James Patrick Sports
Canadiens vs. Penguins
The Montreal Canadiens are just (1-7) in their past (8) meetings with the "Steel City's" representative to the NHL and the Penguins are a solid (5-0) in Sunday action and have won at amazing rate of (50-23) at home in the Igloo. Our Sunday NHL Playoff selection is Pittsburgh Penguins.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
I went against the Padres last night (backing Gallardo) and won 2-1. I NEVER expected that good of a game by Latos but Gallardo was terrific and for ONCE, Hoffman didn't blow the save (see Tue and Wed). The San Diego loss was just the team's THIRD in its last 15 overall and its first at home since April 15. I'm switching sides today and backing the Padres. Let's remember that Milwaukee entered last night's game having lost SEVEN of its last eight, including four straight losses in which the team had hit just .220 while getting outscored 25-8. Yesterday's 2-1 win was hardly a "break out" performance. Randy Wolf takes the mound for Milwaukee, in his 12th season. Wolf's 11th year was a charm in 2009 (second stint with LAD), as he went 11-7, 3.23 with LA going 22-12 (plus-$770) in his 34 starts (11th-best vs ML among all starters). Wolf's pitched well for Milwaukee so far (2-1 with a 3.34 ERA / team is 3-2) and went 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 21 starts for San Diego in 2008, before getting traded to Houston. The Padres counter with Jon Garland. Garland was a so-so pitcher for the White Sox his first five seasons but then won 18 games in back-to-back seasons in 2005 (year Sox won World Series) and 2006. He went 10-13 (4.23 ERA) in 2007 and then signed a free agent deal with the Angels. He was 14-8 in 2008 but his ERA of 4.90 and his 237 hits allowed in less than 200 innings were not what the Angels expected. Garland was off to Arizona in 2009 and finished the year in LA with the Dodgers. San Diego is his FOURTH team in three years and he was the team's Opening Day starter in 2010. He's proved critics wrong in the early going of 2010. San Diego’s pitching staff has been among the best in majors with a 2.88 ERA and Garland (2-2, 2.57 ERA) has been a major contributor. He's 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA as the Padres have won his last three starts, after an outstanding effort in Tuesday's 4-1 at Florida. He threw 30 pitches in the first inning but then retired 12 straight at one point and matched a career high with 10 strikeouts. He returns home where he's allowed just one ER in 12 innings (0.75 ERA), as the team has won both games. The Padres are 9-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents on average, 4.83-to-2.17 RPG. I'm backing Garland and San Diego in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +9½ over ATLANTA
This line suggests the Bucks are out done but so did the last line in Atlanta and so did the series price before this match-up got underway. What is true is that the Bucks played probably its worse game of the year in that closeout game in Milwaukee on Friday. They could not have played worse and the interesting thing is that the Hawks played like garbage too, especially in the first half but the Bucks were just worse. All the pressure now shifts on the Hawks and this is a team that does not respond well to pressure. Man for man, the Hawks are obviously much-more talented but it takes a lot more than talent to move on. This is a team that does not share the rock often, instead, individually, every player wants to be the hero. This line is also an insult to the Bucks and they’ll use it to motivate them even more. Not that they need more motivation but they’ve been resilient as hell all year long so don’t expect them to go down quietly here. Bucks were absolutely brutal in the last game and will very likely keep this ne scary close and may even pull the upset. Play: Milwaukee +9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
SAN DIEGO +1.00 over Milwaukee
Every year after the first month you'll see some flukes. On the player scale, and on the team scale. On this date last season, for example, the Blue Jays were 16-10, the Rockies were 10-15 and the Rays were 9-16. It wouldn't have taken a superior level of expertise for one to predict that those courses would reverse themselves over the remainder of the year. So it would be easy to look at the San Diego Padres' current record of 15-9 and write it off as insignificant. Just a minor statistical quirk that, come July, will be all but forgotten. That’s not to say the Padres are for real. They have a lot left to prove. But hey, if nothing else, they've earned the record they've put up. And they've earned it by scoring 107 runs and allowing 90, for a run differential of +17 that ranks in MLB's top ten. Last season, the Padres struggled to score, and they struggled to prevent. So far, against an unimpressive but by no means easy slate of opponents, they've managed to produce at a decent clip while posting the fourth-best ERA in the National League. The big keys? A shutdown bullpen and a talented defense while the Brewers have none of that. Randy Wolf got a win over Pittsburgh in his last start but not because he pitched well. The Pirates got 10 hits, stranded 14 runners and Wolf was pitching with a big lead. The Padres are 9-3 at home, the Brewers are 10-14 overall and when you consider everything that’s occurred in the first month, there’s no way Milwaukee should be favored. Play: San Diego +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +2.25 over LOS ANGELES
Jeff Karstens came up with a very surprising quality start last week when the Pirates needed it desperately. Pittsburgh had just lost eight in a row and was outscored by an incredible count of 55-12 when they called up Karstens to pitch the finale in Milwaukee. Karstens limited the Brewers to two runs on six hits in 6.2 innings and although he didn’t get the win the Pirates did and the team subsequently won the next two as well. Karstens is one of those guys that got his start in the AL and while he’s never had success, pitchers switching from the AL to the NL often do. He looked good vs the Brewers and perhaps he can duplicate that against the Dodgers. More than that however, is the tag we’re taking back against Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda had an outstanding April but he also had an unsustainable 87% strand rate and this is just one game. We’ve seen a large amount of big dogs winning this year and wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see this one come through too. The Pirates have a ton of team speed and can make life miserable with it once they get on. This venue plays right into that, as hits and runs are hard to come by, thus, manufacturing runs can often be the difference between winning and losing. Play: Pittsburgh +2.25 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.62 over ATLANTA
The Braves are among the worst teams in the league in just about every category and while they won big yesterday, expect a lot less from them today. Over the last dozen games the Braves are hitting .239. They have numerous “easy outs” in their lineup, which gives the opposition a chance to pitch around anyone that’s a threat in scoring situation. Derek Lowe is a one-pitch pitcher and when his sinker isn’t working he’s useless. Lowe is now 36 years old and has a ton of miles on his pitching arm. He’s walking a lot of batters this year (16 in 28 frames) and that’s starting to become an issue. Lowe also comes in with an ERA near 6 and an unimpressive WHIP of 1.54. The Astros are below average in everything too, however, they’re not the one’s laying a ridiculous 8-5. Bud Norris is very capable of throwing a gem and against this line-up that’s a distinct possibility. In his only road start of the year in at St. Louis, Norris struck out nine Cards and did not allow a single run in five innings. The line-up he’ll face here is a very beatable one and the tag just adds to that great appeal. Play: Houston +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +1.46 over OAKLAND
Ben Sheets is a fraction of the pitcher he was when he pitched for the Brewers. He’s benefitted somewhat from throwing at pitcher-friendly Oakland but his two road starts tell the story of this guy’s troubles. In two road starts he’s allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in 10 frames. Sheets is no longer the strikeout guy he used to be either. He’s walked (14) as many batters this year and he’s struck out. His WHIP is an alarming 1.74 and his BAA on the road is .413. Furthermore, the A’s offense leaves plenty to be desired and they sure won’t have it easy here against the always reliable and usually dominant Shaun Marcum. Marcum does not have a win yet this year, which is a complete crime when you consider he’s pitched as well as anyone if the game. That fact should only motivate the Jays more here. He’s thrown seven full innings in four of his five starts and overall in 34 innings, he’s allowed just 27 hits, whiffed 28 while walking just seven batters. Every stat on this guy is Halliday-like, including his ability to induce ground balls. Marcum gets some justice today and the Jays should score plenty of Sheets. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.03 over SEATTLE
Doug Fister has outstanding numbers this year but a regression is inevitable, as this guy is truly about as average as they come. He’s a back-end starter that wasn’t even assured a spot in the rotation but do give him credit for being opportunistic. Thing is, he’s faced the A’s twice, the O’s once and the White Sox once and that quartet is at the bottom of every offensive category. The White Sox have since woken up but at the time they faced Fister they were still asleep. He’s also pitched twice at home and that has helped his numbers tremendously. C.J. Wilson's transition to the starting rotation has gone smoother than anyone could have expected. He's striking out nearly a batter per inning and consistently pitching deep into games. Unlike Fister, he’s faced some tough opposition. His four starts thus far have been againsty the Jays, Yanks, Red Sox and White Sox and he pitched well in all of them. In fact he’s allowed a total of just five runs in four starts and did not allow a run in two of those four starts. Furthermore, the Rangers are warming up with four wins in its last five and that includes the first two of this series. By contrast, the Mariners have dropped six of its last eight and really have no advantage at all. Play: Texas +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.20 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
Ok, the Sharks won the first game of this series but so what. They jumped out to a very quick 3-0 before the Red Wings woke up and outscored them 3-1 the rest of the way. San Jose also got a ridiculous break near the end of the second period when a zebra nailed Valterri Filppula for high sticking when in fact, he was the guy that was cut and got a stick in the face. That call set up a 5 on three and resulted in the Sharks scoring the winning goal. There’s not a team in the league more adept at winning a playoff game after losing the previous one. The Red Wings make all the right adjustments and again, the Sharks are just not playoff tough. There’s no chance of San Jose scoring three first period goals in the first 10 minutes and while they surely can win this game, the Red Wings offer up so much more value than the Sharks as a favorite. The +1.75 adjusted series price is very tempting but if the Sharks win, the series price will be large and we’ll step in then. Play: Detroit +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Stryker
ATLANTA (-) over Milwaukee
If you plan on fading a home team in game seven of a playoff battle, you better have a darn good reason. According to my NBA database, game seven hosts in any round are an outstanding 35-10 SU and 26-17-2 ATS dating back to the 1990-91 season including a blistering 24-5 SU and 21-8 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .650 or less! Obviously, Atlanta fits both parts of this situation.
In game six, the Hawks elevated their defensive intensity in the third quarter and limited the Bucks to three buckets in 17 attempts. Head Coach Mike Woodson knows Atlanta will need another strong defensive performance from his troops to make it to the second round.
The fact that this game is being played inside Philips Arena is huge for the Hawks. At home, Atlanta is a noteworthy 73-21 SU and 56-36-2 ATS including a phenomenal 40-7 SU and 34-13 ATS in this role checking in with momentum off a SU and ATS win.
After dropping three straight in this series, the Hawks rebounded with a monster victory in game six. Here comes one more. Take Atlanta.
Tony George
Jazz vs. LA Lakers
Play: Under 200
The Last 7 in this series have gone Under, and all 4 games this year. Look for a tighter one again tonight in LA. A trend play but I like the total to land on 192 on my power ratings, a 7 point overlay guys.
TEDDY COVERS
Reds @ Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals -1.5
Somehow, some way, Aaron Harang still has a decent reputation as a major league pitcher. There’s no question that Harang was a solid pitcher a few years ago, winning 16 games and notching more than 200 strikeouts in both 2006 and 2007. But after dealing with Reds manager Dusty Baker’s inability to manage a starting staff appropriately, Harang has a 13-34 record dating back to the start of the 2008 season.
Prior to his last start against the light hitting Astros, Harang had notched a grand total of one win in his last 20 trips to the hill, dating all the way back to last May. Yes, he was the Reds opening day starter, but that fact that speaks more about Dusty Baker’s starting rotation this year than Harang’s abilities at this stage of his career. The Reds went 0-4 in Harang’s first four starts of 2010, outscored 39-17 in those ballgames.
That stands in sharp contrast to Chris Carpenter’s numbers. The Cardinals are 4-1 this year in Carpenter’s five starts through the weekend and 17-5 in his last 22 regular season starts dating back to last July. In four starts against the Reds last year, Carpenter was on the right side of 3-1, 10-1, 5-2 and 13-0 St Louis victories. Rather than lay the high price with the favorite, I’ll recommend a run line play here. Take St Louis (-1.5 RL)
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Blue Jays -159
The A's are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. The A's are 0-4 in Sheets' last 4 starts as an underdog. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Toronto on the Money Line.
Wunderdog
Minnesota Twins -160
Look out because Francisco Liriano is back. He's 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and looks eerily similar to how he did in 2006 when he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Twins are 9-7 on the road this season thanks to great pitching. Their bullpen has posted a 2.92 ERA on the road. This spells trouble for a Cleveland team that is averaging just 3.6 runs per game (3.4 vs. LHP). I like the Liriano and the Twins to get it done here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -108
Off back-to-back home losses to the Rangers, look for the M's to salvage a game in this series behind Fister, who is 2-0 with an ERA of just 0.60 at home. The Mariners are 18-6 in their last 24 games as a home favorite. They are also an impressive 12-3 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since the beginning of last season. Take Seattle.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -107
Detroit has now won 4 straight games after Damon's walk-off home run last night. This team is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and they are showing excellent value again Sunday. It's easy for a team to let up on a winning streak like this, but that won't be the case tonight with Verlander on the mound. Justin Verlander was one of the AL Cy Young candidates last season, and after a slow start this season he'll be hungry to go get a win for his team today. Verlander has always been bad in the month of April, but now that we're into May he should get right back on top of his game as he always does.
This play also falls under a system that is 49-14 (78%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Bet Detroit to get their 5th straight win.
O.C. Dooley
Pirates / Dodgers Over 8.5
According to the oddsmakers who posted a high total of 9 runs last night, these two teams were supposed to play above the sport especially since Los Angeles sent rookie Carlos Monasterios to the mound for his major league debut as a starter. Even though Monastrios pitched only 4 innings, the Pirates struggling offense was held to only ONE run on the scoreboard. Speaking of ONE run it was exactly one week ago last Sunday when the Dodgers offense reached a season-low point suffering a 1-0 shutout setback at Washington. With both of today’s starting pitchers sporting relatively low ERA’s you must be wondering at this point why I am going against the grain and predicting the OVER. One of the reasons is because today marks only the second start of the season for Jeff Karstens (Pittsburgh) and just the second HOME start of the campaign for Hiroki Kuroda (Los Angeles). For those who get to watch today’s game keep an eye out for outfielder Andre Eithier who is now batting above the .400 mark at Dodger Stadium producing a grand total of 5 homers and 14 RBI. With slugger Manny Ramirez on the disabled list and Matt Kemp getting blasted earlier this week by the team General Manager in a radio interview, it is imperative that the Dodgers get big production from one of their outfielder. The bottom line is that in the past two days Los Angeles has plated a combined TWELVE runs which is in stark contrast to the prior 5 contests where they came up with just 8 runs combined. In the projected Pittsburgh lineup at the beginning of the season the cleanup hitter was slated to be veteran catcher Ryan Doumit. Going into last night’s contest Doumit was batting a phenomenal .471 during a ten-game hitting streak where he had driven in 8 runners on base. Even though Pittsburgh has struggled to score runs in this series, my database research indicates that the Pirates long term have played OVER the total at a 61% clip (46-29) when off consecutive contests where “three or less” runs crossed the plate. Here is a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (85-45 past five years with a posted total of 7-to-8’ runs) which plays teams NATIONAL LEAGUE teams like the Dodgers with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of below the 2.71 mark OVER the total. This 66% system applies in the month of May so check all calendars