Matt Fargo
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
This is another great situation for the Mets similar to last night where they were underdogs despite having a very equal matchup at starting pitcher. The Yankees won the opener of this series on Friday 2-1 as it finally got a good pitching performance out of Javier Vazquez. They had lost three straight prior to that and four of five with the pitching allowing a whopping 8.0 rpg over that span. The Mets picked up a much needed win last night and they are still a very solid 15-9 at home. Johan Santana had one horrible start this season as he allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings against the Phillies yet still has a 3.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP showing just how good the rest of his season has been. His last start against the Yankees last season was atrocious but if anything it is going to provide some extra motivation tonight. C.C. Sabathia is having a great season as well but the Yankees are just 5-4 in his nine starts, which is the same for the Mets and Santana so making him a big road favorite here is questionable. He has a 4.58 ERA on the road with New York going 3-3 in those games. The Mets are hitting .342 in their last 10 games against left-handed pitching while hitting .309 at home against southpaws. The Yankees are 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite of -110 to -150 while the Mets are 4-1 in their last five games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Mets are also 15-5 in Santana’s last 20 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 3* New York Mets
LARRY NESS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
What's going on here? The D'backs entered last Wednesday's game with the Giants having lost 10 of 14, getting outscored 88-46 while batting just .220 as a team. However, the D'backs would win that game 13-1, the first of what's now a four-game winning streak. The D'backs have scored 37 runs in their surge, never less than eight in any game (batting .326 in that span). For Toronto its the team's third straight road loss, after winning 14 of its first 20 away from home. Billy Buckner of Arizona has been in the majors (on and off) since 2007 but opened the 2010 season in the minors with his season debut coming this past Tuesday at Florida. He had a tough matchup vs Josh Johnson (Marlins haven't lost a home start by Johnson TY going 5-0), but pitched OK, allowing two ERs over five inning of an 8-0 loss. While his team is hot, Buckner draws a tough mound opponent in his second start of 2010 as well, Shaun Marcum. Marcum missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery but has returned to go 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in nine starts to open 2010. He's allowed just 46 hits in 62 innings and he's 3-0 over his last four starts (Jays are 4-0), posting a 1.61 ERA. Take the Blue Jays.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -157
After losing a slug fest 7-10 to the Angels yesterday, I expect the Cardinals to bounce back with authority Sunday behind Ace Chris Carpenter. Capenter is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.082 WHIP this season with 57 strikeouts in 61 innings. He has picked up right where he left off last year, and Carpenter is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA at home this season. Jered Weaver has been steady for the Angels, but he's been at his worst on the road this season where he has posted a 4.94 ERA in four starts away from home. The Cardinals are 11-1 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997. They are winning in these spots by 3.5 RPG on average.
This play also falls under a system that is 40-8 (83%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (LA ANGELS) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. This system has gone 5-1 this season. The Cardinals are 23-5 in Carpenter's last 28 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take St. Louis.
Greg Shaker
SF Giants/Oakland A's Under 7.5
Yes I know that this is a low number. However, we have not seen this number obtained in the last 4 games at this park including the first two of this series. This series is 8-2 UNDER the last 10 here at this park and of course we know about this venue right? Large Foul Grounds, large power allys. Ben Sheets is a Name Brand Pitcher and although his numbers have been down this year, they are pretty spiffy here in Oakland and his lifetime SF Stats are even better. The Bullpens have been a bit iffy of late and that concerns me a bit. But not enough and while My Own MLB Model shows more than 7.5 Runs, 55.2% of the time, I am going to Beg to Differ.
Toronto Bluejays/AZ Diamondbacks Over 9.5
This number is 10 at some books and OK at that number but I would rather pay more for the number posted. This park has been a nightmare for pitchers and we have seen some good one's come here and leave with their tail between their legs. The last 4 contests here including the two played between these two teams have seen 13. 14. 15, and 14. My Model has this one ending at 9.4 Runs interestingly but that is because of the Bluejays Thrower that has been hoofing it this year. Don't get me started on the AZ Bullpen, and the fact is, both Pens are somewhat strapped for this contest and that alone is going to more than likely give us some late game runs. Bargain Line I think.
Matt Rivers
Johan Santana at home plus money is never a terrible call. Yes CC Sabathia has electric stuff and lights out potential and the Yankees may be the best team in the game but come on?
Joe Girardi’s squad is badly beat up right now and easily can lose this game. Arod, Teixeira and Jeter certainly still form a phenomenal threesome but with the pitcher’s hitting and this game being at Citi Field to get anything back with Jerry Manual’s fairly talented crew is fine with me.
The Mets are not a great team by any means but with Reyes, Wright and Bay there are more than enough pieces in the fold for this team to really come around if Beltran can ever return to decent enough form.
This is the rivalry game of all rivalry games and truly very 50-50. I’m not saying the Yankees aren’t the overall better ballclub that will won 90 plus games in the end but tonight on the road and banged up leads me to believe that the Mets have a great chance to win this game and I will therefore grab whatever I can back.
Pick: NY Mets
Tony George
Kansas City -143
No hometown love for KC very often but I like the way KC has played with Yost as manager, and Greinke is on the hill today and gets a chance to win because KCs bullpen has finally shown up, and have a season low 3.33 ERA their last 3 games.
This is a rubber match and I like KC as well as the oddsmakers in this spot to take this series at home today. Cook for Colorado has over a 4 ERA on the season and Zach has a 2.72, but his record stinks with no bullpen and run support. I think he gets some help today and KC eaks out a tight one.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at New York Mets
We’re backing the Yankees tonight behind Sabathia, and the main reason is because of his success against the Mets. In two starts, Sabathia has allowed a combined two runs in 15 innings – good for a 1.80 earned run average. Santana owns a poor 2-5 team start record in interleague play, and will have to go up against one of the best lineups in all of baseball here. And CC really gets up for NL games, as he loves to swing the bat – meaning he needs to pitch well to get more AB’s. Lay the price here.
Play on: New York Yankees
Wunderdog
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½
The Red Sox today face Roy Halladay. Boston is averaging just 4.6 runs per game this season vs. RHP. The bad news for them is this is no ordinary right-hander. Halladay is 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA (1.36 at home). When facing a pitcher with good control (1.75 walks per game or less), the Sox are 24-11 UNDER the past two seasons. When facing a starter that goes over six innings per start, Boston is 30-12 UNDER over the same span. And, when on the road vs. a pitcher that strikes out 5+ batters per game, the Red Sox are 18-5 UNDER the past two seasons! The runs won't come easy for the Sawx today. Philadelphia's offense is also potent, but they actually score less at home then on the road. And, their offense has been struggling of late (4.0 per game in their last seven games and 2.5 per game in interleague play). I like this one to go UNDER the total.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Cubs +163
Excellent value Sunday with the Cubs behind the revived Carlos Silva. Silva is one of the few unbeaten starters left in baseball, going 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP this season and the Cubs are 7-1 in his eight starts. C.J. Wilson is coming off his worst outing of the season which could have him lacking confidence coming into this game for the Rangers. Wilson gave up 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4.1 innings against the Angels on May 18th. Silva is 7-0 (+7.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 games and they are giving up just 2.7 runs/game during this recent 7-game stretch. The Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Take Chicago on the Money Line.
Nite Owl Sports
Lakers / Suns Under 219
We like the UNDER here, because we believe this totals line of 219 is simply too high, having been overly influenced by the high scoring in games one and two in LA, and not taking into account enough that Lakers typically do not score as well away as at Staples Center. Whenever there is a line this high, usually all that it takes is one low scoring quarter (or even a prolonged dry spell during a quarter) for the game to stay under, provided it does not go to OT.
And there are also a few factors that favor the UNDER here, such as these two teams combining for (i) 17-28 to the UNDER and an average of 207 total ppg when playing on “long rest” of two or more days, (ii) 47-61 to the UNDER against other teams with a victorious % of > .500, and (iii) 42-52 to the UNDER after an LA win and a Phx loss.
But with us never being satisfied with just a few trends and stats to support our picks, and tending to emphasize the teams’ most recent play in their respective modes for the game at hand (taking into account factors such as game site, # of days of rest from the last game, and caliber of opposition), we checked the totals results for 12 combined “representative games” for both teams in their respective modes for this game (7 Phx home games vs “A” teams and 5 Laker roadies vs A teams) – more specifically, for Lakers we looked at their two regular season games in Phx, their two games at Utah last round, and their first round game 6 at Okie, while for Suns we looked at their two HGs last round vs SA, 3 late regular season HGs vs SA and (two) vs Jazz, and of course their two HGs TY vs LA. First, Lakers were 2-2-1 vs the total in their five roadies, with an average of 207 total points, while in their 7 HGs, Suns were 5-2 to the Over, with an average of 213 total points, which look like pretty good Over numbers until we add the fact that the totals line in this game is a high 219. And in the two games between these two in Phx, these two played a 221 point Over and a 198 point UNDER. Combining and averaging those totals results for both teams, and counting those two Lakers-Suns games in Phx just once each to avoid over-emphasis on same, we get no ATS edge for the UNDER, but we get a projected 210 total points being scored in this game, a full nine points below this inflated totals line of 219. That plus the overall support that we have for the UNDER is good enough to support a decent sized play on the UNDER in this game. However, due to the ever present threat of OT in this match-up, we have decided to split our UNDER picks on this game into at least two, with this two unit pick on the full game UNDER 219 being one of them.