Matt Fargo
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan
PICK: Northern Illinois +8.5
Eastern Michigan had a chance to win the MAC West championship at home on Thursday but it came up short against rival Central Michigan. The Eagles are now playing a first round game instead of having a bye this weekend and even though the game is at home, this is not a very good spot. That game against the Chippewas was one of the biggest home games in recent memory as the Eagles were going for their first divisional championship since 1995-96 only to fall short. That makes this a letdown just waiting to happen. Eastern Michigan is a solid 11-4 at home this season but two wins came against non-Division I teams while another came against lowly Toledo who is close to not being a Division I team with the way it has played of late. It has been a very inconsistent season as the Eagles simply could put nothing together. Speaking of inconsistencies, that word can describe the Northern Illinois season as well. The Huskies started the season 1-7, went on to win seven of their next eight including seven in a row and then proceeded to lose 10 straight games after that. The good news is that Northern Illinois has won two of its last three games heading into the MAC Tournament so it6 enters with some positive momentum at least. Six of those 10 losses during that 10-game losing skid were by single digits including all four games against MAC West counterparts. Losses are losses but at least they were not really bad losses and that makes this line way off in my opinion. The Eagles have been favored by eight or more points three times in conference action and they are 2-1 ATS in those games. The problem is that two of those games came against Toledo, which finished the regular season 1-15 in the MAC and 4-27 overall. The only other time came against Northern Illinois where they were favored by nine points and won by only six points. This one will be similar and will be closer than what the linesmakers are trying to tell you. 3* Northern Illinois Huskies
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan Wolverines +10
Michigan State can get a share of the Big Ten title with a win, which I think it will, but I just can't justify laying this many points with the Spartans when you consider this is a rivalry game and also when you consider what's taken place over the course of the season. In 8 Big Ten home games, Sparty's largest margin of victory has been just 10 points, and they only did that once. In fact, the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite while the Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan gave Michigan State all it wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 1 points, and I look for the Wolverines to keep this one close again.
Tom Freese
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Portland is 37-27. Shooting guard Brandon Roy scores 22 points a game. Power forward La Marcus Aldridge scores 17.5 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. Guard Andre Miller scores 13.5 points a game. Small forward Martell Webster scores 10.2 points a game. The Blazers score 97.9 points a game and they allow 94.9 points a game. Portland is 1-4 ATS off a win by 10 or more points and they are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. Denver is 41-21 including 22-5 at home. Samll forward Carmelo Anthony scores 28.7 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 20 points a game. Shooting guard J.R Smith scores 15 points a game. Center Nene Hilario scores 13.9 points and and 7.8 rebounds a game. The Nuggets score 107.5 points a game and they allow 102.6 points a game. Denver is 50-22-2 ATS their last 74 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 9-3-2 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON DENVER -
John Ryan
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Play: Wisconsin -3
3* graded play on Wisconsin as they travel to face Illinois set to start at 2:00 EST and this game will be seen on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by more than 3 points. Wisconsin is playing very well and are coming of BB blowout wins defeating Indiana by 32 points and Iowa by 27 points. Wisconsin is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997. Illinois has shot under 40% in 3 of their past 5 games and the stats clearly show that they are a very tired team. Wisconsin is projected to shoot between 40 and 46% and Illinois is just 3-6 ATS this season and 9-27 ATS the past 3 seasons allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play against home teams in March where the line is +3 to -3 that are good passing teams averaging >=16 assists/game on the season. Take Wisconsin.
BEN BURNS
Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks -170
I won with the Hawks when they beat up on Vancouver last time out and, while the price is a little on the steep side, I feel that they've got a great shot at recording another victory this afternoon.
The Hawks have won three of four meetings with the Wings this season. Only one of those was at Chicago. The Hawks were laying -230 for that one and won by a score of 3-0. That makes this afternoon's price start to seem a lot more reasonable.
Including those results, the Hawks are an outstanding 14-4 (+6.6) vs. divisional opponents. On the other hand, the Wings are just 7-9 (-4.5) when matched up against a divisional foe.
Both teams are off a big win in their last game. I already mentioned that the Hawks won 6-3 - the Wings won their game by a score of 5-2. That's noteworthy as Detroit is 5-10 (-9.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 6-10 (-8) after a win by two or more. Conversely, Chicago is 15-7 after a win by two or more goals and 20-9 after scoring four or more.
Looking back further and we find the Hawks at 53-30 (+17.8) the past few seasons after a win by two or more and 64-34 (+24.6) after scoring four or more. They've got the most home wins (tied with Washington) in the league and should be able to build on those stats here. Consider laying the wood.
Jorge Gonzalez
Thunder vs. Kings
Play Kings +3.5
The Sacramento Kings will be hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Kings have quietly started playing some solid basketball winning three of heir last five games. They covered the spread in all five games that includes a home victory over the Utah Jazz. Carl Landry has made the most of his playing time since being traded from the Houston Rockets. Landry has averaged 17.4 points per game and have score over 20 points in his last two games. The Thunder have the New Orleans Hornets on deck in their next game and may be in a let down spot. The Kings will be looking to win their thrid straight game at home. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Lakers +1.18 over ORLANDO
The Magic has one of the league’s best records and they’re considered a contender but buying into that is difficult to be sure. The good news is that they’ve won six of seven and their stock is very high at the moment while the Lakers stock has dropped after two straight losses in Miami and Charlotte. A ton of folks were on the Lakers in those back-to-back games, especially the one in Charlotte in which they were a small 3½-point choice. A ton of tickets were ripped up on the Lakers in those two games and now that their stock has dropped, it’s the perfect time to step in. The Magic are a very beatable team when facing an elite and well-coached team like the one they’ll face here. They shoot way too many threes, which in turn leads to a ton of fast break points when they miss thus, Phil Jackson will focus on this giant flaw. The Magic is seriously worse than they were a year ago and that, too, will be exposed sooner or later. The Lakers were beaten on TNT Thursday and will play its second straight on National TV, this one on ABC at 2:30 PM EST. Aside from getting every call in his favor, Kobe hates to lose in front of the whole nation and will play like a man possessed this afternoon. Play: L.A. Lakers +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ +1.00 over Detroit
The Red Wings are getting way too much credit these days and that’s strictly due to the time of year and the Red Wings pedigree over the last decade or more. Fact is, they’ve struggled all year and a recent win over the Preds doesn’t change much at all. Nashville was playing its third game in four days and that game was at the Joe. The Wings have won just three of its last 11 on the road and now they’ll face the best team in the league, in Chicago, in front of a packed house. The Red Wings goaltending has taken a step backwards recently, as Jimmy Howard has not been as sharp as he was earlier. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are loaded and raring to go. They’ve won six of seven and they’ve scored 11 goals in its last two games including six against the Canucks. They’ve also won 25 of 33 home games and you know for sure this is a game they’re going to be extra jacked up for. Not laying anything on the Blackhawks to win at home in regulation is about as sweet as it gets. Play: Chicago -½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.30 over Carolina
The Canes bubble finally broke last night in Florida and its seven game winning streak has to be considered one of the unlikeliest streaks of the year. Prior to that they put together only four winning streaks the whole season, meaning two wins or more and that was the league’s worst mark. They definitely are playing better and they definitely improved but they were sellers at the deadline and lost a bunch of key players that includes Stephane Yelle, Aaron Ward, and Scott Walker, as well experience behind the blue-line in defensemen Andrew Alberts and Joe Corvo. They’re a different team than they were a week ago and it’s not for the better, it’s for the future. The Canes will play its third game in four days and they’re playing a greatly improved team fighting for its playoff life. They, too, are playing its third game in four days but they’re in a much more favorable spot at home and they’re also the superior squad. The Thrashers remain one of the most undervalued teams in the league and they have no excuse for losing here and likely will not. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
St. Mary's -3
St. Mary's is on the bubble and absolutely must win this game tonight to get into the Big Dance. Portland did beat the Gaels in their last meeting, winning 80-75 at home. That means the Gaels will be looking for some revenge here as well in the WCC Tournament. This team is 24-5 this season, and this is a very generous line Sunday.
This play falls under a system that is 79-37 (68%) since 1997. It tells us to play on neutral court teams as an underdog off a win against a conference rival against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Take St. Mary's.
Karl Garrett
LA Lakers (+3) at ORLANDO
2-0 free play sweep on Saturday with winners on Texas A&M and Louisville.
Now 11-5 my last 16 comp plays.
For Sunday, the G-Man will gladly take any points I can get with the Lakers as they look to get off the 2-game schneid in Orlando.
Orlando has been blazing of late, winners of 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 7 straight up, but the Magic do not seem to match-up well with the defending champs, as the Lake Show erased Orlando in a brief 5-game NBA Finals last June, and they also won the first meeting this season in the City of Angels, 98-92 back in mid-January.
The underdog is on a whopping 10-1-1 spread run the last 12 times these East-West teams have banged the boards.
Like I said, gotta grab the points with Los Angeles here to right their ship.
2♦ LAKERS
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Lakers at ORLANDO (-2')
Scored easily with Saturday's comp play on Duke. For Sunday, take the Magic and lay the couple of points against the Lakers.
Obviously, Orlando has had this game circled on its calendar since last June, when the Lakers won Game 6 on the Magic’s court to clinch the NBA title. The Magic are playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning four in a row and six of their last seven. They’ve averaged 105.7 ppg during this seven-game run while allowing 92.7, and their last five wins have been double-digit destructions. The only one that wasn’t was a 101-95 victory over LeBron and the Cavaliers two Sundays ago.
While the Lakers have been nothing special on the road (17-12 SU, 11-17-1 ATS, including three consecutive SU and ATS losses), the Magic have won 24 of 30 in Orlando, including 11 of 13 since early January. Average margin of victory: 16 points per game. This is also a bad situational spot for L.A., which is playing its third road game in four days (and this one’s an early start).
4♦ ORLANDO
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City at SACRAMENTO (+4)
I'm on a red-hot FREE play run of 62-31-3 with my last 96 comp selections and today I have an NBA winner for you as I grab the points with Sacramento hosting Oklahoma City.
Forget the fact that the Thunder have the better record than the Kings, this series have been dominated by Sacramento, at least at the betting window, for the last couple seasons.
The Kings are 2-1 ATS against Oklahoma City this season, including a 101-98 home win back in November as a two-point underdog. Then on Tuesday the Kings were in Sacramento and fell 113-107 but cashed as a 10-point underdog. They’ve cashed in five of the last seven meetings and two of the last three in Sacramento.
It’s all about matchups in this one and the guards of the Kings, Tyreke Evans and Beno Udrih have the ability to score and dish, while forward Carl Landry is going to make life tough on Thunder star Kevin Durant.
The Kings have won here of their last five and cashed in all five games. Landry really gives this team a force that other teams must account for and will open it up for those guards.
Oklahoma City is on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 1-6 on Sundays and 1-5 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Kings have been cashing, on runs of 8-1-2 against Northwest Division teams, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Grab the points and take advantage of the public loving to bet the Thunder. This is a play on the Kings.
3♦ SACRAMENTO
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma City at SACRAMENTO (+3')
I'm going for my third consecutive win on my NBA complementary selections. In the past four days, I am 4-1 on all of my NBA picks - paid and free.
Sacramento is just 21-41 on the season, but the Kings can be dangerous at Arco Arena. They actually have a winning home mark.
The Kings are in an ambush spot here.
Oklahoma City is off a feel-good 17-point win against the lowly Los Angeles Clippers this past Friday. This is the Thunder's finale of a three-game road trip.
The Thunder is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but they aren't good enough to cover margins on the road if their energy and focus isn't completely there.
Oklahoma City is 5-12 ATS following a victory of more than 10 points.
The teams just met this past Tuesday in Oklahoma City. The Thunder won, but the Kings scored 107 points and shot 54 percent from the floor.
Sacramento averages 97.6 points on the road, compared to putting up 104.3 points per game at home.
The Kings have underrated point guards with Tyreke Evans and Beno Udrih. Sacramento has covered in its last five games.
2♦ KINGS
Derek Mancini
Oklahoma City at SACRAMENTO (+3')
Dangerous spot for the Thunder, who are catching Sacramento in the midst of some nice play over their L5 games. The Kings have covered 5 straight, on the strength of their much improved defensive play (98 ppg, 43% shooting L5), and I don't see that changing. Gamblers swore the loss of Kevin Martin would send this Kings team into the gutter, but the opposite has been true, they've been blowing up!
Oklahoma City has a couple things going against them here, including the revenge and letdown angles. OKC just beat the Kings last Tuesday, and while revenge spots are few and far between in the NBA, this is definately one of them. With the way the Kings are playing lately, I wouldn't want lay this many in a revenge spot at Arco.
Do you really believe the Thunder are motivated tonight in Sacramento? Its the final game of their road trip, against an opponent they just beat. Gamblers have given up on this Kings team, now without Kevin Martin, but Mancini hasn't. In some instances, addition by subtraction works, and clearly Evans and Martin didn't complement each other in the backcourt. The new-look Kings are more motivated, playing much better defense, and at Arco (where they have a better than .500 record). Sacramento plus the points Sunday.
2♦ SACRAMENTO
Chris Jordan
Portland at DENVER (-6)
Playing the Nuggets in the NBA tonight, as I don't think Portland's good fortune carries over to the Mile High City.
Though the Blazers are coming off a successful road trip and easy home win, this is a Nuggets team that not only leads the Northwest Division but is also expected to challenge the Lakers for the Western Conference title.
And why not, Denver swept the season-series against Cleveland, it's defeated the Lakers two out of three games, it beat Boston and Orlando and it is a stellar 14-2 at home since Jan. 5.
Most importantly, for today, the Nuggets have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Blazers in Denver.
These two division rivals have split their last six games both straight-up and at the books, and it's been the home team cashing in with a 5-1 ATS mark.
The straight-up winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, while the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run, and Denver has gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 meetings - including 4-1 versus the books the last five at the Pepsi Center.
I'll lay the chalk with the home team Nuggets in this one.
5♦ NUGGETS
Michael Cannon
Bowling Green (+7) at WESTERN MICHIGAN
I’m on a 3-0 run with my free plays after Maryland and South Florida cash in yesterday!
Take the points with Bowling Green over Western Michigan in the MAC tournament.
Western Michigan has alternated SU and pointspread wins and losses over its last six games and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them come up short against the number again today.
Bowling Green has grabbed the cash in the last two meetings, including a one-point road loss on Feb. 6 as a 7½-point underdog.
Usually the conference tournament matchups that pit the close seeds end up being close games.
I’m banking on that happening again today.
Take the points with Bowling Green.
2♦ BOWLING GREEN