Will Rogers
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
Don't look now but the Minnesota Twins are the hottest hitting team in baseball. The Twins have been on an offensive surge the past week, scoring 40 runs in their last five games. They host Baltimore today, in a rubber match of their three game series with the Orioles.
Here are my keys to the game:
1: Pitching - Scott Diamond (3-2, 3.03 ERA) has been dealing all season long, and he has back-to-back wins against high powered offensive teams, defeating the Red Sox in Boston and the Tigers in Detroit. He allowed just two runs on seven hits over 13 innings in those two starts.
The Orioles will send Wei-Yin Chen to to the mound, and he hasn't missed a lot of bats lately. He's given up seven runs on 17 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts.
2: Hitting - Joe Mauer is batting .333 on the season, but he's riding a 10 game hitting streak, and he's 6-for-9 so far in the first two games of this series versus the Orioles.
X-Factor - The Twins haven't won a series versus Baltimore since 2009, and they are in a good spot to do so today. They will want to pull out all the stops.
Jimmy Boyd
Angels/White Sox OVER 7.5
The total on this game is set far too low considering the way these teams matchup today. The Angels have a .282 batting average against left handed starters and they are averaging almost 5 runs per game. The White Sox are batting .260 against lefties and averaging 4.5 runs per game. While CJ Wilson and Chris Sale have been solid this season, there is no chance either of these guys will throw a shutout.
While the Angels record is nowhere near most people thought it would be at this point in the season it has not been from a lack of scoring runs. The Angels are hitting well and scoring runs. They are losing because of poor pitching. Opponents are averaging over 5 runs per game against them. Both of these teams have gone over the total in two of their last three games and that trend towards the over should continue today.
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies +150
The Colorado Rockies are showing excellent value Sunday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. After getting shut out in each of their first two games of this series, the Rockies are more hungry for a win in Game 3 than at any other point this season to date.
Jorge De La Rosa is getting no respect from oddsmakers despite pitching well to this point. De La Rosa is 3-3 with a 3.52 ERA in seven starts this season. He has allowed exactly three earned runs in each of his last three starts against the Cardinals.
A big reason as to why I'm on the Rockies today is the fact that Jamie Garcia has been terrible in his career against Colorado. The left-hander is 0-2 with an 11.86 ERA and 2.562 WHIP in three career starts against the Rockies. The Cardinals are 0-3 in those games having never won. Bet the Rockies Sunday.
Freddy Wills
Oakland A's -125
Tommy Milone has posted a 0.92 WHIP and 1.74 ERA over his last three starts without a win to show for it, but I think that changes on Sunday when he faces the Mariners who he has posted a 2.63 ERA against in 6 career starts. Milone has impressive numbers with 8.02 K/9 and 1.17 BB/9 he throws 4 different pitches and mixes them well. He throws his first pitch for a strike 70% of the time and that will do him good against the Mariners who are 28th in swing %. He's really everything that the opposing pitcher is not and we are getting tremendous value because the stat line shows Joe Saunders is an excellent pitcher at home, but I feel that's more of a coincidence. The A's have hit lefties well in fact they are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring more than 2 runs more per 9 innings overall and on the road than the Mariners are overall or at home. They also are backed by a bullpen that's about a run better in ERA no matter how you split it, but the real advantage for the A's today is because of Tommy Milone.
Joe Saunders has not pitched well he's one of a few pitchers who are walking more guys than they are striking out. That's due to the fact that he's 77th among starting pitchers in 1st strike % and he's 110th in swinging strike %. That does not bode well against the A's who are very patient in fact they are the 2nd most patient team and they don't swing at much outside the zone. I can see a lot of counts starting 1-0 today and that's a huge advantage for the Athletics hitters whose active line up has really good numbers against Saunders. Saunders also will be facing the A's for the second time this year. That has happened twice already this year for Saunders and his second start has not gone well as he's posted a 13.96 ERA in the second time facing a team this year.
Notable Hot Starters:
Chris Sale (3-0, 21.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.11 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (3-0, 23 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 1.57 ERA)
Matt Harvey (2-1, 20.1, 0.74 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Ryan Dempster (2-1, 19 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Ervin Santana (2-1, 20 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Scott Diamond (2-1, 19.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Scott Feldman (3-0, 22.2 IP, 0.71 WHIP, 1.99 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.25 ERA)
Cold Starter Of The Day:
With just three pitchers with ERA's over 6 over their last three starts there really is not much selection here, but I would go with Wily Peralta at +145 over the Reds. The Reds have only faced him once and he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings while the Brewers will face Bronson Arroyo who they have seen many times before.
Notable Cold Starters:
Rick Procello (2-1, 14 IP, 1.57 WHIP, 9.64 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 19 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 8.05 ERA)
Cajun Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
2-Star Play ON any MLB home favorite coming off a home win scoring ten or more runs versus an opponent coming off a road underdog loss scoring five or more runs committing one error in that contest. This system has a record of 82-36 SU for a profit of +2663 Units. Play ON: Cincinnati Reds
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +122 over N.Y. RANGERS
How can one explain the Rangers effort in Washington on Friday night? Here’s a team that was just coming off two home wins to tie the series and had momentum and everything else going for them in Game 5, only to come up with the most lame effort in this year’s playoffs. New York scored in the games’ first minute and didn’t come close to scoring the rest of the way in a 2-1 OT loss. An effort like that by the Rangers in the most important game of the series is something we just can’t ignore.
Washington now has a chance to advance and there are plenty of signs that it could happen. First, the Caps scored three times in both games in New York, meaning the Rangers needed four and although they got it, it isn’t likely to happen again. Rick Nash and Brad Richards both have one point through five games, Richards with a goal and Nash with an assist. The Rangers have just two power-play goals in 21 attempts while the Caps have three PP goals in just 14 attempts in this series and that’s a key. The Rangers have avoided the box and if the calls are equal today, and it appears as though the refs have been instructed to make only blatant calls in elimination games, than the Caps chances increase. Braden Holtby has been just as good as Henrik Lundqvist and in a series that has seen every game but one decided by one goal, the Caps taking back a tag offers up more value than the Rangers spotting one. Good night Blue Shirts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado/ST. LOUIS Under 7½
After a solid run in MLB over the past couple of weeks, we went 0-2 yesterday and will slow down a little today because big runs like that don’t last long. With that, we’ll play one total today. Last week we mentioned the effects of barometric pressure on the flight of the baseball and how it can affect the total. A rising barometer means the air is getting “heavier” and a falling barometer means the air is getting lighter. A heavy pressure system has moved into the Midwest and East suggesting there could be quite a few unders today and we’re going to step into this one. The Rockies have not scored a run in two days. Over that span they have three hits. Prior to that, the Rocks played three games at Coors Field against the Yankees and scored five times in those three games. Over the past six games, Colorado has scored two runs or fewer in all of them and things are going to be just as difficult here against Jaime Garcia. Garcia’s 65% groundball rate leads the majors. His 14% line-drive rate is in the top five in the majors. When hitters make contact off this guy, it’s either on the ground or a lazy infield fly. His ability to locate his pitches to near perfection continues to be a talent you can rely on.
Jorge De La Rosa is much more likely to allow some runs than Garcia but again, the barometric pressure is rising in St. Louis and De La Rosa has not allowed a single earned run in three of his last five starts. This is a guy that shut out both Arizona and the Yanks in two home games over his last four starts. The normal red flags apply for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, but De la Rosa's pre-injury skills are at least intriguing and he appears to be getting stronger with each passing week. Sunday’s are often days that managers give a couple of everyday players a day off. That could apply here but even if it doesn’t, the Rockies are seeing BB’s and even the Cardinals have only scored three times in each of the last two games.
Harry Bondi
ATLANTA (-110) over San Francisco
Today's San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum continues to be unable to find the form that made him one of baseballs best pitchers. Lincecum has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last two outings including giving up five runs in seven innings in his last start against the Phillies last Tuesday. The Giants have also lost the last four starts he has made against the Braves. Take Atlanta over the Giants and their former Cy Young winner as your FREE WINNER on Sunday.
Joe Gavazzi
Golden State +2
Backing what may be the series winner at home/loss trailing 1 game to 2 in the series. In the previous game, a 103-92 San Antonio win, we won with the Spurs at +2- when the linemaker came with an 11 point adjustment from Game #1. Now we are back on a value side taking Golden State in the positive situation at the value price. After 2 games, the Warriors were outshooting the Spurs, 48%-41%. All that changed in Game #3 with a San Antonio edge in that category of 51%-39%. The reason for limiting the rating is the clear concern over the left ankle of the Warrior's high scoring guard Curry. Though he may be limited by the injury, hard to see him not making post! Let's try the value home dog off the home loss trailing in the series.