Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 11

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Toronto at Detroit
The Tigers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Jays and build on their 6-0 record in Doug Fister's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135)

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 17.186; Cubs (Feldman) 14.182
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); No Total
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); N/A

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.215; San Diego (Marquis) 15.841
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+150); Over

Game 905-906: Toronto at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Johnson) 14.524; Detroit (Fister) 15.550
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 907-908: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.361; Cleveland (McCallister) 15.804
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 909-910: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.074; Boston (Aceves) 15.700
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.512; LA Angels (Vargas) 15.834
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Game 913-914: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Grimm) 15.147; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.748
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 14.904; Washington (Haren) 16.018
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155); Over

Bryan Leonard

Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox and Nationals will wrap up their interleague series on Thursday when Dylan Axelrod takes the ball against Dan Haren. Axelrod paid his dues over six seasons in the minor leagues before making the White Sox Opening Day rotation this season. One thing Axelrod excelled at in the minors was avoiding the long ball, allowing just 25 home runs in 572.1 minor league innings. Axelrod is a ground ball pitcher and did a tremendous job in his first outing avoiding the barrel of the bat. Axelrod allowed just three hits and only one line drive over 5.2 innings in his first start. Entering Wednesday's action, the White Sox have one of the top bullpens of the young season so far.

Dan Haren had the opposite kind of start. Haren, who is trying to get his career back on track, allowed four home runs and nine hits over four innings in his last start. Haren is trending in the wrong direction, with a drop in swinging strike rate in each of the last four seasons, to go along with a drop in velocity and more balls put in play. Against a homer-happy White Sox lineup, Haren could be in for another rough outing.

Jim Feist

Thunder vs. Warriors
Play: Under 205

Oklahoma City and Golden State have a lot of young legs who like to run, but the defenses are very good and very underrated. Oklahoma City is 12th in the NBA in points allowed, 2nd in field goal shooting defense allowing 42% shooting. OKC is on an 8-2-2 run under the total, and 6-1-1 under the total on the road. Golden State is 4th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense because second-year coach Mark Jackson has demanded better defense and gotten it. The under is 10-3 against the Western Conference. These teams met on this court on January 23, under the total in a 104-99 Golden State win and look for more defense than oddsmakers expect. Play Thunder/Warriors Under the Total.

Dave Cokin

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Oakland Athletics

This is not exactly the start the big spending Angels envisioned, as they are really scuffling to open the season. But it's also not exactly an unfamiliar feeling for the Halos as they went through the same thing out of the 2012 gate. An inability to hit with runners on base, very shaky bullpen work...yeah, it's deja vu all over again for this entry. Don't be surprised if another loss ends uo as the result tonight. All AJ Griffin basically has to do is show up for Oakland and the team wins. The A's are 14-3 when Griffin starts going back to his debut last season. Jason Vargas has pitched well in a small sample of starts in this ballpark, and after a rough spring training, the southpaw was okay in his first official start as an Angel. In fact, just off the pitching metrics, I give Vargas the edge tonight. But the team elements are all Oakland. In addition to that gaudy win percentage when Griffin goes, there's the current Oakland form. You don't have to twist my arm to get me interested in an underdog that's on a seven-game winning streak. You should be able to get about +120 here with the dog, and that's good enough to take a shot with the A's to finish off the series sweep.

Ray Monohan

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Any time King Felix Hernandez takes the mound you have to at least consider the Mariners as he can certainly dominate a game. This season he has been sharp but has just a 1-1 record to show for it. His numbers overall against Texas are not fantastic but I am down on the Rangers right now. Their lineup isn’t what is used to be and their pitching is thinner than ever. Tonight they are going with Justin Grimm on the hill. He made a few starts last season for the Rangers and got knocked around pretty good. Not huge value on the small card tonight but this game works.

Stephen Nover

Chicago White Sox +145

The Nationals have one weak spot in their starting pitching rotation - Dan Haren. Just like Roy Halliday, Haren is slipping fast. His velocity has been dropping for the last couple of years. He posted a 4.33 ERA last year with a losing record. Haren was smacked for six runs on nine hits in four innings against the Reds in his first game this season, including allowing four homers.

While Haren is trending downward, the arrow is pointing up for White Sox pitcher Dylan Axelrod, who allowed one unearned run and three hits in 5 2/3 innings during a 4-3 win against Seattle this past Saturday. Axelrod was 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his last four road starts in 2012. The Nationals have never seen Axelrod, while the White Sox are familiar with Haren, a right-hander who pitched for the Angels the past three seasons before coming to Washington.

Chicago has won 20 of its last 28 interleague games versus right-handed starters. The White Sox also have an edge at closer with a rested Addison Reed, who is 1-0 with three saves already. Nationals closer Rafael Soriano has thrown nearly 40 pitches during the past two games and has not been effective.

Ryan James

Blue Jays / Tigers Under

The Blue Jays have not been scoring a lot of runs to start the season. In fact, they have only scored more than 4 runs in three games this season. Those offensive struggles should continue today when the Blue Jays face Doug Fister from the Tigers. Fister has a 3.77 ERA in his career against Toronto and in those three starts the combined score from both teams has averaged just 7 runs per game. The most recent game ended with Fister picking up a win in a 4-1 game played at Toronto. The Blue Jays bullpen has been solid this season with a road ERA of 1.00 this season. Josh Johnson will get the start but don't be surprised to see Toronto pull him early if he shows any signs of trouble. Johnson is a solid pitcher who finished the 2011 season with a 1.64 ERA and the 2012 season with a 3.81 ERA. He should be able to go much deeper into this game against Detroit than he did against Boston and the Blue Jays bullpen should keep this game from getting out of hand. Take the under because this should be a very low scoring game.

Joseph D'Amico

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

LA is 5-3 but after a shaky start, the team has taken 4 of their L5 by playing solid baseball. Crawford, Gonzalez, and Ellis, have combined for 34 hits, 9 BBs, 12 Runs scored, and each are batting .357 or higher. Then throw in the mix, Ethier 's .320 BA and 8 hits, and the meat of this lineup is dangerous. They are starting to sync and as the team meshes, they get better and better. As far as their pitching goes, the Dodgers are #1 in the MLB in Quality Starts and WHIP, and are #2 in ERA at 2.15. Zack Greinke takes the mound here. The RH is 1-0, yielding just 2 hits, 0 BBs, fanning 6, in 6.3 IP over Pittsburgh. In his career, the ace is 1-0with a 3.00 ERA vs. San Diego. He faces a Padres team that is 2-6, averaging 3.25 RPG with just one solid outing. They have been outscored by 9, 4, 3, 3, 8, and 1. Their offense has 49 Ks and just 23 RBIs. They have seven players with 22 or more ABs and only Mike Hundley is hitting anything respectable at .318. The other six top out at .267 and go all the way down to 0.83. The team ranks 24th or worse in every offensive area while their pitching and defensive stats are worse ranking 29th in ERA at 5.64, 29th in WHIP at 1.63, 25th in Ks with 56, and 30th in Quality Starts with only 1. Oh yeah, they are also 23rd in Errors with 6. Jason Marquis gets the nod. The RH is 0-1, giving up 6 hits with an ERA of 3.00 vs. Colorado. In his 3 starts against LA, Marquis allowed 16 hits, walked 9, had 7 ERs and went 1-2. The Dodgers are 22-10 their L32 meetings over the Padres, 6-1 their L7 vs. RH starters, and 8-2 their L10 vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400. The Padres are 1-5 their L6 vs. the NL West, 3-9 their L12 vs. RH starters, and 2-5 their L7 games played at home. Take Los Angeles.

Jimmy Boyd

Oklahoma City -3½

There are few teams in the league that can keep pace with Oklahoma City’s 105.8 points per game and Golden State is not one of them. You should always play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oklahoma City when they are an excellent offensive team scoring 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team holding opponents to 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 50-19 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Defensively the Warriors have not played well this season giving up 99.9 points per game. In fact, the Oklahoma City defense is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game on the road and the offense is outscoring the Warriors by a full 5 points per game. Oklahoma City has a road record that is just two games back of Golden State’s record at home. The Thunder are the better team in this matchup and it will show today.

Jesse Schule

Ottawa Senators +117

After such an excellent start to the season, the Senators now find themselves in a dog fight to make the playoffs. They are one of four teams in the East tied with 44 points.

Ottawa has lost five straight, but they will have an excellent chance to snap that losing streak in Philadelphia tonight. The Flyers are out of the race, but they will try to salvage some pride in front of their home fans.
Good news for Ottawa, starting goaltender Craig Anderson is back in the lineup, he still leads the NHL in GAA and save percentage.

The Sens rank in the top three in the NHL in both goals against as well as killing penalties. With so much at stake for the Sens here, I expect them to lock things down defensively here, stifling the Flyers in a tight defensive battle.

The Flyers have been growing more and more impatient with starting goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, who was recently seen sleeping on the bench just minutes after being pulled from the net in a 4-1 loss to Winnipeg.

Bryzgalov is also reported to have fallen asleep during a team meeting earlier this week. The insomniac will apparently get the start in tonight's game. Don't sleep on this play on the Sens.

Bruce Marshall

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Many had wondered about the Boston bullpen eventually imploding. And Bosox fans are hoping that last night isn't a bad omen as closer Joel Hanrahan was ripped for five runs in the 9th inning of the Orioles' eventual 8-5 win. Success vs. Boston is nothing new for the O's, who have won 18 of the last 25 meetings in this series. Note that Baltimore starter Chris Tillman has posted a 1.52 ERA in his last four vs. the Bosox, including an 0.82 ERA in his last two at Fenway. Meanwhile Boston skipper John Farrell continues to gamble with reliever-turned starter Alfredo Aceves, who was hammered in his first start last week at Toronto.

Wunderdog

Colorado at Los Angeles
Pick: Under 5

Colorado scored a rare road win 4-1 in Anaheim last night, but as much as this team has surprised on occasion, they disappoint far too frequently. The biggest reason is their lack of scoring punch. The Avalanche have produced 2 goals or less in 24 games on the season including seven of their last eight. Los Angeles has regained the form on home ice that led them to a Stanley Cup win a year ago. In their last eight home games, the Kings have allowed 9 goals, or barely more than 1 per contest, and a dead Colorado offense isn't likely to do much of anything here. The Kings have allowed 14 goals in their last six at home, and have played to a 25-9 mark to the UNDER in their last 34 at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Go with the UNDER.

Art Aronson

New York vs. Chicago
Pick: Under

These teams have played each other three times this year: Chicago won 93-85 at home on December 8th. Chicago won 110-106 in New York on December 21st. The Bulls then won 108-101 in New York on January 11th. Game 1 went "under" the number, while Games 1 and 2 flew well above it. Because of the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, I believe we'll see a very tight, scrappy, low-scoring affair. New York is 51-26 overall, and 22-16 on the road. Chicago is 42-35 overall, and 22-17 at home. The Knicks have seen the total go "under" the number in 19 of 36 road games this year, while Chicago has seen it dip below the posted number in 24 of 38 home games. New York has won 13 straight and has subsequently clinched the division (note that the Knicks are in Cleveland tomorrow night). The Bulls have clinched a playoff spot, but are coming off a lacklustre 101-98 setback to the Raptors on Tuesday (note that Chicago is in Toronto tomorrow night). It's been New York which has had to deal with injuries and personnel issues down the stretch run, struggling to make the playoffs over the last few years. And it's been the Bulls who have typically surged towards the postseason over the final few weeks. And while Chicago has taken all three earlier meetings this season, there's no question which team is in the "drivers seat" right now. I believe the table is set for a tough defensive battle. How about you?

Ben Burns

Florida vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Winnipeg

I've backed the Jets in each of their last two games. They won both of those games by identical 4-1 margins.

This should be another good spot for them to earn an important two points.

This will be the fifth meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers have taken two of three at Florida. However, the Jets won the lone meeting here at Winnipeg. They've now beaten the Panthers by a combined score of 10-2 the last two times that they were a host in this series.

The Panthers have had a few nights off. That's not necessarily a good thing for them though. Including a 4-3 loss vs. Washington on 4/3, they're now a money-burning 5-15 (-12.4) the last 20 times that they had the previous three (or more) days off.

While the Panthers have won a few games recently, they still have the fewest points in the entire Eastern Conference.

While the Panthers are playing out the string, the Jets are in a dogfight to make the playoffs. If they want to achieve that goal, they can't afford to squander opportunities like this one. Consider laying the wood.