Anthony Michael
Duke -2.5
Gonzaga has had a strong team for several years now but this is their usual stopping point. They have never advanced beyond the Elite Eight and they have the misfortune of going up against a team that pretty much has dominated over the Coach K years at reaching Final Fours. The ACC has proven to be the best conference in the land and Duke right now is playing better than any team not named Kentucky. Lay this very short number with Duke here.
Jeffrey James
Boston Bruins -150
Boston is in a desperate drive to make the playoffs and they need every point they can get. No way they are not going to be ready here against the lousy Hurricanes. Boston picked up a win on Saturday and they will be focused here to get this win against a team that has thrown in the towel on the season. Play the Bruins as the play of the day.
LT Profits
Gonzaga +2.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have shown that having the second best winning percentage in the nation with a 35-2 record is not a fluke despite hailing from the lightly regarded WCC, and we look for them to prove that further with a mild upset of the Duke Blue Devils. Not that there should have been much doubt the Bulldogs are for real based on their strong non-conference schedule where their only loss was in overtime by three points at Arizona, but there was a long interval between power-conference opponents while they dominated the WCC. That came to an end the last two games and Gonzaga responded with easy double-digit wins over Iowa and UCLA. Duke is a deserving one-seed, but the Blue Devils did not shoot well while beating Utah Friday and Gonzaga’s size should give them serious problems. Gonzaga is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Cajun Sports
Los Angeles vs. Boston
Play: Under 207
The Clippers travel to the northeast for a meeting against the hometown Celtics on Sunday evening tipoff is set for 6:05PM Eastern Time. We know to play the Under when Boston is coming off a su win as a favorite and going Under the posted total and now installed as an Underdog in the current price range. The Celtics have gone Under at a rate of 4-13-1 Under their last eighteen in this situation. We also want to Play the Under on the LA Clippers when they are coming off back-to-back su victories and are now a non-conference road favorite. LA has gone Under at a rate of 5-15 Under their last twenty qualifying contests. We want to Play UNDER on home underdogs who are coming off a su win and going Under on the road versus a losing team, 39-62-1 Under. If our home underdog was a favorite in their last game the record is 8-27 Under. Finally we want to Play Under with a non-conference road favorite in this price range who is coming off su and ats victories in their last two games, 45-70-3 Under.