Jeff Benton
Back on the winning track with the free plays Saturday, as Louisville (7♦)crushed Syracuse in the final game ever at Freedom Hall. So I’m now 34-15-1, 24-9-1, 21-8-1, 15-5-1 and 5-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, I’ll head to the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game between Northern Iowa and Wichita State and play it UNDER the total.
First off, Northern Iowa has been an “under” machine all season. The Panthers have played 27 lined games this season, and 21 have stayed below the posted total, including the last four in a row overall and the last five in a row against Missouri Valley rivals. In fact, the under has hit in 17 of the team’s 20 conference games! Stretch it back to last year, and Northern Iowa is on a 23-6 “under” run overall, including 18-3 in conference.
In the first two games of this weekend’s tournament, NIU has prevailed 55-40 and 57-40, and it has held 11 of 12 conference opponents under 60 points, with the last five MVC foes tallying 40, 40, 55, 55 and 52 points. Meanwhile, Wichita has held its last three opponents to 61, 63 and 55 points, and since the Shockers started conference play, they’ve stayed under the total in 13 of 21 games (including a Bracket Buster contest at Utah State that stayed low).
Both squads rank very high nationally in scoring defense (Wichita is 31st, allowing 61.2 ppg; Northern Iowa is second at 54.4 ppg), so it’s no surprise that the under has hit in both meetings between these teams this season (final scores of 60-51 and 59-56). Finally, with both playing their third game in as many days, fatigue likely will be a factor, especially in the second half.
I’ll be surprised if this one gets much over 100 combined points, so take the value and play it low.
4♦ Northern Iowa-Wichita State UNDER
Scott Delaney
L.A. Lakers at Orlando
Another perfect 3-0 sweep, off the 3-0 sweep on Friday. Though I pushed with Temple, I still nailed a pair of 5 Dimers (Premium and Pay After), and another FREE PLAY WINNER on Oklahoma State routing Nebraska.
Today's comp winner is in the NBA, while I do have a 10 Dime winner going, and have my 11th winner out of 12 Pay-After releases going as well. Don't miss out on another profitable day!!!
On to your free pick for today:
In a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, I think this is the right spot for the struggling Lakers, who may seem like lame ducks heading into Orlando, but are the value play in this game.
I know the blowout loss to Charlotte doesn't look good, but it was a game I told you about in this very spot. Charlotte was catching the Lakers in the right spot, as they lost the night before in a hotly contested, overtimg game against Miami.
With a day to rest, I think we're seeing a value in the line. After all, doesn't it seem odd the Magic, who have won four straight and 17 off 22, are laying less than a field goal to a Lakers team that can't seem to get out of its way.
The oddsmakers are begging you to take the Magic, with thoughts the number is too low. But in reality, this is a play for the Lakers.
2♦ LAKERS
LT PROFITS
Lakers/Magic Under 194
The Orlando Magic have been one of the most Under-friendly teams in the NBA, and while the Los Angeles Lakers present a great challenge, the Magic have held the Lake Show in check offensively in recent meetings, so we see no reason why this should not be another Under today.
The Under is 38-25, 60.3 percent in all Orlando games this season, and their defense has been even better here at home, where they are allowing only 93.6 points per game. They have held their last five home opponents below 100 points, including holding the fastest paced team in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors to only 90 points in their last home game on Wednesday.
Also, although the Magic lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals last season and then again in their first meeting this season in Los Angeles, they have still been able to hold LA to below 100 points in the last three meetings, including one game where the Lakers needed overtime to reach 99 points.
Furthermore, the Lakers are not making defense an afterthought thus season like last year, as they added one of the best defenders in the game in Ron Artest, and that combined with more limited minutes for Kobe Bryant give the Lake Show a different look than what the Magic saw in the playoffs. The Lakers were held to 83 points by the stiff Charlotte defense on Friday, and while they will probably top that figure here, we still do not feel they will reach 100.
Finally, the Under is 16-13 in all Lakers road games this year, as they have become more comfortable getting caught up in half-court style games, especially vs. the East.
THE PREZ
Rockets/Pistons Under 196.5
The Detroit Pistons have the second worst offense in the NBA ahead of only the dreadful New Jersey Nets, and even though the Houston Rockets can score, we simply do not feel the Pistons will do enough on their end for this game to go Over what is a very large total for them.
Detroit is averaging just 92.7 points per game overall, and their home games are averaging just a combined 187.0 points this season, nearly 10 points less than this posted total. Sure, the Under is just 16-14 in those games, but that is only because the Pistons usually play to much lower posted totals than this vs. mostly Eastern Conference foes. In fact, the Pistons have had just nine home games this season with posted totals of 194 or higher, and the Under is 7-2 in those contests.
Granted, the Rockets are averaging 105.6 points over their last five games, topping 100 points in four or them. But they are playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning in Minnesota last night, so they probably will not mind getting caught up in the snail's pace that the Pistons prefer to play at. Besides, Houston is only shooting 43.7 percent on the road, so playing at a slower pace than usual will make it much tougher for them to reach 100 points again.
Do not look for much more than 190 points to be scored here tonight.