Jeff Benton
Sunday freebie is the Hornets as the home chalk over the Cavaliers.
Cleveland did win and cover the last series meeting back on February 20th, but with the Cavaliers injury situation continuing to mount - Waiters now sidelined - I think it is time New Orleans continues their recent series domination.
Prior to that loss on 2/20, New Orleans had won three in a row over Cleveland, covering in two of the three.
The Cavaliers are currently riding an eight game losing streak as they arrive in the Big Easy, and they have dropped 12 of their last 14 overall straight up, with covers in just three of their last seven setbacks.
The Hornets have dropped two in a row - both at home - but they have also bested Denver (stopped their long winning streak!) !), Boston and Memphis on this homestand already!
This is a definite step down in competition, so no issue laying a few here with the Hornets to get back on the right side of things versus the walking-wounded Cavs.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is on the Miami Heat plus the number in San Antonio, as this is one of those game we're going to see if LeBron James and company learned their lesson the other night in Chicago.
Miami had its 27-game win streak snapped in Chicago earlier this week, but then the Heat rolled into New Orleans and took out all the aggression on the Hornets in a blowout win. Now that the Heat have had a chance to cool off and should be ready to play level-headed and focus, it's time to make a statement against one of the Western Conference's top two seeds.
And there's more to bragging rights at stake in this game, as the Heat (57-15) bring a two-game lead in the standings over the Spurs (55-17) into this interconference showdown. A win would give Miami a four-game cushion with nine remaining, and make note, the Heat would control any potential head-to-head tiebreaker with San Antonio.
Lose to the Spurs, and it's a race to the finish.
I know San Antonio has won 28 of its last 30 games at home, but I'm not scared to take the points in this one, as the best team in basketball had its wake-up call in Chicago.
Time to head home after a significant win.
1♦ MIAMI
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Florida -3 over MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Gators defeated the Cinderella Eagles by 12. They never led by more than 13 and they failed to cover by a point (depending on where you shopped it). They were in total control of that game after falling behind early and it seemed like they could’ve named the score. Watching it, you got the sense that something didn’t smell right. Every time the Eagles cut the lead to six or seven, which wasn’t often, Florida easily took it back up to 10 or 11 but not past 13. Despite dominating the boards and defense, the Gators margin hung around the 10-13 point range the entire second half. The Gators missed four out of five free throws in the final minute. It was such a disappointing loss (against the number) on so many levels but it sure isn’t going to deter us from coming right back on them here. Michigan got lucky against Kansas, plain and simple. The Wolverines were the “wrong side” that won. Aside from erasing an 11-point deficit with four minutes to go, the Wolverines needed Elijah Johnson to miss the front end of the biggest one-and-one in the game to leave the window open for Trey Burke to nail his NBA-range 3-pointer to send the game into overtime. Now Michigan has to regroup after that wild celebration, which has the Wolverines primed for at least a modest hangover. Against Kansas, the young Wolverines had the games of their lives and it’s highly doubtful they can repeat that. Freshman Mitch McGary is coming off his career game with 25 points and 14 boards. Fellow freshman Glenn Robinson III contributed with 13 points, eight rebounds and three steals. A third freshman, Nik Stauskas, also enjoyed his best game of the tourney. Two more freshmen -- guards Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert -- routinely get significant minutes off the bench. That's five freshmen in the Wolverines' nine-man rotation and we're not talking about the Fab Five here, none of these five will be drafted in the NBA lottery. For the Wolverines, it’s over.
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The Gators are truly beasts. Given the situation and considering all the talent, experience and intangibles, no matter how we break it down, we just can’t envision the Wolverines winning or covering this small price. Just about every key player in Billy Donovan's rotation played in the Gators' crushing Elite Eight loss to Louisville last season, a game in which the Cardinals overcame a double-digit deficit with only eight minutes to play to steal the game. Florida has had an easy road to this point, defeating Northwestern State, Minnesota and FCGU. They have barely broken a sweat yet. We saw what a bigger Kansas team did to the Wolverines for 36 minutes. It was a mismatch and you can be damn sure that Billy Donovan is going to dissect the tape of that game to his guys and exploit the Wolverines weaknesses even more. Once you are exposed, trouble is on the horizon. Kansas exposed the Wolverines and now the Gators will finish the deal against this spent underdog.
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Louisville -3½ over DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Devils stock is soaring after they defeated the Spartans by 10-points. The Coach K, Tom Izzo matchup was close for the first half but the Dukies had a comfortable lead the entire second half where the outcome was rarely in doubt. Great win by the Blue Devils but we’re not buying into their dominance. It was just one of those games in which everything went ”not according to form”. Seth Curry hit six of nine tries from beyond the arc while coming within a single bucket of matching his season high in scoring. The Blue Devils hit 24 of their 26 foul shots, which was well above their 73% season average from the charity stripe. The Dukies also committed just seven turnovers, again, well below their season average and they avoided any semblance of foul trouble. Don’t bet on the stars being aligned perfectly again. The Dukies rotation lacks depth. Four of Duke's five starters played at least 36 minutes in that tough, physical contest against Michigan State and it certainly won't get easier against the country’s best defense. Duke's biggest weaknesses, limited depth, lack of low-post muscle and poor rebounding are all issues that Louisville can exploit.
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The Cardinals were an 11½-point favorite over the Ducks so winning that game was expected. Of all the games up to this point this weekend, that Oregon/Louisville game had the lowest TV rating. In other words, Louisville hasn’t brought much attention to itself and that works in our favor with this beatable line. The Cardinals sometimes poor shooting during the regular season has been a nonfactor recently, hitting better than 50 percent of their shots over their last five games. It's also worth noting that Rick Pitino's depth works strongly in his favor in this matchup, as only Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng played more than 25 minutes in Friday's win over Oregon.Duke won the first meeting between these two teams this season, a post-Thanksgiving matchup in the Bahamas. The Cardinals shot better than Duke, forced 14 Blue Devils turnovers, won the rebounding battle and dominated the offensive glass even without the injured Dieng but still lost the game. Duke got the calls, making 23 free throws compared to only nine for Louisville. We saw what Syracuse did to Marquette in the rematch game and we expect nothing less from the Cardinals. The partisan crowd in Indianapolis doesn't hurt either.
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Pass NBAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +119 over PHILADELPHIAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Flyers beat the Bruins in an afternoon game yesterday. They were lucky to do so in a game that was mostly played in Philadelphia’s end. The two points can be credited to Ilya Bryzgalov, as the netminder had a rare, spectacular game. For the Flyers, it was the same old, same old. They were the slower team on the ice and they were outplayed and outworked again. This year’s Flyers are one of the NHL’s weakest teams and the proof is in the pudding. Philly hasn’t won three games in a row the entire season. It has won two in a row just four times this year and it is 1-5 over its past six following a win. The Flyers are ahead of one team in the Eastern Conference, the Florida Panthers and they’re ahead of just two teams in the West, Colorado and Calgary. The Flyers gave already lost twice to the Panthers and have yet to play Colorado or Calgary. The inferior team here is favored in a game that at worst should be a pick-em.
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Washington earned a well-deserved, 4-3 come from behind victory over the Sabres in Buffalo last night. Trailing 3-1 going to the third but dominating play the entire game, Washington stuck to its game, finally beat a hot Jonas Enroth for a couple of goals and won it in the shootout. The stats: Washington 38 shots and 23 scoring chances, Buffalo 23 shots and 9 scoring chances. It was the Caps sixth win in their past nine games with two losses over that span occurring against Pittsburgh and Boston. Washington is one of the strongest skating teams in the league and that’s a huge problem for the Flyers. What is most surprising about the Caps is they rank second in the NHL on the power-play with an eye-opening rate of 24.1% and they're eighth in the league in goals per game. The Capitals are getting stronger. They can pull into a tie for the eighth and final playoff spot with a win here. Bottom line is we’d much rather have our money on a team shooting up the standings, playing solid hockey and taking back a price as oppose to the inferior team, stuck in hell, laying one.
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Florida / Michigan Under 132FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida was content to run and gun during the regular season but Billy Donovan's bunch has been much more conservative offensively this month. Gators are content to run clock when they get a lead and have gone 10-2 to the under their last 12 games. Linemaker has again overvalued the Gators today so lets go under the total of 132.
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Duke vs. LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Over 137FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these coaches have a history of playing deep into the tournament, so neither team should be excessively tight in this game. Louisville is the #1 see overall, and has played like it thus far with three easy wins. They get a lot off their pressure defense, but I think a lot of that will be negated by the Duke backcourt with Sulaimon, Curry, Thornton and Cook keeping control of the ball. The quartet of guards has 382 assists to just 202 turnovers on the season. Duke turns the ball over just 10.4 times per game on the season. And, this team shoots the ball better than any team Louisville has seen this season. The top three Blue Devils scorers all shoot 46% or better on the season. Duke also has five players that hit better than 38% from beyond the arc - something Louisville has not seen all season. Duke isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past having allowed seven teams in ACC play to top 70 on them. Most of those were the good teams in the league, so I expect this one to play a lot higher scoring than what most think. Louisville has now gone OVER nine straight times on a neutral court and seven straight OVER overall. Take the OVER.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have shown why they are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They won their first two games against North Carolina A&T (79-48) and Colorado State (82-56) by a combined 57 points.
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Louisville went on to beat Oregon (77-69) in the Sweet 16 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It jumped out to a 24-8 lead and never looked back against the Ducks.
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While Duke has posted three straight double-digit victories, I look for its guards to struggle with Louisville’s press. Having only one day to prepare for it is simply not enough, which is why I like the Cardinals to advance to the Final Four for a second straight year.
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The Cardinals have forced 20 or more turnovers in five of their last eight games overall. Their defense has been playing at a very high level over the past month, which is a big reason why they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
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Duke is 1-9 ATS after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Louisville is 15-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Cardinals' style is so tough to beat in these tournament games. Bet Louisville Sunday.
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Michigan vs. FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Billy Donovan's Florida Gators matchup well against No. 4 Michigan. This tenacious Gators group are very capable of pressuring Wolverines point guard Trey Burke into rushing his shots, and are more than capable of out muscling forward Mitch McGary in the paint! The Gators ability to to play zone, and to adjust their defense will be the difference maker today!
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -3.5 over Duke: Gonna go with the team that I felt has been the best team in the nation down the stretch. Louisville has been a very dominant down the stretch, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since their loss to the Irish. They have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg during the win streak and have held 11 of those opponents to 61 points or less. Duke has not been as impressive down the stretch. Duke Has gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games, but just 4-4 ATS, while losing to Virginia on the road and Maryland in the ACC tournament, plus they struggled with Albany in their opening game of the NCAA Tournament, in those last 8 games. Lets also note that despite the fact that Duke beat Louisville earlier in the year, they are still 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs the Big East. The Offenses can put points on the board, but I feel that Louisville has a decided edge on defense. Louisville's defenses is number 1 in the country in terms of efficiency. Duke's is 17th, but they do allow 7.2 ppg more than the Cardinals do. Both teams are 9-1 in neutral site games this year, but Duke has allowed 64 ppg in those games, while the Cardinals have allowed just 58.1. Away from home this year Duke has allowed 70 ppg on 47% shooting, while the Cardinals have allowed 60.2 ppg on 37.9% shooting when taking to the road. The Cardinals have the clear edge on defense and that defense has carried them for much of the year and it will do so again here. Late FT's has Louisville pulling away for a 7-10 points win.
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Texas vs. HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that more than nine runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 ‘OVER’ record for 74% winners since 1997. Play Over with all teams against the total (TEXAS) and was a good team from last season winning between 54% to 62% of their games and playing a terrible team from last year that win <=38%. This marks the last season that Houston will be in the National League and it will be potentially one of the worst victory laps in the history of MLB. They have some talent led by Carlos Lee and starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez, but generally this team is a barely above the Triple-A level of play. Texas will have a potent lineup again and are contenders in the AL West, which will be the most highly contested division in baseball this season. Harrison starts for Texas while Nurd Norris will start for Houston. Norris is one of the under rated players on the Astros. He is a strikeout starter, who will post solid season stats, but his win-loss record will suffer due to poor defensive play and/or poor offensive production. However, I am focused on tonight’s game and I Bellevue the hitters on both clubs will get to both starters. Take the ‘OVER’
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Toronto vs WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Washington Wizards have been a different team at home than on the road, and they'll aim for their seventh straight victory at Verizon Center when they host the Toronto Raptors tonight. The Wizards are coming off consecutive road losses to Oklahoma City and Orlando, but they're riding their longest home winning streak since a 10-game run in 2006-07. The Raptors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference while Washington is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami/ San Antonio Under 198; Gonna go right to the big one and normally in big games you tend to see a lower scoring game. That hasn't happened that much in this series of late, but I feel it will today and it all starts with defense. Miami has struggled some with their defense in the first half of games, but this team has made the Adjustments and have been light's out at the end of the floor in the second half. Overall the heat are 7th in points allowed (95.5 ppg), while allowing just 94.9 ppg on the road. Granted the Spurs average 105.6 ppg at home, but not today as this Heat defense is just too locked in. The Heat average 99.4 ppg on the road, but I don't see them putting that up here vs a Spurs team that allows just 94.2 ppg on their home floor. We know that these teams have the ability to score a ton, but defense will win this game and that has me expecting no more than 190 points.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars +101
The Los Angeles Kings are 19-12-3 on the year, but just 7-8-2 on the road this season. They are coming off a 4-3 shootout loss last night in Minnesota, and will be playing in their 4th straight road game tonight. It will be a quick turn around for the Kings with last night’s game an 8:00 PM EST start and today’s a 6:00 PM EST start. The Kings had played three playoff teams this week leading up to this game (Chicago, St Louis, Minnesota) and tonight’s game in Dallas seems to be a let down spot for the Kings. Dallas is 16-14-3 on the year, and 8-7-2 at home. They are coming off a 5-3 home win vs Minnesota, making them 3-1 in their last 4 games. One of those wins was a 2-0 victory in Los Angeles. The Stars are actually 2-0 against the Kings this season with both games being played in Los Angeles. Dallas is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with the Kings. This should be a good spot for the Stars behind Kari Lehtonen who had a 40 save shutout last time these two teams last week. I’ll take the Stars as home underdogs vs the Kings on less than 24 hours rest.