Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 12

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 13-3 record in Chris Sale's last 16 home starts. Chicago is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125)

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.745; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.844
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+145); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Gomez) 14.730; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.142
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+170); Over

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 15.504; Washington (Gonzalez) 17.091
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-180); Over

Game 957-958: Colorado at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.573; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.773
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Under

Game 959-960: Atlanta at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 14.606; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.922
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 961-962: Miami at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 13.910; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.511
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Under

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.691; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.558
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Under

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 16.407; Detroit (Porcello) 17.917
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Jenkins) 14.367; Boston (Dempster) 15.630
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.038; Kansas City (Santana) 14.987
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Over

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.362; Minnesota (Diamond) 15.262
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.909; Houston (Lyles) 13.064
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 14.348; Seattle (Saunders) 14.847
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.151; White Sox (Sale) 15.175
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Under

Game 979-980: San Diego at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.520; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 16.979
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Over

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves at San Francisco GiantsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Braves take on Tim Lincecum and the Giants in the wrap up of this four-game series at AT&T Park Sunday afternoon they will do so knowing Lincecum is winless in his last three team starts in this series. He is also 1-7 with a 6.78 ERA in his last eight team starts during May, including 0-5 at home. With Tiny Tim struggling to regain his old form, we'll fade him and the Giants here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White SoxSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Three teams qualify for the biggest disappointments in baseball as the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels have all gotten off to horrific starts this season. The Angels are starting to piece some things together and this could be the start of a run that we can continue to ride while the price remains on our side. Los Angeles has won three straight games including the first two in this series and it goes for the sweep behind C.J. Wilson. In his seven starts, five have been quality performances including three of four on the road. He issued a season low two walks last time out so his control issues early on may have ironed themselves out. He has a 2.86 career ERA against the White Sox. Chicago has not played well this season either as it is sitting six games under .500 including two games under .500 at home. This includes a 3-7 home record over the last 10 games. Chris Sale has continued to pitch right where he left off from last year as he has a 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through seven starts. There has been just one blemish on the card which came at Cleveland but if there is an offense that can get to him again, it is the Angels as they are 15-4 in their last 19 road games against left-handed starters.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers -162FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston has lost 27 of 37 to start the season and is only 33-91 in its last 124 overall. The Astros have been a great fade, and that remains the case today with Jordan Lyles on the hill. The Astros are 9-32 in Lyles' last 41 starts and 3-17 in his last 20 starts versus teams that have a winning record. He's 0-3 (0-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.85 versus Texas. The Rangers are 37-17 in the last 54 meetings, including 16-5 in the last 21 in Houston. Take Texas.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +114FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies got a win in Arizona last night with Cliff Lee on the mound, and they wrap up the series in Game 4 tonight. It looks like another favorable matchup on the mound for Philadelphia, with Kendrick going up against McCarthy.
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Kendrick (4-1, 2.45 ERA) was roughed up in his first start of the season, but since then he's been nothing short of dominant in six straight starts. He allowed just a pair of runs on six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Giants his last time out. He's kept the opposition at two runs or fewer in each of his last six starts, and the Phillies have won five of those.
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McCarthy (0-3, 6.75 ERA) has allowed a minimum of three runs and eight hits in all seven of his starts this season, a big reason why he's still looking for his first win. His four starts at home have been worse than his three on the road, and the D'Backs have lost three of those games.
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Jimmy Rollins is starting to swing a hot bat, he was 2-for-3 with a couple RBIs yesterday, and he's 6-for-16 with a home run and three RBIs in his last four games.
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"Obviously, you adjust your swing because you've got to get a good swing first," said Rollins "Now that I'm starting to get there, the confidence comes that I can put on the same swing in any situation."

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kyle Kendrick (4-1, 2.45 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Kendrick is coming off another commanding effort and I look for the 28-year old to carry that momentum over here. Kendrick would go on to give up two runs and six hits over seven frames of work in his team's 6-2 win over the Giants on Tuesday. The veteran is now 4-0 with a extremely respectable 1.71 ERA over his last six starts (he's struck out 32 and walked just eight over his last 42 innings of work). The Phillies' ace will be opposed by Brandon McCarthy (0-3, 6.75 ERA) who gave up three runs off eight hits over 6 1/3's innings of work vs. the Dodgers on Tuesday; he struck out three walked one in the no-decision. The talent discrepancy on the mound, coupled with what I deem to be a very favorable line does indeed warrant a second look at the visitors in this situation.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Cleveland Indians

This Cleveland offense has been impressive, and a big surprise, 6th in baseball in runs scored and tops in slugging. That offense will do well against Detroit righty Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.52 ERA), who has been smacked around and is getting worse with a 9.64 ERA his last three starts. The Tigers are 4-10 in Porcello's last 14 starts. The Indians are on a 10-3 run and 6-2 against a team with a winning record. Righty Zach McAllister (3-3, 2.63 ERA) is on the mound and has been terrific. In his last three starts: 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He has walked 3 Tigers in 17 innings against them with a 2.04 ERA. Play the Indians.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cleveland Indians should arrive at the ballpark today with loads of confidence after knocking off Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Now they've got a chance to win the series and move into a tie for the top spot in the AL Central in the process.
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Surprising Zach McAllister get the call for the Tribe today, and he's coming in on a roll. I don't see the righty staying at his present level, and he's been getting some good fortune in his recent starts. But winning breeds confidence, and the fact that McAllister has enjoyed reasonable success in a short sample against this opponent is a plus. The likely Detroit starters are 12/41 vs. McAllister, but with no long balls.
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Those last numbers contrast favorably with those of Rick Porcello against the Indians. The probable lineup for Cleveland is a combined 43/133 against Porcello, and that includes 7 homers. The Tigers righty has been adequate in his last couple of outings, but that seems to be about as good as it gets for Porcello. He hasn't been as terrible as the bloated ERA suggests, but that's not saying a whole lot. I'm of the belief that Porcello really needs to be pitching for another team. It hasn't worked for him in this locale, and if he's ever going to come close to living up the hype that was there when he arrived, I can't see it happening for Porcello in this uniform.
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Fading the Tigers at home is never easy. They're winning better than two out of three at Comerica for the season to date, and the Tigers are a whopping +55 runs through only 34 games. In other words, this is a legit powerhouse in this ballpark. But Porcello is clearly the weakest link in the rotation, and with the Indians sizzling and throwing a hot pitcher, grabbing decent dog odds is not the worst shot in the world. I'll tab the Indians as the Sunday comp opinion.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For a variety of reasons, we are more than a bit interested at this plus price on the hot Indians. First, Cleveland has won 11 of its last 13 games and beat Detroit ace Justin Verlander on Saturday night. Second, Tigers starter Rick Porcello has been ineffective this season with a 7.52 ERA, and has posted a 6.52 ERA in his last four starts vs. the Tribe. Third, Cleveland starting pitchers have limited opponents to four or fewer runs in 11 of 13 games, posting a 3.21 ERA during that span, while Sunday starter Zach McAllister has allowed just two runs over 14 2-3 innings in back-to-back victories, yielding only five hits over 7 2/3 IP in a 1-0 victory over Oakland on Tuesday, and has allowed three earned runs or less in all six starts. So, we take advantage on this tasty "plus" price for the Tribe.

Big Kat SportsFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White SoxSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago White Sox will look to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels when the two teams meet tonight at US Cellular Field in Chicago. Los Angeles took Game 1 of the series 7-5 and got an excellent pitching performance from Jerome Williams on Saturday, who gave up just 2 runs in 6.2 innings pitched en route to the 3-2 victory. Chris Sale, who has righted the ship a bit since an awful outing against the Indians on April 13th will get the start toady for the White Sox. He is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his last 4 starts, going at least 7 innings in all of them. Sale has also been good at home, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA this season after going 9-3 at US Cellular last year. He will be opposed by CJ Wilson, who gets the call on the mound for the Angels. The lefty has never started a game in Chicago and his numbers this season are a bit deceiving. He does own an excellent 3-1 record with a 3.86 ERA but he is second in the AL in walks with 24 and his WHIP of 1.55 is much higher that any number he has put up throughout his career. The White Sox, despite losing the first two games of the series have actually been good in the spot they are in here tonight against Los Angeles. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games when listed as a favorite of -110 to -150 and have won 7 straight starts against the AL West when Sale is on the mound. The Angels, who have struggled for the second season in a row out of the gate, have had their issues in the situation they are in here on the road in Chicago. They are just 6-13 in their last 19 games on the road and have won just 1 of their last 6 games on the road when listed as an underdog. Pair that with the fact that the White Sox are 13-3 in their last 16 home games that Chris Sale has started as we’ll lay the small price with them tonight at home to get the win.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles DodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are 15-0 as a favorite off a win by 5 or more runs if they led by 3 or more runs after 6 innings and did not win their prior game by 5 or more runs. LA broke a long 8 game losing streak last night and may gather some momentum. As we can see by the grid below, the Dodgers are winning by an average 5-1 score in the scenario above. Miami is a door mat this season and are 2-10 in Day games and 2-10 vs Left handed Pitchers averaging just 1.3 runs per game. The Dodgers will have lefty Chris Capuano making the start and while he has struggled this season, he has had recent success against Miami. In his lone start against them last season he went 8 shut out innings allowing just 2 hits. Today he will oppose Tom Koehler making his first start of the season after seeing time in the bullpen. Koehler will likely be on a pitch count which may not bode well for a Miami team with a 5.16 road bullpen era. Look for the Dodgers to take this one here today.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Harvey's presence on the mound has driven this line sky-high - a little too high, in my opinion.
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The Pirates have already taken two of the first three games in this series, and simply don't belong in this price range against a team the caliber of the Mets.
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Pittsburgh has quietly been getting the job done this season, going 20-16 overall including a 10-9 road record. My clients and I were on the wrong side of yesterday's game, largely due to Francisco Liriano getting his first start of the season for the Buccos. Liriano was actually sharp in his season debut, and I look for Jeanmar Gomez to feed off of that performance on Sunday afternoon.
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Gomez has done an admirable job filling a hole in the Pirates rotation, allowing only six hits and two earned runs in nine innings of work over two starts - both resulting in Pirates victories. It's not as if he's taking a big step up in class against a Mets lineup that has really struggled lately, topping out at three runs over their last five games.
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As I mentioned, Matt Harvey will take the ball for the Mets. He's been outstanding and is coming off the best start of his young career last time out. New York has won six of his first seven starts this season, but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. Note that in his last two outings, the Mets have lost to the Marlins, and narrowly defeated the White Sox by a 1-0 score. Three starts back they needed a ninth inning rally to tie the game, and eventually won 7-3 in extra innings against the Dodgers. Even if Harvey pitches lights out this afternoon, there's no guarantee he'll get enough run support, or that the Mets bullpen will make a lead stand up.
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Speaking of the Mets 'pen, it has posted a collective 4.61 ERA this season. The Pirates have offered a stark contrast in that department, with their relief corps recording a stellar 3.06 ERA.
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Offensively, we're talking about two teams heading in opposite directions as well. Pittsburgh is hitting .291 as a team and averaging more than five runs per nine innings over its last five games. The Mets have hit .226 while producing just north of two runs per nine innings over that same stretch.

Bob Balfe

Spurs -1 over Warriors

Curry is a game time decision, but with a sprained ankle its tough to play the game and he can end up doing more harm to himself as a young player. True stand up organizations do not push their super star players and look at their long term investment. Either way the Spurs have all the experience and are ready to put a choke hold on this series. The Warriors need to be 100 percent to have a chance and if not I just don't like their chances. I don't think this will be a blowout, but in the end I like the veteran team to get it done. Take the Spurs.

A's -125 over Mariners

The A's have been struggling big time over the last week and need to get a win to rid themselves of this losing streak. Tom Milone is a strikeout pitcher with great control which will keep Mariners players off base limiting themselves runs. Saunders doesn't have much power and what you will see today is the A's making a lot of contact and putting the ball in play. Look for Oakland to find their bats today. Take the A's

Greg Shaker

Brewers / Reds Over 8.5

Just very brief thoughts here on a play that I have 9.5 Runs on. Despite the cool weather in Cincy we do have favorable weather at this Hitters Park called Great American. Both Pitchers no on their best behavior lately, both teams capable of Big Innings and in case you have not noticed the Reds are playing to a lot of OVERS, punishing righthanded pitching to the tune of almost 7 per 9 over their last 10, and Milwaukee doing the same at just over 5 1/4. Most likely a resting player or two but not enough to take me off this one.