Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 10

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
The Indians (5-4) head to Chicago tonight to face a White Sox team that is 2-9 in John Danks' last 11 home starts against a team with a winning record. Cleveland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115)

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.842; Cubs (Wood) 14.748
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); N/A

Game 903-904: Miami at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.674; Washington (Strasburg) 16.173
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-225); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-225); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.436; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.892
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.131; Atlanta (Hale) 14.277
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.250; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.186
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.710; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.144
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-145); Under

Game 913-914: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.856; NY Yankees (Pineda) 13.634
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 12.420; Toronto (Dickey) 14.978
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-225); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-225); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 15.699; White Sox (Danks) 14.104
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Under

Bryan Leonard

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +125

The Diamondbacks and Giants will finish up their three-game series with a Thursday evening game at AT&T Park. Randall Delgado could be pitching for his rotation spot in this one and he'll be opposed by Ryan Vogelsong. Delgado had some encouraging things to build on despite getting knocked around a bit by the Rockies. For starters, Delgado induced 11 swings and misses in just 4.2 innings of work. Over 60 percent of his pitches were strikes and he worked down in the zone quite a bit. But, the Rockies are a juggernaut of a lineup at home and the balls that Delgado did elevate got punished.

It didn't help that the BABIP Monster got a hold of him as he induced ground balls on almost 62 percent of balls in play, but they simply weren't hit at anybody. Only 9.5 percent of balls in play were line drives, so Delgado wasn't living in the middle of the plate at the belt. He's capable of touching 95 with heavy sink and has a track record of striking guys out in the minor leagues.

The big reason we like the Diamondbacks here is that, while we expect better from Delgado, Ryan Vogelsong is just overpriced. Vogelsong had a hard time maintaining his velocity in his first start and that's not a good sign for a guy that has a long track record of injuries throughout his professional career. Vogelsong worked up in the strike zone far too much in his last outing, as just 13.3 percent of balls in play were hit on the ground. He's lucky it wasn't worse with nine baserunners in four innings and two home runs allowed.

Looking at the PITCHf/x data and studying his batted ball numbers, it appears that Vogelsong is simply not healthy. After sitting around 92 mph in the first inning, he touched 92 twice the rest of the way. For a guy who has hovered around league average for ground ball rate, pitching up in the zone at 89-90 with no deception is a recipe for disaster. Hitters chased only 16 percent of the time in his first start and if that trend continues, Vogelsong will be behind in a lot of counts and be forced to throw 90 at the belt to get back into the count.

We'll take the encouraging signs from Delgado's first start and expect him to improve in this one, while Vogelsong and his team are overpriced from the Diamondbacks slow start. There's far too much talent on the Diamondbacks, both in the lineup and in the pitching staff, for this team to keep playing so poorly and we expect them to win this game more often than the line would have you believe.

Jim Feist

Spurs vs. Mavericks
Play: Under 203½

San Antonio can play any style, a great offensive team but also dynamite defensively ranked 4th in the NBA in points allowed. They also lose their point guard for this one. San Antonio's leading scorer Tony Parker is dealing with back spasms and will not travel on a two-game trip that ends here. That will surely effect their offense and the Spurs are on an 8-2 run under the total. This game means more for Dallas as if they end the season 3-1 they clinch a playoff spot, fighting for the No. 7 and 8 seed. They are locked in a three-way tie with Phoenix and Memphis, but have since notched road victories over both Los Angeles clubs as well as Sacramento to take a half-game edge over the Suns for seventh place in the Western Conference. They're also 1 1/2 games behind sixth-place Golden State. San Antonio is 5-1 under the total their last six road games plus the under is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 vs. the Western Conference. Dallas is off a spread cover and the under is 5-2 in Mavericks last seven games following a ATS win. Look for more defense than oddsmakers expect,

Art Aronson

Colorado Avalanche vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Vancouver Canucks +109

The Canucks fans got their wish as they booed loudly and chanted for Mike Gillis to get fired in the most recent loss to the Anaheim Ducks. Gillis was fired the day after and it was announced a few hours later that fan favorite and former team Captain Trevor Linden would take his spot as President of Hockey Operations. This will be the first game after the new boss has been hired and I think the Canucks step up and take it to their former division rival in the Colorado Avalanche. The Canucks have been officially eliminated from the playoffs but come into this game knowing they can still play spoiler for an Avalanche team looking to win their division. Keep in mind that the Canucks are a perfect 6-0 the last three seasons versus Colorado when hosting the game. Colorado did win the last meeting but it was in Denver where the game went to OT and really could have gone either way. Suffice to say that the Canucks really play the Avalanche hard and this has been a tough place for Colorado to win in lately. Vancouver is 10-2 SU overall against Colorado over that same time span. The Avs have been outscored 32-10 during an 0-8-1 skid there. Colorado, limited to three goals in its last six visits, hasn't won there since a 4-3 shootout victory April 6, 2010. The Canucks haven’t played since Monday, so this is a nice spot for them as the team is well rested. Vancouver is 10-7 when having two days rest between games. Colorado has two games against really tough foes in San Jose and Anaheim later on this road trip and it’s not too far a stretch to see it “looking ahead” to those contests. Consider taking the Canucks as the underdog to win outright.

Ray Monohan

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: San Antonio Spurs +2

Last I checked the Spurs still need one more win to nail down the top spot in the West. Even though this is a team that paces itself I think they are going to go for it sooner than later and this one against rival Dallas should have some intensity. The Spurs have just been so good of late I don’t see how you can bet against them. Especially with a team like Dallas that doesn’t even play defense.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +115

The Brewers are looking to bring out the brooms and sweep the Phillies tonight. They have won 5 straight on the road while averaging over 7 runs per game. Tonight they fit a solid dog system that plays on road dogs that are off a road favored win at less than-140 by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs, provided the total is 8 or less. These dogs are over .500 and the system brings back a solid Return on investment. The Brew crew has won 3 of the last 4 on the road vs leftys and that's what they will get here in Cliff Lee. In his last 2 home starts vs Milwaukee Lee has allowed 9 earned runs in 14 innings and has lost 3 of his last 4 home April Starts. The Brewers have Estrada going and he has been Tremendous allowing just 4 earned runs in his last 44 road innings, winning 5 of the last 7 road starts. The Phillies are 0-3 at night. The Brewers cashed as a free play on Wednesday and we will ride their coat tails once again here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Chicago White SoxSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tribe opens a four-game visit with the White Sox at Comiskey Park Thursday evening where promising flame thrower takes on John Danks in this A. L. Central Division duel. Salazar takes the mound sporting a spotless 2-0 career mark with a 2.00 ERA in his team starts in this series while Danks enters 1-7 with a 7.18 ERA at home against the Indians in his career team starts. With Danks just 2-10 in his last twelve team starts in April, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington at CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Caps and Canes will likely make the hockey purist very happy this evening. The chances of a 5-3 shootout is highly unlikely. The under is 6-0-1 in Carolina's last seven and 3-1 in the Caps last four.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins at Washington NationalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami Marlins +1½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marlins are off to a solid start to the season, but are still in search of their first win away from Miami. They came close last night, taking a 7-6 lead into the bottom of the 8th, when Carlos Marmol did what he does best, serving up the game on a silver platter, surrendering a grand slam that put Washington up 10-7. Miami's bats got the job done, scoring seven runs on 14 hits. Giancarlo Stanton appears to be poised for a monster season, and the additions of Garrett Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have given the Marlins a boost offensively. They face Stephen Strasburg this afternoon, who comes in with plenty of hype, but doesn't have the numbers to back it up. Strasburg (0-1, 6.10 ERA) has surrendered 10 runs on 13 hits and five walks in his first two starts of the season. Stanton is hitting .381 with a pair of home runs in 21 career at bats versus Strasburg. The Fish hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who was a winner in his season debut. The 27 year old only fanned one, while surrendering a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in a win over the Padres. We aren't expecting a pitcher's duel here, but I believe the value lies with a play on the Fish as a dog.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Jersey vs. OttawaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New JerseyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Though the Devils are now officially eliminated from playoff contention, the same can be said for the Senators as well and I still believe New Jersey is the better club. Thus, I'll grab 'em at plus money here.
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These teams have exchanged 5-2 results earlier in the season w/ the home team winning both times. Though I lost with them Monday night, the Devils are a team I'll continue to defend. Losing 1-0 at home to Calgary was bad, but when it's all said and done it will be an incomprehensible 0-11 record in shootouts that burnt New Jersey this season. This is a team with the penalty kill in the league and faces the fewest shots on goal per game. I know I talk about it a lot. But those are the characteristics of what should be a better hockey team.
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Ottawa is off B2B road wins in New York, beating the Rangers first, then the Islanders. I put little stock in their ability to win a third straight time. They have lost 12 of 17 times this season following a win by two or more goals. The Devils have allowed just three goals total the last three games.

River City Sharps

Brewers +125

In looking over the lines tonight, this one really jumped off the page at us and we are going to back the road dog that is playing great baseball. The Brewers have gotten off to a great start and we like Estrada in this spot. Milwaukee is swinging the bats great and are looking to back up their sweep of the Red Sox with another road sweep, this time the Phils. Confidence is a strong thing early in the season and the Brewers definitely have some swagger right now. We like this one Thursday night and the value clearly lies with the visitors.

MLB Predictions

Mets / Braves Under 7.5

The Atlanta Braves may be on to something with this David Hale. He hasn't been around for long, and doesn't have all that much experience, but with the time he has gotten he has taken advantage of it. Taking full advantage that is. Dating back to last season, Hale has given up only 1 run in 16 innings pitched. He appeared in three games last season, started two and gave up just 1 run to the Philadephia Phillies. Against the Padres in his other start he was stellar again, that time giving up no runs and 4 hits. Success has seemed to carry over into 2014, where he pitched another scoreless 5 innings against the Nationals in his first start of the year. There are always a few pitchers that emerge out of nowhere every season, Hale may be one of them if this continues. Jenrry Mejia played the part of a solid starting option for the Mets as well. He started only 5 games, but like Hale, impressed everyone too. He allowed over 3 runs only once in those 5 starts and held a 2.30 ERA. Like Hale, there has been a carry over effect as well for Mejia. In his first start of the season he gave up just a run in 6 innings pitched. I like Hale to potentially have a breakout campaign, but Mejia should be fine in the Mets' rotation, too. I was expect a number of 7 here, so I am happy to see the 7.5. I'll take the UNDER 7.5. The math points to a low scoring game in Atlanta.

DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW YORK METS AT ATLANTA BRAVESSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: ATLANTA BRAVES -138FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I will go on frequent rants regarding old school managing that is in complete conflict with proven statistical data based on what now amounts to decades of sabermetric study. One such area where there’s been a good deal of conversation and revelation involves batting order construction. According to the metrics, a team’s best hitter is best served hitting in the two hole.
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I have no argument whatsoever with hitting the best guy in the third spot, metrics be damned. But one thing that is crystal clear is that many skippers are doing a bad job with their lineups by insisting on putting a contact, move ‘em along type in that second spot, and this is simply not a very good move from a probability standpoint. However, it’s not the worst maneuver either, particularly with pitching dominating as it is right now, making even single runs critical.
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What’s unacceptable is putting the worst hitter on the team in the #2 hole, which is what Fredi Gonzalez was doing by spotting BJ Upton as his second hitter. And he was paying for it, as Upton not only is a low BA and OBP type, he’s also not much at just making contact. But Gonzalez made the right move last night, as he moved Andrelton Simmons up to that second spot and in fact, didn’t bother to start the badly struggling Upton. The move paid off as the Braves got some early offense and it proved huge as Atlanta held off a late Mets charge to get the 4-3 win.
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I’m expecting some carryover here as the Braves wind up their series with the pesky Mets. Jennry Mejia is yet another live young arm for the Mets, and he’s hardly a pushover. But Mejia is also not a long distance pitcher and while the NY pen has been better lately after a terrible start to the season, I don’t mind the idea of what should be multiple innings against the bullpen.
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David Hale goes for the home team, and he’s off a pretty solid initial outing. Hale also has the advantage of never having been faced by any of the Mets, while several Braves have at least gotten a little action against Mejia.
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My primary motivation here is the Atlanta offense, though. I’m hoping Gonzalez maintains the same formula he used last night, as I think there’s a decent chance the Braves could put up some decent numbers here. The number is not unreasonable, and while I can’t call this a value spot, I see the Braves being playable tonight.

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Mets at BravesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves and the Mets wrap up their series behind a pair of relatively new pitchers. David Hale's first start went well this season giving up just five hits and two walks in five innings in Washington against the Nationals. Hale is making his first start at home this season and his first career start against New York. He'll face a Mets offense that has been awful this year and has struggled to produce too many runs. Hale is backed by a solid bullpen who should be able to keep NY down themselves. Jenrry Mejia won his first start giving up one run and four hits in six innings to the Reds at home. He struck out eight while walking five. He'll face an Atlanta offense that has terrible numbers themselves. Multiple hitters in the lineup are struggling and will continue to do so against a live arm like Mejia. He faced the Braves in Atlanta last September allowing four runs and six hits in five innings. These two have played two unders so far this season so why not press our luck and go for game #3.