Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 6,2011

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

A cold front has hit Miami, and we're not referring to the weather. The Heat enters this afternoon's contest against the Bulls on a 0-3 SU and ATS losing skein while having already taken it on the chops in two previous meetings with Chicago this season. According to the history books things should start warming up on South Beach real soon, starting today in fact, as Miami is 4-1 ATS n this series as a favorite when playing with double revenge-exact. They are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five meetings as a host in this series. With the Bulls 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings against teams on a 0-3 SU and ATS skid, including 0-3 ATS this season, look for the Heat to start living up to their name here today.

Frank Jordan

Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Phoenix Suns +5.5

Oklahoma City is pretty much locked into the four seed in the West as they are three games back in the loss column of the Lakers for third and up four games in the loss column over Denver, so they just want to get hot and healthy heading into the playoffs as they are just 5-5 over their past 10 games. Phoenix's hot play has put just just a half game back for the 8th and final spot has they have won seven of 10 and continue to rise. In this one look for the Suns to give Oklahoma City a run for their money and maybe even pull out a W on the road. Play Phoenix

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Bucks have been able to play Boston tough in recent years because of how solid they are on the defensive end. Milwaukee lost the season's first meeting against the Celtics by only 3 points on the road to improve to 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. The Bucks have especially been strong against the NBA Atlantic division, going 21-3-2 ATS in their last 26 versus these foes. Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season, defeating them by an average score of 100.4 to 93.4. The Bucks enter off a disappointing performance against Phoenix, but this bodes well for us. That's because they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that Boston is 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks.

EZWINNERS

San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The Spurs have won twenty two straight home games at the AT&T Center and they have won three out of the last four meetings with Los Angeles. Tony Parker is back early from an injury and the Spurs are clicking on all cylinders. The Lakers have been playing better since the All Star break, but I'm not convinced that they have fixed all of their problems. The Spurs are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and the Lakers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Lay the points.

MTi Sports

New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Hornets are 0-10 ATS (-9.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a road win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter, 0-7 ATS (-9.3 ppg) as a favorite with at least one day of rest off a win as an away dog in which they trailed by 10+ points and 0-7 ATS (-11.1 ppg) as a favorite when facing an Eastern Conference team they beat as a favorite in their first match-up of the season. Finally, the Hornets are 0-11 ATS (-16.1 ppg) as a favorite after winning the previous matchup at home in which Chris Paul had at least 10 assists. Take Cleveland as the Hornets have a strong tendency to be flat in this spot and that is just what the Cavs need.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Kentucky at Tennessee

Considering the Vols 21-5 ATS mark as a home dog or pick, the fact that they have revenge for a 12-point loss in Lexington earlier in the year and this is their final home game, we're siding with the home team here. Tennessee catches their rival off BB home wins over Florida and Vandy and this would be a huge resume builder for the Vols' own NCAA Tourney hopes. HC Bruce Pearl's team is 36-20 ATS at home revenging a road loss.

Play on: Tennessee

Charlie Scott

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Play: Over 128

I made this Total 135 ! Both teams can score on offense and have good inside-out games. As long as their hitting the outside shot, this is an EASY Over ! Play Over this low total that should be in the 130's minimum.

LARRY NESS

Kentucky @ Tennessee
PICK: Tennessee

The Wildcats are led by three freshman, guards Knight (17.7-4.1-4.1) and Lamb (13.2) plus the 6-8 Jones (17.2-9.1) Maybe that's why the team has been able to win just ONE of seven SEC road games this year, winning only in a HUGE revenge situation at South Carolina (Gamecocks had handed LY's Kentucky its first loss in Columbia). However, the Wildcats have been in every one of their SEC road loses, losing only twice by more than two points (four at Vandy and seven at Georgia). The Vols could sure use a win, as assuming they don't win the SEC tourney, they will be 'sweating' on Selection Sunday. Tennessee should get in but one never knows. The team owns early wins over Missouri St and VCU (excellent mid-major schools) plus has beaten Villanova and Pitt of the powerful Big East. However, the Vols have lost their last two home games and are a very modest 10-7 at home this season. The 6-7 Hopson (17.8) gives all teams matchup problems plus veteran guards Tatum (9.4) and Goins (8.0) are solid. The team has an excellent freshman big man as well in the 6-8 Harris (14.6-7.5) but 6-10 center Williams (7.0-7.6) is currently fighting an injured back. He didn't play Thursday against South Carolina and remains doubtful for Sunday's game against Kentucky. If Williams was 100 percent, I'd be "all over" Tennessee, as I've played against Kentucky (and won) in FOUR of of its six SEC road losses. Here, I'll do so again but for a small play. Take the Vols.

Tom Stryker

Indiana State @ Missouri State
PICK: Missouri State

Even though these two MVC teams split their two regular season meetings with each winning on their homecourt, it will be hard to ignore Missouri State's dominance in this series. The Bears have posted a 30-9 SU and 25-12-2 ATS record in their last 39 battles with the Sycamores and that record demands our respect.

Off a two-point win over Evansville in the first round and yesterday's shocking upset of Wichita State in the semifinals, this will be a tough encore for ISU. In conference tournament final action, the No. 1 seed has posted a reliable 38-9 SU and 28-17-2 ATS record against a No. 3 seed provided this championship is played at a neutral site. Also, underdogs in a conference tournament final are a weak 9-36 SU and 17-26-2 ATS provided they smashed the pointspread by 15 or more in their last tourney battle including just 7-26 SU and 10-21-2 ATS in this role sporting a won/loss percentage of .565 or better.

In the MVC Tournament matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win, Indiana State has fallen on hard times posting a weak 5-12 SU and 6-11 ATS record including just 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in this role priced as an underdog. The Sycamores will be playing in the title game for the first time in 10 years. Matched up against a Bears bunch that is physically and mentally tough, ISU just won't have enough in the end. Take Missouri State.

Tom Freese

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Boston Celtics -7

Milwaukee is 23-37 straight up this year. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 0-4 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games off a straight up loss. Boston is 45-15 straight up this year. The Celtics are 11-1 ATS on Sunday and they are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Celtics are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 games off an ATS loss in their last game.

Black Widow

1* on Tennessee PK

The Tennessee Vols will cap off their regular season with a victory on Senior Day over the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky is just 6-8 on the road this season, and this young team just cannot get over the mental hurdle of trying to win games away from home. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. The Vols are certainly in the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday as they are 7-5 vs. RPI Top 50 teams. Tennessee is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Vols are 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. Take Tennesse as a pick 'em Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

The Grizzlies have been the strongest underdog investment in the NBA this season. We'll get behind them in the underdog role tonight. The Grizzlies are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog. The Grizzlies are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In addition, Dallas is a poor 26-45 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons, only winning these contests by an average of 3.4 points. Take Memphis.

Jack Jones

Phoenix Suns +6

The Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Suns are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They are closing in on the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix and Oklahoma City have played in some intense games of late when they get together. Each of the last 5 meetings in this series has been decided by 5 points or less. I expect another closely-contested game tonight in Oklahoma City.

The Suns are a superb 23-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is winning these games by an average of 11.5 PPG. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Phoenix is also 31-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Bet Phoenix Sunday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Wisconsin +7.5

Plays on road teams listed as an underdog or pick (WISCONSIN) - off a road win by 10 points or more against an opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more, are an impressive 41-15 ATS since 1997. In addition, the Badgers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Wisconsin won the season's first meeting, and I like it to give the Buckeyes all they want and more again here. Take the points.