SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Boston (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers, coming off a blowout Game 3 victory, look to take full control of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics at TD Garden in Game 4.
LeBron James racked up 21 of his 38 points in the first quarter Friday night, helping top-seeded Cleveland plow to a 124-95 rout as a one-point road underdog and regain home-court advantage as fast as the Cavs lost it in Game 2. James, who also had eight assists, hit 14 of 22 from the field, and Mike Brown’s troops shot a scorching 59.5 percent (44 of 74). Antawn Jamison added a double-double of 20 points and 12 rebounds.
In suffering its worst home playoff loss in franchise history, Boston shot 42.7 percent (35 of 82), going just 4-for-17 from 3-point range (23.5 percent), and no Celtic reached 20 points, with Kevin Garnett scoring 19 and Rajon Rondo 18. The Celts hit a decent 21 of 29 from the free-throw line (72.4 percent), but they sent the Cavs to the charity stripe a whopping 34 times, and Cleveland knocked down 31 (91.2 percent). In addition, Doc Rivers’ squad got drilled on the boards, 45-30.
Cleveland is 28-16 SU (24-19-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 102 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent). Boston is 27-18 SU but just 15-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.9 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) and gives up 96.4 (45.9 percent).
Cleveland has owned this rivalry lately at the betting window, going 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings (4-3 SU and ATS this season), including 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests at the Garden. The Cavs, who prior to Friday hadn’t won a playoff game in Boston since 1992, are on an 8-2 ATS run in postseason games against the Celtics (7-1 ATS last eight), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago.
Also, the SU winner has cashed in 10 straight series clashes in this rivalry, including all seven this season.
The Cavaliers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 second-round playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes, but they remain on pointspread slides of 6-12 overall, 0-4 after a day off, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 2-8 following a SU win.
The Celtics are on pointspread purges of 12-27-1 at the Garden, 5-15 in second-round playoff contests, 1-6-1 on Sunday and 7-18-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, though they are also on a 6-1 ATS roll following either a SU or an ATS setback.
The under is 18-7 in Cleveland’s last 25 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 13-3 against Atlantic Division foe, and 6-1 on the highway. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-5 overall, 7-2 at the Garden, 8-2 against the Central Division and 35-16 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total hurdled the 193½-point posted price of in Game 3, giving the over a 6-1 mark in this season’s seven meetings. Furthermore, the over is 6-0 in the last six Cavs-Celts contests at TD Garden (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (7-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
The streaking Suns look to finally slay their playoff nemesis when they go for the four-game sweep of the reeling Spurs when this best-of-7 series resumes at the AT&T Center.
Phoenix overcame an 18-point first-half deficit, then got 23 points fourth-quarter points from little-known Goran Dragic in a 110-96 rout Friday night as a seven-point road pup. Dragic went 5-for-5 from beyond the arc and finished with 26 points, while Jason Richardson added 21, and Steve Nash had 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The Suns shot 53.2 percent (42 of 79), including a torrid 57.7 percent from long range (15 of 26).
Manu Ginobili had 27 points to lead San Antonio, but none of his teammates even approached 20, with Tim Duncan coming closest at 15 points, to go with 13 rebounds. The Spurs shot a respectable 45 percent (36 of 80), including 8 of 16 from three-point range, and outrebounded Phoenix 43-37 (11-6 on the offensive end). But San Antonio’s struggles from the free-throw line continued as it hit just 57.1 percent of its foul shots (16 of 28) after going 15-for-22 (68.2 percent) in Game 2.
Phoenix is 25-20 SU (26-19 ATS) on the highway this season (3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 ppg (45.6 percent). With Friday’s defeat, San Antonio fell to 32-13 SU (26-17-2 ATS) at the AT&T Center this year (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in the playoffs), putting up 104.5 ppg (49.0 percent shooting) and yielding 96.8 ppg (46 percent shooting).
Phoenix has cashed in all six meetings this season in this rivalry (5-1 SU), though Friday’s affair was only the second time the teams played in San Antonio. Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS on its last nine trips to the Alamo, the favorite and the home team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the SU winner is 16-1-1 ATS in the last 18 Spurs-Suns matchups.
These foes have met four times in the postseason since 2003, with San Antonio winning all four series. However, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series in 90 opportunities.
The Suns are on a boatload of spread-covering sprees, including 32-11-1 overall, 15-6 on the road (4-1 last five), 10-3 as a road pup, 19-5 against the Southwest Division, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 35-15-1 after a day off.
The Spurs are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall, 2-7-1 on Sunday and 1-3-1 after a day off, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 21-12-1 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 12-4-1 as a favorite and 21-7-3 as a playoff chalk.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings overall, including five of six this season, though Friday’s game fell just a hair short of the 206½-point price. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 11-5 against the Southwest Division (5-2 last seven) and 12-5 in second-round playoff games, but the Suns are also on “under” rolls of 5-2 overall, 7-0-1 on the road and 4-1 after a day off.
Additionally, San Antonio is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a day off, 8-3 as a playoff favorite and 8-2-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (17-12) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets shoot for a three-game sweep of the Giants and their 10th straight home win, but they’ll have to face two-time N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.70 ERA), while New York counters with lefty Oliver Perez (0-2, 4.05) at Citi Field.
One day after catcher Rod Barajas hit a walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to give the Mets a 6-4 victory Friday, backup catcher Henry Blanco smacked a walk-off solo shot in the 11th inning Saturday to secure a 5-4 win. New York has won nine straight home games for the first time since 2006, and it is on further positive runs of 13-5 overall, 9-3 against right-handed starters and 6-0 versus the N.L. West.
San Francisco arrived in the Big Apple after scoring a three-game sweep in Florida to start the week, and despite suffering heartbreaking losses in the first two games of this series, the Giants are still 9-5 in their last 14 games. However, they’ve lost five of their last six in the third game of a series.
The Mets have now won 12 of 15 against San Francisco, including eight of the last 10 battles in Queens.
Lincecum is coming off back-to-back no-decisions in extra-inning games. On April 28 against the Phillies, he allowed two runs in 8 1/3 innings and took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, but the bullpen couldn’t get the final two outs and San Francisco lost 7-6 in 11 innings. Then on Tuesday in Florida, the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in seven innings, with the Giants prevailing 9-6 in 12 innings.
Over his last two starts, Lincecum has logged 24 strikeouts while walking just two in 15 1/3 innings. Also, going back to the final weekend of the 2009 season, San Francisco is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Lincecum has made three road starts this year (all Giants wins), going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (three runs, 13 hits, three walks and 27 strikeouts in 20 innings). However, he’s struggled in three career starts against the Mets, going 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, with San Francisco losing all three games.
Perez is coming off a strong performance at Cincinnati, yielding just two runs on six hits and four walks in six innings, but the Mets fell 3-2 in 11 innings. The southpaw has held his last four opponents to eight earned runs in 21 innings (3.43 ERA), yet the Mets have just one victory during this stretch. In fact, New York is 1-5 in his last six outings overall and 0-6 in his last six on Sunday, but the Mets have won seven of Perez’s last eight starts against N.L. West opponents.
At home this year, Perez is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts, and since Citi Field opened at the start of last season, he’s 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 home contests. Additionally, Perez is winless in nine career starts against San Francisco, going 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA. The Giants are 7-2 in those nine games.
The Giants have followed up a 13-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three games, but they still carry low-scoring trends of 5-2 against left-handed starters, 27-10-2 on the road against lefties, 30-12-2 in the third game of a series and 5-1 on Sunday. However, with Lincecum on the bump, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road and 4-0 in the third game of a series.
New York is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in the third game of a series, and with Perez pitching the over is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 6-0-1 against the N.L. West and 9-2 in the third game of a series. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between the Giants and Mets have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-8) at Boston (15-16)
Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA) looks to continue his hot pitching and help the Red Sox avoid a three-game sweep when he matches up against unbeaten Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99) in a nationally televised contest at Fenway Park.
Mark Teixeira blasted three home runs and New York continued its dominance of the Red Sox with a 14-3 rout on Saturday. Since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, the Yankees are on a 13-2 roll against their archrivals, winning the last four in a row this season (all at Fenway). Also, the defending champs are 6-2 in their last eight contests in Beantown.
New York is now riding a six-game winning streak, and it has won nine of its 10, with all nine wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 21 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 27 of their 29 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. Joe Girardi’s team is on further runs of 40-15 overall, 44-14 against divisional foes, 45-20 against left-handed starters and 50-23 on Sunday.
Boston is still 11-7 in its last 18 games, going 8-4 at Fenway during this stretch. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-18 against the A.L. East (0-5 last five) and 3-19 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600.
Burnett is coming off back-to-back gems against the Orioles, allowing one unearned run on eight hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings, rolling to wins of 4-0 (road) and 4-1 (home). The Arkansas native has yielded just six runs in his last five outings covering 35 2/3 innings (1.51 ERA).
The Yankees are 5-1 in Burnett’s six starts this season, 12-2 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-0 in his last five on Sunday. Four of his six starts this season have come on the road, and he’s 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA. His first road outing this year came on April 6 in Boston, and Burnett gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings, getting a no-decision in the Yankees’ 6-4 win.
For his career, Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Red Sox, but since signing with New York last year, he’s allowed 26 runs (23 earned) in five starts spanning 25 1/3 innings (8.17 ERA). All 26 runs have been surrendered in four games (17 2/3 innings) at Fenway Park (11.72 ERA).
Lester struggled in his first three starts, giving up 15 runs in 16 innings in losses to the Yankees (6-4), Twins (5-2) and Rays (7-1). However, in his last three trips to the hill, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts against just eight walks. However, Lester is still just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four home starts, with the Red Sox splitting those contests.
With Lester starting, Boston is on positive runs of 60-29 overall, 28-6 at home, 21-7 in the third game of a series and 12-5 on Sunday. However, the Sox have lost three straight games to the Yankees behind Lester, who is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Bronx Bombers.
New York is on “over” runs of 16-5-2 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 on Sunday, 6-2 with Burnett starting, 6-1 with Burnett working on the road and 6-2-1 when he faces the A.L. East. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in six of eight at home and five of seven on Sunday, but behind Lester, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-1 at home and 5-0 on Sunday.
Finally, the over has cashed in four of five meetings between these teams this year (all in Boston), and eight of the last nine clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total. Going back further, the over is 40-19-1 in the last 60 Yanks-Sox battles at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Phoenix at San Antonio
The Spurs look to avoid elimination and build on their 9-3-1 ATS record in their last 13 games as a home favorite. San Antonio is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2)
Game 725-726: Cleveland at Boston (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.546; Boston 123.277
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over
Game 727-728: Phoenix at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; San Antonio 127.118
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
Colorado at LA Dodgers
The Rockies look to follow up their 8-0 win yesterday and build on their 11-1 record in Ubaldo Jimenez' last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130)
Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.354; Cincinnati (Leake) 13.871
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); Over
Game 903-904: San Francisco at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.662; NY Mets (Perez) 15.625
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-200); Over
Game 905-906: Florida at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.300; Washington (Hernandez) 16.006
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Over
Game 907-908: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.976; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.832
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.234; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.232
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Over
Game 911-912: San Diego at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.696; Houston (Oswalt) 14.890
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Under
Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.077; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.008
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under
Game 915-916: Milwaukee at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.066; Arizona (Kennedy) 13.763
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Under
Game 917-918: Detroit at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.046; Cleveland (Talbot) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over
Game 919-920: Toronto at Chicago White Sox 2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.417; White Sox (Floyd) 14.900
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.321; Minnesota (Blackburn) 17.014
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 923-924: Kansas City at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.772; Texas (Feldman) 14.474
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Over
Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.783; Oakland (Braden) 15.551
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
Game 927-928: LA Angels at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 13.251; Seattle (Vargas) 14.152
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.342; Boston (Lester) 14.758
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over
NHL
Vancouver at Chicago
The Canucks look to bounce back from their 7-4 loss in Game 4 and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Vancouver is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+165)
Game 9-10: Vancouver at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.381; Chicago 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+165); Over
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels conclude a three-game visit to Seattle when they send Ervin Santana to the hill against the Mariners. Santana enters today's contest in solid current form with five walks and 24 K's in his last four starts, while compiling a 3.13 ERA in those games. He's also 10-5 in his 15 career team starts in this series. With that we'll back the Halos here today.
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
It's been largely a case of "feast or famine" this year for the Brewers' offense. Yesterday, Milwaukee blasted the Diamondbacks 17-3, and that was the sixth time this season (including three of their last five) that the Brewers have scored double-digits in runs! Unfortunately, in six of their last nine games, the Brewers have scored three runs or less (including three shutouts). And in a staggering 14 games of their 30 this season, the Brewers have scored three runs or less. That's probably not going to get the job done against Ian Kennedy today, as he's really pitching well (3.65 ERA; 1.13 WHIP), including 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. Chris Narveson will take the mound for Milwaukee, and he's been completely mediocre this season (4.91 ERA). The Brewers have won 12 of 16 at Arizona, including a 5-3 victory last season behind Narveson. Those facts are noted. But Arizona has been piling up runs vs. lefty starters this year (6.7 per game; .289 batting avg.), and we'll take the Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Play on: Arizona Diamondbacks
David Chan
Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Florida Marlins
Take the Marlins, backing Anibal Sanchez over Livan Hernandez.
This pick is something of a system play; even if you don’t want to bet this one, file it away and track it. It goes like this: take any dog going against a pitcher who walks more men than he strikes out. Livan Hernandez has fanned 11 this season, while walking 13.
A lot of my pitching work and computer programs come down to K/BB ratio. (See this week’s article for an example.) Balls put into play are something of a crapshoot, but a pitcher’s true worth, in my opinion, can best be measured when his team mates are not involved: strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. If you keep the ball in the yard, ring up a lot of batters, and issue few free passes, that’s all you can do, and it makes you a stud. How many runs your own offense puts up, where batted balls land, and how your manager sets up the defense—that’s largely out of your control.
Anibal Sanchez has also been pitching to contact, but a 17/8 K/BB ratio at least means he isn’t beating himself. Hernandez, 4-1, isn’t beating himself either—but he’s trying to.
Info Plays
3* on Cleveland Cavaliers -1
Reasons the Cavs cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This is a 28-6 ATS System hitting 82.4% since 1996. This system is 2-1 this season.
2.) Cleveland actually has a better road record (28-16) than Boston's home record (27-18). Home court has not been much of an advantage at all for the Celtics, and that was on display in Game 3. It's clear that Lebron James' elbow is just fine after he poured in 21 first quarter points en route to a 124-95 Game 3 victory. If Cleveland plays at or near their best, Boston cannot beat them. The Cavs won't make the same mistake they did in Game 2 by coming out flat. Look for the Cavs to go in for the kill Sunday. Bet Cleveland in Game 4.
Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -138
Off a rare loss to the A's Saturday, we fully expect the Rays to bounce back Sunday behind James Shields. Tampa Bay still owns the best record in baseball at 22-8 and the Rays are 13-2 on the road this season. The Rays are 5-1 in Shields' 6 starts this year, as he has posted a 4-0 record with a 3.15 ERA. Shields recently beat Oakland on 4/28, allowing 1 earned run on 6 hits and 1 walk in 7 innings of a 10-3 victory over the A's. He faced Dallas Braden, the same starter he'll take on Sunday. Braden gave up 6 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings, giving his team no chance. Shields is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Tampa Bay should be more heavily favored considering this is the same pitching match-up that resulted in a 10-3 victory over the A's less than two weeks ago. Take Tampa Bay on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -145
I'll back the Twins behind Blacknurn today. The Twins are 8-2 in Blackburn's last 10 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Twins are 81-36 in their last 117 games as a home favorite while the Orioles are 15-41 in their last 56 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has been some of the best fade material in the majors this season and we'll fade away again Sunday. Take the Twins.
Rob Vinciletti
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
The Sox have taken it on the chin the last 2 games vs the Yankees. Tonight they will look to salvage the last game of the series. They have solid lefty J. Lester making the start. He has a 3-1 record vs New york and has pitched to a 0.44 era over his last 3 starts. He faced the Yankees earlier in the season here when he wasn't pitching nearly as well. Tonight he will face AJ. Burnett for the Yankees. Burnett has struggled big time in previous 2 starts here allowing 13 runs on 16 hits and 4 home runs in just 10 innings. Boston is 65-32 at home in games where the total is 9 to 9.5 the past few years. Look for the Sox to avenge last nights 14-3 beat down.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +105
Look for the Phillies to have their way with Kawakami, who is 0-5 with a 5.47 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, we can expect a solid out from Hamels, who carries an ERA of just 2.91 at home this season. Plus, the Braves are hitting a dismal .231 against southpaw starters and scoring only 3.3 runs per game against them. Considering the Phillies are hitting .281 and scoring 5.8 runs per game against righty starters, I like our chances with this small run line wager. Take the Phillies.
Jack Jones
Spurs/Suns UNDER 207
After facing each other three times, the Suns and Spurs both really know what each is trying to accomplish offensively. That makes stopping each other much easier in Game 4. San Antonio knows they have to defend the pick and roll much better than they did in Game 3, and this resilient team will do so. Phoenix has to contain the Big 3 and make everyone else try and beat them, and they were very effective in doing so in Game 3 with the exception of Ginobli. Parker and Duncan were virtual non-factors. This 207-point total is the biggest of the series to this point, which gives us solid value on the UNDER.
This play also falls under a system that is 40-10 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). The Suns are 10-1 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 31-16 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points this season. Phoenix has found a way to finally play solid defense this season, and we know that San Antonio can defend. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.
Steve Merril
Giants vs. Mets
Play: Over 7
The wind will be a factor on Sunday afternoon as the Mets and Giants wrap up their three game set. New York’s Oliver Perez has his own problems, and he doesn’t need weather to add to them. He's 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA on the season, and that goes up to 5.65 at home where he has yet to win a game. The left hander has a terrible history against the Giants in his career. Perez is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.69 in nine starts. Aaron Rowand (5-14), Mark DeRosa (5-9) and Bengie Molina (3-6) have the best numbers against Perez. The lefty is sporting a 1.61 WHIP so he loves putting runners on which is not good since the Giants are hitting .285 against lefties and .282 during the daytime.
San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum has 24 strikeouts in his last two starts but he hasn't picked up a victory in either. The righty is 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA in six starts, but four of those six games have gone Over the total. He is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and a WHIP of 1.58 in three career starts against the Mets. Last year, Lincecum gave up five runs and 10 hits in six innings of work in an 8-6 win by the Mets. Jose Reyes (2-6), Fernando Tatis (1-3), Alex Cora (1-3) and Jason Bay (1-3) have done the best in limited at-bats against Lincecum. The Mets have gone Over in three straight games, and since the weather will play a factor in this game, we expect a high-scoring game this afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -125
All I really need to say here is Ubaldo Jimenez. He's out of the gate 6-0 with an ERA of only 0.87. He gives the Rockies the edge this afternoon against the Dodgers and a struggling Clayton Kershaw. This was supposed to be the year that Kershaw really established himself as the ace of this staff, but he hasn't found his groove yet. He is 0-2 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.25. And dating back to last season, the Dodgers are just 6-13 in Kershaw's last 19 starts. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog. We'll make a small play on the team with the better starter on the hill here. Take the Rockies.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +1.36 over ARIZONA
The Brewers have woken up big time with four wins in five games and in three of those four wins they scored 11 runs or more. They exploded for 17 more runs yesterday and they’ve won the first two games of this series and nothing suggest they can’t sweep. Ian Kennedy has benefitted from pitching in San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston and at Wrigley Field. That sequence of four parks could make any pitcher in the league look good. You take a mediocre pitcher with good numbers and a correction in those numbers is guaranteed to be forthcoming. Kennedy has thrown 111, 110 and 110 pitches over his last three starts and let’s not forget that he was absolutely rocked in his first two starts of the year and has a career ERA of 5.12. Furthermore, the D-Backs might have the most toxic bullpen in the majors. That pen has a season ERA of 6.64 and an ERA of 8.34 over its last four games. Chris Narverson was very shaky in relief but appears to be a whole lot more comfortable as a starter. He’s a guy that keeps the ball down and in two starts he’s allowed just nine hits in 11 innings while striking out nine batters. The D-Backs have just three wins over its last nine games and three of those wins came against the reeling and pathetic Astros. Play: Milwaukee +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.09 over WASHINGTON
It’s virtually near impossible for Livan Hernandez to sustain the current run of good fortune that he’s had. Hernandez has a 0.99 ERA after five starts and when you look at his other numbers you would conclude that an ERA of 0.99 is impossible. In 36 innings he’s struck out 11 lousy batters while walking 13. He has an incredible but unsustainable 97% strand rate and not even Chris Angel could make that illusion last much longer. Hernandez threw 123 pitches in six innings in his last start and for a guy that’s 35-years old and has over 2700 major league innings those types of starts will quickly take its toll. An implosion is just around the corner and chances are it comes here. Anibal Sanchez is hit and miss. He has terrific stuff and could throw a gem at any time, as he has done many times in his career. However, this choice is more about taking back a tag against Hernendez and there’s no denying that’s where the value is in this game. Play: Florida +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.36 over MINNESOTA
Nick Blackburn is one of the most hittable pitchers and one of the most unappealing favorites in the game. First, he has just nine K’s in 32.2 innings, which is a strong sign that he’s not fooling anyone. He’s allowed 44 hits and seven jacks in 32 innings of work and that has led to a BAA of .338. The reports are that his velocity is way down and that could account for his lack of skills but whatever the case, the fact is, he’s pitching brutally awful. In 71 career starts, Blackburn’s BAA is .296 so it’s not like he’s being uncharacteristic this season. The man is simply not a very good pitcher and never has been. Brian Matusz is good. Here’s a guy that has made six starts and those six starts have come against the Rays twice, the Yanks twice, the Red Sox and Oakland. His last three starts have been against the Red Sox and Yankees twice and he did not allow more than three runs in any of them. His ERA on the year is 3.93 and he’s only allowed two bombs in 36 frames against a whole bunch of wickedly strong hitters. Matusz and the Orioles have played the toughest schedule in the majors thus far and as a result the Orioles 9-22 record is a little misleading. Not that the O’s are a strong team but they’re not as bad as that record suggests either and because of said record, they’re going to be a very undervalued team over the next few weeks and that’s definitely the case here. Play: Baltimore +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
James Patrick Sports
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw has been hurt by Colorado as the "Rocks" have hit him hard with a team batting average of (.260) while his opponent this afternoon at Dodger Stadium,Ublado Jimenez, was just named the National League Pitcher of the Month of April. Big Game James Patrick's Big League selection is Colorado Rockies.