Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds fit a nice system here today that plays on road favorites off a road win and scored 10 or more runs if the total in that game was 8 or less and their opponent is off a home loss by 5 or more and scored 2 or less runs with 5 or more hits. These teams have won 12 of the last 16 times. The Reds have Homer Bailey going and he has 3 straight quality start vs the Phillies and has allowed 5 earned runs in 22 innings vs the Phils. He will oppose Johnathan Pettibone here today. Pettibone has pitched well for the Phillies though much better at night and against losing teams. The Reds vaunted Lineup could pose problems here for him today. The Reds are 17-8 vs teams under .500 and have won 7 of the last 8. They are also 5-1 on Sunday and are averaging over 5 runs per game in day games. Look for the Reds to take the finale.
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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No question Kyle Lohse will want to pitch well for the Brewers today as they close out their weekend set with the Cardinals. This is the first trip back to St. Louis for Lohse and I'm sure he would love to send a message to Redbirds management that they should have tried a little harder to hang onto him. Unfortunately for Lohse, that figures to be easier said than done. The veteran pitcher has not been especially sharp lately and he's facing a team that has been tearing up righties.
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John Gast gets his second start for the Redbirds, and the lefty was not too bad in his debut. I'm not sold that Gast is entirely ready for this level just yet, but on the other hand I've always liked playing on rookie southpaws in their first trip around the loop against hitters unfamiliar with them.
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The main catalyst for playing the Cardinals here, however, is the team data. The Brewers have been a terrible team thus far. Take out that one big surge where they won nine straight, and the Brew Crew is a disastrous 8-24 in their other 32 games. As usual, they're a bad road team. Contrast that with St. Louis, which has the second best record in all of baseball, and you're looking at a number that is somewhat of a bargain. I'll try my luck with the Cardinals to close out this series with a win.
Jim Feist
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
Not really sure how they have done it, but the Yankees are in first place in the AL East. They have accomplished this without most of their star players, who remain on the injured list. One thing is for sure, it's not a dominant hitting attack, as the Yankees are sixth from the bottom of the AL in runs/game (4.21) and below the league average in batting average (.252). Pitching has been good for the Yankees, ranked 2nd in the league in ERA (3.74) and fifth in WHIP (1.258). Still the injuries mount for NY. With Kevin Youklis (15 dl), Derek Jeter (60 day DL), Alex Rodriquez (60 day DL), Mark Teixeira (60 day DL) all still missing from the lineup. Now the pitching staff has seen Andy Pettitte (Trap) and IVan Nov (Tricep) also land on the 15-day DL. Meanwhile, Toronto is in last place in the AL East, 10 games back of the Yankees. Despite trading in the offseason for todays starter, R.A. Dickey, the staff is second worst in the AL in ERA (4.77) and 2nd worst in WHIP (1.461). Dickey has had a rough time since coming over from the Mets in the offseason, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.83 ERA). However, Dicky is coming off a fine performance last time out, allowing just two earned runs over six innings. CC Sabathia starts for the Yankees with a 4.3 mark and 3.19 ERA. I'm still not a believer in this Yankee club. And one thins is for sure, they won't blow out a lot of clubs. Dickey is better than his record has shown and I look for the knuckleballer to come around. Good value here on Sunday with the dog and Dickey.
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Philadelphia +120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Homer Bailey is overpriced here. Bailey has been inconsisent his whole career. But he's a mid-size road favorite in this matchup based partly on his last performance. That came against the weak-hitting Marlins this past Tuesday. Bailey went the distance throwing a six-hitter with a career-high 10 strikeouts in a 6-2 victory. He also threw a career-high 125 pitches.
That is going to come back and bite him here.
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Bailey wasn't in good form until facing the Marlins, who rank last in nearly every major offensive category including runs, homers and batting average. He was 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in his two previous starts before his outing against Miami.
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The Phillies have been tough as an underdog winning nine of the last 13 times in that role. They saw Bailey a month ago. Bailey pitched well against Philadelphia in that start, but he's 0-3 with a 4.24 ERA lifetime against the Phillies.
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Philadelphia starter Jonathan Pettibone has done a nice job since coming up to the majors going 3-0. He's been at his best at home compiling a 2.45 ERA with a 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 1/3 innings.
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The Reds have been playing much better on the road, but they still have a losing away mark. They also historically have had trouble at Citizens Bank going 12-23 in their past 35 games there.
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa SenatorsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Pittsburgh PenguinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pittsburgh Penguins will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in their Eastern Conference Semi-Finals series with the Senators when the two teams meet tonight at the Scotiabank Place in Ottawa. The Penguins have taken the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 and it looks as if Sidney Crosby has returned to form after a broken jaw, scoring a hat trick in Game 2. Tomas Vokoun, who replaced a shaky Marc-Andre Fleury in the team’s first round series has been excellent for the Penguins and will get the call between the pipes once again. He has posted a 4-0 record with a 1.70 GAA and .945 save % in his four starts. Vokoun will be opposed by Craig Anderson, who was yanked after allowing two soft goals in Game 2. He has struggled a bit in the playoffs so far, posting a 2.52 GAA over 7 starts. The Penguins, who lead the Eastern Conference for most of the season, have been excellent in the spot they are in here tonight against the Senators. They have posted a 20-7-0 record on the road this season and have won 36 of their last 53 games against teams from the Northeast Division. They have also been lights out in games played on a Sunday, winning six straight. The Senators, who didn’t clinch their spot in the playoffs until the second to last day of the season have actually struggled a bit in the situation they are in here this evening. They have lost 4 straight games against teams from the Atlantic Division and have posted an awful 1-9 record in their last 10 games against teams that a winning % of .600 or greater. Pair that wit the fact that the Penguins have won the last 5 head to head meetings with the Senators and we’ll lay the short price with them on the road here to get the win and put the Senators on the brink of elimination in the 2012-13 NHL Playoffs.
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Detroit vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Needless to say, I think everyone was surprised when Thursday's series opener went Over considering the pitching matchup was Yu Darvish vs. Justin Verlander. The latter got shelled, something that rarely happens. But then the teams played to a 2-1 final Friday. Then, yesterday saw the Rangers win 7-2, again falling short of the number. Tonight on ESPN, I'll look for an Over....
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Detroit is 14-3 Over off a loss this season. Though Rangers starter Derek Holland has some nice looking numbers this year, he allowed four runs in his last start and didn't last six innings. The Tigers average 5.1 runs per game vs. lefties.
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The Rangers have scored 18 runs in this series. That's right on their pace for the last week as they are averaging just over six full runs per game. They average 5.3 runs per game at home. Last time they faced Fister saw them score nine runs in less than five innings against him. Fister has a 4.50 ERA his last three starts.
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Arizona Diamondbacks -150FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marlins have lost 7 in a row and haven't scored more than 3 runs in any game during the skid. They'll have a tough time getting anything off Arizona southpaw Miley considering they are batting only .195 and scoring just 1.4 runs per game in 14 games against lefty starters this season. They are 2-12 in these games. Miley is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his 2 starts versus Miami. Take the D-backs.
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San Francisco Giants +111FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite losses in their last two games, the Giants are still 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Colorado. Look for them to continue their dominance over their division rivals behind a gem from Zito. He's 8-2 (14-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.51 in 19 starts versus the Rockies. The Giants are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Colorado, 21-6 in his last 27 starts overall and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Colorado's Juan Nicasio is 0-2 on the money line with an ERA of 5.73 in a pair of starts versus the Giants. The Rockies are 2-5 in his last 7 home starts and 2-7 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take the Giants.
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Detroit Tigers +107FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing two out of the first three games in this series, the Detroit Tigers want a win in Game 4 to square it up. I'll back them at an excellent price tonight with Doug Fister on the mound.
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Fister has been dominant all season, and he deserves more respect from the books as a result. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.180 WHIP through eight starts this season.
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The Tigers are 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts with a total set of 9.0 to 10.5. Bet the Tigers Sunday.
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St. Louis Cardinals -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have been dominating this year against the Brewers. 7-2 run this year against the Brewers. The Cardinals are also 11-2 after a loss, and are averaging 5.2 runs per game when facing a right handed pitcher. The Brewers are 4-12 against left handed pitchers, and 7-13 on the road.
Take the Cardinals to win
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Detroit Tigers at Texas RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall, and they're 37-18 in their last 55 Sunday games. The Detroit Tigers do not fair too well down south as they're 3-10 in their last 12 meetings vs. Texas. The Rangers are up in the series 2-1 and will look to complete the series win on Sunday in prime time on ESPN. Play the Rangers.
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OTTAWA +115 over PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Pittsburgh has without question been the better team in this series The Penguins have dominated the first 10 minutes of both games by a wide, wide margin and have gone on to outplay and outwork the Senators for the majority of the first two games as well. Ottawa’s 4-3 loss in Game 2 was a flattering score to the Sens, as they were they outshot 42 to 22 and they were also out-chanced 23 to 10. They really had no business being in that game. The Sens were better in the 4-1 loss in Game 1. These are not the Senators we’ve been accustomed to seeing. This is a team that worked their tails off in their quest to make the playoffs. They showed heart, determination and focus all season and carried that into their first round upset of the Canadiens. The Senators are not a team that gets outworked by this wide a margin and a response is in order. They appear to be in awe of the Penguins and that has to change right now for this Game 3 and we can assure you it will. Ottawa is healthier than they’ve been the entire year. They get Jason Spezza back for this one and while he may not contribute right away, the Penguins at least have to pay attention to him. They also have an edge in net and on defense. They Senators also have the advantage of being energized by a raucous home crowd and one can never dismiss that edge. Ottawa won both games at home against Montreal in round one and are now 17-6-3 at Scotiabank Place.
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The Penguins seem to be getting better as the postseason progresses and while their offense is beauty in motion, they still have many flaws in net and behind the blue-line. Because the Pens have outplayed the Sens by such a wide margin, Pittsburgh has a nice psychological edge too but that can change in a hurry. If the Senators have any hope of getting back into this series, they will get back to playing Senator hockey here by slowing this team down, dumping and chasing and most importantly, OUTWORKING the Penguins. We’re betting they do precisely that.
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COLORADO -1½ +164 over San FranciscoSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants have to be feeling exhausted right about now. They lost yesterday by a final score of 10-2. The Giants have now been tagged for 47 runs against in their last five games and 10 runs or more against in four of those five. It’s one thing to lose a game but it’s quite another to be down by such crooked numbers early and end up having to play a marathon game when you’re down by five or six runs. In Barry Zito’s last start in Toronto, the Giants were down 6-0 after one inning. The next night in Toronto also, they were down 5-1 after one inning and 10-1 after three innings. Things haven’t been much better in Colorado, where the Giants were down 9-5 after five innings on Friday and down 6-1 after five innings yesterday. Playing in the high altitude in Denver is tiring enough, playing their fourth straight game there after allowing 47 runs against over their past five games, San Fran’s and it’s bullpen figures to running on fumes here.
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We’ve been writing about how bad Barry Zito is for years. He’s not only been baseball’s luckiest pitcher for 2 years running, his skills are getting worse, not better. The Legend of Barry Zito made a wonderful story during the summer of 2012 that continued this spring and into the first six weeks, as he returned to relevance. But has he? No, he has not. A line-drive rate of 28% this season indicates that hitters have no problem squaring Zito up.
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The big-two overall metrics that wrap up the individual items, xERA (5.75) and groundball rate (36%) are again far below desired levels. Expected ERA, in fact, is worse this year than any season since 2008. Zito gets credit for seeing his contract through and continuing to try to justify his lofty price tag but that doesn’t mean he’s an asset; the metrics tell us just the opposite. Zito’s 3.40 ERA is unsustainable. In three road starts in Milwaukee, San Diego and Toronto, Zito has lasted a combined 12 innings has allowed 26 hits and 20 earned runs for a road ERA of 11.25 and a road BAA of .426. At this park against this team, he’s going to get crushed again and with an already taxed bullpen, manager Bruce Bochy is likely going to leave Zito in there longer than he normally would.
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Micro-fracture knee surgery in July ended Juan Nicasio’s season a year ago, curtailing his comeback from a fractured vertebrae that ended 2011. Between injuries, he has demonstrated a promising high-strikeout rate and a groundball-tilted profile that xERA likes. Poor results + injury history + latent skills = a potential profit candidate. Nicasio’s shelf time has prevented him from making use of his 94 mph fastball, a pitch that has given him his fair share of K’s. That said, there are warning signs in addition to his poor durability. His 7.3% swinging strike rate doesn't support a high strikeout rate and he's a two-pitch pitcher. In eight starts, Nicasio has made it past the fifth inning just two times. He’s unlikely to go past five innings again here because he’s not strong enough to do so. This one looks like another slugfest and if the Giants end up winning this game, we can almost assure you that’s it’s going to be a high scoring affair. It’s for that reason that we’ll play this game over the number as well as taking the Rockies on the run line.
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Milwaukee +111 over ST. LOUISFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers rallied from six runs down on Friday in the opener of this series before losing it 7-6. They rebounded yesterday with an extra inning victory and have showed some real fight in them in the two games so far. The Brewers now get the most favorable matchup of the three games here. Kyle Lohse has had nothing but success at this park, where he went 9-1 with the Cardinals last year with an ERA of 2.30. Lohse has pinpoint control (10 BB in 49 IP), a groundball bias profile and his strikeout rate is up a tick (33 K’s). These skills allow Lohse to usually pitch deep into games and you know for sure he’ll be a little extra amped up for this one.
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John Gast, 24 was originally drafted in the 5th round of the '07 draft by Texas but chose instead to go to Florida State University, where he pitched for three seasons before the Cardinals drafted him in the 6th round in '10. Gast systematically has worked his way from Low-A up through the system, advancing one level at some point during each season. He got out to a very fast April 2013 at Triple-A Memphis not allowing an earned run in his five starts. His strikeout rate is a tick higher this season than career norms, as is his control. He is a short, power lefty with a nice 90-93 mph fastball. He will also throw a good change-up and decent curveball. His delivery is nearly max-effort which is troubling for a starter, particularly one who has already had Tommy John surgery early on in their career. This combined with a lack of overpowering stuff could mean a more productive future in the bullpen. In his first career start last week against the Mets, Gast went six full innings and surrendered six hits and four earned runs while walking just one and striking out three. He got the win for his efforts because the Cardinals scored 10 runs. What follows a MLB debut win is usually a letdown and now Gast will face a Brewers club that is hitting a robust .282 against lefties this season. Chances are the Brew Crew will get to this rookie and that makes this visitor a worthwhile investment.
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SAN DIEGO -½ +114 over WashingtonSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Nationals are perceived as the much better team and will probably draw a lot of attention in this matchup because that and because they are taking back a tag. Dan Haren is also a more well-known pitcher than Andrew Cashner and Haren brings a strong reputation with him. What may surprise you is that the Padres are better than the Nationals in just about every key category, including team batting average, stolen bases, defense and they also have a deeper bench. Dan Haren has pinpoint control with just six walks in 45 frames but that’s about all he has. Haren’s fastball has trouble breaking 90 mph now. His swinging strike rate trend during the last four seasons says to heed caution: 10.7%, 10.1%, 9.9%, 8.7%, 7.5%. Haren also has a rather ugly 35%/22%/43% GB/LD/FB batted ball profile and while his pinpoint control does give him less blowup risk than most average pitchers, his upside is long gone and even a 4.50 ERA might be a stretch now. Haren has three pure quality starts in eight attempts this season and should not be viewed as a good pitcher anymore.
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Andrew Cashner went 3-4 last year with a 4.27 ERA in 46 IP. He transitioned from relief to starter then lost 60 days to a lat strain (after rotator cuff injury washed out 2011). Cashner’s health poses questions, skills not so much. The kid throws gas; had 23/3 K/BB in 19 IP as starter and he induces grounders. If body parts cooperate, he’s a definite breakout candidate. We’re not sure people realize how good this kid really is. In five starts this season, Cashner's fastball velocity has averaged 94.8 MPH, second only to Stephen Strasburg among NL starters. His fastball has good movement and has reached 98 MPH on several occasions. He's a work in progress, for sure, but a talented work and he’s coming on with just one runs allowed over his past 14.1 innings and that includes a 7.1 inning gem at Baltimore. Cashner will now face a Nationals team that is hitting just .226 over the past 15 games. The Padres are very likely going to do some damage against Haren while Cashner has the ability to make quick work of these light hitting Nats and therefore we’ll play this one in the first five innings.
Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs - 4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I really love the way the Grizzles play, but in the games when they get together the Spurs shut them down from the three point line. Memphis is just not high powered enough and the only way they win this series is if they play excellent defense and win all their home games. We will find a lot more tonight. Take the spurs.
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Rays -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Moore is perfect on the year. Let's take him at this price. I Dont think Moore is the best pitcher in the league bit he is one of them so why go against him at even money. Take Tampa.