Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Angels -147
The Angels have won 5 in a row, and I expect them to keep their streak alive behind a strong performance from Wilson (5-4, 2.90 ERA). Wilson is clearly a better starter than Noesi (2-5, 5.26 ERA), who is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts. The Halos have won 4 of Wilson's last 6 starts, and he has held the opposition to 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. Wilson has also had a good deal of success versus Seattle. His teams have won 7 of his 10 career starts versus the M's, during which he has posted an ERA of 3.52. The Mariners are a lousy 33-68 in their last 101 games as an underdog and 14-37 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Angels are 39-16 in the last 55 meetings, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle. We'll take the Halos.
Tony George
Spurs -5
Vegas oddsmakers begging you to take the points with OK City here. The Spurs one of the hottest teams around and now well rested on the NBA's strongest home floor. I am drinking the kool aid here with San Antonio, as I think they will force some turnovers here against a turnover prone team who is by far playing the best team they have seen in the Playoffs in a very tough environment. Experience wins out here.
Harry Bondi
LA Dodgers -140
There are very few pitchers who are having a better season than the Dodgers Chris Capuano. We have been on the crafty lefty on the phone service all season long and have profited big time as he is 6-1. Vegas has shown him no respect as he has been an underdog several times including his last time out when we won with him as an underdog at Arizona. Today, we find him as a reasonable 140 favorite against a light hitting Houston team and will again back him. Batters are hitting only .201 against Capuano this year and he has lasted at least six innings in seven straight starts. In 14 career appearances against Houston, he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Take the Dodgers and the underrated Capuano.
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -180
The fourth place Rockies have struggled away from home because of weak pitching. They are on a long road trip, the end of a six game trip. 100-year old Jamie Moyer takes the hill and while he got a lot of publicity for getting an early win at his age, he's been pounded of late with a 1-2 record and a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts, lasting just five innings on average. Moyer suffered a loss Monday as the Rockies fell to the Marlins, 7-4. He pitched 3.2 innings and allowed six runs, nine hits and four walks to go along with five strikeouts. Cincinnati is a tough park to pitch in. The Rockies are 15-36 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record and 4-10 in their last 14 road games. They are also 11-23 in their last 34 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face Mat Latos, who has settled down with his new team and has a 3.10 ERA his last three starts fanning 19 in 17 innings. Cincy is playing well, winning seven of eight and the Reds are 22-10 in their last 32 games as a home favorite. Play the Reds.
Nite Owl Sports
San Antonio Spurs -5.5
The big overall question in this long-awaited showdown NBA Western Conference Finals is whether the Okie Thunder’s two stars (Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) plus super sub James Harden, who averaged 16.8 points in the regular season and was named the league's Sixth Man of the Year, can overcome the well balanced SA Spurs, who not only have a few stars of their own (Duncan, Parker and Ginobli) but fully utilize a 10 man rotation (something virtually unheard of in past playoffs) to wear down opponents and avoid having to play their 3 veteran stars excessive minutes. Spurs won two of the 3 games played between these two this season, including a pair of “wire to wire” victories in the two most recent ones, (i) by 11 in the only one of the 3 that was in SA, which Spurs led by 10 at HT, and (ii) by 9 in the most recent one, played in OKC on March 16, which Spurs led by 17 at HT. And since the start of the 2009 season, SA is 8-2 against Okie, with an average margin of 9.6 points. And since that series defining “upset” victory at Okie, the Spurs have swept both playoff opponents on the way to the conference finals and have reeled off 18 consecutive victories behind that deep and well balanced line-up (San Antonio has not lost since April 11). And San Antonio has been lighting it up from 3-point range in the playoffs, with Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Leonard each shooting better than 45 percent. As TY’s #1 three-point shooting team, the Spurs, hit 52.6% of their attempts behind the arc versus OKC this season. And SA enjoys huge advantages over OKC relating to assist/TO ratios, as the Spurs rank #2 in assist ratio compared to the Thunder’s last place ranking, and SA is the third best in turnover ratio while OKC ranked dead last.
OKC swept reigning league champion Dallas before taking out Kobe Bryant and the LA Lakers in five games. Three-time scoring champion Durant (the seventh player in league history to win three straight scoring titles and the first since Michael Jordan in 1996-98) has combined with side-kick Westbrook to average nearly 51 combined ppg in the post-season, giving the Thunder a lethal offensive combination and one-two punch that no team other than the 3 headed monster (two headed lately, w/o Bosh) of the Miami Heat can match. But Okie's hopes also hinge on bearded super sub James Harden, who averaged 16.8 points in the regular season and was named the league's Sixth Man of the Year. Big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins supply shot-blocking, rebounding and toughness, but both are limited offensively. Okie has slim advantages in offensive rebounding and effective field goal percentage.
As far as point spread tendencies are concerned, Spurs were 7-2 ATS TY at home against A-rated teams like Okie, with an average margin of 11 points, and 10-3 ATS as home faves of 1-6 points, while Okie was 3-3-1 ATS as road dogs at A teams, with an average losing margin of 1.5 ppg. So based on above support, we officailly like SA Spurs at -5.5 for two units, and unofficially recommend (i) buying down to -5 at -120 odds assuming your line is 5.5 and (ii) teasing Spurs down to -1/2 point (so all they have to do is win SU to cover their end of the teaser) to the Over, teased down to 199.