Jimmy Boyd
Golden State Warriors -11
Despite already surpassing last year's 47 wins, the Warriors are still fighting to secure a spot in the playoffs. Golden State is in a pretty good position to do so. They have a 2.5-game lead over 9th place Memphis with just 5 games left on the schedule. However, they are just 1-game ahead of 7th place Dallas and 1.5-games in front of 8th place Phoenix. The last thing the Warriors want to do is fall back in the standings and have to face either Oklahoma City or San Antonio in the first round.
I believe that will serve as more than enough motivation tonight to not only win but cover this large spread against the Nuggets. Denver comes in off a 123-116 home win over the Rockets, but are just 4-16 over their last 20 road games and have lost six straight away from home overall. While the Nuggets have continued to play hard down the stretch, there's a little less incentive here having won at Golden State in the previous matchup. That's just another motivational edge favoring the Warriors, who don't take losing at home lightly.
This is also a difficult spot for Denver, who will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and off that big win over the Rockets. The Nuggets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on no rest.
Home teams who have won between 60% to 75% of their games that have beaten the spread by 18 or more combined points over their last 3 games are 98-58 ATS versus teams who have won between 40% to 49% of their games since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of Golden State.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -117
Rarely ever will you get Cliff Lee as this small of a home favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage Thursday night and back one of the best starters in the game at a tremendous price, and I recommend you do the same.
Lee went 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA in 2011, 6-9 with a 3.16 ERA in 2012, and 14-8 with a 2.87 ERA in 2013. He got rocked in his first start of the season this year at Texas, but that's why he's being undervalued. He bounced back by pitching seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win at Chicago last time out to get back to reality.
Milwaukee (6-2) is simply overvalued right now due to its hot start to the season. It swept the defending champion Red Sox in Fenway, which has its hype through the roof. By season's end, I believe you'll see that this team isn't a serious contender to win the NL Central. I'll gladly fade the Brewers while they're overvalued.
The Phillies are scoring 5.4 runs/game against right-handed starters this season, while the Brewers are putting up just 3.0 runs/game against southpaws. Lee is 18-6 (+15.3 units) against the money line after his team allowed 9 or more runs in two straight games in his career. Philadelphia is 47-22 (+30.2 units) after allowing 8 runs or more in two straight games since 1997. Bet the Phillies Thursday.
Bill Biles
Toronto Blue Jays -205
R.A. Dickey looks to build off a solid start vs the Yankees. Toronto looks for the sweep of the Astros. I don't believe the Astros lineup is strong enough to score enough runs of Dickey to win. Blue Jays will get at least 5 runs in this one and win.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia Phillies -117
With the Brewers riding a 5-game winning streak and the Phillies having lost 3 straight, I believe it's created some great value on Philadelphia at home. Not only will the Phillies be motivated to avoid getting swept in their home opening series, but they will have ace Cliff Lee on the mound.
Lee was fortunate to get a win his first start at Texas, as he allowed 8 runs on 11 hits over just 5 innings of work. He showed solid improvement in his next start, throwing 7 shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Cubs.
I believe today's forecast will help Lee and the Phillies pull out a victory. There's expected to be a 10 mph wind blowout straight out to center. Lee is more than capable of keeping the ball in the park, as he's pretty even in terms of his ground ball/fly ball rate. It's also worth mentioning that he's got 32 strikeouts over his last 3 starts vs the Brewers.
Milwaukee will counter with Marco Estrada, who I think is in for a rough day with the wind blowing out. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher and has not fared well against the Phillies. In two career starts vs Philadelphia, Estrada has an awful 9.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP.
Hollywood Sports
New York at Atlanta
Prediction: Under
New York (3-5) has seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They send out Mejia who had encouraging start this season by allowing only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Reds after sporting a 2.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in limited work last season. The Under is 3-1-1 in New York's last 5 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Mejia should fare well against this Atlanta team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
The Braves (5-3) have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. They counter with Hale who did not allow a run in 5 innings of work against Washington in his first start this season after posting a 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his eleven innings of work last September. Hale should enjoy another strong outing against this Mets team that has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Take the Under in this one.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. Vancouver
Pick: Colorado
The Colorado Avalanche should have no problem with the Vancouver Canucks tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Turmoil - After being eliminated from playoff contention, there's some house cleaning going on in Vancouver as already GM Mike Gillis has been axed and Trevor Linden is now in charge. You have to wonder if coach John Tortorella is going to be the next to go. This season has just been a massive disappointment on all fronts and over the last five games the team has been outscored 15-6, losing four times.
2. Surging - While the Canucks are done for the year, the Avs appear to be just getting warmed up. They haven't suffered a regulation loss in eight games (7-0-1) and during that time they've given up less than two goals per game. As a result, they now trail St. Louis by only two points in the Central Division. If everything goes their way tonight, they could end up tied with the Blues!
3. X-Factor - Colorado hasn't had much luck at all here in Rogers Centre, but things have changed on both sides. The Avs are much better this year compared to recent seasons while Vancouver is missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in five seasons.
Wunderdog
Oakland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +135
The Oakland A's have won the AL West two straight seasons with what appears to be a lesser roster than some of their division counterparts. Oakland's extra inning win last night gives them eight straight triumphs vs. the Twins. Oakland may find the late innings more difficult to navigate this year, as Grant Balfour has departed for Jim Johnson, who blew the save yesterday. Oakland starters have allowed 3 or fewer runs in all eight games this season, and that variance will catch up to them soon, and Minnesota has been swinging the bats rather well. Oakland is just 3-8 in Strailys' last 11 starts to a total of 7 to 8.5, including 0-4 on the road. The Twins break through this afternoon, so play them in this one.
Chase Diamond
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Play: Arizona +125
Late night game between the 3-8 Arizona and the 6-3 Giants. Arizona will be desperate tonight and needing a win I believe the whole team will be doing their absolute best. Randall Delgado was awful in his first start and for that matter so was Vogelsong. I always love to take a desperate team when no ones expecting a win. Only 31% of the public is backing the Dbacks here yet this line is moving and moving fast opened at +133.
LT Profits
San Antonio vs Dallas
Pick: Under 201
It could be a lower scoring game than expected when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Dallas Mavericks Thursday. The Spurs figure to give a good effort after a surprisingly bad loss at Minnesota Thursday, but they are missing some offensive weapons with Tony Parker out and Manu Ginobili doubtful, and even Tim Duncan is having his minutes monitored with the playoffs coming up as he played just 20 minutes Tuesday. With that said, San Antonio is probably a better defensive team with the younger players on the floor. The Mavericks have now lost eight straight games to the Spurs while averaging just 95.6 points those games and this is not really a big a game for them, as one win in their last two games vs. Phoenix and Memphis probably gets them in the playoffs. The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the Spurs’ last five games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.
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Philadelphia +110 over TAMPA BAYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Anders Lindback is coming off a shutout win against the Maple Leafs but Toronto’s heart was elsewhere after its collapse down the stretch. Fact is, Lindback is pure garbage and these Philly snipers figure to put a few behind him. Prior to his last game, Lindback posted save percentages of .862, .857, .852, .893, .800, .857, .840, .862 and .842 in nine of his last 10 games. His .884 save % this season is the worst in the NHL of any goalie that has started five games or more. Besides that, the Lightning aren’t even playing that well. Tampa has four wins over their last nine games and three of those victories occurred against the Sabres, Islanders and Maple Leafs, the former two in extra time. Tampa’s current form coupled with Lindback in net is instant fade material.
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The Flyers still can gain home-ice advantage in the first round. They trail the New York Rangers by two points for second place in the Metropolitan Division and have a game in hand. After a modest funk in which they recently lost four straight, the Flyers responded with 10 goals combined in back-to-back victories over Buffalo and Florida. Among those four defeats prior to winning its last two, Philadelphia lost to both St. Louis and Boston in OT so the four-game losing streak isn’t as bad as it looks. Philadelphia is a powerful offensive team that has plenty to play for. Getting a tag with them against Lindback in net is as sweet as it gets.
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CAROLINA -½ +142 over WashingtonFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. With Detroit and Columbus both winning last night, the Capitals were eliminated from playoff contention. Playing their first game since being officially eliminated doesn’t figure to prompt a big response. The Capitals have won two in a row and one of those occurred against St. Louis on the road but in that game they managed just 22 shots on net and scored four times. Don’t be fooled by any Washington win, as they are as beatable as any team in the NHL and then some. Amazingly enough, Alex Ovechkin did not record a single point in 5 on 5 play in the entire month of March. To beat the Capitals, all you need to do is play hard and avoid penalties.
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The Hurricanes play hard every game. They were eliminated from post-season a couple of weeks ago but they continue to be undervalued. They’ve already defeated the Caps in three of four matches this season and in the one game they lost, they outshot Washington 41-29. In fact, the ‘Canes outshot, out-chanced and outplayed the Caps in every game they have played against one another this season and there is nothing whatsoever suggesting this one will be any different.
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Oakland -½ -103 (1st 5 innings)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Dan Straily may seem like a starter with a limited ceiling given his mediocre 4.25 career ERA. But there are more reasons for optimism if you give him a closer look. The high strikeout rates he posted in the minors are no mirage. He owns an elite 11.1% swinging strike rate and he is dominant against RH bats. Straily whiffed seven batters in 5.1 innings in his first start of the year against the Indians. This all bodes well against the Twins because Minnesota leads the AL in striking out with 82 already. That’s eight more than the Angels, who have struck out the second most times in the AL with 74. The kicker here, however, is that Mike Pelfrey is on the hill for the Twins.
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Recovering from Tommy John surgery early in the 2012 season, Mike Pelfrey surprised many by starting 2013 in the Twins’ rotation. After going 5-13 with a bloated ERA, even more were surprised that he’s in the rotation this year. Pelfrey's track record isn't very impressive. He’s never struck out many batters and with league-average control, that’s a lot of base runners. When hit% and strand% are out of whack, things get ugly, as they were in the first half of 2013. Pelfrey improved in the second half but that was mostly due to hit% and strand% correction. His skills showed that it still wasn’t an impressive performance. Despite Target Field being a pitcher’s park (-25% LH HR), Pelfrey struggled at home with a .319/.374/.450 line. The lack of dominance can be seen in his 21%/34% dominant start/disaster start split. Another point of concern is that due to the TJS recovery, he had 133 more IP in 2013 than 2012. Mike Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and too many batted balls miss gloves. For that matter, 2010 wasn't real either; the quest to reclaim that season is what is keeping him employed. Don't be taken in, as Pelfrey might be the biggest stiff in baseball.
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N.Y. Mets +127 over ATLANTAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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David Hale has made three career starts in the majors and has some impressive numbers. Hale was outstanding in two starts late last year, recording a 1.93 xERA (1.09 ERA) with outstanding command. In his first start this year against the Nationals, Hale went five full and allowed just five hits and zero earned runs. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, Hale has been a very consistent minor league pitcher since 2012. He comes at hitters with a three-pitch arsenal featuring a low-90s fastball, plus slider, and improved change-up. His delivery is clean and easy, allowing him to show good arm strength and easy velocity. However, minor league hitters batted .279 against him. In that first start against Washington, Hale had a line-drive rate of 31%, suggesting balls were hit hard but right at people. He ended that game with a 100% strand rate and a 1.40 WHIP. The kid has upside for sure but he doesn’t strike out many and his Major League career is a tiny sample size right now that reveals some flaws. With a 0.56 ERA in three MLB starts and pitching for the Braves, Hale is overvalued.
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Jenrry Mejia had an electric spring several seasons ago, throwing in the mid-90s with tons of movement. Elbow issues have doomed him ever since. He had TJ surgery in May 2011, then got another taste of MLB action in mid-2013 when he posted outstanding skills across the board, which included a 58% groundball rate and nine K’s per 9 innings. In his first start against the Reds, Mejia went six full innings and allowed just four hits and one earned run while striking out eight batters. True to form, Mejia’s groundball rate in in his first start was 57%. Mejia did walk five in that game but his stuff is no nasty that he can overcome walks better than most. He owns a mid-90s, sinking fastball that misses a lot of bats. Indeed this game is a toss-up but with the Mets having the more proven pitcher and at least a 50% chance of winning, the value is on their side.
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Arizona +112 over SAN FRANCISCOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Randall Delgado went 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 116 IP for the D-Backs a year ago. It was a bag of mixed results for this former top prospect after his June call-up. Delgado traded in Ks for more control but the net gain was minimal, especially with a cruel hr/f. The flashes he's shown, however, are promising and you can completely ignore his first start of the year, as it came in Colorado and that park is as tough as it gets on pitchers. Truth is, Delgado has an elite groundball rate of 61% in 20 of his past 27 major league starts. His strikeout rate is creeping up and although he’s still a risk, Delgado is a far better option taking back a tag than Ryan Vogelsong is spotting one. This one is all about fading Vogelsong.
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Vogelsong got lit up in the first half of last season before getting shelved for three months (broken pitching hand). Upon his return, his second half results were much better but his skills were actually worse and that’s why we always look under the surface. Vogelsong had been significantly outpitching his skills during his 2011-12 resurgence so a return to relevance hinges on him rediscovering that secret sauce. That’s a longshot at best. Vogelsong's meltdown was both a product of bad luck and skills deterioration. He allowed more line drives—a lot more line drives—than he had the previous two seasons as opponents hit almost .300. Vogelsong's control strayed a bit and his K rate abandoned him, especially after he returned from missing two months with a broken pitching hand. He allowed fewer fly balls (as many turned into line drives) and those fly balls left the park at a higher rate. A higher hit % and lower strand % also helped do him in. You can pin Vogelsong's woes on several factors and not all were his own doing. But the overriding problem was that opponents made contact more frequently and when they did they hit the ball harder. While the Giants exercised an option to bring him back for another year, there is plenty of risk in assuming the 36-year-old will bounce back and be anything near the pitcher he was in 2011-12. Avoid.
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Lee Williams
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7.5
This Total certainly isn't this low because Tom Koehler is on mound.Most of this number is premised on expectations that Strasburg will be in dominant form and this is something at least in first 2 appearances he hasent been.Marlins are hitting .292 vs righties and Nats are hitting .255, until Strasburg shows he is in top form we feel this is a low total as Koehler cannot be relied on to shut anyone down and we expect Nats to get 4 or 5 runs here.Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and we feel this will get Over total
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Phoenix at NashvilleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Coyotes have picked a bad time to slump, now 0-2-2 over their last four games to drop two points behind Dallas for the last playoff spot in the West, which could be determined by a Saturday night showdown in Phoenix if the Coyotes don't slip again tonight in Nashville. Phoenix is likely to get top GK Mike Smith back int he nets after missing two weeks with a knee injury, but goals have dried up lately for the Coyotes, and the Preds, even though out of the playoff chase after Tuesday's 3-2 loss at Dallas, have been stingy of late, especially with GK Pekka Rinne in top form (Nashville has only allowed five goals over its last three games).
Dave Price
New York Yankees +104
The Yankees are showing value in the home underdog role considering they are 36-17 in their last 53 home games versus teams that have a losing record. Plus, Clay Buchholz still has some kinks to work out after giving up 6 runs on 13 hits (2 home runs) in 4 1-3 innings of a 7-6 loss to Milwaukee in his first start. Buchholz has had his share of struggles with the Yankees, going 5-5 with an ERA of 5.32 and a WHIP of 1.601 in 12 starts against them. Michael Pineda pitched well in his first start of the season in a losing effort, allowing only 1 run on five hits while striking out five without a walk over six innings. The Yankees are 37-13 the last 3 seasons in home games after 3 consecutive games versus division rivals. Take New York.
Sam Martin
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Clay Buchholz didn't look all that great in his season-opening loss against Milwaukee - giving up six runs on 13 hits in only 4 1/3 innings of work. But before we put too much stock into that bad outing, let's remember that Buchholz was one of the best pitchers all of last season, and was a perfect 10-0 (team start record) in the role of road favorite.
Buchholz also dominated the Yankees last year in all three starts - going 3-0 in the win/loss column while only giving up one earned run (also one unearned run) in 18 combined innings of work. We will not overreact to Buchholz's last start and instead back him putting more faith in last year's overall results than a one-game sample.