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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 23,2010

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

L.A. Lakers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) at Phoenix (8-4 SU and ATS)

The Suns, perhaps the hottest team in the NBA in the two-month stretch preceding the Western Conference finals, now find themselves in a must-win game as they return to U.S. Airways Arena for Game 3 of this best-of-7 series against the defending champion Lakers.

Phoenix was on a 22-4 SU roll (19-6-1 ATS) heading into this series, but allowed the Lakers to break 120 points in each of the first two games, including Wednesday’s 124-112 loss as a 7½-point underdog. The Suns tumbled despite five players scoring in double figures, led by Jason Richardson (27 points) and Grant Hill (23), and despite Steve Nash doubling up with 11 points and 15 assists.

Los Angeles again shot lights out from the field in Game 2, hitting 57.7 percent (45 of 78) while the Suns shot 49.4 percent, this after outshooting the Suns 58 percent to 49.4 percent in Game 1. Pau Gasol had 29 points and nine rebounds in Wednesday’s win, and Kobe Bryant followed up a 40-point Game 1 effort with 21 points and 13 assists as six Lakers reached double-digit scoring.

Los Angeles is 5-1 SU and ATS in its six meetings with Phoenix this season. The Lakers have won nine of the last 11 SU in this rivalry and is 11-4 ATS in the last 15. The home team has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings, and the chalk is on a 5-1 ATS swing. Still, L.A. has gone 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to the desert. These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS).

The SU winner is 13-1 ATS in the last 13 Lakers-Suns clashes (6-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 12 of Phoenix’s playoff games and in 21 in a row overall for the Suns, and the SU winner is 10-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ dozen playoff games this year.

Los Angeles is 26-20 (20-25-1 ATS) on the road this season (3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), winning SU and ATS in its last three on the highway, first to close out Oklahoma City in Game 6 in the first round, then taking Games 3 and 4 of a sweep against Utah. Phoenix is 36-10 (29-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, winning its last four SU and ATS after dropping the first-round opener against Portland.

The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 overall (5-0 last five), 6-1 following a SU win (5-0 last five), 5-1 in conference finals starts (4-0 last four), 7-2 as a playoff pup and 17-8 after three or more days rest. That said, they’re just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 starts after a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday contests.

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last seven conference finals outings (0-4 last four), 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-14-1 ATS after a break of three days or more. On the flip side, they still own a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 33-13-1 overall, 16-4-1 at home, 7-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 as a playoff chalk and 40-19-2 as a home favorite.

Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 8-1-1 overall (5-0-1 last six), 4-1 as a visitor, 6-2 as a chalk, 5-0-1 after a SU win and 4-1 in the conference finals going back to last season. Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 after a three or more days off, 8-0 after a road trip of seven or more days, 6-2 after a non-cover and 15-7 as a playoff chalk, but the under is 9-4 in the Suns’ last 13 games following a double-digit defeat.

Finally, the total sailed over the posted price in Games 1 and 2, and the over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these Pacific Division rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

INTERLEAGUE

Detroit (24-19) at L.A. Dodgers (25-18)

Hiroki Kuroda (5-1, 2.87 ERA) goes after his fourth straight victory when he tries to lead the red-hot Dodgers to a sweep of the Tigers and Rick Porcello (3-4, 5.93) in the finale of a three-game interleague series at Dodger Stadium.

Los Angeles has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 4-1 and 6-4, improving to 17-4 in its last 21 games, including 11-1 in the last 12. The Dodgers have also won 11 of 14 at home during their 17-4 run, stretching their record to 15-7 at Dodger Stadium. On top of that, L.A. is on upticks of 14-3 against right-handed starters, 21-6 versus righties at home, 8-1 versus winning teams and 4-1 on Sunday.

Despite winning the first two games of this series, Joe Torre’s squad remains in interleague slumps of 31-52 overall and 8-20 against the A.L. Central.

The Tigers have lost consecutive games for the first time since a getting swept in a three-game series in Minnesota on May 3-5. Detroit has also now lost six of nine on the road and eight of 10 in National League ballparks. On the positive end Jim Leyland’s club is on impressive runs of 9-3 on Sunday, 9-4 in the third game of a series, 53-25 in interleague action overall and 42-21 when facing right-handed starters in interleague play.

These teams met two years ago in Motown, and Detroit swept a three-game series, outscoring Los Angeles 22-11. Prior to that, the Dodgers had won five of six from the Tigers in two separate series in 2003 (road) and 2005 (home).

Porcello threw a gem against the Yankees on May 12, scattering four hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings en route to a 2-0 victory. However, he regressed on Tuesday against the White Sox, yielding four runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 6-2 home loss. The Tigers are just 2-5 in Procello’s seven starts this season, and the right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.88 ERA in three starts.

Going back to last season, Detroit has dropped Porcello’s last four starts on the highway and four of five when he works on Sunday. However, they went 4-0 in Porcello’s four interleague contests last season, with the then-rookie allowing just five earned runs in 23 2/3 innings (1.90 ERA).

Kuroda surrendered three runs on seven hits in six innings of a 7-3 home win over Houston on Tuesday – the seventh time in eight starts this season that he’s given up three earned runs or fewer. Los Angeles is 7-1 in back of Kuroda this season, including 4-0 in his last four starts. Additionally, the Dodgers are 20-8 in the right-hander’s last 28 home games, including 4-0 this season with Kuroda going 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA.

On the downside, L.A. has lost eight of Kuroda’s last 11 Sunday starts and four of his last five against the American League. He has never faced the Tigers.

Detroit carries a slew of “under” trends, including 8-3-1 overall, 5-0 in the third game of a series, 6-2-1 versus right-handed starters, 15-7-1 in N.L. parks and 18-8-1 against the N.L. West. However, with Porcello starting, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 in the third game of a series.

For Los Angeles, the under has hit in nine of 14 overall, four of five on Sunday, six of eight against winning teams, 12 of 18 interleague home games and six of nine against the A.L. Central. However, the over is 9-4 in its last 13 at Dodger Stadium, and the over is 9-2 in Kuroda’s last 11 starts overall (4-0 in his last four home outings.)

Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of 11 meetings since 2003, including four of the last six.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

N.Y. Yankees (26-17) at N.Y. Mets (21-23)

A couple of former Cy Young Award winners square off in the rubber match of the Subway Series at Citi Field, with CC Sabathia (4-2, 3.43) set to take the ball for the Yankees while the Mets counter with Johan Santana (3-2, 3.72) in a nationally televised contest.

The Yankees snapped a three-game losing skid with Friday’s 2-1 series-opening victory, but the Mets bounced back with a 5-3 victory on Saturday, ending a four-game losing skid to their Subway Series rivals.

The Yankees are just 2-5 in their last seven games and 5-9 in their last 14 (2-5 on the road). That said, the defending world champs are still riding a slew of positive streaks, including 102-48 overall, 10-3 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East), 8-2 in interleague road games, 4-1 when favored against N.L. teams, 53-22 as a favorite overall, 36-17 against losing teams, 47-22 versus left-handed starters and 15-7 on Sunday.

Since ending April with a season-best eight-game winning streak, the Mets have posted a 7-14 record in May. They’ve lost eight of their last 11 overall, four of six at home, six of seven interleague games (all at home, all against the A.L. East), 20 of 42 as an underdog and five of six on Sunday. On the positive end, Jerry Manuel’s squad is on runs of 5-2 against left-handed starters, 6-2 as a home underdog and 9-4 when facing lefties at home in interleague play.

Since the start of last season, the Yankees have won six of eight against the Mets, including the four of the last five (all at Citi Field). Going back to 2008, the Yanks are on a 6-2 roll when playing in Queens.

Sabathia bounced back from a 6-0 loss at Detroit in which he allowed all six runs in six innings with a strong showing against the Red Sox on Tuesday, allowing just a run on four hits in seven innings. The veteran left-hander departed with a 5-1 lead but the bullpen couldn’t hold it and the Yankees eventually fell, 7-6.

Sabathia struggled in his last two road starts at Detroit and Boston (nine runs allowed in 10 2/3 innings), and he’s now 2-2 with a 4.58 ERA in six starts on the highway. Still, behind Sabathia, the Yanks remain on hot streaks of 20-6 overall, 11-4 on the road, 10-3 as a road favorite and 4-1 on Sunday. Also, Sabathia has faced the Mets twice, going 2-0 with a miniscule 1.20 ERA.

Santana has been outstanding in his last two trips to the mound – both on the road – going seven innings in each contest while holding the Marlins and Braves to a combined three runs (two earned) on 11 hits and three walks. However, he had nothing to show for it as the Mets lost 2-1 in Florida and 3-2 in Atlanta.

The Mets are 4-1 in Santana’s five starts at home, where he’s 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA. But they’ve lost five of his last six against A.L. opponents and five of his last six on Sunday. Last June, he faced the Yankees once at Yankee Stadium and got destroyed, allowing nine runs on nine hits in three innings of a 15-0 loss. Prior to that, Santana had gone 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career regular and postseason appearances (nine starts) against the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees have stayed under the total in five of six road games and four of five against southpaw starters, but they’re also on “over” runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 in interleague action (all against the N.L. East), 10-4-1 versus losing teams and 6-2 on Sunday. Also, with Sabathia on the mound, the over is on stretches of 18-4 on the road, 7-0 on Sunday and 6-2 in the third game of a series.

The over is 8-2 in the Mets’ last 10 home games, 12-4-1 in their last 17 interleague contests against lefty starters and 4-1 in their last five on Sunday. From there, however, they’re on “under” runs of 4-2 overall, 6-3-1 in interleague play, 8-3 when hosting A.L. opponents, 5-2-1 in Santana’s last eight starts overall, 6-1 in his last seven as a ‘dog and 3-1-2 in his last six interleague contests.

Finally, these rivals have stayed under the posted total in seven of their last 11 clashes overall and seven of the last nine at Citi Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:13 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

LA Lakers at Phoenix
The Lakers are coming off a 124-112 win in Game 2 and look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. LA is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2 1/2)

Game 511-512: LA Lakers at Phoenix (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.444; Phoenix 124.837
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 225
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2 1/2); Over

MLB

NY Yankees at NY Mets
The Yankees look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-3 loss and build on their 10-1 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 11 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Yankees are the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.090; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.903
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Over

Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.647; Cleveland (Huff) 14.767
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over

Game 905-906: Baltimore at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 14.142; Washington (Lannan) 15.055
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 907-908: Boston at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.647; Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.389
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-240); Under

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.235; Houston (Norris) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Silva) 15.576; Texas (Wilson) 16.550
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-165); Under

Game 913-914: Florida at Chicago White Sox (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.603; White Sox (Garcia) 14.576
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-140); Under

Game 915-916: Colorado at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.288; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.592
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Under

Game 917-918: Milwaukee at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.734; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.649
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.525; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.879
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over

Game 921-922: San Francisco at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.939; Oakland (Sheets) 13.752
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

Game 923-924: San Diego at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.079; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.945
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Under

Game 925-926: Detroit at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.436; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.707
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145); Over

Game 927-928: Toronto at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 16.022; Arizona (Buckner) 14.598
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Over

Game 929-930: NY Yankees at NY Mets (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.007; NY Mets (Santana) 15.234
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under

NHL

San Jose at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to close out the series and take advantage of a San Jose team that is 2-6 in its last 8 games as a playoff underdog. Chicago is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-170)

Game 65-66: San Jose at Chicago (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.164; Chicago 13.293
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-170); Over

WNBA

Chicago at Indiana
The Sky look to bounce back from yesterday's loss Indiana and take advantage of the Fever's 1-5 ATS record in their last 6 home games. Chicago is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7 1/2)

Game 601-602: Washington at Connecticut (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.596; Connecticut 111.996
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 6 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Atlanta at New York (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 108.815; New York 114.701
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6; 160
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 164
Dunkel Pick: New York (-2 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Chicago at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 109.660; Indiana 113.105
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7 1/2); Over

Game 607-608: Tulsa at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 105.743; Minnesota 115.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 162
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Under

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:32 am
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Marc Lawrence

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles conclude their three game series with the Senators Sunday when they send Kevin Millwood to the mound against John Lannan in a matchup of right-handers in the nation's capitol. Millwood toes the rubber knowing he is 13-1 in his last 14 team starts against the Senators/Expos franchise. He's also 12-6 in his last 18 team starts in May and 4-1 in his last five team starts this season. On the flip side, Lannan is in lousy KW form with eight walks and five strikeouts in his last three starts and is also just 5-10 in his career team starts during May. Too many good numbers to overlook here. Back the Birds.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:40 am
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John Ryan

Los Angeles Angels at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

5* graded play on Anaheim as they take on the Cardinals set to start at 2:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game. We had another great day yesterday in all sports going a perfect 4-0. Celtics, UNDER Red Sox w/Dice-K?s 1 hitter, 15* UNDER Flyers/Bruins, and 5* member pick on the Angels. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 56-43 making 27.1 units since 2004. Play against NL home teams with a low on-base percentage =1.550. The Angels are coming into the form that was expected in Spring training. Evidence of this is the that they have hit 10 of their 43 home runs during the last 7 games. Also, the bullpen has posted a 3.45 ERA and a 1.277 WHIP over their past 7 games versus a season ERA of 5.19 and Whip of 1.756. They are in a solid role noting they are 28-16 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 54% to 62% over the last 2 seasons; 43-22 (+23.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. Skipper Sioscia has done very well when facing a strong starting pitcher. He is a solid 20-10 (+14.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. Take the Halos.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:41 am
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MTi Sports

New York Yankees at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Mets are 0-7 when Johan Santana starts the last game of a three game series when they split the first two and the Yankees are 9-0 when CC Sabathia starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches. Finally, the Yankees are 10-0 in the last game of a series after a loss in which the opponents starter went six-plus innings. Take the pin-stripes.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:41 am
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Jeff Hochman

San Jose Sharks vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Play: Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks are up 3-0 in the series despite getting out-shot in every game. That is rare because Chicago has the best differential in shots taken and shots allowed. I mean it's not even close! I look for the Blackhawks to keep doing what they do, and that's being able to play at any pace and win. Keep in mind the Sharks are 0-7 all time in the Western Conf. Finals. They are done. Play Chicago!

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:42 am
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Steve Merril

Marlins vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8.5

The slumping Marlins offense wraps up their series with the White Sox on Sunday afternoon. Florida will face Freddy Garcia who is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA this season. He has won three straight starts beating the Tigers, Twins, and Royals. Garcia has given up just six runs over his last 19 innings of work. Jorge Cantu (1-10) and Cody Ross (0-2) both have poor numbers in limited at-bats against Garcia. Florida has gone Under in 14 of their 22 road games this season because they are hitting just .236 away from home while scoring just 3.5 runs per game away from Florida as well. Marlins ace Josh Johnson has been rolling as of late. He's 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three outings giving up just 11 hits in his last 20 innings pitched. The righty has been dominant in those games giving up just one run over his last two starts. Andruw Jones (4-17), Omar Vizquel (1-6), Alexis Rios (1-4), Paul Konerko (0-2), and Carlos Quentin (0-2) all have had a tough time with Johnson. The White Sox have gone Under in four of their last six and seven of their last 10 ballgames overall. Since both pitchers are in good current form, we expect a low-scoring game and recommend a play on the Under this afternoon.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:43 am
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Charlie Scott

Lakers vs. Suns
Play: Under 219

In a game where alot of things can go wrong at times, everything will have to go right for both teams to cash Over on such a high total like this. Generally the Lakers score fewer points and play at a slower pace on the road, but give a good effort on defense. If Phoenix wants back in this series, it will have to start by playing defense and rebounding.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:43 am
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Craig Trapp

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

Hot is an understatement as the LAD have won 14 of 16! Huge pitching mismatch here as Porcello has just not regained his rookie form. On the other hand Kuroda is absolutely just dominating lately winning 4 straight. Even better news the super hot bats of LAD get back Furcal today. The bats of the Tigers are just not the same on the road and today will be no different. Enjoy great value and another easy win.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:44 am
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Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees qualify in a road favorite system that is 18-5. What we want to do is play on certain road favorites if the total is 8 or less and they are off a road favored loss at -140 or more and lost by 2 or more runs and they scored 4 or less runs, provided their opponent is off a home dog win and scored 5 or more runs. The Mets took game 2 on Saturday, setting up tonight's rubber game. Looking at both teams in this situation we note that the Mets are a horrendous 0-6 in rubber games while the Yankees are 5-1. The Yankees score over 5 runs per game vs leftys this season, while the Mets struggle vs all pitchers, especially with runners in scoring position. In the pitching match up we have a real good one. CC. Sabathia goes for the Yankees and he has allowed 2 runs in 15 innings in his last 2 starts on the road vs the Mets. J. Santana takes the mound for the Mets and he has struggled at times this year. In his last start vs the Yankees he turned in one of his poorest performances of his career. Santana allowed 9 earned runs in just 3 innings vs the Yankees in a start that was very similar to his last road Sunday night ESPN start where he was shelled vs the Phillies. The Yankees are the better team and should win here tonight.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:44 am
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BIG AL

Colorado Rockies @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Colorado Rockies

It's been a frustrating season for AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. Greinke continues to go out and pitch brilliantly, if not quite as well as last season, but he's not getting any support and as a result it took him until May 13 to get his first win of the season. The Royals have only averaged a paltry 2.9 runs per game through Greinke's first nine starts and that has pretty much been responsible for his 1-4 record up to this point in the season. Rockies righthander Aaron Cook has seen his run support dwindle this season as well, but with an average of right around five runs per game, it's still a lot better than Greinke's. And Cook has been pitching much better lately, having surrendered only one run in seven innings in his last start, a no-decision at Wrigley Field. The American League has dominated inter-league play the past several seasons, but that rule didn't apply to these two teams in 2009. KC was just 8-10 against the NL in 2009, while Colorado was 11-4, the best inter-league record of any National League team and one of only five NL teams to have a winning inter-league record last season. Take the Rockies.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:45 am
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Oakland A's -105

We'll back the A's at a nice price at home this afternoon. Oakland has taken each of the first two games of this series, and I like its chances of pulling off the sweep when you consider the success Sheets has had against the Giants. Sheets has a 2.36 ERA and a WHIP of 0.918 lifetime against the San Francisco. He is 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) in his last 5 starts against the Giants, outdueling Sanchez, Zito, Lincecum and Cain in his last 4. Sanchez is having a solid season, but the Giants have dropped 3 of his last 4 starts. Plus, the Giants are only 7-19 in his last 26 road starts. The Giants have had trouble stealing wins on the road against quality opponents as they are just 18-38 in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also just 11-23 in their last 34 interleague road games. The Athletics are an impressive 68-33 in their last 101 interleague home games, and we'll back them at home here. Take the A's.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:46 am
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JIM FEIST

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: OAKLAND ATHLETICS

The Oakland A's look for a rare home sweep against their rivals from across the bay here on Sunday. The A's had lost seven of the last eight in this Bay Area Battle, but in this series they have held the Giants to just one run in the first two games, both wins for the A's. Ben Sheets starts today for the A's and while he is jsut 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA on the season, he has done very well against the Giants. Sheets has won four straight over the Giants, posting a lifetime 4-2 record with a 2.36 ERA. The Giants look to Jonathan Sanchez to put a halt to their losing streak. The southpaw is 2-3 on the season with a nifty 3.06 ERA but is 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA his last four outings. The Giants started the season hot but have really cooled off of late. The A's have momentum and I look for that to continue here on Sunday. Take the A's!

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 7:47 am
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SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +1.07 over WASHINGTON

Of all the pitchers in the majors that are winless, Kevin Millwood is the least deserving of them all. Here’s a guy that has not won a game in nine starts but he’s pitched well enough to win them all. With a little runs support he could easily be 6-1 or something like that. Millwood has struck out 48 batters and walked just 15 in 61 frames. He comes in with an ERA of 3.65 and in his nine starts he’s allowed three runs or less in seven of them. Over his last two starts he’s struck out 12 and walked one batter. Meanwhile, John Lannan rarely comes up with a good start. He allows a ton of runners and most of them get cashed in. Lannan has walked 23 batters and struck out just 15 in 43 innings and he’s also surrendered 56 hits for a BAA of .318. At home his BAA is .352 and he’s getting progressively worse. In fact, Lannan’s ERA this month is up to 6.89 in three May starts. John Lannan offers up nothing as a favorite and thus, win or lose, we’re absolutely going with the best of it. Play: Baltimore +1.07 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +2.16 over PHILADELPHIA

At the price it’s definitely worth taking a chance on the Red Sox. At least these Red Sox hitters are as familiar with Roy Halliday as anyone. Now, after making nine starts against NL opponents, Halliday will make his first start against an AL opponent this year and he might now have such great success. He’s just 14-14 against the Red Sox in his career with a 4.28 ERA, which suggests he almost always has difficulty with this intruder. He’s also coming off a 132-pitch performance against the Pirates in which the Phillies lost as a 3½-1 favorite. Halliday has surrendered 26 hits in his last three starts covering 22 innings and his pitch count over those three games has been 119, 121 and 126. It’s just May and Charlie Manuel is keeping Halliday in there way too long and at this rate he’s going to burn out his arm by September. Halliday has great numbers as usual but he’s also been fortunate with a very high 85% strand rate and he’s definitely a big risk here at better than 2-1. Tim Wakefield needs no introduction. He’s going to be throwing knucklers all day and he could come up with a gem, he could get smoked or he could be somewhere in the middle. You just never know what you’re going to get from Wakefield. However, we’ll live with whatever Wakefield delivers because the price on the Red Sox is just too good to pass up on. Play: Boston +2.16 (Risking 2 units).

TEXAS –1½ +1.27 over Chicago

Carlos Silva is 5-0 and the fact that this guy has not lost a game pitching for the Cubbies is a minor miracle. Now Silva will finally pitch in a hitter’s park and chances are he’ll get ruined. In three May starts he’s allowed 31 hits in 22.1 innings for a BAA of .337. He has an unsustainable 78% strand rate this year and his charmed life is going to end sooner rather than later. Silva has always been one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and it’s not going to take much to open the floodgates. The Rangers have won five of its last six games and C.J. Wilson has been a rock for them all season long. The Rangers are 6-2 when Wilson starts and overall he’s allowed just two bombs in 53 IP. Silva has allowed six in 48 IP. Wilson has tremendous numbers right across the board that include a BAA at home of just .215, a BAA in May of just .212, an ERA of 2.55 and an impressive 1.15 WHIP. Wilson also induces a ton of ground balls, he doesn’t walk many ands his chances of success are about 10 times better than Silva’s. Play: Texas –1½ +1.27 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 8:07 am
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James Patrick

Braves vs.Pirates Under

Today at PNC Park in the "Steel City" we look for a low scoring affair as Atlanta starter Kris Medlen has yet to allow more than (2) runs in a game and Bucs starter Chris Duke broke a (6) game win-less streak in his last outing.

 
Posted : May 23, 2010 8:08 am
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