Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday May, 27

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Cardinals put the wraps on a four-game series in St. Louis when Roy Halladay takes on Adam Wainwright at Busch Stadium Sunday afternoon. Halladay toes the rubber in fine KW form with 32 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last five starts knowing he is 15-6 in his last 21 team starts in May and 13-5 in his last 18 road team starts. With Wainwright sporting a 6.67 ERA at home this season, as opposed to 2.59 away, look for Wainwright to fall to 0-3 in his last three starts in this park against the Phillies here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

John Ryan

Thunder at Spurs
Prediction: Over

10* graded play OVER the posted total in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final pitting Oklahoma City taking on San Antonio set to start at 8:35 PM ET. These were the two best teams in the regular season based on wins and it stand to reason they would meet here in the Conference Final.

The flash stats for these two teams are comparable, but as you will see, the Spurs rely on a power game scoring points from the paint and significant ball movement than the Thunder. The Spurs rank first in the NBA averaging 103.5 points per game, first outscoring their opponents by an average of 7.9 points per game, and fourth averaging 23.1 assist per game.

The Thunder run far more isolation sets in the half court offense. They rank third in the NBA averaging 102.7 points per game, fourth outscoring opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game, and 29th averaging 18.4 assist per game.

Breaking the stats down further we see the Spurs rank fourth averaging 45.6 points in the paint per game and 10th averaging 13.9 fast break points per game. The Thunder are more dependent on taking advantage of the team quickness and speed advantages over opponents. They rank 11th in the NBA averaging 41.5 points in the paint per game and fifth averaging 16.2 fast break points per game.

The Spurs are a superior ball control type of team as compared to the Thunder. The Spurs ranked second in the NBA posting a 1.712 assists-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, the Thunder ranked 30th in the NBA posting a 1.173 assist-to-turnover ratio. The dominant difference is the high speed Thunder fast break does carry more turnover risk. Their point guard Westbrook has been prone to trying to create too much on drives to the rim and either taking low percentage difficult shots or turning the ball over. However, in the playoffs, Westbrook has done a far greater job and the team as a whole has improved significantly in this category. They are a much better ball control team than the numbers would suggest.

Westbrook is averaging just 1.7 turnovers per game and posting a 2.86 assists-to-turnover ratio, and a remarkable 1.21 steals-to-turnover ratio ranking best among starting point guards in the NBA playoffs by a significant margin. Augmenting his fine play, is Derek Fisher, who has averaged 20.8 minutes per game, 0.4 turnovers per game, a 2.00 assists-to-turnover ratio, and 2.00 steals-to turnover ratio. There is no doubt in my mind the Thunder?s hand speed and quickness will help them win the turnover battle leading to many fast break scoring opportunities.

The simulator shows a high probability that the Thunder and Spurs will combine to score more than 205 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-30 ATS for 67.4% winners since 2006. Play OVER the posted total with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 and after a game where they failed to cover the spread and is an extremely well rested team playing three or less games in 10 days.

The sim shows a significant probability that the Spurs will score 105 or more points. In past games, the Thunder are 13-1 OVER the posted total making 11.9 units per one unit wagered when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. The Thunder averaged 19.7 three point shot attempts per game this season. The Spurs are a solid 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) when facing teams who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game with the game taking place in the second half of this season.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds fit a system that has won 2 of 24 times and plays on home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs of they scored 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits and left 5 or more men left on base while committing 1 error. The Reds are 15-5 in day game sand 7-0 on Sunday. Colorado is 4-11 in day games and 1-6 on Sunday. Old man Moyer goes for the Rockies tonight and he is 0-4 with a 6.86 era on the road this season and has a 6.35 era vs the Reds. Matt Latos makes the start here today and he has a 3.18 era in his last 3 starts and has a pair of wins in his last 2 vs the Rockies going 15+ innings allowing just 3 runs. Look for the Reds to take this one today.

David Chan

New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics

The Yankees' (25-21) Hiroki Kuroda (3-6, 4.56 ERA) is set to square off against the A's (22-25) Tommy Milone (6-3, 3.75 ERA) on the mound this afternoon.

Kuroda gave up three runs, off seven hits with three walks in 5 1/3's frames of work in a 6-0 setback to the Royals on Monday. Kuroda has been particularly ineffective on the road this year, going 0-4 with a very pedestrian 6.23 ERA.

Milone gave up one run off five hits over seven frames of work in a 2-1 win over the Angels on Monday; he'd strike out three and walk one. So far Milone has looked pretty good in his first full season as a starter. And he's been unbeatable at home, going 4-0 with a minuscule 0.60 ERA in four starts this season.

With a victory, Milone will become the first pitcher in A's history to win his first five home starts since Dave Wickersham did it when the organization was located in Kansas City back in 1962.

Here's a chance for the A's to slow down the mighty Yanks, avenge yesterday's lacklustre 9-2 setback, and avoid the series sweep with what I deem the clearly superior starter anchoring their effort.

Milone offers excellent value in this matchup; consider a second look at the home side in this one!

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Matt Garza has struggled away from Wrigley and the Cubs are beyond dismal against lefties on the road. I'll back Erik Bedard and the Pirates finish off the series sweep.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks won the NL West last year and narrowly lost to the Brewers in the playoffs. This year they are chasing the red-hot Dodgers who are 11 1/2 games in front of the D'backs. Arizona beat Milwaukee ace Zack Grienke on Saturday, 8-5, and looks to take the series here on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Brewers not nearly the team they were last year with the departure of slugger Prince Fielder. Milwaukee sits fifth in the NL Central, seven games back of Cincinnati. Randy Wolf has struggled this season also, going 2-4 with a lofty 6.02 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Wolf had one of his better outings last time on the mound, allowing just three runs over seven innings, but the Brewers still lost the game to San Francisco, 4-3. Daniel Hudson will oppose for the Diamondbacks. Hudson is 1-1 with a 6.00 ErA and 1.61 WHIP. While neither of these pitchers will likely be around very long, I still like the home team here. The Brewers just aren't the same club this season and the Diamonbacks can still win at home.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Antonio/ Oklahoma City Over 204: I like the over in game 1 here. Both teams will just come out with a faced paced game plan an that should lead to a ton of points. San Antonio has averaged 106 ppg at home and they put up 105.7 ppg vs the Thunder this year. Oklahoma City has averaged 102.7 ppg on the year, including 100 ppg on the road. The Thunder will try to speed up the pace with a younger lineup featuring their three high-scoring players.Both teams have played good defense this year, but In game 1 I expect the offenses to shine as both teams hit the century mark with ease in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN ANTONIO -5½ over Oklahoma City

We really hate to give away 5½-points to one of the NBA’s best teams but this game one matchup warrants it for several reasons. The biggest one can be found by looking past the stars to the back-end rotation players. The Thunder will give major minutes to Derek Fisher, Daequan Cook, Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha. While Perkins and Sefolosha have defensive value, Nick Collison was the only player outside OKC's top four to post halfway respectable offensive numbers. Contrast that with what San Antonio brings to the table with Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. The Spurs bench is so good that DeJuan Blair can't even get on the court. Dig deeper and advantages start tilting more in the Spurs' favor, especially at the defensive end. The Thunder are athletic, play very hard and have a great shot-blocker behind them in Serge Ibaka. Nonetheless, they're not a great defensive team, ranking ninth in efficiency overall. Looking to the regular season, the Spurs won two of the three games even though Manu Ginobili missed all three. They won by pick-and-rolling the Thunder to death, leading to botched rotations and wide-open 3’s. In the three games, the Spurs shot a ridiculous 28-of-54 from long range. That was with Blair starting at power forward all three games and now that the Spurs play floor spacers Bonner and Diaw at the 4, they'll get the Thunder even more spread out on D. The Thunder still has some serious weapons at their disposal and can’t be counted out. However, in this battle of teacher vs. student, the students are about to get schooled. Play: San Antonio -5½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Washington +113 over ATLANTA

The Braves .207 BA over the last five games is the lowest mark in the NL. They’re also worse against lefties and will face a good one here in Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has won four starts in a row and already has six wins this season. Not only does he have a sparkling 1.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, but he has recorded 69 strikeouts in 54.2 innings and only one member of the Braves (Jack Wilson) has ever faced him. Nobody's talking about Gonzalez and he remains a little under the radar but he’s been one of the best pitchers this season with a BAA of .167. The Braves are a -120 favorite here because Brandon Beachy has been as close to unhittable as any pitcher in the game. Beachy has a 1.77 ERA and a BAA of .183. However, current Nats hitters have 16 knocks against him in 51 AB’s for a BA of .314. Also consider that the Nationals have taken the first two of this set to extend Atlanta’s losing streak to six games. A sizzling hot pitcher vs a cold team is always worth a look when being offered a price and that’s precisely the situation here. Play: Washington +113 (Risking 2 units).

CINCINNATI -1½ +126 over Colorado

Only two teams, the Twins and Cubs, have less wins than these Rockies. Colorado does not have a single pitcher they can rely on every fifth day to give them a better chance of winning than losing. Jamie Moyer looks like he could be a good one when he pitches in the old-timers game in about a year or two down the road and strikes out Willie Mays. The Rockies have lost all four of Moyer’s road starts this season and seven of his nine starts overall. This lefty has a 1.75 WHIP and is completely unable to pitch deep into games. Against the Reds, at Great American Ballpark, where HR’s are increased by a whopping 32% to righties, Moyer has almost no chance of success. At the age of 49, Moyer is a sideshow act. Meanwhile, the Reds have bolted into first place in the NL Central. They’ve won four of Mat Latos’s last six starts and one of the losses was by a score of 2-1. Latos is coming off a strong outing against the Braves in which he struck out eight and walked one. Latos has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and should be working rather comfortably here with a big lead. Fade Jamie Moyer whenever possible, as there isn’t going to be many more opportunities to do so. Play: Cincinnati -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).

ANTHONY REDD

Now let's turn to Sunday's free pick....

28-18-1 run with my comp plays with today's play on the Yankees.

Doesn't matter to me that this kid for Oakland, rookie Tommy Milone, is perfect at home this season (4-0; 0.60 ERA). My Yankees are smacking the ball again and have won four straight, taking the first two games in this series while scoring 15 runs.

That's a good month's worth of offense for Oakland.

The A's have plated just six runs while losing four straight.

The Yanks have won 8 in a row at Oakland. They've won 28 of the last 34 meetings with the A's overall. And I don't even have to play them on the run line in this spot because they're such a bargain on the moneyline.

I know Kuroda has really struggled for New York, but with a new team and new league I'm not really surprised. But he's a quality pitcher and he starts earning his money with a strong outing at Oakland today.

4♦ NY YANKEES

JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is the Yankees-Athletics Under the total with Kuroda and Milone on the mound.

Oakland struggled once again at the plate last night against C.C. Sabathia, as the A's have been limited to just 14 runs their last seven games.

Hiroki Kuroda may be the owner of a 4.56 season ERA, but six of his nine starts this year have stayed Under the total.

Tom Milone sports a 3.75 season ERA, and six of his nine season starts this year have also held Under the posted total.

Last game of this three game series before the Yanks head down the road to Anaheim, while Oakland travels to Minnesota. Look this to be a quickly pitched contest, and look for the runs to be limited.

Yankees-Athletics Under the total to close the series.

3♦ UNDER

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, I have won my last two picks with the Boston Red Sox rallying in the ninth inning Saturday.

For my pick today, let’s go with the Atlanta Braves to prevent the Washington Nationals from completing the three-game sweep.

In what will be a good pitching matchup, the Nationals are starting Gio Gonzalez. He has been outstanding with a 1.98 ERA and a WHIP of 0.988. He has a 6-1 record and one of the reasons the Nationals are in first place in the N.L. East.

But the Braves are starting Brandon Beachy, who has been dynamite this season. His ERA is 1.77 with a WHIP of 0.902. At home, he has been even better, with a 0.78 ERA and WHIP of 0.652.

At home he has been going into the eighth inning. So the bullpen should not be a factor here.

Runs are going to a premium here. The Braves average 5.4 runs a game at home, while the Nationals average 3.7 runs on the road.

Having won the first two games of the series, I expect the Braves to be more focused here, while the Nationals are not going to mail in the game. Being on the road and already winning the series, it would be natural for them to be a bit relaxed.

Take the Braves.

3♦ BRAVES

CRAIG DAVIS

Gonna side with the Dodgers and Chris Capuano on the bump.

They are simply too tough to beat at home, dropping only five games there all season long. Not only are they getting solid outings from pitchers like Capuano (6-1, 2.25 ERA), they're also hitting the ball to all fields and manager Don Mattingly is making all the right calls.

From when to take his starter out to when to suicide squeeze, Mattingly is starting to look more and more like the guy who needs to replace Joe Girardi someday in New York.The question is... would he even take it at this point?

The Dodgers feature an offense that is scoring 6 runs per game over the last month, not to mention the fact they are a little upset having dropped two games Thursday and Friday night.

On the other side you have the struggling Astros who, although they don't have a horrible overall record, are terrible on the road. Any win they can get away from home they should be counting their blessings.

Today they throw out lefty J.A. Happ and his near-5.00 ERA. He's seen his better days and is more than capable of coming out with a solid performance, but this is not the time nor the place to be messing around with him.

Take the Dodgers on the run line as your free play of the day and be glad you did.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS -1.5

DEREK MANCINI

For Sunday's freebie, I'm backing Cincinnati on the run line at home.

Colorado is 2-7 in Jamie Moyer's starts this season and the 49-year-old southpaw, one year removed from Tommy John surgery, sports a 7.56 ERA in his last five starts. On the road he's been brutal with an 0-3 record and 6.86 ERA in four outings after allowing nine hits and six runs in 3.2 innings at Miami on Monday.

The Reds rebounded from Friday's series-opening 6-3 loss that snapped a six-game win streak to score a season-high in runs in Saturday's 10-3 rout.

Cincinnati hurler Mat Latos is familiar with the Rockies as he went 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts against them last year while pitching for the Padres.

Latos started off slowly in a Cincinnati uniform, going 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in his first three outings. But he's since rebounded strong with a 3-0 record and 2.72 ERA in his last six trips to the hill. Latos is coming off a win against the Braves on Tuesday in which he allowed two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts over seven innings.

4♦ CINCINNATI -1.5

MATT RIVERS

Sunday's free play is the Over in Game One of the Thunder-Spurs series.

Just take a look at the series results of late and you will see why I calling for these two teams to put up some points, as each of the last four meetings between these Western Conference rivals have all gone Over the total.

In fact, the teams are 7-2-1 Over the total the past ten series showdowns, and once they shake off the down time they have both had, expect the points to come fast-and-furious.

Oklahoma City has played each of their last three playoff games Over the price, and they have been Over in five of the their last six playoff affairs.

San Antonio is only 2-2 Over their last four playoff games, but they can't really be blamed, as the Spurs have rung up triple digits in six of their eight playoff games contested.

Count on the Spurs getting to the triple digit mark once again, and count on this game going Over the total.

2♦ OVER