Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Yankees over the Red Sox in the Bronx.
Willing to give the Yankees a play this Thursday night in the start of their 4 game set with their arch-rival Red Sox.
Boston had little issue last September with New York, winning 6 of the 7 series meetings en-route to their World Series title, but the BoSox have not exactly been tearing through the circuit just yet, and the fact that both Victorino and Middlebrooks are on the shelf, while their former centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is now patrolling center in pinstripes has also forced Boston through an adjustment period early this year.
True, the Yankees are not exactly on fire either, but they are at home for this one, and they well remember the beating they absorbed last September at the hands of the Sox.
This will be Boston's first look in a long while at Michael Pineda who turned in a very respectable 6 innings of 1 run ball in a hard luck loss at Toronto in game he also fanned 5. Pineda will have the advantage of Boston not exactly knowing what to expect.
Clay Buhholz counters and his first start was a disaster as he allowed 13 hits and 6 runs in under 5 innings of work in a home loss to Milwaukee. Fluke? Could be, but it also could be that Buchholz is going to break from the gate slowly this season.
Going to side with the Yankees to draw first blood.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Chicago Cubs, and make note I want you listing the Bucs' Gerrit Cole.
I won't sugarcoat it, I will be looking for value every time I see Cole take the mound this season. I'm not a Pirates fan, but I have become a fan of this young right-hander. Last season he took the league by storm and pitched well over the first month or so, of the season. After a rough patch mid-summer, he turned it on in the end.
Though he hasn't been in the bigs all that long, he is looking for his third career win against the Cubs, whom he beat twice last season, striking out 13 in 13 innings. And make note, that includes a victory in Wrigley Field.
Last Friday against the Phillies, Philadelphia's hitters were 6-for-26 against Wood, a bleak batting average of .230.
A win in today's rubber game would give the Pirates three straight series wins to start the season for just the fourth time the past 50 years. Lay the cheap chalk and list only Cole today.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Brad Wilton
For your comp play this Thursday, going to side with the Dallas Mavericks as the small home favorite over the current #1 seed in the West, the San Antonio Spurs.
I feel a lot of people will get suckered into backing the Spurs plus the basket as they look to secure the overall #1 seed, and San Antonio did see Oklahoma City trim a game off that lead with the win at the Clippers last night, but I still think this is Dallas' game tonight.
The Mavericks are currently holding down the #7 seed, but they can ill-afford to go on a slide here to end the regular season, or they may be watching from the sidelines.
Dallas is back home after winning 4 straight on the road, and they do catch the Spurs minus Parker and Ginobili this Thursday night.
The Spurs have won 8 straight meetings between the teams, so you have to ask yourself why is Dallas listed as the small favorite here?
Like I said, I think this one could very well be a trap game.
Take the Mavs to snap their 8 game slide against the Spurs with the home win and cover tonight.
3♦ DALLAS
Craig Davis
My free play for Thursday is the Under in the Denver-Golden State contest.
While it may seem on paper that this game is a clear cut over, I beg to differ.
Denver is coming off a 123-point performance last night vs. Houston... but they turned around, got on a plane and headed for Oakland for tonight's game against an improved defensive Golden State team.
True, it's hard to say the Warriors and defense in the same sentence, but that's exactly what Marc Jackson is trying to instill in his young players... defensive intensity. Golden State clearly plays defense better at home than they do on the road, and we already know (according to Jackson) they look at tonight's game as a major challenge to their defense.
Figuring they need every win to hang on to their 6-seed, they need to win out because the Mavs, Suns and Grizzlies are hot on their tail. Defense is the only way to beat the Nuggets, because not many teams can score with them on any given night.
Sure, the Warriors are one of those few teams that probably could keep up with them offensively, but that's not going to get them playoff wins... defense will. Expect a solid defensive effort from the home team and a lower scoring game than Vegas expects.
3♦ DENVER-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
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Denver is in a back-to-back spot and is missing key personnel, while Golden St. is at home and well-rested and looking to get into a nice groove going into the postseason. The Warriors have won back-to-back home games by 61 combined points and they won't mind putting it to the Nuggets, who beat Golden St. in the previous meeting in the Mile High City.
Bob Balfe
SF Giants -115
Giants/Diamondbacks Over 8
Randall Delgado is not big league material as a starting pitcher. This guy gets shelled when he pitches and the game is over in the first few innings and to make matters worse the Arizona bullpen is not pitching much better. Arizona has been hitting the ball pretty well themselves, but not generating that many runs. I think the winner of this game gets to 8 runs themselves. This is a perfect spot to play side and total. Take the Giants and take the Over.
Ian Cameron
Washington at Carolina
Play: Carolina -125
I’m not expecting an inspired effort from the Washington Capitals tonight after being forced to watch the Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets clinch the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference last night – officially eliminating the Caps from the playoff chase. This is a major disappointment for a team with talent but defensive shortcomings and an inability to score goals. Alex Ovechkin failed to record a single point at even strength in the entire month of March with his damage coming via the power play. It just goes to show how one dimensional this team is offensively. If you shut down Washington’s power play, you can beat them. The Capitals thought acquiring Jaroslav Halak at the trade deadline would upgrade their goaltending but he has struggled mightily. I don’t expect Washington to bring a solid effort tonight playing their first game since being eliminated from the postseason. It has been a tough season for the Carolina Hurricanes, one filled with inconsistency and key injuries but the Canes continue to play hard. They were eliminated from postseason play a few weeks ago but they continue to give an honest effort each night and have managed to beat playoff bound Pittsburgh and another possible playoff team Dallas in recent games. Carolina has defeated Washington in three of the four meetings this season. This is Carolina’s final home game of the season which I think will provide an extra bit of motivation and incentive. I expect them to deliver a victory to their fans tonight against the flat and uninspired Capitals.
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for today is going to be in Major League Baseball, as I like the Chicago White Sox plus the money at home against the Cleveland Indians. Do not list pitchers in this one, as I think the South Siders get it done regardless of who goes and will be playing this straight action.
Why the Indians are favored - Perhaps it's because the Tribe dominated the White Sox last season, and now looks to pick up from last year and nab the team's 15th straight win over Chicago, a streak that would tie the second longest in franchise history against one opponent.
Why the White Sox should be favored - Chicago is handing the ball to John Danks, and I like him better than Danny Salazar. I know I said not to worry about listing pitchers, but I have to make mention that Danks is clearly the better hurler tonight. Danks is a quick worker with an over the top arm angle and three solid pitches, including two- and four-seam fastballs that range from 89- to 94 miles per hour).
In conclusion, why CHICAGO is my SMART PLAY in this game - This is one helluva a revenge series for the South Siders, particularly in Chicago. The Indians went 17-2 in last year's season series and six of their 14 consecutive wins came in September, during a 21-6 overall spree that sent the Indians to the playoffs.
Cleveland has outscored the White Sox 102-45 during the 14-game winning streak, and I think it'll begin on the mound tonight, as the White Sox will look to make it impossible for the Tribe to move baserunners. That's where Danks comes in, as I think he'll use his arsenal to get things done.
3♦ CHICAGO
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ NY Mets Under 7.5: Both of these starters had great first outings this year, as Jenrry Mejia allowed just 1 ER on 4 hits in 6 innings vs the Reds, while David Hale pitched 5 shutout innings vs the Nationals in his first start of the year. Those pitchers will be going up against a couple of struggling offenses is this one. The Mets offense was to be better with the addition of Granderson this year, but he has hit just ,138 with 1 homer out the gate, while the Mets as a team have hit just .190 (30th) and have scored just 3.5 rpg (24th) on the year. For the Braves, they come in hitting just .227 on the year (25th), while scoring just 2.38 rpg (29th). These two offenses are really having a hard time in the early and it's hard to feel that they will get going in this one vs a couple of pitchers gthat they haven't seen all that much so far. I look for a 3-2 type game in this one.
Arizona/ San Francisco Over 8 (-120) I had the the Over in the Giants/ D-Backs game last night and it was an easy winner. I look for another easy one tonight. Randal Delgado has had ERA's of 4.37 and 4.26 the last two years and he started out this year on the rough side, allowing 6 ERs in just 4.2 innings of work so far. We also note that he has a career 5.21 ERA in 22 career appearances (20 starts) on the road. Now he faces a Giants squad that has been hot out the gate offensively, as they have averaged 5.56 rpg thus far. The Arizona offense has been decent this year, averaging 4.09 rpg in the early going. Now we note that Current D-Back hitters have hit .284 with 3 Hrs and 11 RBIs off of Vogelsong in their career. Speaking of Ryan, he has really struggled the last year, posting a 5.73 ERA in 2013 and a 9.00 ERA after 1 start this year. He also has an 8.51 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the D-Backs, including an 8.40 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them in this park. Both offenses should get the better of the pitching in this one and put up at least 10 runs.
2 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -122 over Milwaukee: Milwaukee took the first two in the series, but I see this one going the way of the Phillies. Cliff Lee was rocked in his first outing vs the Rangers, but then came back to throw 7 shutout inning in Chicago. Despite the 6.00 ERA, Cliff is 2-0 on the year and now 19-9 in his career in the months of March/ April. He is also 23-16 with a 2.82 ERA in 52 career starts in this park. Marco Estrada had a nice start to open up his year as he allowed just 1 ER in 5.2 innings of work at Boston. Marco, though, has struggled with the Phils some as he has 2 starts vs them without a decision, but he does have a 9.00 ERA in those two starts. The offenses are fairly even as the Brewers average 5 rpg, while the Phils average 4.88 rpg, but the pitching edge goes to the Phils, plus this is a team trying to stave off a sweep. lets also note that this is the 6th straight road game for the Brewers and they have a home series vs Pittsburgh on deck, so they may not be fully focused for this one. Phils salvage one vs the Brewers.
Analytics Trading
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Pick: San Antonio Spurs
Tonight the San Antonio Spurs will be traveling to Dallas to face the Mavericks in the first game of a TNT double header. The Spurs are coming off a loss to the Timberwolves in Minnesota where as the Mavericks are riding a 4 game road win streak.
The Spurs are sitting in the #1 seed in the Western Conference with the Mavericks currently in the 7 spot with the Suns only a 1/2 game back. There is nothing the Spurs would like more than to see tonight's game be a 1st round playoff match-up. Spurs have won the last 8 meetings between these 2 team covering the spread in 6 of those.
Spurs are also 7-2 ATS on the road after a road loss and even without Parker and Ginobli tonight we expect the Spurs to come out motivated to get the win and help push Dallas down into that 8th playoff spot.
Larry Ness
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has lost Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the season due to elbow surgery, while Mike Minor is on the DL with tendinitis in his left shoulder. That trio combined for 30 wins last year, with Medlen leading the way with 15 while his 3.11 ERA was the lowest for any regular member of the rotation. However, Atlanta’s rotation that has been one of the biggest surprises in MLB. One of the moves Atlanta made in an effort to soften the blow of the injuries to the above-mentioned starters, was to sign Ervin Santana to a one-year, $14.1 million contract and forfeited a first-round draft pick -- 26th overall -- as compensation. He went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA with Kansas City last year, after spending eight with the Los Angeles Angels.
Santana made his Atlanta debut last night and pitched EIGHT scoreless innings with six Ks and not a single walk. The bullpen allowed three runs in the 9th but the Braves managed a 4-3 win. After Santana's impressive Atlanta debut, David Hale is next in line to keep a remarkable string of starts going Thursday night at home against the New York Mets. Atlanta hasn't had a starting pitcher allow more than two runs yet this season with Braves starters going 4-3 while posting a 1.37 ERA and .172 opponents' batting average.
Hale has never faced the Mets and he'll try to make them the fourth team he's had a successful start against in as many tries in his career. The right-hander went 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two September outings and got off to a promising 2014 start in Friday's 2-1 victory at Washington. Hale left with a lead and settled for a no-decision after throwing five innings of scoreless ball, yielding five hits and a pair of walks while striking out four on an efficient pitch count of 73 while dealing with a stomach bug. "It's good to be back in normal health and everything," Hale told the team's official website. "I think I'll be feeling pretty good." Hale has allowed one ER over 16 innings (0.56 ERA) with an 18-3 KW ratio in his first three MLB starts!
Hale will be opposed by Jenrry Mejia, who won his first start of 2014, 4-3 over Cincinnati (6 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER / 8 Ks but FIVE walks). Let’s NOT forget that the Braves won more games (56-25) than any MLB team at home last year and their moneyline mark of plus-$1,576 at Turner Field was MLB’s second-best mark. Expect the Braves to win here, earning them a series win in their first of the 2014 season.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Indians -125
The Indians are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings, including 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago. The White Sox are 0-5 in Danks' last 5 home starts versus the Indians, 5-17 in his last 22 starts overall, 1-6 in his last 7 home starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. The Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 39-14 in their last 53 games as a road favorite. Cleveland gets the call.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE (+105) over Philadelphia
Milwaukee is red hot having won five in a row and they are absolutely crushing the ball! Brewers have scored 36 runs and have a team batting average of .375 during their 5 game winning streak and have pounded the Phils the last two nights. Philadelphia sends Cliff Lee to the hill tonight and he has not pitched well despite his 2-0 record. Lee has a 6.00 ERA so far this season and opponents have hit .375 against him. That is not the kind of ERA you want to have against the booming Brewer bats. Milwaukee starter Marco Estrada has been pitching well since the All Star break last year. Since then he has a 2.10 ERA and has held opponents to a .169 batting average. He only allowed 1 earned run in his last outing against Boston and will shut down the Phils. Take the red hot Brew Crew!
Nelly
Brewers / Phillies Under
Milwaukee has 19 runs the last two games to carry a 5-0 run heading into this series finale Thursday night in Philadelphia. After facing right-handers in the back-of-the rotation the past two games, the challenge will be steeper tonight with Cliff Lee on the mound. Milwaukee has faced two left-handed starters this season, managing only six runs in those two games with 15 hits in the two games combined. Lee is 2-0 on the season and after a rough start in Texas on opening day he delivered seven shutout innings against the Cubs in his last start. This will be his first home start of the season and Lee still has some of best control in baseball. Lee had two quality starts against the Brewers last season and the shaky Philadelphia bullpen will likely only see limited action tonight. Milwaukee's bullpen has been the best in baseball this season and overall the Brewers are allowing fewer than three runs per game on average. Marco Estrada was excellent in his 2014 debut allowing just four hits at Boston in an eventual win for the Brewers. The Phillies scored 14 runs on opening day but in seven games since Philadelphia has averaged just 3.5 runs per game and the Phillies are hitting just .246 against right-handed pitching on the season. After back-to-back high scoring games the series finale should feature lower numbers in this is a rare total above 7 with Lee on the mound.