Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 19

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Detroit at Texas
The Tigers look to bounce back from yesterday's 7-2 loss and take advantage of a Texas team that is 3-7 in Derek Holland's last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100)

Game 901-902: Arizona at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.439; Miami (Nolasco) 12.998
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under

Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.289; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 16.130
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Magill) 14.842; Atlanta (Minor) 16.336
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.582; St. Louis (Gast) 14.642
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.983; Cubs (Wood) 14.502
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+135); N/A

Game 911-912: Washington at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 16.764; San Diego (Cashner) 15.771
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.547; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.835
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Over

Game 915-916: Seattle at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.893; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.934
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105); Under

Game 917-918: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.298; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.087
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.547; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.636
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 13.638; Minnesota (Hernandez) 14.194
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.368; LA Angels (Vargas) 14.217
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Over

Game 925-926: Kansas City at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.641; Oakland (Griffin) 14.125
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.005; Texas (Holland) 15.023
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under

Game 929-930: Houston at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 14.197; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.697
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-200); Under

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Wigan vs. Aston VillaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two play Sunday morning in the EPL (England Premier League). Wigan looks to be one of three teams (with Reading and Queens Park Rangers) who will be relegated, or moved to a lower division. Out of 20 teams in the EPL Aston Villa is #16 and Wigan is #18.
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Aston Villa's last nine matches have reached 3, 3, 7, 3, 2, 4, 3, 5 and 3 goals. That's 8 overs and 1 under based on a total of 2.5 goals. Wigan's last five matches have combined totals of 5, 1, 5, 5 and 5 goals. I think we see a 2-1 game on Sunday for an over.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for Sunday is on the Miami Marlins plus the money on the Arizona Diamondbacks, as it's about time for the Fish to snap this losing streak.

I won't list the pitchers in this one, but I do like my chances in this game with Tricky Ricky Nolasco against Wade Miley.

Miami's Nolasco has lost three straight decisions, but I don't think he's necessarily been himself, and also don't think that nonsense is going to last much longer. Nolasco is much better than his 2-5 record, and we're going to see that today.

As for Miley, he allowed seven runs for just the second time in his career, his last time out, and could struggle in the Miami heat and humidity in this one.

2* MIAMI

BRAD WILTON

Sunday comp play is the Phillies to take the rubber game of their 3 game series with the Reds.

Love this rookie Jonathan Pettibone of Philly, as the rookie has been a bright spot in the Phillies rotation this year, going 3-0 thus far, while the team is 4-1 behind him when he starts. His ERA at home is a slim 2.45.

Homer Bailey will take the ball for the Reds, and he did strike out 10 Phillies last month at home in a no-decision. For his career, Bailey is winless against the Phils, going 0-3 with an ERA of 4.24.

The Phillies have been good value when installed in the underdog role, as they have rewarded their backs to a tune of 9-4 they last 13 times they have been priced as the pup.

I like them today behind their rookie Pettibone to take the series.

2* PHILADELPHIA

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner is going to be on the Washington Nationals over the San Diego Padres down in Petco Park, and I want you listing both pitchers - Dan Haren and Andrew Cashner.

This is a bit of a mismatch on the mound if you ask me, as Haren brings the experience into this one, and should outclass the younger right-hander, who is about to meet his match after some stellar outings.

I know Cashner has allowed just one run over his last 14-2/3 innings of work, but the Nationals are one of the most dangerous lineups that has been one of the more disappointing lineups in the bigs. Washington is hitting a mere .228 this year - second-worst in the league - and that's not going to cut it if the Nationals plan on winning the National League East and making a run into October.

Washington is just 1-1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Nationals aren't about to leave San Diego on a losing note.

I'm counting on Haren to use his experience in Petco Park, from his days with the Arizona Diamondbacks, to lead the Nationals to the win tonight. Take the road pup with the Nationals and list both.

2* NATIONALS

BRETT ATKINS

Now, as for my freebie, the Indians are on a winning warpath right now, and the three-game win streak will climb to four with a win today, over the outmatched Mariners.

While I know Felix Hernandez is on the hill for the M's, it doesn't scare me one bit. Normally, regardless of the situation, is Hernandez is on the hill the M's are a favorite of some kind. But you notice the Indians are the favorite today?

Yes, even with Justin Masterson on the hill.

Who is Masterson? Well, he's only somone who is 6-2 with a 3.14 ERA on the year after winning three straight decisions and comes in after delivering a four-hit performance against the New York Yankees in his last outing, shutting them out while striking out nine.

You really think he's going to be intimidated by King Felix?

Not in his house... Masterson's, that is.

Take Cleveland.

1* CLEVELAND

JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Red Sox-Twins contest.

After a low-scoring game on Friday night, the teams broke out the lumber last night in Boston's 12-5 slugfest win.

More runs on the menu today as struggling John Lackey opposes Pedro Hernandez.

Lackey has lost his last 3 starts while sporting a 4.96 ERA along the way. Included is a 7 inning, 5 run (only 1 earned) showing at home versus the Twins. He has also struggled away from Fenway Park, as he is 0-3 on the road this year with an ERA of 6.59 in his away assignments!

Minnesota hurler Perdo Hernandez has been winning, but he has been giving up plenty of runs and hits along the way, as Hernandez has allowed 21 hits and 14 runs his last 12-plus frames of work. Included is a short 2-inning stint versus Boston in which he allowed 7 hits and 6 runs on May 8th.

Going to look for the offense to come out slugging again today at Target Field.

Boston-Minnesota Over the total.

1* BOSTON-MINNESOTA OVER

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the LA Angels to even the series with the White Sox by winning today and splitting two games apiece.

The Angels, who currently sit a ridiculous 11 games under .500, set a season high for runs in a 12-9 win yesterday which ended their three-game losing skid. It also ended the White Sox four-game winning streak which might have been just as important.

The White Sox hope Jake Peavy (5-1, 2.96 ERA) can compete for his 4th consecutive win of the season in his fourth straight start... something he hasn't done in three years.

As good as he's pitched, I just don't think he can get it done on the road. That also doesn't take into account the fact that he's 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA over five starts vs. the Angels.

Angels starter Jason Vargas (2-3, 4.03 ERA) doesn't have a good history vs. the White Sox either, but at least he hasn't faced them many times as evidenced by his 0-1 record. In his last start Vargas went seven innings allowing just two runs on five hits in a 6-2 win over the Royals Tuesday.

This game should have plenty of offense, but in the end the Angels need it more and should come out on top.

Take the Angels at home as your free play of the day.

3* L.A. ANGELS

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Kansas City vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm recommending a small wager on the A's Sunday over the Royals. They have beaten Kansas City by identical 2-1 scores the last two days, and for me I cashed a winning Under ticket Friday. That's only a part of my perfect 9-0 run the last two days with premium releases as May has been quite kind to those following me. In fact, I have cashed 70% of my selections the last four weeks (96-45-1), which comes out to a $31K profit!
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Royals Not Hitting: The Royals have lost 9 of 12. In those nine losses, they have scored a total of 21 runs and consider in one of those games, they scored six times. In their last five losses, they have scored a total of just eight times. Last night saw them go just 1 for 7 at the plate with runners in scoring position. The road is typically not the place a team is going to break out of an offensive slump.
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2. Pitching Matchup - You definitely have to like AJ Griffin over Luis Mendoza. Griffin has been sharp this month, turning in a 2-1 record and 1.74 ERA. His WHIP is 1.016. He just beat Texas by allowing only one run over seven innings. His KW ratio was an oustatanding 8-0. Not only are the A's 18-6 with Griffin on the mound the last two years, but they are 11-1 when they are off a win and he's pitching. For the Royals, Luis Mendoza has only one win on the season and an ERA north of 6.00.
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3. X-Factor - Oakland is 32-11 as a favorite of -125 to -175 the last two seasons.

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Tampa Bay vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays have taken the first two games of this series in a pair of slugfests. I look for things to settle down considerably on Sunday as we have a fine pitching matchup between Matt Moore and Chris Tillman. I'll grab the insurance run with the Orioles as they aim to avoid the sweep.
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It's not as if the Rays were on fire heading into this series, having dropped back-to-back games at home against the Red Sox. They've been an inconsistent offensive club for much of the season, and I don't expect that to change now. Off a pair of explosive games at the dish, look for them to show some regression on Sunday afternoon.
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Rays starter Matt Moore has posted a perfect 8-0 team record in his first eight starts this season - a stark contrast to what we saw from him early in last year's campaign. He hasn't exactly been dominating the opposition lately, however, as he's issued 10 walks and allowed four home runs in his last three starts, spanning 16 innings of work. He was on the hill for a 6-2 win here in Baltimore earlier this season, but had lost his previous two outings at Camden Yards - both coming last season.
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Chris Tillman will counter for the Orioles. He's quietly enjoyed a fine start to the 2013 season, having gone 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA. It's easy to forget that this was a guy that went 9-3 with a sub-3.00 ERA a year ago. Over Tillman's last five starts, he's allowed only seven earned runs in 33 2/3 innings pitched. While he's come up empty in his last two starts against the Rays, the Orioles are still 2-1 in his last three outings against them here in Baltimore.
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The Orioles bullpen has been shaky lately, a big reason why I'm willing to lay the extra juice to get an insurance run on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, it's not as if the Rays 'pen has been lights out, posting a collective 4.05 ERA on the road this season. Look for a tight game all the way, with the O's doing whatever they can to avoid the sweep.

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Kansas City vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After cashing in on Oakland last night, we're going right back for more tonight as the A's take on the Royals at home in the final game of this series. Oakland looks to complete the sweep, with A.J. Griffin on the mound versus Luis Mendoza.
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Griffin (4-3, 3.48 ERA) allowed a single run on six hits over seven innings in a 5-1 win over Texas in his last start. He's been very solid at home this year, going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. "Command-wise, I'd say it's my best start in the major leagues," said Griffin.
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Mendoza (1-2, 6.00 ERA) picked up his first win of the season, allowing three runs on six hits over six innings against the Angels his last time out. The Royals won the game 11-4, but he can't be expecting to get that sort of run support in Oakland today.
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The last two games between these two teams were both very close, with Oakland scoring late to win by a score of 2-1 in each game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more one-sided score in tonight's game.

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Detroit vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While Tigers starter Doug Fister is enjoying a good start to the 2013 season with a 5-1 record, his recent performances in Arlington suggest a different outcome tonight when facing the host Rangers. In the past, Fister has made only two starts at Texas, but he's lost both while allowing 14 runs and 19 hits (including five homers) in nine combined innings. And not sure that he can count on much support from his offense that has bogged down in this series and has batted just .215 and totaled 13 runs while losing three of four. Meanwhile, Texas lefty Derek Holland is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three home starts this season, and the Rangers are a lofty 13-5 at home after last night's 7-2 romp.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Los Angeles DodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The struggling Dodgers close out a three game set the Braves when they face Mark Minor in Atlanta Sunday afternoon. That's good news for Los Angeles considering Minor is 0-4 with a 6.36 ERA at home in his career team starts during the month of May. In addition, Minor is also 0-2 at home in his career team starts in this series. With that look for L. A. to catch a break here today. We recommend a 1-unit play in the Dodgers.

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St Louis Cardinals -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kyle Lohse has struggled for Milwaukee this season. In 8 starts he has posted a 1-4 record. In his last three starts he has a 5.29 ERA and 1.941 WHIP. Those numbers are not good considering he is up against a St. Louis team that is batting .274 over the past 7 games and the Cardinals have a .346 on base percentage in that same span.
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Milwaukee has had a hard time scoring runs which is why they are sitting on a 17-24 overall record. They are batting a mere .238 on the road and average 3.6 runs per game. For every win on the road they are losing two games and they have posted a 7-13 record. Kyle Lohse’s career has not seen much success against St Louis. His team is 2-5 in his 7 career starts against the Cardinals.