Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday May, 13

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks and Giants conclude a three game series in Phoenix where Joe Saunders matches serves with Barry Zito Sunday afternoon. Zito toes the slab in struggling current form with 10 strikeouts and 16 walks in his last four starts while having dropped eight of his last eleven road team starts. On the flip side Saunders has cashed in four of his last five home team starts during the month of May. With no apparent relief in sight, look for ZIto's woes to continue here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona applies to a solid 15-1 Angle as they are 15-1 as a home favorite of -140 or more if the lost their starters last 2 starts. Arizona has won 4 of 5 on Sunday and 4 of here vs the Giants already this season. The Giants have dropped 8 of 12 this month and have a terrible 5.32 road bullpen era. Barry Zito starts for them today and he is 3-8 with a 5.27 era vs Arizona. He takes on J. Saunders who has pitched well in his last 32 home starts vs the Giants going 14 innings allowing just 4 runs. With the Giants averaging just 2.7 runs per game the past week we will back Arizona here today.

Teddy Covers

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Washington Nationals

Since taking two out of three against the Marlins in their first series of the season, the Reds have played only four series against opponents with winning records. They’ve lost all four series. In fact, after last night’s home loss to the Nats, Dusty Baker’s squad is on a 3-9 run against above .500 foes. Their previous six series have all come against sub .500 teams, going 11-6 in those games while allowing the betting markets to embrace Cinci as a team finally living up to their potential. I’m just not buying that argument, or the concept of Cincinnati as the favorite in this ballgame.

The Nationals held an ‘air out the laundry’ team meeting following their three game skid earlier in the week, and they’ve responded with back-2-back-2-back road wins. Washington starter Edwin Jackson threw a complete game two hitter against the Reds last month, picking up right where he left off last year when he threw seven innings of eight strikeout, two run ball against Cinci in his first career start against them. Coming off seven innings of three hit ball at Pittsburgh in his last start, the price is right to support Jackson and the first place Nats at this underdog price. Take the Nationals

Ben Burns

Nationals @ Reds
PICK: Under 8.5

Yesterday's game resulted in a pitcher's duel. Washington won 2-1. This one could also easily prove low-scoring.

Arroyo has been very sharp to start the season. Through six starts, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He has 27 Ks to just four walks. Each of his last three starts have finished below the total and Arroyo has a 2.55 ERA during that stretch. Last time out, he had 9Ks with only one walk, allowing a single run through 6 2/3 innings.

Arroyo didn't factor in the decision last month at Washington. However, he was dominant in that game. He allowed a mere three hits through 7 1/3 shutout innings. The final score was 2-1. Overall, the "under" is 6-2-2 (or 6-3-1) in Arroyo's 10 career starts vs. Washington. In five of those 10 starts, Arroyo allowed ZERO runs, averaging 7 2/3 innings in those particular five outings.

Jackson has also fared very well against today's opponent. In fact, he's got a 1.69 ERA and 0.813 WHIP in two starts vs. the Reds. When he faced them earlier this season, he tossed a complete game allowing just one run only two hits. He had nine K's with just one walk.

In three road starts this season, Jackson has a 2.41 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. He has a 2.75 ERA his last three starts overall. Last time out, he allowed two runs, on three hits, through seven innings.

Both starters are backed by very capable bullpens. Neither team has hit well on the season. Consider the Under.

Dave Price

LA Angels +119

The Halos are showing value at this price with ace Jered Weaver on the bump. He's 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA on the season and 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Angels are 19-7 in Weaver's last 26 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 starts vs. the Rangers. Take the Angels.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -1.5 +104

The Tigers get the call on the run line as our free play for Sunday with ace Justin Verlander getting the ball. Since the beginning of last season, the Tigers are 20-3 when Verlander get the start as a favorite of -125 to -175, including a perfect 13-0 in road games in this situation. The Tigers have won these 13 games by an average score of 5.0 to 2.2. Off back-to-back losses, the Tigers will be hungry to earn a split in the finale of this 4-game series. They'll also be very confident with the reigning AL MVP on the hill. Take the Tigers on the run line.

Dave Cokin

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Don't get scared off AJ Burnett because of his high ERA. That's all from one nightmarish start. He's been strong in the other three. Wandy Rodriguez is an okay lefty, but I like Burnett to outpitch him here and I'll take the Pirates today.

Jim Feist

Mariners vs Yankees
Pick: Over

Andy Pettitte makes his return to baseball here on Sunday. And Yankee fans will look to the veteran southpaw to help them sweep the Mariners. While Pettitte is likely destined for Monument Park, right now he's still toeing the rubber for the Yankees. The 40-year old Pettitte was 0-2 in the minors with a decent ERA of 3.71 ERA. Another veteran will oppose the Yankees here on Sunday in Kevin Millwood. 37-year old Millwood is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA this season and lofty 1.72 WHIP. And today he pitches in one of the best hitter parks in baseball. I like the OVER here on Sunday. Two aging pitchers, both with their better days long behind them. The ball should be flying out of Yankee stadium on Sunday. Take the OVER.

Nick Parsons

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers

5-0, 6'7” fireballer Jared Weaver comes to Texas on national TV making his second start following his no-hitter against the Twins on May 2nd. Texas is responding with converted reliever Neftali Feliz making his 5th career start and 5th of the season. Feliz is coming off 32 & 40 save seasons, but after acquiring closer Joe Nathan, the 23 year old is far more valuable long term as a starter. The transition has been a slow process throughout spring training, but now that he is getting into a starting routine he has put up impressive numbers, including 8 K's over six innings in a 10-3 W over Baltimore. Aside from Weaver's “No-No”, to say the Angels have been disappointing this season is an understatement. Free agent Albert Pujols has been a dud with as the former triple crown contender has only one homer and 11 RBI this season along with a .192 average has completely fallen short of all expectations. The Angels have not exactly been helping him out either, hitting .220 as a team on the road this season. We will back the #1 Texas squad, who have been tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .338 in their last five and .294 in their last ten. After posting quality outings by Weaver we are expecting him to have his hands full with the Texas linup in his own park. Take the Rangers.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles -111 over PHOENIX

Phoenix is very methodical and businesslike in its approach to playing under Dave Tippett. The players know their roles and play it to near perfection. They're comfortable with it and they're committed to it. But let’s call a spade a spade and acknowledge that the Coyotes have won their first two series because of goaltender Mike Smith. You can steal a game and like he’s proven, you can even steal a series or two. However, you simply can’t keep winning by being outplayed every game. Furthermore, the Kings won’t get frustrated by a hot goaltender. They’re more used to playing 1-0 and 2-1 games than any team in the league. Let’s also not forget that they just knocked off Vancouver and St. Louis, the top two seeds in nine games and they did it by outplaying, outhitting and outworking both clubs. They will not get outworked in this series and they certainly won’t get outplayed either. L.A has a plethora of talent that the Coyotes cannot compete with on an equal level. They also have outstanding goaltending with Jonathan Quick. When the Coyotes beat Chicago and Nashville it was because Crawford and Rinne were average. Quick will not be. He’s been Mike Smith’s equal all year and he’s going to face a lot less shots than Smith. The Coyotes might steal a game or two but when we can get the vastly superior Kings at a cheap price, a team that has yet to lose on the road in these playoffs, you can pencil us in. Play: Los Angeles -111 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Indiana +8½ over MIAMI

Miami won the regular-season series 3-1 but the Pacers got better each time, losing by 35, losing by 15, losing by two in overtime on a buzzer-beater by Dwyane Wade, and finally winning by 15. Don’t ignore the clear adjustments game by game; it’s significant. The Pacers' defense has been rock solid from the get-go, the offense picked up dramatically after the All-Star break and now the Pacers are about to give the Heat a real run for their money. Indiana doesn’t have the star power of Miami. What they do have is five starters that all must be guarded. Plus, Miami can't match up with the 7-foot-2 (Roy Hibbert) post threat in the middle and on defense he’s a huge factor. We don’t need to analyze the Heat. Everyone knows they’re outstanding and the team to beat. We’re suggesting you don’t sell the Pacers short. Indy has the length on the wings to match up with Miami, the firepower in the starting lineup to keep pace, a strong bench and a big man that the Heat can't handle one-on-one. We’re not even asking the Pacers to win either. You’ll be paying a premium to wager on the Heat in this game by spotting a somewhat ludicrous 8½-points and that rarely comes recommended. Play: Indiana +8½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Series: Indiana +688 over MIAMI

For all the reasons mentioned above and because of the price, the Pacers are more than worthy of a small wager in this series. They have a chance to beat Miami because the opportunity is here for the Pacers to cut their rotation further and ride their best players dramatically more than in the regular season. Play: Indiana +688 to win series (Risking 1 unit).

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +130 over MIAMI

Carlos Zambrano tossed a complete game three-hit shutout against the Astros on Monday night. He’s gone 16 straight innings without allowing a run and his ERA is down to 1.98 after six starts. His skills, or lack thereof are less inspiring and that allows us to take back a sweet price with Jonathan Niese and the Mets. Zambrano’s velocity is down to a fastball that tops off at 88.9 MPH. His groundball rate of 50% is something he’s not accomplished in seven years. A good hitting team is going to expose him as an average pitcher very soon. Zambrano will have value in flashes but once his 24% hit rate and 78% strand rate normalize his ERA will be lucky to stay below 4.00. Carlos Zambrano is not a 1.98 ERA pitcher, not even close. By the same token, Niese is far better than his 4.01 ERA suggests. He walks few, he strikes out many, he has a 53% groundball rate and he’s very close to emerging as one of the best lefties in the game. What we have here is two pitchers that will see corrections in their respective numbers with Zambrano’s getting worse and Niese’s improving. This is a classic buy low and sell high opportunity. Play: N.Y. Mets +130 (Risking 2 units). Colorado +142 over LOS ANGELES Pinnacle This one comes down to pure and simple math. Ted Lilly is putting up Sandy Koufax like numbers through his first five starts and it cannot last. Lilly has allowed five earned runs total in five starts, covering 32 innings. What makes that even more remarkable is a poor K/BB ratio of 11BB/21 k’s and a fly-ball bias profile. Lilly is a consistent 10-12 game winner but he’s not an elite pitcher and therefore instantly becomes a prime fade candidate. Play: Colorado +142 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +120 over CINCINNATI

We’ll continue to fade pitchers that are putting up numbers that don’t match their skills and Bronson Arroyo fits right in. Arroyo relies on his pinpoint control and is pretty much pitching to contact these days. His strikeout rate has dropped for three straight years, which means his success is in the hands of his defense. Arroyo’s fly-ball rate has also risen every year for three seasons and this season we see a 36%/23%/41% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate, which does not add up to a 2.75 ERA. Arroyo has magically kept his ERA under three with an unsustainable 83% strand rate. His charmed life is about to end anytime now. Edwin Jackson is loving his new surroundings and has put up great numbers so far. The difference between he and Arroyo is that Jackson has the skills to support his 3.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has 34 k’s and just nine walks in 39 frames. He has a strong groundball profile to go along with a normal strand rate. Jackson has just one win in six starts and if there’s such a thing as numbers evening out over time and justice being served, Jackson will win his second game while Arroyo’s lack of skills will catch up to him. Play: Washington +120 (Risking 2 units).

MATT RIVERS

As for your Sunday comp play winner, going to back the Pacers-Heat game to combine to go over the posted total.

The teams did not have a pronounced over/under trend in their regular season meetings, as they played four times, two of the games going over and two of the games holding under, but if you backtrack things a bit further, five of the past eight series meetings have played on the high side.

Indiana comes into this one having played their last pair of playoff games over the total, and dating back to the regular season, six of their last ten games overall have played over the total.

Miami has been pretty much the opposite, as eight of their last ten games dating back to the regular season have stayed under the posted price. Yes, Miami's defense is quite suffocating, but I get the feeling that the extra days off both teams have enjoyed will have them all set to get off to a fast start and put them on pace for just enough scoring to get them over the total in Game One of their best-of-seven set.

Pacers-Heat over on Sunday.

1♦ OVER

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the L.A. Angels to beat the Texas Rangers.

This is a good pitching matchup, but the edge goes to the Angels. They are starting Jered Weaver. He has an ERA of 1.60 and a WHIP of 0.789. In his last three starts, his ERA dips to 0.43. In 21 innings, he has given up 10 hits and one earned run.

Neftali Feliz gets the start for Texas and his ERA is a respectable 3.38 with a WHIP of 1.156.

After a horrible start for the Angels, they have won five of their last seven games.

The Rangers, who might be one of the best teams in the majors, have split their last four games.

With Weaver on the mound, it will not take too much offense for the Angels to get the win.

Take the Angels.

2♦ ANGELS