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Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs look washed up after falling into an 0-3 hole. They’ve gone just 4-6 in their past 10 games, including a brutal 3-6-1 record against the spread in that span. San Antonio has done a pretty solid job on NBA odds when playing at home over the past few weeks, going 6-3-1 against the spread, but it didn’t matter one bit in Friday’s 110-96 loss to Phoenix. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker scored just 25 points—combined.
Phoenix, on the other hand, looks unstoppable right now. The Suns have ripped off victories in eight of their last 10 games, not to mention a great 8-2 run at the sportsbook. Another game in San Antonio certainly won’t faze the team, as Phoenix is 7-3 in its last 10 games against the spread when playing away from home.
At this point, you might as well stick a fork in the Spurs. The Suns mean business this year.
Pick: Phoenix
MATT FARGO
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
The Yankees have won the first two games of this series in Boston to make it four in a row over the Red Sox but the value lies with the home team tonight in this huge rivalry game in my opinion. Boston had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday and after yesterday, it dropped back to a game under .500 on the season. While the Yankees have owned this series dating back to last season with wins in 13 of the last 15 meetings, the situation sets up well for the Red Sox to get their second win against the Yankees this year. A.J. Burnett has been solid this season with a 1.99 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through six starts and he is coming off two straight outings where he allowed no runs. This is his second start against Boston this season after receiving a no-decision in the first meeting and he struggled yet again at Fenway Park. In four starts thee since coming over to the Yankees, Burnett has an 11.72 ERA with none of those four games being quality outings. Jon Lester was on the losing end in that game against Burnett although he also received a no-decision. He started slow with three rough outings but he has since settled down and allowed only one run in his last three starts. He did have a string of six straight quality starts against the Yankees so he has what it takes to get through this lineup. Boston falls into a great situation as well. Play on home teams with the moneyline between +125 and -125 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This situation is 37-16 (69.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Red Sox are 32-7 in Lester’s last 39 starts as a home favorite while going 17-4 in his last 21 home starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Boston Red Sox
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
It's been largely a case of "feast or famine" this year for the Brewers' offense. Yesterday, Milwaukee blasted the Diamondbacks 17-3, and that was the sixth time this season (including three of their last five) that the Brewers have scored double-digits in runs! Unfortunately, in six of their last nine games, the Brewers have scored three runs or less (including three shutouts). And in a staggering 14 games of their 30 this season, the Brewers have scored three runs or less. That's probably not going to get the job done against Ian Kennedy today, as he's really pitching well (3.65 ERA; 1.13 WHIP), including 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. Chris Narveson will take the mound for Milwaukee, and he's been completely mediocre this season (4.91 ERA). The Brewers have won 12 of 16 at Arizona, including a 5-3 victory last season behind Narveson. Those facts are noted. But Arizona has been piling up runs vs. lefty starters this year (6.7 per game; .289 batting avg.), and we'll take the Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Bryan Leonard
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brewers have continued their dominance in Arizona with a 9-3 record here after a 17-3 pummeling of the D Backs yesterday. They've now beaten Arizona 18 of the last 24 meetings. Today Chris Narveson takes the hill with much better numbers than what they appear on the surface. While we see that he owns a 4.01 ERA in his last seven starts, we dig deeper and find that his WHIP has been excellent. He's allowed just 39 baserunners in 33.2 innings of work over those seven starts. He's held each of those opponents to three earned runs or less. While he doesn't eat up innings like you would like, the Milwaukee bullpen should be in good shape after the team allowed just five runs in the first two games.
We like the job Ian Kennedy has done since coming over from the Yankees in the off-season. But he's being priced as an elite pitcher in this game and he's not even close to that level as of yet. He has a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts and he's been very fortunate this season. Kennedy has faced the offenses of Houston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego twice and Philadelphia. Los Angeles and San Diego have two of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
Milwaukee is 10-8 on the road this season and they have dominated the Diamondbacks here. The pitching match-up isn't as one sided as the line would suggest and the Brewers are playing the better ball. Tough to pass up Milwaukee as a solid underdog here.
PLAY MILWAUKEE
JR O'Donnell
CWS (+105) vs TOR
Chi White Sox (13-18) take out the Toronto Blue Jays 18-14 @ home today. Vegas has the Chi Sox at the right price here with a nice + 105 return, Jays rocket throwing Romeo was tagged in his last outing as the Cleveland Indians had a season-high five runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings on Tuesday. Paul Konerko leads Chi Sox and he is slugging .360 vs. lefty's and this is a huge gut play from our camp. Chi White Sox love the dog role behind Gavin Floyd as they are a perfect 8-0 in this role. The Blue Jays are a terrible 4-9 on the road as a favorite -110 to -160.
Dan Bebe
ANA (-120) vs SEA
Baseball is a sport of streaks, and so we're fading the Mariners.
Sometimes a write-up on a game can be a little disappointing, especially when the reasons don't go as deep as other plays, but bottom line is that when a team is in a tailspin, it's just as important to take advantage of that as it is to back a team on a hot streak.
Right now, the Mariners are tumbling faster than I can get this play up. In fact, by the time I finish this write-up, the line might be different, and I'll have to go back and readjust!
Seattle has lost 8 games in a row, and they're getting beat up at home by a smarter Angels team. They're not hitting, the pitching is getting worse by the night, and the reliable bullpen of 2009 is flawed this year.
Today, the Angels will get another quality start from a resurgent Ervin Santana. Don't get me wrong, Jason Vargas could throw a good game, but this line came out inflated because folks believed the Mariners would avoid the sweep. Such is not the case. The Halos have a nice collection of veterans that understand how to put a stamp on a series, especially one within their own Division, and the Mariners desperately need a day off to collect themselves.
Look for the Angels to win another relatively close one, but with neither team having a particularly large edge in the fatigue department, we're going to ride the side that isn't having mental issues and isn't deep in the doldrums of an extended losing skid.
Play the Angels!
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Mariners are 0-7 when seeking immediate revenge for a one run loss and 0-6 after an extra inning loss. The Angels are 5-0 as a dog in the last game of a three game series when they won the first two. Consider LA.
Denver Money
Houston Astros -135
The Astros continue to struggle and the Padres continue to play good baseball. Roy Oswalt will take the ball for the Astros today and hope to get some run support as he hasn't got much of that this season. The Astros have only given Oswalt 2.48 runs per outing this season. But Roy is 10-2 against the Padres with a 2.77 ERA in 13 starts. He has won his last 3 games against the Padres.
Oswalt will face Tim Stauffer today who has pitched good this season for the Padres going 2-1 with a .49 ERA, but this will be his first start this season. I expect Stauffer to start out good, but struggle a little more as he gets into the game.