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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 3

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington State at WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Washington StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither of these Pac-12 entries enjoying a banner campaign. But not sure we want to lay a price that could hit double digits with U-Dub squad that has proven too erratic for our tastes much of this season. The Huskies’ “O” often bogs down due to erratic perimeter shooting by main three-point threats C.J. Wilcox & Scott Suggs, who have each failed to can a triple in several recent games. When their deep bombs are off the mark, U-Dub can’t effectively space its offense, with unreliable scoring threats in the post. Wazzu is hungry to reverse its recent drought in the hoops version of the Apple Cup. And the Cougs rarely lose touching distance in games vs. hated Huskies. Wazzu makes this one interesting in Seattle if it improves upon its subpar 36.8% shooting that doomed it in its earlier 68-63 loss vs. UW in the Palouse back on Jan. 5. Play Washington State

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:33 am
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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Villanova +10 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers already have their ticket stamped to the NCAA tournament. They come in with a 23-7 overall record, they’re 10-6 in the brutally tough Big East and they’re ranked #23 in the country. Pittsburgh’s next order of business is to improve its seeding in both the upcoming Big East Tournament and subsequent March Madness Tournament. With just one game left after this one, next Saturday at DePaul, the Panthers are not in a do or die situation. Even in a more dire situation, we’re not sure the Panthers should be this high of a price over the Wildcats.
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Villanova sits right on the bubble. Its remaining game after this one is a road contest at #7 Georgetown on Wednesday. If they lose both, Villanova still has to be considered for an at-large bid because of three key victories over Louisville, Syracuse and Marquette. However, should the Wildcats win one of these last two games, they will assure themselves of getting in and they certainly don’t want to leave it to the final game. One of the most unheralded stories of this season has been Villanova’s strong defense. The Cardinals and the Orange get all the attention when it comes to D in the Big East but it's actually ‘Nova that's limiting conference opponents to the lowest 2-point shooting percentage (40.9) of any team in the conference. For the Wildcats to have a chance here, they’ll have to play strong defense again and take care of the ball. Should that come to pass, the Wildcats can pull off this upset. Should it not, they’re still likely to cover this large number.
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COLUMBUS +110 over ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The big news surrounding this game is the return of Ryan O’Reilly to the Avalanche lineup. O’Reilly might turn out to be a great player. He showed signs of that last year but in two previous seasons he recorded 26 and 26 points in 74 and 81 games respectively. O’Reilly has not played this season so expecting him to make an immediate impact is unreasonable. Yet, his return is creating a market overreaction. Colorado has lost four straight on the road and eight of 10 road games on the year. Over their last four road tilts, the Avs have allowed 17 goals against while scoring just 10. Colorado’s goaltending can best be described as shaky. Clearly, the Avs are overpriced here.
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The Jackets own the NHL’s worst record with 14 points in 21 games but they’re not far off from the middle of the pack. Columbus has had its share of hard luck with seven of their last nine losses being decided by one goal. Against Dallas and in Chicago over their past two, the Jackets have lost both in OT. Prior to that, Columbus lost by a goal to Anaheim, St. Louis and Los Angeles. This is a well-coached, hard-working underdog that is not playing with their heads down. After facing nine quality opponents in succession that are either among the elite or are highly probable to quality for this year’s playoffs, the Jackets will welcome this lesser opponent.
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Carolina -½ +150 over FLORIDAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. These two have met twice this year with the Panthers winning on opening night 5-1 and Carolina returning the favor last night by a 6-2 count. That opening night, four-goal win by Florida is one of the season’s most misleading scores as the Hurricanes outshot Florida 42-25 and out-chanced them 26-11. The ‘Canes dominated play again last night in Carolina, which was no coincidence considering that the team appears healthy again. Joel Skinner and Tim Gleason both returned to the line-up and Carolina responded with one of its most dominating performances of the year. The Canes are just two games above .500, which is allowing us to spot a cheap price in backing one of the most talented and potent clubs in the league.
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The Panthers are a mess right now. Crippling injuries to key players, erratic goaltending, six wins in 21 games and allowing four goals or more in four straight is all the information we need to fade this host against a vastly superior opponent that is on the verge of shooting up the standings.
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DALLAS -103 over St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Brian Elliott of the Blues hasn't started since February 11. Elliott was in the center of the Blues five-game losing streak when he allowed 26 goals against in those five games. He enters this one with a 3.57 GAA and .849 SV%. The Blues decision to start him against this potent offense on the road may be ill-advised if they’re looking for him to regain confidence. The Blue Notes have lost three of their past five games with only victories over that span coming against Columbus and Edmonton and they were both played in St. Louis. The Blues have also lost seven of their past eight against the Pacific Division.
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Dallas is coming off its worst loss of the season in Kari Lehtonen’s return to action. This will be Lehtonen’s second game back and chances are he’ll be much sharper. The Stars #1 netminder is still 7-3-1 on the year with a .2.38 GAA and .927 save percentage. Because of its pedestrian record, small following and last place position in the Pacific, Dallas remains an undervalued club. They are however, a team on the rise that rarely gets outplayed or outworked. Dallas is still a game over .500 while playing in the NHL’s toughest division, where all five teams are most likely headed to the playoffs. The Stars remain high on our value list and will remain there until they give us reason to think differently.
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Pass NBA

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:35 am
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Joe GavazziFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A young Michigan team, unaccustomed to the grind and hoopla of the Big 10 season, has fallen flat on their face. Since a 20-1 SU, 13-6 ATS beginning, they have gone 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS. It was keyed by an 81-73 loss at Indiana, included a 75-52 loss to these Spartans, and reached the nadir of their discontent with the Wednesday loss at PSU, 84-78, when they blew a late game double digit lead. Note, however, that none of those were at Chrisler Arena, where they are 31-2 SU L2Y, and 16-1 SU this season. This home floor will be a valuable ally when I note to you that sixth year HC Beilein is 16-1 ATS at home, playing with double digit revenge for an earlier road loss. The Spartans have had their own issues of late, with consecutive losses to OSU and Indiana. With Izzo a long-term 16-32 ATS as road dog of 6 or less, it is no surprise if Sparty continues their own late season failures.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:36 am
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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lakers -5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Grab the J Oster's late call as they go for a seventh straight home victory over the Atlanta Hawks. believe it or not these Lakers will be trying to get to the.500 mark ... 29-30 ... wow...The Hawks 33-24 and are catching 5.5 on the road... Power Rated @ Lakers - 8.5 points.... The play last night was the Ugly Dog Miss State Rebels + 12.5 an outright W.... today we go Ugly Favorite...88-80 FINAL

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:37 am
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Sean Higgs

Los Angeles Clippers -2

I normally don't like home teams that lay less than 3, but I will still ride LAC here. Home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Clippers 21-10 ATS last 31 in the series and 4-1 ATS last 5 at home. Thunder struggling going 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:38 am
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David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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DePaul vs. South FloridaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DePaulFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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DePaul is coming off a 79-58 loss to Louisville on the 27th. Brandon Young had 22 points; Cleveland Melvin added 20. ''I think we just let up,'' Young said after. ''We can go as hard as we want to. We just kept letting them do what they like to do. I don't think we stopped it real well.''
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South Florida is coming off a 64-44 loss at Pittsburgh on the 27th. Victor Rudd had 16 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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DePaul is 6-3 ATS on the road this year, and 4-3 ATS after three or more consecutive losses.
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South Florida is 3-12 ATS vs. conference opponents, and just 3-6 ATS after three or more consecutive losses.
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Pick Analysis
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These two bottom feeders have played every year since 1995. Last season USF won 75-59. But DePaul is a year older, and I don't think the Bulls have anyone that can properly matchup against Young and Melvin. In this game of very evenly matched schools, I'll recommend in grabbing the points!

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:39 am
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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that 200 or more points will be scored in this game. The Miami have the best supporting cast in the NBA and it showed in their last game. They defeated Memphis, who had won eight straight games without James shooting the lights out. It marked only the second time he has shot under 40% from the field in a game this season. The Knicks have blown out Miami twice this season and the second time was without the scoring services of Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks have defeated the Heat with strong perimeter shooting, especially from beyond the arc. This has been the one game plan that the Heat have trouble with this season. When an opponent can spread the Heat defense and force them to respect the perimeter, it opens up the paint play for posts and cutters to score near the rim. The Knicks best in the NBA averaging 29.1 3-point shots per game and first in averaging 10.1 made 3-point shots per game. They don?t have a strong power game in the box overall, but when they start to rain in 3?s, there are opportunities in the paint and to set up mismatches with Anthony posting up. I don?t see the Heat having a consistent answer for this matchup and will simply have to use James, Wade, and Bosh to hopefully outscore the Knicks. Take the OVER.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 10:44 am
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Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is on an absolute roll playing a Knicks team that has been doing just enough to get by on this 3 game win streak where they have played bad teams. Never go against a huge double digit winning streak. James has been on fire for Miami and I expect him to go off today in the garden. Take Miami
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Michigan State +4.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan is coming off a horrific loss at Penn State. That is pretty bad and its hard to regain focus or confidence playing a team like Michigan State coached by one of the greatest coaches of all time. Tom Izzo doesn’t get enough credit and this late in the year these are the guys who get it done in March. Take the Spartans.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:06 am
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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami -4 over NEW YORK: Big revenge spot here fr the Heat as they are looking to avenge two 20 point losses to the Knicks this year. The Knicks have won 3 in a row, but only beat the Sixers by 6 at home, beat Golden State by 4 at home and struggled mightily with the Wizards fr 3 quarters before having a big 4th quarter to get the win. Overall the Knicks are just 3-4 in their last 7 games and teams are starting to figure out their 3 point shooting as they have hit just 27.8% from long range in their last 5 games. That is big because the Knicks hit a ton of threes to crush the Heat in 2 earlier games his year. The Knicks have averaged just 95.5 ppg in their last 7 games and without those three's how will they stay in this game vs a Miami team that seems unstoppable on offense right now. During their 13 game win streak the Heat have averaged 108.3 ppg and they have won all but 1 of those games by more than 4 points. This is not a god spot for a struggling Knick team to be taking on a hot Miami team that has revenge on their minds. This one could be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.
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NORTH CAROLINA -13 over Florida State: North Carolina is getting hot at just the right time and they seem like a much better team now that the have gone t the 4 guard lineup. They get out and run and get allot of easy baskets that way. The Heels have had no problems scoring a home as they average 80.9 ppg on their home foor, outscoring opponents by 14.6 pg here as well. How good is this offense right now? Well a few games ago they hung 93 points up on the leagues best defense (Virginia) in this very building. Not good news for an FSU squad that scores just 58.8 ppg on the road. Florida State has gone just 1-5 in their last 6 ACC games and have been outscored by an average of 19.4 ppg in those 5 losses. The Heels are rejuvenated and if FSU can lose by 25 points at Wake Forest then they surely can and will lose by at least 14 in this one.
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More later

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:08 am
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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia vs. Boston CollegeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston CollegeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Isn’t a let down almost guaranteed for the Cavaliers in this one? Virginia is coming off its biggest win in more than a decade, as the Cavaliers defeated No. 3 Duke on Thursday, their first win over a top-five opponent since February 28, 2002. I had UVa in its win over Duke and mentioned that head coach Tony Bennett was starting to get the hang of things at UVa. He had back-to-back 26-win seasons in his three years at Washington St but went just 15-16 and 16-15 in his first two seasons at Virginia. However, the Cavs won 22 games last year and made the NCAAs. Thursday’s win clinched Virginia's second straight 20-win season (20-8 / 10-5 in the ACC), something the school hasn't accomplished since a five-year stretch that ended with the 1992-93 season. Now there is no doubt that guard Joe Harris (17.3-4.2) and 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell (12.8-8.8) are superb players but no other teammate averages more than 6.8 PPG. That lack of balance has shown on the ACC road, where the Cavs are just 2-5 SU. Laying points here at BC, off that HUGE win over Duke, seems like the perfect setting for a Virginia let down. After all, BC has been highly competitive in all ACC home games, except the team’s 82-70 loss to North Carolina. BC owns home wins over Clemson. Maryland and Wake Forest plus has one-point losses vs Duke and Miami, along with a five-point loss to NC St. Let me also note that in 6-8 forward Anderson (15.3- 8.1) plus freshman guard Olivier Hanlan (14.4-4.1), the Eagles just may have a duo which can match up with Harris and Mitchell. Of note, Hanlan is the only ACC freshman in the league's top 10 in scoring and the only rookie in the conference who ranks among the top six in scoring, rebounds and assists. take the points.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:30 am
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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You should play on favorites like Miami when they are a hot team that has won 20 or more of their last 25 games, and they are winning between 60-75% or more of their total games on the season. This system is 59-27 (68.6%) over the last 5 seasons. The Knicks are in a complete opposite situation having lost four of their last seven games and a 1-7-1 record ATS in their last nine games.
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You should also play on road favorites like Miami when they are allowing 43.5-45.5% shooting playing against a poor defensive team allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting after 42+ games and they are a good ball handling team with less than 14.5 turnovers playing against a poor pressure defense team. This system is 177-108 (62.1%) since 1996. The Knicks don’t play a lot of defense forcing an average of only 14 turnovers. Miami has a lot of offensive firepower so the Knicks won’t be able to get into a shootout and their lack of defense makes Miami the value play in this game.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:31 am
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Tony KarpinskiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clips are a strong home squad, who will be pumped up playing in LA, vs a conference challenger jockeying for playoff positioning. The Clips have their own guard condition that is pretty rock solid with CP3, and his 16/9. Lob City runs how CP3 runs, easy as that. I think the home court will be the difference here along with double revenge.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:32 am
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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls +7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Bulls come into this game with the Indiana Pacers highly motivated for a victory. That's because they have lost the first two meetings with the Pacers this season. They fell 76-80 at home on December 4th, and 101-111 on the road on February 4th. It's payback time tonight for the Bulls.
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Chicago comes in playing well having won its last two games by double-digits. Indiana is also playing well coming in, winners of six of its last seven games overall. However, that's why I feel the Pacers are a bit overvalued in this spot.
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This play falls into a system that is 97-46 (67.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHICAGO) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season.
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The Bulls are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games overall. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. Bet the Bulls Sunday.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:32 am
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Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Manhattan +7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think we are getting some pretty good value here with the Jaspers on the road. Not much separates these two in conference play and any time I get a leagues top defense getting a good amount of points I like to take them. The Jaspers are 7-0 ATS on the road in MAAC play as a road dog. 7 points is a lot for a team that is 37th in 2 point defense. Loyola will take 77% of their shots inside and I think the Jaspers should be able to continue their dominant defensive play. Loyola just lost to Iona which was a huge seeding loss for them so I see them being a little hung over for this game to. After all they are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a road win % of less than 40%.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:33 am
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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Mavericks +5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mavs aren't getting the respect they deserve here. Five of their last seven losses have come by five points or less. Plus, they've won both meetings with Houston this season and nine straight in the series. Houston will be hungry to end the skid, but Dallas will be every bit as hungry as it trails the Rockets by five games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. This is the first game of a home-and-home with Houston so Dallas is looking at this as an opportunity to get right back in the thick of things. Fading favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have a winning record on the season and are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent where they allowed 100 points or more in each loss has produced a 78-43 ATS record the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 5.9 points on average but have won by only 2.8 on average. Take Dallas.

 
Posted : March 3, 2013 11:34 am
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