SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Boston (8-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The red-hot Magic, aiming for their second straight trip to the NBA Finals, put their perfect playoff mark on the line when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the upset-minded Celtics at Amway Arena.
Orlando, which at 59-23 had the league’s second-best record behind Cleveland in the regular season, swept Charlotte in the first round, then pounded No. 3 seed Atlanta in four games in the second round. The Magic ripped the Hawks by 43, 14, 30 and 14 points again, and the 101-point margin of victory was the largest ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Orlando finished off the Hawks with Monday’s 98-84 road win as a six-point favorite. Vince Carter led the Game 4 attack with 22 points, and he was one of five Magic players to score in double figures.
Stan Van Gundy’s troops are riding a 14-game winning streak dating to the regular season (13-1 ATS), including 10 double-digit routs and an average victory margin of 16.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 42-8 SU, with 28 of those wins being by double figures. Point guard Jameer Nelson (20.5 ppg) has led the Magic in scoring during the postseason, and Dwight Howard is averaging a double-double of 15.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs.
Boston took out Miami in five games in the first round, then pulled off the upset of No. 1 overall seed Cleveland in six games. The Celtics trailed 2-1 against the Cavaliers, then won the next three games, clinching the series with Thursday’s 94-85 home win as a 1½-point chalk night. Kevin Garnett paced the Game 6 victory with 22 points and 12 rebounds, and Rajon Rondo had 21 points and 12 assists.
Rondo leads a balanced Celtics squad in averaging 18 ppg in the playoffs, with Garnett (17.6), Ray Allen (17.4) and Paul Pierce (16.3) right behind. Rondo is also leading the league in assists in the postseason (11.1 per game).
Orlando took three of four meetings with Boston this season (2-2 ATS) and has won five of the last six overall (4-2 ATS). These teams haven’t faced off since Feb. 7, when the Magic notched a 96-89 road win as a three-point underdog. Orlando also knocked out the Celts in the second round last year, rallying from a 3-2 series deficit and finishing it off with a 101-82 blowout in Game 7 in Beantown as a 2½-point pup.
Going back to Game 7 last year, the visitor and underdog have cashed in five straight in this rivalry, and Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to Amway Arena. The SU winner has cashed in all 11 of the Celts’ playoff contests this season and in 21 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 16 outings.
Boston is 29-17 on the highway (24-21-1 ATS), going 3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including blowout wins over Cleveland in Game 2 (104-86) and Game 5 (120-88). The C’s are averaging 98.5 ppg (47.8 percent shooting) away from Boston, while giving up 94.3 ppg (44.3 percent shooting).
Orlando is 38-7 at home (27-17-1 ATS) this season, including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs, outscoring visitors by more than 12 ppg on the year (105.3-92.9), while shooting 48.4 percent and allowing 43.4 percent shooting. The Magic have won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their last 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 8-3 ATS mark in the postseason (3-0 last three), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 12-4-1 as a playoff pup and 16-7 when catching five to 10½ points. However, Boston has gone 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine Sunday starts and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 outings coming off a SU win.
The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-7-1 overall (13-1 last 14), 7-1-1 at home, 23-5-1 as a favorite, 7-0 as a playoff chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 17-5 after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 following a SU win. Also, in last year’s six-game upset of the Cavaliers in the conference finals, Orlando went 5-1 ATS.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 12-5-2 at home, 20-5-1 on Sunday, 33-16-2 as a favorite and 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk. That said, in last year’s conference finals against Cleveland, the over hit in five of the six games.
Boston is on a 7-2 “under” roll in conference finals contests, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 4-1 on the highway (all in the playoffs), 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 8-3 as an underdog and 22-10-1 after a two-day break.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight clashes overall, including three of four this season. Also, the under is on a 9-3 tear between these two in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-16) at Cincinnati (20-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central square off for the rubber match of a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as the Cardinals’ Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) tries to snap a personal three-game losing skid when he matches up against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36)
After dropping a 4-3 decision on Friday, Cincinnati bounced back to score a 4-3 win Saturday, gunning down the final out at home plate. The Cardinals remain just 3-8 in their last 11 games (3-5 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-5 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-10 against winning teams and 1-6 versus right-handed starters, but St. Louis has won four straight on Sunday and six of eight in the third game of a series.
Cincinnati was on a five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – before Friday’s 4-3 loss. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on a 6-3 run at home but they are just 2-3 at home against the Cardinals this season.
This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the eight contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-3 roll against Cincinnati.
Penny has lost three straight games despite a 2.84 ERA, including Tuesday when he gave up four runs (none earned) over seven innings in a 6-3 loss to the Astros. On the road, Penny is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in four outings and he’s already seen the Reds twice this season, with the Cards losing both, 2-1 on April 8 and 3-2 on April 30. In his career, Penny is 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts against the Reds, and at Great American Ballpark he is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in six starts, allowing eight runs in 40 innings of work.
Arroyo is 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three outings, but at home he is just 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. He shut down the Pirates on Monday, giving up one run on five hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory. He also dominated the Cardinals on April 8, giving up one run on four hits in eight innings of work, with Cincinnati winning, 2-1. Arroyo is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) against the Cardinals. Also, the Reds are 8-1 in Arroyo’s last nine starts against the N.L. Central, but they’ve lost 13 of his last 16 Sunday starts.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 24-10-1 overall, 10-2 on the road, 13-4-1 within the division, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2 against teams with a winning record. Also, the under is 6-1 in Penny’s seven starts this season.
Cincinnati has topped the total in five of nine against right-handed starters at home, but the “under” is 4-1-1 in the Reds’ last six against division foes, 31-14-7 in their last 52 against winning teams and 16-5-6 in their last 27 on Sunday. And with Arroyo on the hill, the under is on surges of 16-6-4 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 18-6-4 against the N.L. Central and 23-5-2 when he’s coming off five days of rest.
Finally, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six series meetings, but 10 of the last 15 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-14) at N.Y. Yankees (24-12)
The Yankees’ Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86) gets his second start of the season as he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium in the finale of a three-game series against the Twins, who will hand the ball to Nick Blackburn (3-1, 4.76).
New York has now beaten the Twins 12 straight times after Andy Pettitte pitched the Bronx Bombers to a 7-1 victory Saturday. Before Friday’s 8-4 series-opening win, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 100-43 overall, 50-11 at Yankee Stadium (12-2 this year), 39-14 against the A.L. Central, 51-24 on Sunday and 45-10 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Even with the first two losses in this series, Minnesota has still won seven of 12 and is 39-21 in its last 60 overall. However, the Twins have lost 44 of 64 against the A.L. East.
The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 12 straight in this lopsided rivalry. In fact, New York has won 52 of the last 68 meetings overall and 29 of the last 34 in the Bronx.
Blackburn was dominant in his last start a week ago, scattering four hits in seven shutout innings en route to a 6-0 victory. However, Blackburn has been knocked around on the road this year, going 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA, giving up 14 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings.
Minnesota is unbeaten in Blackburn’s last four starts overall, but they’re 8-19 in his last 27 road outings, 2-13 in his last 15 roadies against winning teams and 4-9 in his last 13 against the A.L. East. Also, the Twins have lost four straight times with Blackburn facing the Yankees, including a 4-3, 12-inning defeat in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS. Including that contest, Blackburn is 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against New York.
Mitre made his first start of the season on Monday and took the loss in a 5-4 defeat in Detroit, giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Mitre has never faced the Twins in his career.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 21-5-2 against the A.L. East, 36-16-1 on Sunday, 18-7-1 when Blackburn starts on the road, 10-2 when Blackburn pitches on Sunday and 5-0-1 when Blackburn faces A.L. East teams. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in five of six overall (all against the A.L. Central), but the over is 5-3 in their last eight home games and 6-2 in their last eight Sunday contests.
Finally, the under is 30-12-4 in the last 46 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays May 16 2010 1:05PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Colby Lewis and the Rangers wrap up a three game visit to Toronto when they face Brandon Morrow and the Blue Jays this afternoon. Lewis enters today's game in commanding KW form with seven walks against 31 strikeouts in his last four starts while Morrow is in struggling form with an 11.25 ERA in his last two starts. Back the better arm here today.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
3* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on San Diego set to start at 4:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-15 making 24.8 units since 2004. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts and has given up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Dodgers are 34-15 (+17.2 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 13-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line off 3 straight wins against division rivals over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers.
Craig Trapp
Celtics vs. Magic
Play: Under 189.5
This one has under all over it! In fact the last 8 games these two have played under in 7 games head to head. In those 8 games the most scored in any game is 190! The long rest for ORL should mean rusty shooting for them and even worse for them they have the best defensive team in the league. Match ups are everything in the NBA and these two are very equal. ORL will play thru Howard and BOS will play thru KG which should mean a slow down game and a very easy Under winner.
BIG AL
Athletics @ Angels
PICK: Over 8.5
These two teams combined for 15 runs last night, a 12-3 Angels win, and I look for another high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon. This will be Trevor Cahill's fourth start of the season, while his mound opponent, Joel Pineiro, will be making his eighth start. Neither pitcher is in particularly good form: Cahill's ERA this year is 4.59, with a mediocre WHIP of 1.40, while Pineiro's ERA over his last three starts is an awful 6.32, with a 1.78 WHIP. And, away from pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum, Cahill's ERA balloons to 6.75! Additionally, Pineiro has not had much success vs. the A's (he's lost seven of his last eight), and his career ERA in his starts vs. Oakland is 4.87, with a WHIP of 1.53. Look this game to sail 'over' the total.
SEAN MURPHY
Blackhawks @ Sharks
PICK: Over
This was a high scoring series during the regular season with three of four games totaling at least six goals in regulation time, and I expect more of the same when the Western Conference final gets underway on Sunday afternoon.
With the exception of Games 1 and 5 against Vancouver last round, the Blackhawks have been on fire offensively, scoring at least four goals in six of their last eight contests. They've fired at least 30 shots on goal in each of their last nine games, dating all the way back to Game 4 of their opening round series against Nashville.
San Jose's offensive production dropped off considerably in Games 4 and 5 against Detroit, as they potted only three goals. However, I'm not going to knock them as they had scored 12 goals in the first three games of that series, and 22 goals over a five-game stretch. This is a potent offensive team that averages over 3.4 goals per game at home this season.
I'm not sold on either team's goaltending situation. Sure, Blackhawks netminder Antti Niemi has been much better in the playoffs than he was in the regular season, but that's not saying much. He has been fairly inconsistent, allowing at least three goals in six of his last 10 games here in the postseason.
Evgeni Nabokov played well in the Sharks series-clinching win over the Red Wings, but for the most part struggled in that series, allowing at least three goals in four of the five games. He allowed four goals in each of his team's three losses against the Blackhawks during the regular season.
Both of these teams should enter this series with an aggressive mentality, knowing that their opponent is loaded with offensive talent. I don't think either team thinks that 2-1 or 3-2 games are going to be the norm. Depending on how this one plays out, this may be the last time we can play the over at 5.5 in this series. Take the over.
Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -133
Tampa Bay is rarely this small of a home favorite, but they are up against Cliff Lee which will be a test but not one they can't overcome. In fact, this is pretty much a wash on the mound with Matt Garza going for Tampa Bay, but the edge certainly goes to the Rays with a much better offense than the Mariners. Plus, Lee and Garza squared off earlier this month in Seattle, with the Rays winning that game 8-3 on May 5th. Garza allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners in 8 innings to get the win, while Lee allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits in 8 innings to get the loss. Garza is 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA this season and he just keeps getting better each year. The Rays are 67-25 (+29.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is hitting .233 and scoring just 3.4 runs/game this season, while the Rays are putting up 5.5 runs/game this year. Tampa Bay has been crushing lefty starters, averaging 5.9 runs/game. The Mariners are 5-22 in their last 27 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Tampa Bay on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Phillies/Brewers OVER 9.5
Milwaukee has the same problems year after year. The Brewers have no problem putting up runs offensively, but their pitching is just horrendous. The Brewers rank 28th in the league in team ERA with a 5.24 mark. Milwaukee ranks 6th in the league offensively with a .271 average and second in the league in runs scored with 197 total runs. Philly ranks third in the league with 196 runs scored. So we have two of the top three offenses in the game in terms of runs scored tonight, which makes it no surprise that the first two games of this series have gone well OVER the number. The Brewers and Phillies combined for 14 runs in Game 1 and 16 runs in Game 2, and the OVER is now 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
Pitching doesn't appear to get any better tonight as the Phillies start Cole Hamels and the Brewers throw Doug Davis. Hamels is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.824 WHIP through three road starts this season. Davis can't seem to get anybody out, going 1-4 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 2010. Davis has allowed 48 hits and 18 walks in 33.1 innings, so essentially he is putting 2 batters on base each innings. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Davis' last 9 starts overall. Milwaukee is 23-10 to the OVER in all games this season, and 36-14-5 to the OVER in their last 55 contests overall. The Phillies are 5-0 to the OVER in Hamels' last 5 road starts and 13-3 to the OVER in their last 16 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Roll with the OVER on ESPN tonight as Sunday's free pick.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Cubs -233
Reasons the Cubs win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - team with a poor OBP (<=.310) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This is a 55-11 ML System hitting 83.3% over the last 5 seasons while gaining 37 units.
2.) Simply put, after losing the first two games of this series, we cannot see the Cubs getting swept at home against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. That's why we're willing to lay this heavy juice knowing that Chicago is going to give their best effort Sunday to try to avoid this embarrassment. Bet the Cubs at home.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -133
The first time the Rays saw Lee this season, they peppered him pretty good in an 8-3 win. Considering the Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter, I like their chances against Lee again today. Plus, the Rays are in good hands with Garza, going 7-2 in his last 9 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The Mariners are just 3-11 in their last 14 overall and 5-22 in their last 27 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Rays Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -125
Look for the Cards to take this series with a Game 3 win behind Brad Penny. Penny has been terrific with an ERA of only 1.70 on the season. Plus, Penny is 7-3 lifetime when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 3.27. The Cards have not supported him very well at times this season, but I like their chances of doing so against Arroyo, who has a lofty ERA of 6.50 at home. Arroyo is 6-8 lifetime when starting against St. Louis with an ERA of 4.24. It is also worth noting that the Reds are only 5-15 in Arroyo's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, Sunday has been the day to fade him as the Reds are just 3-13 in his last 16 Sunday starts. Lastly, St. Louis is 12-3 in road games when revenging a one run loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 7.0 to 4.2. Cash in with the Cards.
Rob Vinciletti
Athletics vs. Angels
Play: Over 8.5
Oakland has played over all 5 times this year as a road dog from +125 to+150 and 4 of 5 times on Sunday. The Angles have played over 4 of the last 5 times as a home favorite in this range. Both teams have poor bullpens this year nearing an era of 5. The bullpens may be busy today too. Oakland has T.Cahill on the mound and he has a 6.75 road era and the Angels J.Pineiro has a 6.52 era over his last three starts. Even worse he has allowed 20 runs in 10+ innings vs Oakland. Look for this one to play over the total today.
DAVE MALINSKY
PITTSBURGH over CHICAGO CUBS
Sometimes the formula for success can be a simple one – a 15-22 Chicago team, with a starting pitcher that has gone 0-3/6.50 over his last three starts, can not possibly be in this price range. And with the market rate as high as it is, we do not have to invest a lot to win a lot. Count us in.
What do the Cubs bring to the table? When Derrek Lee (.230) and Aramis Ramirez (.170) are not producing the offense lacks oomph, and they can not make up for that with speed, with only the Phillies in the N.L. having fewer stolen bases. The defense rates a lowly #27 on our best set of ratings. And Lilly may not be ready yet, with that recent slide particularly marked by the fact that he has only struck out three batters over 13 innings of the last two starts. One of those was a loss in Pittsburgh, so now the Pirates get a quick second look against a repertoire that is far more limited than the way this game is being priced.
Meanwhile the Pirates bring plenty of confidence to the table after winning the first two games in this series, and have an under-valued Ross Ohlendorf taking the hill. Ohlendorf has worked to a solid 11-11/3.88 since coming over from the Yankees, and after being on a pitch count against the Reds earlier in the week is now being given a clean bill of health. He brings more than enough to use in this price range, especially with a hungry team behind him that sits above the Cubs in the standings and will bring a lot of positive energy to Wrigley this afternoon.
Tom Freese
Mariners vs. Rays
Play: Under 7
Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his 7 starts this year. The Rays are 25-9-2 UNDER their last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 22-8 UNDER their last 30 Sunday games. The Rays are 26-7-1 UNDER their last 34 meetings with Seattle. The Mariners starter Cliff Lee has allowed 6 runs total in three starts this year. The Mariners are 17-6-3 UNDER their 26 games as underdogs and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 road games. Seattle is 13-6-4 UNDER vs. a team with winning record. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +1.61 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito is 5-1 with an ERA of 1.90 and it’s just not possible for this very average pitcher to sustain those numbers much longer. We saw signs of the real Zito in his last start against San Diego in which he walked seven batters in five frames and was constantly behind in the count. The real Barry Zito has average stuff at best and when he falls behind hitters he virtually has no shot because then he has to come in with a fastball that tops off at 85MPH. Zito can never be trusted laying this much juice, as he’s simply not that good and the Astros have already seen him once this season. The Astros are playing better even though they lost the first two games of this series. Prior to that they swept the Cards and won four straight and they most certainly have a legit shot at winning today. Brett Myers always gives the Astros a shot. He’s pitched at least six full innings in all seven of his starts and has gone seven full in four of those. He’s allowed two runs in three of his last four starts and he throws strikes. We find some tremendous value here going against Zito and that’s all there is to it. Play Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.21 over COLORADO
Just the fact that Jeff Francis hasn’t pitched in the majors since September of ’08 makes the Nats worthy of a wager. Francis started just two games this year for the Tulsa Drillers in Double-A ball and allowed 11 hits in 11 innings. Not bad but this isn’t Double-A ball. He’s being used here because the Rocks are coming off a DH yesterday and they’re paying him nearly six million this year, thus, this call-up may be a bit premature. The Nats are a dangerous squad that plays hard every game. They can score in bunches and they surely could get to Francis early. Scott Olsen has been terrific with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.85 ERA over his last three starts. Olsen has great command and seldom walks anyone and in this day and age of the base on balls, a pitcher that throws strikes always has a good chance of winning. Olsen and the Nats have better than a good chance against Francis. Play: Washington +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia –1½ +1.15 over MILWAUKEE
The Phillies are absolutely killing it in Milwaukee with 28 hits and 17 runs over the first two games of this series. Now they’ll face Doug Davis, perhaps the Brewers worst starter and behind Davis is a bullpen that is both gassed and extremely toxic. Davis has been getting rocked every start and that’s because he’s always behind in the count and his stuff is way below average. He comes in to this one with a BAA of .343, an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.98. He’s also had a favorable schedule in which he’s faced the Padres twice, the Cubbies twice, the Dodgers in L.A. and the Braves. He’s been smoked against those light-hitting clubs at favorable parks and now he’s about to walk into some real fire. Cole Hamels is coming around for sure. He’s not allowed a single jack in three straight games with two of those being at homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. He’s struck out 49 hitters in 43 innings and that bodes well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Philly is hot while the Brewers have been awful since opening day. Things surely don’t figure to change here. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.30 over Minnesota
Something happens to the Twins when they go to Yankee Stadium and whatever it is, it’s about as ugly as it gets. They turn into the worst team in baseball and in fact, they’ve lost an incredible 29 out of its last 34 trips here. They were thumped in games one and two of this series and that’s with Liriano and Baker on the hill. Now they’ll send out a real stiff in Nick Blackburn and the Twins have already mentally lost this game before it even starts. Blackburn comes up with a good game about once every 10 starts. He has a 3-1 record with an ERA 0f 4.76 but those stats are as misleading as anyone’s. Blackburn has already surrendered seven bombs in 39 frames and at this Stadium against this team you can expect plenty more fireworks. The league is hitting .313 off Blackburn and that’s after facing KC twice, the White Sox and Baltimore. The Yanks have won 50 of its last 61 home games. Does it really matter who is pitching for the Yanks? We think not. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.15 over SAN JOSE
Both teams are locked and loaded. Both are confident and both just knocked off two very good teams. The difference, however, between the Red Wings and the Blackhawks is that Chicago is younger, quicker, hungrier and its defense is wickedly sharp at moving the puck out. The Sharks road here has been a little easier especially after Detroit went a tough seven games against the Coyotes. The Blackhawks special teams can be a difference in any series. Their postseason penalty-killing efficiency is 88%, plus they have three short-handed goals in the playoffs. With Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa, the Blackhawks are exceptionally dangerous on the power play. Their road power-play efficiency has been 32.1% (9-for-28) in the postseason. They're 5-1 on the road in the playoffs, outscoring the opposition 26-14. This is not the Blackhawks' first rodeo. They were in the conference finals last spring and learned much in their series with Detroit. Still, this isn't the same Sharks team that bowed out in the first round last season. Ten of those 20 skaters are gone but in what is a close contest and could easily be decided by the goalies, the pooch is the flavor of the day in this series and you really have to admire how the Blackhawks won three games in Vancouver in impressive fashion last series. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +1.20 over PHILADELPHIA
It’s hard to go against the Habs after they knocked off both Washington and Pittsburgh. They’re actually taking a step down in class here but in no way are they the more talented squad. However, they possess the hottest goalie on the planet and they catch the Flyers after a hugely emotional game seven in which they were down 3-0 in both the series and the game and came back to win game seven, 4-3. We all saw what happened to both Montreal and Detroit in their first game back after a seven game series and it wasn’t pretty. Well, the Flyers returning is going to be extra difficult because of its epic comeback and because they’re back on the ice with only one day off. This isn't the same Montreal team we saw earlier in the season. The Canadiens have come together, buying into coach Jacques Martin's stingy defensive philosophy. The Montreal net seems to be protected by two layers of titanium. First, an opponent must find ways to get the puck through the fortress-like defense the Canadiens can construct around the net with their superb positioning, active sticks and exceptional shot-blocking. They're very good on special teams and they just always seem to find ways to get the big goal or big kill when they need it. Play: Montreal +1.20 (Risking 2 units).