Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday May, 6

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Texas Rangers

When Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish and the Rangers conclude their three games visit to Cleveland against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Indians Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field, Texas will do so knowing they are 5-0 behind Darvish this season. On the flip side the Tribe is winless at home this season in Jimenez's two starts. With Jimenez in terrible KW form with 6 strikeouts and 14 walks in his last three starts, and 1-6 with a 5.71 ERA in his last seven team starts during the month of May, look for the Rangers to continue their winning ways in this series here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.

John Ryan

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

10* graded play on the Atlanta Hawks as they take on the Boston Celtics set to start at 7:00 PM ET in their first round playoff matchup in the Eastern Conference. The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by five or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game and tying the series at two games apiece.

Boston leads the series two-game-to-one, but it took overtime to get the win in Game 3. Boston and Atlanta have had significant injuries on their squad all season and the toll is showing particularly with the Celtics club. Boston head coach Doc Rivers gave the team off Saturday , which is very rare in playoff action since it was the only day that they had to practice.

Ryan Allen came back Friday after not playing since April 10 and was a big lift for the Celtics, especially in the second half of Friday?s win. Avery Bradley went down with a shoulder injury and Allen logged in 38 key minutes Friday. Bradley has had the shoulder issue all season and trainers are able to ?snap? it back in place most of the time. This is just one example of the series of nagging injuries affecting the Celtics and the Hawks squads in the shortened and compacted 66-game schedule.

The biggest factor is Atlanta is younger and will recover faster in the day-to-day grind of the NBA playoffs. I think it speaks volumes that Rivers gave the team a complete day off as it may be his only chance to win this series if the team is given as much rest as possible. I just don?t see Boston being able to get through this series and advance with this series tied at 2-2 and becoming a bet-of-three series.

Boston has the second best scoring defense in the NBA allowing 89.0 points per game on the season. They have held Atlanta to two straight games shooting under 40%, but I see Atlanta making the adjustments and will shoot far better in this game. One of those adjustments is that looking to create more fast break scoring opportunities off of missed Boston Celtic shots attempts.

The Hawks rank sixth in the NBA averaging 15.9 fast break points per game on the season. Boston ranks fifth in the NBA allowing 11.7 fast break points per game,, but I strongly believe that Atlanta will be able to attack early in this game looking to wear down the aged Celtics. The more running the Hawks execute, even without ending the break with a score, will slowly wear down the Celtics starting five.

In watching the game, look for the when the majority of perimeter shots begin to be short for the Celtics. This is the first and most prevalent sign of fatigue in basketball and that is when Atlanta can put the peddle to the metal and run the Celtics off the court.

Boston is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA ranking 29th and averaging 46.8 rebounds per game. Atlanta is not that much better ranking 22nd and averaging 49.6 boards per game. However, Atlanta can focus on minimizing Boston?s second chance scoring opportunities knowing that Boston ranks dead last in the NBA at 30th averaging just 7.6 offensive boards per game. So, Atlanta will do a great job defending their glass and preventing Boston from getting second chance scoring opportunities.

For Atlanta, forward Josh Smith, is listed as probable for this game with a knee injury. Tracy McGrady, who had a huge Game 3, before rolling an ankle on the heel of Rondo after a three point shot attempt, is listed as probable. Cebnter, Zaza Pachulia is listed as doubtful with s foot injury.

For Boston, guard Ray Allen is probable for Sunday?s game with a tender ankle. He played 38 minutes on that ankle and at his age, it does become difficult to come back from a game like was played on Friday. Avery Bradley will play, but is listed as questionable with the shoulder injury.

The Bottom line is that ATlanta is younger, faster, and has the personnel and bench to wear down the Celtics in the second half of this game. Atlanta will look to force the pace of play on every opportunity and I strongly believe they will be successful and win the game.

Take the Atlanta Hawks for a 10* graded Titan play.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a nice 14-3 system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or higher with a total that was 8 or less if they scored 5 or more runs on 10 + hits with no more than 1 errors and left 5 or more men on base, if the total today is 8 or less and they are taking on a road team off a road loss that scored 2 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base. The Giants have won 3 of the last 4 vs The Brewers and have the #1 home era . We will back Cain over Marcum in this one and take the Giants.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to avoid the sweep in the nation's capital on Sunday, where they have lost their last two ball games. They will send left-hander Cole Hammels to the mound, who has been fantastic so far this season. Hammels is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.78, and he is coming off a solid outing where he pitched well but was charged with a no decision. Hammels has a stellar record in his last ten starts versus the Nationals, with only one loss and a record of 6-1.

Washington won't be easy to beat on Sunday, they will send their ace Jordan Zimmermann to the mound, who is still looking for his second win of the season. Zimmermann hasn't been unbeatable this season, in his last start he gave up four runs in just over six innings in a 5-1 loss to Arizona. His career numbers versus the Phillies are not that great either, with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 6.06 in three career starts.

I am looking for the Phillies to get the job done against Washington in this one, behind solid pitching from Cole Hammels, and the hot bat of Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz is hitting a whopping .419 with three homers, three doubles and 15 RBIs in his last eight games. He's also 3 for 7 with a home run in his career against Zimmermann.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Chicago White Sox have not fared well at Comerica Park in Detroit. Despite winning on Saturday, 3-2, the Sox have still dropped 11 of their last 13 at Comerica. The Sox are now 13-14 and just two games behind Central Division leading Cleveland. The Sox will start Dylan Axelrod who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. This will be Axelrod's first start of the season after two appearances from the pen. Detroit will counter with Rick Porcello who is 2-2 this year with a 5.64 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Porcello snapped a two game losing streak with a 9-3 win against KC his last start. He allowed just three earned runs over eight innings. Porcello hopes he has returned to the form that saw him start off the season with two strong performances, allowing jut three earned runs over 14 2/3 innings. The Tigers don't lose often to the Sox at home and since they got that rare loss out of their system on Saturday, I'm going back to the Tigers here on Sunday. Take Detroit.

Dave Cokin

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Tommy Hunter is not real good, and he's very prone to long balls. But Clay Buchholz has been awful for Boston, giving up at least five runs in every start and the Red Sox continue to be wildly overpriced in almost every game. The Orioles are, at least at the present time, better than Boston and at this price, the Birds are a solid value.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY -105 over Philadelphia

The Flyers really seem to be running out of gas. They beat the Penguins in a series they weren’t supposed to win and that round one victory appears to have taken too big an emotional toll. Against the Devils, Philadelphia has been outclassed, outhit, outhustled and there’s no reason to believe things will change here. The scores have been close on paper but have not told the true story of what has transpired on the ice in this series. From the opening faceoff of game one, New Jersey has clearly been the better team in every way and that includes game two without Ilya Kovalchuk. Today’s line does not reflect that one bit and it’s for that reason we’ll confidently step in and play the home team in a game they should be favored by more than a nickel in. Definite underlay. Play: New Jersey -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +205/+5½ over BOSTON

Every game these two have played over the past year has been close. In fact, dating back to April of 2011 and over seven games including this year’s playoffs, the biggest margin of victory has been nine points and that was in game one of these playoffs. Two of those have gone into OT and four of them have been decided by five or less. Now with a total of 171½ and with Josh Smith’s likely return, the Hawks are being offered significant points in a game they can not only stay within range but could win outright. One could argue that the Hawks could be up 3-0 in this series as oppose to being down 2-1. They lost the last game in OT, they had the C’s on the ropes in game 2 and were in complete control in the opener. All the value is on Atlanta here, as Boston simply does not warrant this tag and so we’ll play the Hawks both on the point-spread and money line. Play: Atlanta +5½ (Risking 1.09 units to win 1) Play: Atlanta +205 (Risking 1 unit).

Denver -2 over L.A. LAKERS

A confidence boost is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Nuggets and they got a big one in game three when they jumped out to a 41-17 lead and held off a furious Laker rally. The entire series now has a different feel, as the Nuggets are in position to even it up. L.A. has a decided edge in the low post with Andrew Bynum but that’s where any edge they have ends. The Nuggets are much quicker and they have the NBA’s best bench. The deficiencies of the Lakers' bench were bound to be exposed at some point and the Nuggets were the first to put this glaring weakness on full display. Denver’s bench manhandled the Lakers' second unit, outscoring it 39-9 in game three and there’s likely more of that to come here. The longer this series goes and the more minutes Kobe plays, the bigger toll it will take on a guy that has played far too many minutes over the past four months. The Lakers have been prone to big runs against all season long on the road and suffered its worst one in game three when Denver went on a 28-2 run. The Lakers' starters need some help and at this point it's unclear where that will come from. Line is cheap as a direct result of the Lakers enormous popularity with the betting public and once again we can take advantage. Play: Denver -2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +101 over N.Y. METS

The thing you have to love about Trevor Cahill is that he’s an extreme groundball pitcher and that gives him a great chance to pitch deep into games and pile up the W’s. Cahill has a 64% groundball rate and what that also does is keep the ball in the park and makes every hitter a potential double-play candidate. In 32 innings, Cahill has been taken yard just one time. The D-Backs have won three of his five starts with his only disaster outing being against Atlanta. He’ll face a laboring Mets team that has dropped four of five and that is hitting just .242 over their past five games and .242 over their past 10 as well. The fact that R.A. Dickey emerged as a big league regular in his mid-30s and throws a knuckler might make some wonder if he's going to turn into a pumpkin soon. But consider that he's tossed 400 innings in a Mets uniform over the past two seasons with few bad starts. He gets lots of ground balls, strikes out almost six per game and has excellent control. Maybe it's time to believe. However, he’s allowed at least one jack in every game thus far and has already been tagged for seven bombs. Other than that he’s pitched well and that allows us to take back a small tag on a warm Snakes club with a pitcher who is very difficult to go yard against. Play: Arizona +101 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +106 over WASHINGTON

Ryan Zimmerman is a tough pitcher. He’s had one quality start after another this season and owns a stellar 1.89 ERA. He’s walked just three batters in 33.1 innings while strikeout out 22. However, he’s also a hard luck pitcher that rarely gets run support and that has just 13 wins over 54 major league starts. There’s no explanation for it and it has to play on one’s mind after a while. Zimmerman opposes Cole Hamels here and is probably thinking he has to be near perfect to win. He might be right. Hamels is among the elite pitchers in the game and is pitching for a contract next season when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Phillies have won his last four starts. Hamels has struck out 36 while walking five in 32.1 innings. The guy is the straight goods and anytime we can take back a tag with Cole Hamels going, it’s a bet we’ll make just about every time. Against this anemic offense, it’s a bet that must be made. Play: Philadelphia +106 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Los Angeles Lakers +2

Well, it looks like we now have a series in the three-seed vs. six-seed matchup in the Western Conference, as the Denver Nuggets (39-30, 38-31 ATS) took Game 3 at home 99-84 on Friday after the Los Angeles Lakers (43-26, 29-40 ATS) took the first two game at Staples Center. That makes the Nuggets 7-1 in their last eight home games and they will try and stay hot and even this series up in Game 4 from the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO on Sunday night at 9:30 ET on TNT.

Not to take anything away from Denver's performance in Game 3, but the Lakers did not come out with the same intensity they showed in Los Angeles, and thus the Nuggets ran them out of the building early while building up an incredible 41-17 lead. Still, give the Lakers credit for fighting back as they actually had the deficit down to four points in the fourth quarter before Denver pulled away again late. Los Angeles ended up shooting just 37.2 percent for the game, and once again, the bench was a no-show despite playing more minutes due to the altitude. The bench totaled only nine points, as Matt Barnes scored six points in 20 minutes. Steve Blake was even worse scoring three points in 27 minutes and Jordan Hill was scoreless in 13 minutes. As for the starters, Kobe Bryant was the leading scorer as usual but he was not his dominant self with 22 points on just 7-of-23 shooting. While the Lakers figure to get off to a better start in Game 4 since they do not figure to be as passive as when they were while playing with a 2-0 series lead, they still probably need to get some production from the bench, as once again the Nuggets figure to run a lot in the altitude and the LA starters could get gassed fairly quickly without some extended rests.

Surprisingly, the Nuggets shot only 39.8 percent in Friday's victory, but they also had 15 more field goal attempts (93 to 78) as they committed only seven turnovers in the entire game compared to 15 by the Lakers. This is a team that actually lost 13 games at home this season but you would not know it from its recent performances here as four of their last five home wins have now been by at least 15 points. The Nuggets led the NBA in scoring during the regular season at 104.1 points per game while ranking a dismal 29th in defense allowing 101.2 points per contest, but they have actually stepped things up on defense here at home lately, just in time for the playoffs. Denver has kept its opponents below 100 points in five of its last six home wins and Game 3 marked the fourth time in those five occasions that it has held teams below 90 points.

It would appear that defense has usually ruled the day when these clubs have gotten together in recent years, as Friday's result brought the 'under' to an amazing 23-7 in the last 30 head-to-head meetings. Then again, those games have averaged 202.5 combined total points, so the success of the 'under' has had as much to do with inflated totals as it has with stiff defense.

Bryan Power

Miami @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Miami

Things were looking up a bit for San Diego following back to back shutout victories over Milwaukee earlier this week, but they have dropped the first two games of this series with suddenly surging Miami and are now likely to be swept here at Petco Park.

While the Padres play in a pitchers' park, it is typically their own offense that struggles more than the opposition. That's confirmed by the fact they are averaging only three runs per home game this season with a terrible .208 team batting average. A 4-1 loss on Saturday does not set them up well at all here considering a 19-39 mark when seeking revenge for a loss where they scored 1 or less run. They are also just 16-34 as a home dog dating back to last season.

The Marlins have won four straight and start Ricky Nolasco here. Nolasco has yet to drop a decision with a 2.76 ERA in five starters. He's usually even better on the road as the team has won 21 of his previous 33 starts away from home. He's won his last three starts here at Petco Park. Look for Miami to sweep San Diego.

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -140

We'll take the Giants as our free play Sunday given Milwaukee's struggles on the road and with Marcum on the mound. The Brewers have lost 9 of their last 12 on the road where they are batting just .216 on the season. They've also dropped each of Marcum's last 4 starts while providing him with little run support. Cain has been sizzling for San Francisco, especially at home where he has an ERA of just .69 through 3 starts. It hasn't been wise to fade Cain at home as the Giants are 42-20 in his last 62 starts on the bay. The Giants are 12-5 in their last 17 games as a home favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll take San Francisco.

CHUCK O'BRIEN

My free pick run is now at 23-12 after last night's win on the Oklahoma City Thunder, which went into Dallas and completed a four-game sweep, bringing an end to the Mavericks' reign in the NBA. Tonight I have your Sunday night baseball game on national TV, as I'm laying the cheap price with the Washington Nationals over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Quite a team the Nationals are turning out to be, as they've now won four straight, and are rapidly climbing up the jersey-sales chart, as rookie phenom Bryce Harrper has made an immediate impact at just the right time. The Nats recently hit the skids, losing five straight about a week and a half back, but have now won four in row thanks to the hot - and timely - hitting of Harper and a host of others, and the league's No. 1 pitching staff.

The Nationals lead the league with a 2.36 ERA, while their starters also rank No. 1 with a 2.09 ERA while sporting a 10-4 mark. Amazingly, while the worst staff has allowed 28 home runs (Minnesota), the Nationals are the only team left in the majors who have allowed less than 10 home runs (7).

I am not listing pitchers in this one, cause I don't think it really matters in this one. Not when the Nationals are finding ways to win ball games and will be fired up to complete the sweep of preseason-favored Philadelphia. The Phillies might have been the popular choice, but it's Washington leading the National League East, and tied for the lead on the senior circuit with the Los Angeles Dodgers with an 18-9 mark.

Philly, meanwhile, is sitting in last place and has lost two straight. There is just too much excitement going on in our nation's capital with this team, and I think this is a very cheap price on the Nats. Lay it, as the winning streak reaches five.

4♦ WASHINGTON

DOM CHAMBERS

I'm going to take the over in the New York Yankees-Kansas City Royals game.

Does anybody have a match, because the pitchers both clubs are starting should be blown up early this game.

The Yankee start Phil Hughes, who has an ERA of 7.48 and a WHIP of 1.615. His last two starts did not go over only because the Yankees did not provide any offense. Their opponents, however, averaged nearly seven runs a game.

Then there’s Royals’ starter Luke Hochevar. He makes Hughes look reasonable, sporting an 8.00 ERA for home starts and a 7.37 overall ERA. His WHIP is 1.676 and his last two starts have gone over the total.

With this game's total set at 9½ runs, I expect both clubs to contribute to the cause and easily get the total to go over before they get to the bullpens.

Take the over.

3♦ OVER