SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (3-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (3-3 SU and ATS)
The third-seeded Hawks, who have already avoided an early exit once, look to finish off the upset-minded Bucks at Philips Arena in the only first-round series that has stretched to seven games.
After posting double-digit home wins in the first two games of this series, then dumping the next three to stand on the brink of elimination, Atlanta shut down Milwaukee in Game 5 Friday night, rolling to an 83-69 victory as a 1½-point road favorite. The Hawks held the Bucks under 20 points in each of the first three quarters, including a meager 11 in the third frame, and they finished with a 51-42 rebounding edge, more than making up for their 38.3 percent shooting (31 of 81). Jamal Crawford (24 points) and Joe Johnson (22 points) led the way for Atlanta, and Al Horford piled up 15 points and 15 boards.
Sixth-seeded Milwaukee shot a lowly 32.9 percent in the loss (25 of 76), going just 7-for-26 from three-point range (26.9 percent) in the process. About the only thing the Bucks did effectively was shoot free throws, going 12-for-12, but Atlanta got to the charity stripe 10 more times and hit 16. Carlos Delfino had 20 points, but no other Buck scored more than 12.
Atlanta is a superb 36-8 SU (27-17 ATS) at home this year, averaging 103.9 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting, while allowing 95.6 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting. However, the Hawks were up by nine points with four minutes left in Game 5 at Philips Arena before allowing a 14-0 Milwaukee run en route to a 91-87 upset loss.
With its Game 5 win in Atlanta, Milwaukee is now 30-14 (29-14-1 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by less than half a point per game (95.3-95.0) and outshot 44.9 percent to 43.2 percent.
Atlanta’s Game 6 win halted a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Milwaukee in this series, and the SU winner has cashed in all six games in this series and seven in a row overall dating to the regular season. In fact, the SU winner is 17-3-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes in this rivalry, and the favorite is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Also, the SU winner is a scorching 23-0-1 ATS in Atlanta’s last 24 playoff games, and the winner is 12-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 13 contests overall.
The Bucks – who went an NBA-leading 52-28-2 ATS in the regular season – are on pointspread rolls of 36-14-2 overall, a stout 20-5-1 on the highway, 13-3 as a road pup, 21-8 after a SU loss, 8-2 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 9-3 catching five to 10½ points. However, they are also in ATS ruts of 3-9-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 4-9-1 in first-round playoff games.
Likewise, the Hawks are on a handful of ATS upswings, including 7-3 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 coming off a SU win, 4-0 after a SU win of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 9-3 on Sunday, 10-4 against winning teams and 5-2 as a playoff chalk.
Friday’s outing fell miles short of the 189-point posted price, but the total has still gone high in 11 of the last 14 meetings overall in this rivalry – including four of six in this series – and the over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Philips Arena.
In addition, the Bucks are several “over” sprees, including 15-6-2 in first-round playoff games, 10-3 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover, though the under for Milwaukee is on surges of 5-2 on the road, 4-1 with the Bucks a road pup and 7-3 on Sunday. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 7-3 against winning teams and 16-5 after a SU win, but the under is 13-5 in the Hawks’ last 18 Sunday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (4-2 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
After a hard-fought opening-round victory, the defending NBA champion Lakers begin their Western Conference best-of-7 semifinal series against the fifth-seeded Jazz inside the Staples Center.
Utah dispatched of the fourth-seeded Nuggets in six games, wrapping things up with a 112-104 home win on Friday, cashing as a 6½-point favorite. The Jazz continued their hot playoff shooting Friday, hitting 52.2 percent of their field goals, led by Carlos Boozer who shot 10-for-14 from the field for 22 points to go with 20 rebounds. Wesley Matthews chipped in 23 points for Utah and reserve Paul Millsap added 21.
The Lakers put away the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Friday, winning 95-94 when Pau Gasol put back a Kobe Bryant miss with 0.5 seconds left, getting Los Angeles the win and cover as one-point underdogs. Bryant finished with 32 points and Gasol added nine points and 18 rebounds as the Lakers held the Thunder to just 36.5 percent shooting.
The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), including two easy wins and covers in Hollywood, capped by a 106-92 victory exactly a month ago as a 4½-point favorite.
Los Angeles is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings overall (15-8-1 ATS) and it has won 14 consecutive meetings at the Staples Center (11-3 ATS). In fact, the home team has cashed in 18 of the last 27 head-to-head clashes.
Utah is 22-22 (24-18-1 ATS) on the road this season and just 5-6 (SU and ATS) in its last 11 on the highway (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs). Los Angeles has gone 37-7 inside Staples Center, but just 18-24-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.5-94.8).
The Jazz are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as road ‘dogs, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on the road against teams with winning home records and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 as ‘dogs of five to 10½ points, but they are on ATS surges of 35-16-3 overall (4-1 last five) and 4-0 with just one day off. The Lakers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 conference semifinal games, but otherwise they carry several negative pointspread trends, including 8-17-1 as a favorite, 4-10-1 at home, 5-16-2 after a day off, 1-7 after a straight-up win and 1-10 after a spread-cover.
Utah has stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a spread-cover, seven straight against winning teams and five of six against Pacific Division foes, but it is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 35-16-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-3 as a playoff pup, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-1 after one day off. It’s been all “unders” for Los Angeles lately, including 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 19-9 as a favorite, 37-18-2 on Sunday, 24-9 against Northwest Division teams, 7-0 against winning teams and 4-0 in conference semifinal games.
Finally, this rivalry has seen the “under” cash seven straight times – including the final three playoff contests last year – but the over has been the play in 12 of the last 17 in California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-10) at Philadelphia (12-11)
The Mets send ace Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08 ERA) to the mound for the rubber match of a three-game weekend series against Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) and the rival Phillies in a nationally televised battle from Citizens Bank Park.
Roy Halladay pitched a complete-game three-hit shutout and Shane Victorino’s three-run homer highlighted a six-run fourth inning as Philadelphia rolled the Mets 10-0 on Saturday, snapping New York’s eight-game winning streak and its own three-game home losing skid. Still, since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 13, and they’re in further funks of 0-4 against lefty starters overall and 0-5 when facing lefties at home. On the bright side, Philadelphia has won 38 of its last 51 Sunday contests.
Although the Mets’ long winning streak came to a halt Saturday, they’re still 10-2 in their last 12 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. However, Jerry Manuel’s club is still in slumps of 17-39 on the road, 16-39 against N.L. East rivals, 7-17 versus winning teams, 9-22 versus southpaw starters and 5-16 on the road against lefties.
The Phillies went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and they’ve now won 12 of the last 15 meetings, including seven of the last nine at Citizens Bank.
Santana is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three starts (all Mets wins), giving up just one run on 16 hits and four walks with 20 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. In his most recent outing Wednesday against the Dodgers, he scattered four hits and three walks over six scoreless innings of a 4-0 win. In his only road effort in 2010, the former Cy Young winner pitched seven shutout innings but didn’t factor in the decision as the Cardinals won 2-1 in 20 innings.
New York has won four of Santana’s five starts this season and four of his last five starts against the Phillies. Santana has faced Philadelphia nine times in his career, with eight of those starts coming since the joined the Mets in 2008, and he’s 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA, including 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank Park. Last year, he went 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against the Phillies.
Moyer is coming off a 6-2 loss in San Francisco, getting rocked for four runs on 10 hits in six innings. The 47-year-old has pitched exactly six innings in all four of his starts this season, including a 5-1 loss to the Marlins in his only home game so far, with Moyer giving up all five runs in that defeat.
The Phillies have really struggled lately with Moyer starting, going 2-7 in his last nine starts overall, 0-5 in his last five at home and 1-6 in his last seven against winning teams. However, Philly has won seven of Moyer’s last nine on Sunday and 37 of his last 53 starts against the N.L. East. Against the Mets, he’s 8-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 starts, including 1-1 with a beefy 6.91 ERA in five contests last year. Still, Philadelphia is 5-2 in Moyer’s last seven outings against New York.
The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-5-1 overall, 4-2 on the road, 6-1 against N.L. East foes and 21-8-1 on Sunday, and with Santana on the hill, the under is on stretches of 3-0-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1 on Sunday.
The under is also 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven divisional games and 7-3 both in Moyer’s last 10 Sunday starts and his last 10 against the N.L. East. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 35-16-2 overall, 11-3-1 at home, 12-2 in the third game of a series, 6-2 on Sunday and 5-1 when Moyer starts at home.
Finally, these teams soared over the total Saturday, but the under is still 11-3 in the last 14 series meetings overall, including 7-2 in the last nine in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-13) at Detroit (15-10)
Jered Weaver (3-0, 2.53 ERA) looks to keep his perfect record intact and help his team avoid a three-game sweep when he leads the Angels against Justin Verlander (1-2, 5.53) and the Tigers in the finale of a weekend series at Comerica Park.
Detroit stretched its winning streak to four in a row with Saturday’s 3-2 walk-off victory over Los Angeles, as Johnny Damon belted a game-winning homer with one out in the bottom of the ninth. The Tigers are on positive runs of 8-3 at home this year, 4-1 versus right-handed starters, 7-2 in the third game of a series, 6-2 versus the A.L. West and 7-2 on Sunday
Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-6 in its last 10 games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-4 versus winning teams, 36-15 on Sunday and 49-19 in the third game of a series.
These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last four in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-25 overall run in this rivalry.
Weaver dominated the Indians in a 5-2 home victory Monday, giving up just a run on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven in six innings. The veteran right-hander pitched at least six innings and gave up three earned runs or fewer in all five of his April starts, including yielding two runs or fewer in the last four, and he’s got a 34-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Additionally, going back to last season (playoffs included), Weaver has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and 13 of the last 14.
With Weaver on the bump, the Halos are on positive runs of 23-9 overall (7-1 last eight), 10-4 on the road (1-0 this year), 9-2 versus A.L. Central foes and 6-1 on Sunday. However, the only game the Angels have lost this season with Weaver pitching came against Detroit on April 21, as he surrendered two runs on six hits in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3 loss. For his career, Weaver is 2-2 with a 6.34 ERA against the Tigers, including 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in one game at Comerica Park.
Verlander allowed just one unearned run and four hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Twins on Tuesday, but he threw 121 pitches and got no run support in a 2-0 home loss. It marked the fourth time in five starts this year that the right-hander failed to get out of the sixth inning, and he’s now 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in two home starts this season.
Prior to facing the Twins, Verlander led his team to a 5-4 road victory over Los Angeles despite surrendering four runs on six hits and four walks in five innings. He’s now 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in seven career starts against Los Angeles, but the Tigers have lost four straight home games to the Angels with Verlander starting. On the positive end, with Verlander working Detroit is on upticks of 6-2 overall, 44-21 at home, 17-8 against the A.L. West and 16-4 on Sunday.
The Halos sport “under” streaks of 21-6 on the road, 15-5-1 versus the A.L. Central and 14-4 against right-handed starters on the road. Also, with Weaver starting, the under is on runs of 9-1-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Sunday, 20-7-1 against the A.L. Central and 3-1 versus the Tigers. Conversely, Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-3-1 overall, 6-3 at home, 5-1-1 versus the A.L. West, 4-1-1 against right-handed starters, 7-2-1 behind Verlander overall, 4-1 when Verlander starts at home and 3-1 when Verlander faces L.A.
Finally, the under is 7-3-1 the last 10 times the Angels have visited Motown, with Saturday’s contest staying well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DUNKEL INDEX
Utah at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to take advantage of a Utah team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a road underdog. LA is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7)
Game 571-572: Milwaukee at Atlanta (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.252; Atlanta 121.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Utah at LA Lakers (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.303; LA Lakers 126.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 199
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7); Over
MLB
Minnesota at Cleveland
The Twins look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games following a loss. Minnesota is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-165)
Game 951-952: Washington at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.504; Florida (Johnson) 16.292
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-210); Under
Game 953-954: Houston at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.087; Atlanta (Lowe) 13.418
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Over
Game 955-956: Cincinnati at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 15.297; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.077
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-260); Under
Game 957-958: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 15.131; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.540
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.036; San Diego (Garland) 14.801
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under
Game 961-962: Colorado at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.843; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.458
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Under
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.005; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 13.287
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Over
Game 965-966: NY Mets at Philadelphia (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.844; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.974
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under
Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.773; Cleveland (Huff) 14.903
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-165); Over
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.138; Detroit (Verlander) 15.477
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Under
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 16.426; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.894
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+180); Over
Game 973-974: Oakland at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 15.589; Toronto (Marcum) 15.009
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over
Game 975-976: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 14.156; Baltimore (Millwood) 14.549
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Under
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 16.983; Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.779
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.580; Seattle (Fister) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over
NHL
Montreal at Pittsburgh
The Canadiens look to bounce back from their 6-3 loss in Game 1 and take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games after scoring 5 goals or more in the previous game. Montreal is the pick (+240) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+240)
Game 59-60: Montreal at Pittsburgh (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.092; Pittsburgh 11.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-290); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+240); Over
Game 61-62: Detroit at San Jose (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.595; San Jose 13.537
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-135); Under
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox and Orioles wrap up a three game series in Baltimore today when Josh Beckett takes the mound looking to improve to 8-1 in his last nine team starts in this park. Beckett is also 16-4 in his last 20 team starts in May, including 4-0 his last four away. With that, look for more of the same here today.
Tom Freese
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets look to take their series with the Phillies. We like their chances with Johan Santana who has allowed one run total in his last 3 starts. New York is 7-0 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 130. The Mets are 8-1 their last 9 games. Philadelphia is 0-7 in Jamie Moyers last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Moyer is 2-7 his last 9 starts. The Phillies are 0-5 their last 5 games vs. lefty starters and they are 1-5 off a win. PLAY ON NEW YORK -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
We’ll take the generous points with the Bucks here this afternoon, as we’re not convinced this Atlanta team can score enough points to blow out Milwaukee. The Bucks stunned the Hawks in Atlanta in Game Five, and have held the Hawks to 87 and 83 points the last two games. Plus, one could argue that Milwaukee beat themselves in Game Six, and even an average offensive performance would have put the Bucks in the second round. As it stands, just too many points to be laying.
Play on: Milwaukee Bucks
Steve Merril
Rockies vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
Jhoulys Chacin makes his first start of the season for the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon as they wrap up their series against the Giants in San Francisco. The right hander was recalled on Tuesday and he pitched one inning so far for the team striking out two against Arizona. Chacin was 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts at Triple-A Colorado Springs. He throws multiple pitches and he’ll be tough to solve for a Giants lineup that has gone Under the total in 11 of their last 12 games including six of eight games against divisional opponents. San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez has been lights out going 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA so far this year. Sanchez is coming off a solid outing against the Phillies where he limited that lineup to only three hits and one run in five innings of work. Sanchez's last start against the Rockies came in Colorado last season where he gave up one run and two hits in five innings. Todd Helton (5-20), Clint Barmes (4-17), Ian Stewart (0-4) and Carlos Gonzalez (0-3) all struggle against the lefty. The Rockies average only 4.2 runs per game on the road and they’ve gone Under in five of their last seven away from Coors Field. With two strong pitchers on the mound facing two struggling lineups, we expect a low-scoring game this afternoon.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Washington Nationals
5* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they take on the Florida Marlins set to start at 1:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the nationals will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 48-37 making 51.2 units since 2004. Play against home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season and averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season. Nats are a solid 10-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. Marlins are just 6-17 (-15.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nationals.
Craig Trapp
Jazz vs. Lakers
Play: Under 200
These two played 4 games this year going under in all 4 games. In fact they only averaged 186.5 in the 4 games played head to head this year. The Lakers offense has gone south the last month but lucky for them the defense has been unbelievable. For LA to win they just can't outscore teams this year instead they play a much slower ball controlled game. UTAH looks to get back best defender AK47 which should help them matchup much better with Kobe and other big guards/forwards. This one has over all over it as these two teams did all regular season.
Rob Vinciletti
LAA Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers get the call here today. They are off a close win on Saturday and have a fine 8-3 day record. They send hard throwing righty J.Verlander today and in his last start here at home vs the Halos he went 8 strong innings allowing no runs. The Angels have J.Weaver taking the hill today and he has a 6.34 era vs the Tigers. Detroit has come alive offensively of late averaging over 6 runs per game and hitting right around .300 the past 7 games. As a home favorite from -100 to -125 they have won 3 of 4 times this season. Look for them to get the win here today.
BIG AL
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
We're only one month into the season, but so far Chicago's Tom Gorzelanny would seem to be the winner of the "Rodney Dangerfield" award given to the Major League starter who gets the least amount of respect from his teammates. The 27-year-old lefthander has pitched very well for his new team in his first four starts, but has absolutely nothing to show for it. Just how good has the veteran southpaw and former Pirate been for this team? How about a 2.45 ERA and WHIP just a shade over 1.0? And just how weak has the hitting been when he's on the mound? How about a total of seven runs scored by the Cubbies in Gorzelanny's four outings? And it likely won't get any better for Gorzelanny at home this afternoon against the D-Backs, as in four lifetime starts against Arizona he has only a single win to go with a 5.09 ERA. These two teams played six times in 2009, with Arizona taking four of those games, including two of three at Wrigley Field. Take the Diamondbacks.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -154
Bottom Line: Look for the Twins to bounce back strong today as they are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Plus, the Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. The Indians have really struggled against southpaw starters. In fact, they are just 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter. Those struggles figure to continue when you consider that Liriano is 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 0.93 and a WHIP of 0.966 this season. The Twins get a southpaw today too, but they are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins are also 38-13 in their last 51 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and I'll take them in this price range today.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -145
Edwin Jackson has really struggled since coming over to the National League. The D-backs are just 1-4 in his starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 6.67 and a WHIP of 1.588. They have lost both of his road starts and he has a brutal 10.80 ERA and 2.401 WHIP in those games. The Cubs are yet to win with Tom Gorzelanny on the mound, but I believe it's coming today. He has pitched well enough to win, posting a very tidy 2.45 ERA, but he has not received any run support. The Cubs are starting to show some life at the plate, scoring 11 and 7 runs respectively in back-to-back wins. I like Chicago to keep picking up their base runners today. The Cubs are now 27-8 in home games in May over the last 3 seasons and we'll continue to ride this wave.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8½
Reason: San Francisco is built to be a team under the total, with a shaky offense ranked 12th in the NL in runs scored, and sensational pitching. They just ripped off a 10-1 stretch under the total, including losses of 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0. The Giants face a Colorado pitcher here that they've never seen, Jhoulys Chacin, but counter with a young ace in Jonathan O. Sanchez (1.85 ERA). He has fanned 33 in 24 innings, so look for another low scoring San Fran game. Play the Rockies/Giants Under the total.
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Twins -170
The Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano is pitching the way he did prior to his Tommy John elbow surgery. Liriano pitched eight scoreless innings and struck out ten batters, leading the Minnesota Twins to a 2-0 win over the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night. Liriano has clearly regained his dominating form and I don't see Cleveland doing much damage with the bats in this game. Liriano beat Cleveland on April 21, holding them to no runs in eight innings and I expect another strong performance here. The Indian's starting pitcher David Huff has not been pitching very well. Huff began the season with a 1.50 ERA but it has since climbed in every outing this season and is now at 4.10. Huff was 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in four starts against Minnesota last season and I expect the Twins to get to him here. The Twins are 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Play on Minnesota.
JR O'Donnell
1* Phillies +120
Jr. O has the bases swagger to roll with and play on the 13-10 Phillies @ home today as this is a huge statement game by the Boys from the city of brotherly love. Yes the Phillies are running out aging (2-2, 5.+ ERA). J. Moyer who will not be the public side here tonight This is huge gut play for our camp as the -130 line for the Mets is way way too cheap. We note that J Moyer has been pounded @ CBP (0-4 last 5 and a poor 7+ ERA) while Johan Santana brings a 3-1 and 2+ ERA. The Phillies finally knocked the cover off the baseball Saturday 13 hits and 9 runs and that momentum carries over tonight vs. the Mets. We will roll the Phillies tonight with the crafty J Moyer as they find a way to win tonight.