Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday March, 4

Ohio State at Michigan State
The Spartans look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 home games. Michigan State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-2 1/2)

Game 817-818: Clemson at Florida State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 61.499; Florida State 71.749
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 10 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Florida State by 6 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 819-820: Kentucky at Florida (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 79.637; Florida 70.223
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 9 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4; 141
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-4); Over

Game 821-822: Michigan at Penn State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 68.224; Penn State 59.373
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9; 126
Vegas Line: Michigan by 5; 121
Dunkel Pick Michigan (-5); Over

Game 823-824: Ohio State at Michigan State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 71.627; Michigan State 78.497
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7; 125
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Illinois at Wisconsin (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 60.547; Wisconsin 74.171
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 13 1/2; 109
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 10 1/2; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-10 1/2); Under

Game 827-828: Virginia at Maryland (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 65.173; Maryland 61.666
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 4 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-3 1/2); Over

Game 829-830: Arizona at Arizona State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 61.071; Arizona State 50.947
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10; 127
Vegas Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-8 1/2); Over

Game 831-832: California at Stanford (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 65.444; Stanford 67.546
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 2; 125
Vegas Line: California by 1; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+1); Under

Game 833-834: Purdue at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 72.122; Indiana 75.623
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 3 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+6 1/2); Over

Game 835-836: NC State at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.437; Virginia Tech 62.625
Dunkel Line: NC State by 1; 128
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+1 1/2); Under

Game 837-838: Old Dominion vs. Drexel (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 60.001; Drexel 64.883
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 5; 122
Vegas Line: Drexel by 3; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-3); Over

Game 839-840: George Mason vs. VCU (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 57.128; VCU 61.499
Dunkel Line: VCU by 4 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: VCU by 6; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+6); Under

Game 841-842: Illinois State vs. Creighton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 61.040; Creighton 65.775
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 4 1/2; 146
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5; 142
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+5); Over

Game 843-844: Arkansas State vs. Middle Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 50.948; Middle Tennessee State 60.632
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 9 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 8 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 845-846: North Texas vs. UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 55.595; UL-Lafayette 47.015
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 8 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: North Texas by 4; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4); Over

Game 847-848: Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 50.598; Arkansas-Little Rock 54.125
Dunkel Line: Arkansas-Little Rock by 3 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Arkansas-Little Rock by 2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (-2); Under

Game 849-850: South Alabama vs. Denver (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.359; Denver 58.495
Dunkel Line: Denver by 6; 135
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+8 1/2); Over

Game 851-852: Fairfield vs. Iona (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 58.916; Iona 60.787
Dunkel Line: Iona by 3; 138
Vegas Line: Iona by 5 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+5 1/2); Under

Game 853-854: Siena vs. Loyola-MD (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.631; Loyola-MD 53.334
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 3 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 6 1/2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+6 1/2); Over

Game 855-856: Western Carolina vs. NC-Greensboro (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.946; NC-Greensboro 49.014
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 2; 141
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 3; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+3); Under

Game 857-858: Elon vs. Davidson (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 49.078; Davidson 60.475
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 11 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Davidson by 13 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+13 1/2); Under

Game 865-866: Robert Morris at Wagner (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 50.421; Wagner 59.215
Dunkel Line: Wagner by 9; 136
Vegas Line: Wagner by 6; 132
Dunkel Pick: Wagner (-6); Over

Game 867-868: Quinnipiac at Long Island (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 51.401; Long Island 56.420
Dunkel Line: Long Island by 5; 150
Vegas Line: Long Island by 3; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Island (-3); Under

Game 869-870: Albany vs. Stony Brook (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 50.799; Stony Brook 55.119
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 4 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Stony Brook by 3; 133
Dunkel Pick: Stony Brook (-3); Over

Game 871-872: Hartford vs. Vermont (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hartford 43.534; Vermont 54.968
Dunkel Line: Vermont by 11 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Vermont by 8; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vermont (-8); Under

Game 873-874: North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 50.132; Western Illinois 52.642
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 2 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 2; 119
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+2); Over

Game 875-876: Southern Utah vs. Oakland (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 48.450; Oakland 58.311
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 10; 141
Vegas Line: Oakland by 7; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-7); Under

Marc Lawrence

California at Stanford
Prediction: Stanford

When Stanford and California close out the regular season portion of this campaign these two arch rivals will take the court knowing the Cardinal dropped first meeting in Berkeley, 69-59. And wouldn’t you just know that Stanford has posted a strong 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS record in Last Home Games if .650 or better, including 3-0 SU and ATS with revenge. No, we won’t be scared to go bear hunting here, not after Cal’s lethargic effort in last week’s 70-57 loss at Colorado. And especially so given Cal's jaw-dropping 0-18 SU and 4-13-1 ATS mark when visiting .460 or greater foes playing their Last Home Game. We’re aware you may not share our enthusiasm for Stanford in this matchup: the schizoid Cardinal followed a 74-50 destruction of Colorado at Boulder by losing to the awful Utah Utes, 58-57, as 12-point road chalk. But rivalry plays work best with revenge in Last Home Games and this one fits the bill, especially for a team looking to derail its former coach (Mike Montgomery) in a crucial contest. Throw in some one-sided pointspread history – Stanford is 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS versus the Bears at Maples Pavilion while the series visitor is a hapless 3-15 ATS – and we’ll look for the Cardinal to spoil California’s shot at earning a share of this year’s Pac-12 title. Life is just better down on the Farm. We recommend a 1-unit play on Stanford.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Bulls at 76ers
Play: Under

The two top defensive teams in the league square off in the City of Brotherly Love Sunday night with the Sixers looking to snap the Bulls' five-game win streak. However, Philly has a streak of their own going, that being seven consecutive games staying Under the total. Prior to scoring 105 pts against Golden State Friday, the 76ers had not topped the century mark in points scored in a game since January 23rd. Defensively, they allow just 83.9 points/game here at home. Chicago allows just 88.7 PPG for the year. Go Under.

MATT FARGO

Chicago @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia +4

Many will call this a big revenge game for the Bulls but 'revenge' and 'road' is not the best mix in the NBA. Chicago has dropped three straight in this series and it will look to bounce back from those losses including a 16-point setback in the lone meeting this season. It will be easier said than done however as those losses have been no accident as the Bulls simply do not match up well with the Sixers. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite of fewer than five points.

The Sixers bounced back from the Oklahoma City loss as expected as they hammered the Warriors on Friday. We are well aware that Philadelphia has conquered the weak and faltered against the elite for the most part this season but a closer look shows that the scheduling has been tough. The Sixers have played a lot of the elite teams in bunches so getting up and playing strong in consecutive game just has not happened. Philadelphia has covered seven straight games against Central Division teams.

Philadelphia is a tough matchup for Chicago based on its athleticism and simply the way it goes about playing the game. The Sixers allow the fewest points in the NBA while committing the fewest turnovers on offense and those are two recipes for success. They also have incredible balance as six players average double-digits in scoring. While the Sixers have stumbled against the elite for the most part as mentioned, the Bulls are just 4-4 against the top ten in the NBA and their schedule ranking is a weak 28th.

Philadelphia falls into a superior league-wide situation here as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage greater than .750 after having covered four of their last five games against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 52-19 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. The Sixers are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 home games after a win against the number while going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games when the total is set between 180 and 180.9 points.

BRYAN POWER

Miami @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: L.A. Lakers +3

I look for Kobe Bryant and company to exact some revenge for the injury the Lakers star suffered in the All Star Game courtesy of the Heat's Dwyane Wade. It was one week ago that Wade "accidentally" broke Bryant's nose and I'm sure no one on the Los Angeles side has forgotten, particularly Kobe. From a betting perspective, I feel there is solid value on the home dog here as the Lakers have won 16 of their last 17 at Staples Center and catch Miami off its first loss in nearly a month. Look for a carryover effect w/ the Heat 4-16 ATS off a loss by six points or less. LeBron James simply "can't win" at the end of games and I think that questionable late-game decision making is going to start to be a distraction again on South Beach. The Lakers have triple revenge this afternoon and it will be sweet.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Clippers vs Houston Rockets
Pick: Houston Rockets

The LA Clippers have had a decent season, going 21-13 S/U and 18-14 ATS. But I think the club likely thought they would have been doing a bit better with the talent they acquired in the offseason. And lately the Clippers have struggled, going 2-4 S/U and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, by the same standards I would say Houston is having a better season than expected at 21-16 S/U and 20-17 ATS. The Rockets will try to end their two game losing streak today, but still haven't done badly of late. The Rockets are are 7-5 S/U their last 12 games and 7-6 ATS their last 13. Houston has some revenge going here today as they were embarrassed when they visited LA back in January, losing to the Clippers 117-89. I'm taking the Houston who will be looking for some payback.

Dave Cokin

Purdue vs Indiana
Pick: Purdue

Indiana has been very tough at home, but this one has to be huge for Purdue. The Boilermakers were destroyed on their home court by the Hoosiers, so it's a big payback spot and Purdue is playing its best ball all season right now. I'll go for the dog.

Free CBB release for 3/4: Penn State +5.5 over Michigan. We expect Penn State to at least keep this one close, being at home where they are 10-6 SU. While Michigan is 22-8 on the year, they're still just 4-6 away from home. Penn State averages 67.4 points/game at home this year on 42.6% shooting. They outscore their opponents by an average of 6.1 points/game with the home court advantage. Michigan is allowing opponents to sink a whopping 45% of their shots on the road this year, where their average margin is -1.6 points/game. Like in so many series in College Basketball play, the home team holds an ATS advantage here of 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Wolverines are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games as the favorite. We'll take the home dog here, Penn State +5.5. Our free plays are 170-92-1 (65%) all-time. Sign up today for the best free basketball picks on the internet at www.iseewinners.com. Thank you, and best of luck.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +147 over DETROIT

If their last game against Ottawa is any indication of what the Blackhawks are capable of, than the rest of the league better take notice. That 2-1 win on Friday was a rather flattering score to the Senators and was without question, one of the finer performances of the season by any team. Chicago was crisp in moving the puck out, the offense had three lines rolling and creating chances all game and perhaps most importantly, Ray Emery had another strong performance for the second straight game. With Pavel Datsyuk out and possibly Nicklaus Lindstrom also out, this is simply too much weight to be giving the Blackhawks after that inspiring effort against Ottawa. Without Datsyuk, the Red Wings two wins in their past five have come against Columbus and Minnesota. The last five games these two have played, which include four this season, have all been decided by one goal with the Blackhawks winning twice, losing three times but two of those losses occurred in OT. When these two get together, it's a complete toss-up and therefore taking back the 47 cents is where the value lies. Play: Chicago +147 (Risking 2 units).

MINNESOTA +102 over Colorado

Great spot for the Wild in that they're coming off a 6-0 loss to the Red Wings at the Joe but there's more to the story than that. Losses happen and blowouts happen too. However, this wasn't just a loss. This was an embarrassing effort in which the entire game was played in Minnesota's end. It was a shooting gallery out there, as the Red Wings toyed with their feeble opponent. The coaches and players were humiliated and admitted so afterwards. A response to that effort is a must and it is expected to occur here. The Avalanche will arrive here to play their third game in four days and tail end of backs after losing 5-1 at home to the Penguins yesterday. The Avs have dropped two straight and have been outscored 7-1. They've lost six of their past seven games to the Wild, including three out of four this year. With a days’ rest, on home ice, in a better situational spot and against a team they own, the Wild are wrongly being billed as the underdog here. Play: Minnesota +102 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Illinois +10½ over WISCONSIN

The Illini are going to need a lot to go their way if they are to participate in this year’s Madness. While the upcoming conference tournament may play a part, a game like this can also bolster their resume. Illinois has some played an incredibly tough schedule. They have signature wins against Ohio State, Michigan State and Gonzaga. They’ve played a couple of really tough out-of-conference games, including a four-point loss to Missouri. Ken Pomeroy has the Illini ranked 10th in the country in schedule difficulty. These are all things that the committee has to consider and while the Illini's 6-11 conference record is likely going to cost them, a win here could elevate their status tremendously. It will also help that the Badgers have little to play for here. Wisconsin has already punched their ticket to the Dance, they've clinched a first-round bye in the conference tournament and they rarely blow away anyone. Wagering against the Badgers when taking back double digits has been money all season long. When we see a total of 116 on a game in which we're being offered 10½ points, the math says taking the points makes a lot of sense. The situation says take the points too. Play: #825 Illinois +10½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Sacramento +5½ over PHOENIX

There are certain teams in every sport than you can never be comfortable spotting points with and the Suns are in that group. As a pooch, they're interesting but this is an erratic team with a weak defense and at this level, that's too risky. We also dislike the fact that the Suns have been home way too long. Phoenix's last road game was in Los Angeles on Feb 17, more than two weeks ago, making this its sixth straight on the road. Every pro will tell you that extended home stands are not beneficial. The players go their own way after practice and there's no bonding going on. We can't stress enough much these players must be looking forward to getting on the road and playing in Oklahoma City after this one. The Kings are getting better with each passing week. They're coming off back-to-back losses to the Clippers and Lakers but both losses were by just eight. Prior to that they had won two straight over Utah and in Washington. The Kings are dangerous in that they can score and keep pace with anyone. The style the Suns play is one the Kings are very comfortable in and with more depth and a big edge in rebounding, (Sac ranks 5th – Pho ranks 23rd) expect the Kings to be in a position to win this one outright and/or stay in this range. Play: Sacramento +5½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

CHARLOTTE +135 over New Jersey

It sure would be easy to pull the trigger on the Nets here laying three small points over a Bobcat team that has four wins in 34 games. There are certainly sitautions in which laying road points is a huge risk and when you look deep into these games, you can find them. This is one of those extremely vulnerable spots for the chalk. New Jersey will play its third straight on the road since the break. The first game was in Dallas, followed by a game in Boston. Two big games. On Tuesday, the Nets play in Miami and so this ine instantly becomes the most vulnerable on the trip. Also consider that the Nets have several players with nagging injuries and while they're all considered probable, those nagging injuries take their toll. The Bobcats are coming off a four double-digit losses in a row. They're coming off a 30-point loss to San Antonio. The Bobcats stock is lower than anyone else in the Association. However, they return home with a healthy team for the first time all year. Gerald Henderson has two games under his belt since returning. Cory Maggette is feeling much better too. This is not a four-win team. The Bobcats have endured some bad fortune but find themselves in a hugely favorable spot against a vulnerable and beatable visitor. Play: Charlotte +135 (Risking 2 units).

Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers +4

The Philadelphia 76ers should not be an underdog at home to the Chicago Bulls Sunday. Philly is one of the best teams in the league this year. This is actually a good match-up for them as it's small ball on small ball. The teams they struggle with have a lot of size, and the Bulls aren't one of those teams.

Philly is 22-15 on the season, including 14-7 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 9.8 points/game. Philly is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against Central division opponents this season. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. These two trends make for a perfect 11-0 system backing the 76ers. Bet Philly Sunday.

Nelly

Chicago / Philadelphia Over

Chicago has been on a roll offensively, scoring over 104 points per game on average over the last four games. The Bulls are known for great defense but this is a team that has allowed 95 or more points in four of the last ten games and Chicago has posted significantly worse defensive numbers in road games. In terms of points allowed per game these are the two best defensive teams in the league with Philadelphia allowing just 87 points per game and Chicago allowing just over 88 points per game. This was a higher scoring game when these teams met earlier in the season however and this is an incredibly low total that instantly shot upward upon its release. Philadelphia has certainly played some low scoring games this season but the 76ers have struggled in the last several weeks with losses in six of the last eight games. A handful of incredibly low scoring efforts skew the season figures in the small sample size and Chicago’s offense is versatile enough to produce results against a good defense. This game could be at a higher scoring pace than the season totals suggest.

Erin Rynning

Sacramento at Phoenix
Play: Sacramento +5.5

Sacramento travels to Phoenix tonight for a showdown of two of the lesser Western Conference teams. Following the dismissal of head coach Paul Westphal, the Kings have gradually played better under Keith Smart. This really isn’t a surprise as the players genuinely disliked Westphal. In addition, they’ve caught a spark of late with Isaiah Thomas running the point guard position. The Kings have pushed the pace more with Thomas at the helm and have created more ball movement on offense. There’s certainly talent on this basketball team, and one could argue they’ll have the talent edge in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Suns are off a pleasing win over the LA Clipper on ESPN Friday night. They just haven’t proven themselves to be marginally better than even the lower-tier teams in the NBA this season. In fact, the Suns are just 2-5 ATS when favored by five points or more. The Suns were beaten by Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland, New Orleans and Golden State on their home floor so we’ll side with the generous points and the Kings on Sunday night.

WUNDERDOG

Chicago at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia +4

The 76ers are 14-7 at home. After a slump before the All-Star break, the 76ers are 2-1 SU/ATS since coming out with a win at Detroit and thumping the Warriors 105-83 in their last game. Six 76ers average in double figures, and their leading scorer Louis Williams comes off the bench. The 76ers are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 vs. the Eastern Conference and they will be fired-up for this one against the mighty Bulls - a measuring stick to see how good they really are. Philly has excellent defense and guard play to throw at Derrick Rose, which is the key to throwing off the Chicago offense. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite of -0.5 to -4.5. The 76ers have won three straight in this series and consistently cause matchup problems for the Bulls. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Play the 76ers.