Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday April, 12

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +110 over PHOENIX

The Blackhawks are simply too dangerous to ignore as a pooch in any game because they’re more than capable of defeating this host. Much has been made about the goaltending edge the Coyotes have and while that may be true, Corey Crawford was a rookie a year ago when he was terrific in the series last year against Vancouver, especially in the final four games. Playing against an offensively challenged team like Phoenix, Crawford’s confidence can soar quickly. Some are also suggesting that Chicago has looked somewhat out of sorts this season. One can’t argue that they have for stretches but this is the playoffs and they appear to be hungry and extremely motivated. Its play during the stretch supports that. The Blackhawks are 11-2-3 since the trade deadline when GM Stan Bowman brought in Johnny Oduya to address a hole on defense. They've done it without captain Jonathan Toews, who is ready to go for this series. That’s huge. And they've done it with Duncan Keith serving a five-game suspension for elbowing Daniel Sedin in the head. This is high-end talent here with Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Keith and Brent Seabrook. The Coyotes counter with 40-year old Ray Whitney. The gutsy call of the first round would be to pick Phoenix. And you really want to because it would be nice to see such a hard-working team finally rewarded after two first-round exits the past two years. You want to see one of the game's top coaches in Dave Tippett rewarded for his countless efforts in maximizing the talent he's been given and you'd like to see captain Shane Doan and his teammates rewarded for being able to play through three years of ownership distraction. But the Hawks are just deeper and more talented and anytime they’re a pooch in this series, you can pencil us in and we make no exception here. Play: Chicago +110 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +142 over N.Y. RANGERS Pinnacle
See our write-up below on the Senators to win the series. We’ll take them in game one also. Play: Ottawa +156 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +142 over BOSTON Pinnacle
See our write-up below on the Capitals to win the series. We’ll take them in game one also. Play: Washington +142 (Risking 2 units).

NHL SERIES

Ottawa +193 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Senators are not going to be an easy out. They have deep scoring, good speed, and enough grit to match the Rangers' toughness. New York's been making a lot of mistakes down the stretch and they’re not in good form, as they’ve lost three of its last four with a chance to clinch the President’s trophy. The Rangers are an offensively challenged group that scored two goals or less in seven of their last 13 games and that’s not the way you want to come into the playoffs. Ottawa has been written off many times this year. They were written off before the season began. They were written off as a fluke 25 games in and all they kept on doing was winning games. Don’t write this team off. They’re good and they can challenge the Rangers in this series. Sens better balanced team with more weapons than the Blue Shirts. Yes, the Rangers are better defensively but Ottawa is capable of playing different styles and could be in New York’s kitchen after beating them rather handily in the season series 3-1 and outscoring them, 14-8. This is going to be a long series and the Sens are going to give this prohibitive favorite a big run for their money. Play: Ottawa +193 (Risking 1 unit).

Washington +183 over BOSTON

Every year the Capitals are big favorites to win round one and every year they’re one of the favorites to reach the finals. Does playing the significant underdog role allow the Caps to play with more emotional freedom? Certainly top players like Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom and Captain Alex Ovechkin have not fared well under the spotlight of expectation in the playoffs but the Caps have some things working in their favor. Stanley Cup champs have a history of bowing out early the next year because of fatigue and the grueling toll of playing well into June the previous year. It’s also worth noting that Washington beat Boston three out of four times this season. The real kicker is that the Caps are healthy, Ovechkin has his center back and with Backstrom, Green, Ovechkin and Semin all playing in the same game this season, Washington is 11-1. When discussing this series, one has to consider the goaltending situation. With veteran Tomas Vokoun out with a groin injury and Michal Neuvirth on the mend, it looks like the Game 1 start will go to rookie Braden Holtby. Holtby has been solid in relief this season, going 4-2-1, including a win in New York on Saturday that denied the Rangers the Presidents' Trophy. He is 14-4-3 with three shutouts in his NHL career but is without any playoff experience at the NHL level. The 22-year-old has proved himself to be remarkably poised and confident in his brief exposure to NHL play. If he can summon his inner Ken Dryden, this series could be closer than most expect. Tim Thomas is probably not too happy about drawing the Capitals after he refused to visit the White House. Funny, isn’t it, how that works out? Thomas is erratic. His unorthodox style of flopping around has gotten him into many precarious situations and while he can shine, it’s also difficult to have a lot of faith in him. With all the pressure on the B’s, the Caps come into this series in a complete role reversal than previous years in more ways than one. No longer do they play a free-wheeling open style and nor are they expected to win. With a tag like this, it’s worth the risk to see if the Caps can finally thrive in the playoffs. Play: Washington +183 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Series - Phoenix Coyotes +110

The Coyotes finished with 4 fewer points than the Blackhawks, but took 1st in the Pacific division to secure them 3rd spot in the Western Conference and home ice advantage. The Coyotes have won 5 straight games heading into the playoffs, while the Blackhawks finished the season with three straight games going to shootout and a 1-2 record in those games (both losses came to Minnesota). Take note that these two teams have met 4 times this season, with Phoenix winning 3 of the 4. The Coyotes took both games in Chicago 4-3 and 4-1, and they split games in Phoenix with Chicago winning the first meeting in October 5-2 and the Coyotes winning the latest 3-0 with Mike Smith stopping 38 of 38 shots against. Speaking about Mike Smith, he has been unbelievable to close out the season. Smith has won 5 straight games in which he allowed just 2 goals against. Three straight shutouts all included 38 or more shots against per game. Phoenix has home ice advantage, a hotter goaltender, and advantage in the season series. I like the price we're getting on the Coyotes.

Series - Ottawa Senators +195

Despite being a #1 vs #8 match up this one should be closer than the oddsmakers have it. The Senators had a good 21-14-6 road record and should be able to give the Rangers some troubles in New York. These two teams met 4 times this season with Ottawa taking 3 of the 4 meetings. In October the Sens beat New York 5-4 in shootout, before losing 3-2 in Ottawa in November. The Senators then went back into New York to win 3-0 in January and more recently meat the Rangers at home 4-1 in March. The Senators scored 2.96 goals per game this season compared to 2.71 for the Rangers. New York has a big edge in net, allowing just 2.2 goals against per game compared to 2.88 for the Sens, but I believe that Craig Anderson could step up for Ottawa. Anderson is 33-22-6 on the season with a 2.83 GAA and .914 SV%. Note that for whatever reason the Senators play well in New York historically, going 21-6 in their last 27 meetings in New York. If the Senators tighten up defensively I think they will match up well with New York and we are getting a great price here. Take the Sens to win this series.

Marc Lawrence

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Marlins conclude a three game series when Joe Blanton matches serves with Mark Buehrle in Philadelphia this evening. Blanton takes the mound knowing he is 7-2 in his nine career team starts against the Fish while coming off a solid spring camp in which he issued 1 walk against 16 strikeouts while posting a 1.07 WHIP. Stay at home the the cheese steaks here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Matt Fargo

Arizona D-Backs vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona dropped its first game of the season last night against San Diego so expect a big bounceback here tonight. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 and are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season as they put up just one run. The bats have been relatively slow to start the season as they are hitting just .218 but the pitching has more than made up for it and we should see that a lot this season. Arizona currently possesses a 3.33 team ERA. The Diamondbacks go with Ian Kennedy who is coming off a sensational season a year ago. He went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but he was not unable to even sniff the Cy Young Award because of even better performances from Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay. While his ERA this year is 4.05 after one start, he did toss a quality outing against the Giants as he allowed three runs in 6.2 innings. Kennedy has feasted off the Padres as he is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven career starts. The Padres are off to a 2-4 start to the season and it is one that is expected to be a long one. While the Diamondbacks offense has been slow out of the gates, the Padres offense has been even worse as they are hitting just .180 through five games. This is no surprise though. Last season, San Diego finished with the lowest batting average in the National League while its 593 runs scored were the second fewest in the league. The Padres had only 35 home wins last year, fifth fewest in baseball. Anthony Bass will be making his first start of the season as his first early work this season has come exclusively out of the bullpen. He has allowed just one run in four innings and if last year was any indication, he likely won't be going far in this start. He made three starts last season and he did not go past five innings in any of those as his pitch count was limited, which will be the case again Thursday.

Frank Jordan

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The LA Angels are off to a rocky start as they have a solid rotation and stud in the middle of the line up, but are just 2-3 and in last place. Minnesota is also in last place and has just a single win in their first five games. That win did come last night as they beat the Angels 6-5. This get away day rubber match has a good pitching match up with Francisco Liriano and Dan Haren dueling it out. Both starters had rough first outings getting the loss. Haren didn't make it out of the 6th against Kansas City and before he was chased he allowed five runs. Liriano went just four inning allowing five earned runs in a loss to Baltimore. Look for both of these pitchers to throw better with the Angels proving to be too much in the end. Play LA Angels

Ben Burns

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: San Jose Sharks

The Blues were the better team for most of the season and they had success in the regular season series. The Sharks are seemingly peaking at the right time though. They've won four straight while the Blues lost four of their last five.

The Sharks have more offensive firepower and are arguably the more talented team overall. They're 20-7 (+8.9) in the month of April the past few seasons and I feel they've got an excellent shot at stealing tonight's opener. Looking for a live dog with a solid return? Consider SJ

Sean Murphy

Ottawa @ NY Rangers
PICK: Ottawa +1.5

I took the Senators to win this series, so it's no surprise that I'm backing them in some form in the opener on Thursday.

I'll grab the puck-and-a-half as insurance out of respect to the Rangers 27-14 home record this season. With that being said, I believe the Sens have an excellent shot at stealing a game at MSG before heading back to Ottawa for Game 3.

Keep in mind, the Senators posted a winning record on the road during the regular season, albeit just 21-20 SU. They do limp into the postseason following three straight losses, but those came after they had clinched a playoff spot back on April 1st. I really don't think seeding mattered much to them, as it was truly a case of 'pick your poison' with the Bruins and Rangers as possible first round opponents.

Ottawa certainly held its own against New York during the regular season, taking three of four meetings, including both here on Broadway.

Apart from a four-game winning streak in late March, the Rangers didn't do much down the stretch, picking up just enough points to hold on to the Eastern Conference crown. All told, they went 9-9 over their last 18 regular season games, including five home losses.

I expect this to be a nip-and-tuck series all the way, making that extra goal mean an awful lot here in Game 1. We're being asked to play a stiff tariff to back the Sens on the puck-line, but it's worth it in my opinion. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues

I bet value where I see it and like the home side to take Game 1 of this Western Conference opening round series.

The Sharks finished 43-29-10, ending up with the 7th spot in the Western Conference playoff picture by winning their final four games of the regular season. With the 3-2 OT victory over the Kings on Saturday, San Jose avoided being slotted into eighth spot, which would have meant a date with the Canucks:

"(They're a) great team. We're going to have our work cut out for us," Joe Thornton said. "They've played well ever since (Ken Hitchcock) took over, and it will be a good test for us."

The Sharks lost all four regular season games against the Blues (who went 30-6-1-4 in St. Louis this year); San Jose managed just three total goals in those four games, and was shutout twice.

The Blues finished 49-22-11, ending up with 2nd spot in the West.

St. Louis scored 11-goals in the four wins over San Jose.

The Blues stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but snapped a four game slide with a 3-2 win over Dallas on Saturday.

Stanley Cup winner Antti Niemi (2.42 GAA and six shutouts) of the Sharks will be facing off against the Jennings Trophy Winners in Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot (given to the goaltender tandem with the lowest goals-against average in the NHL; they combined for a 1.89 GAA).

St. Louis enters Game 1 with no injuries; the Sharks are also very healthy, with just RW Torrey Mitchell being a game time decision after suffering an undisclosed upper-body injury in LA last Thursday.

St. Louis was almost unstoppable at home, due in large part to its incredible, smothering, hard-hitting and relentless defensive pressure; the Blues gave up a league-low 165-goals this year (allowing less than 2-goals per game).

Blues defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is considered one of the top defenders in the league, and is very adept on the blueline; he set career high in goals (12), assists (39) and points (51).

St. Louis averages just 2.51 goals per game, but gets the job done offensively by committee, not relying on any one scorer to carry it. David Backes has 24-goals and 30-assists; TJ Oshie finished with 19-goals and 35-assists; David Perron had 21-goals.

In all, nine different players reached double digits in goals.

Thornton has 64-goals in 109-playoff games for San Jose; Patrick Marleau has 52-goals and 36-assists in 124 postseason contests.

One area that the Sharks do own a significant advantage over the Blues is with the man-advantage, as they ranked second in the league at 21.1% efficiency.

So while the Sharks have more experience collectively in the playoffs, the Blues are simply too tough in this position I feel.

In 15 shorthanded situations in these teams four regular season games this year, St. Louis gave up just a single power-play goal to San Jose.

When taking into account all of the advantages that St. Louis has tonight, you may want to consider laying what I feel is a very reasonable price on the home side!

Freddy Wills

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Los Angeles Angels

Angels get an early start at 1:10pm which is like 10:10 there time and that's one of the only reasons why this is not a premium play. First of all the Twins have not convinced me they can hit yet even with Morneau and Mauer in the line up as they are dead last with a .492 OPS. Mauer and Morneau are in the line up tonight so I wouldn't be surprised if one of them even sat, but the real reason I'm backing the Angels is because of Haren. Haren who looks to bounce back from his 5.1 IP 5 ER vs. KC in his first start picked a perfect opponent to do it against. He had a 2.57 ERA last year against the Twins and even better he had a 1.77 ERA during day games and a 1.23 ERA in April (2.31 last 3 years combined).

Francisco Liriano takes the mound for the Twins and he's as inconsistent as they come. We never know what we will get from him but 4IP 5 ER vs. the Orioles was not a good start. He had a 5.05 ERA last year at home and a 6.99 ERA during day starts and a 9.13 ERA in April. The Angels have 50 AB combined and carry a .380 average and a .975 OPS. If nothing else the Angels will have plenty of confidence on Thursday.

Notable Hot Starters:
Matt Garza (6 IP 2er 1st start) (2.69 ERA during day last year)
Ian Kennedy (last year's relevant states - 3.19 ERA away, 2.70 night, 1.74 ERA vs. Padres)
Madison Bumgarner (2.61 ERA in day starts last year 4 starts and a 0.67 ERA vs. Rockies)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Of the cold starters who either have struggled thus far, struggled last April or can't seem to get it together during their day starts we chose Joe Blanton as today's most likely pitcher to win. He had a 7.05 ERA in April over the last 3 years, but he's basically been written off. Now he gets an opportunity and I think he shows up big time. He also gets to face his favorite opponent in the Miami Marlins who over his last 7 starts he has a 2.86 ERA. Mark Buehlre goes for the Marlins and the Phillies finally hit on Wednesday night I expect that to carry in against a pitcher that's new to the National League.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jeff Nieman (5.60 ERA last April, 5.63 ERA during day starts last 3 years combined)
Francisco Liriano (last year - 5.05 ERA at home, 6.99 ERA day, and 9.13 ERA in April)

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers

I've always been bullish on backing debuting lefties as, sight unseen, they frequently can fool even the best big league hitters. That's the basis for backing Drew Smyly in his first start for Detroit. I'll go with the Tigers.

Jim Feist

Mariners vs Rangers
Pick: Over

The Ball Park in Arlington, Texas, is a hitter-friendly park, as we saw with the debut of phenom Yu Darvish this week, struggling early. Jason Vargas goes for Seattle and has good numbers, but that was against light hitting Oakland (2 games). Now he faces a powerhouse Texas offense in a small park. He is 3-4 with a 4.53 ERA against the Rangers. Texas goes with Derek Holland and the over is 19-7-2 in Holland's last 28 starts, as well as 19-7-1 over the total in Holland's last 27 home starts. And when these teams meet the over is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Texas. Play the Mariners/Rangers over the total.

EZWINNERS

Arizona Diamondbacks -130

The Diamondback's starting pitcher Ian Kennedy didn't have his best command during his Opening Day start against the Giants, but Kennedy still managed to allow only three runs over six 2/3 innings innings of work. Kennedy is another pitcher that had great success against these Padres in 2011. In three starts against San Diego last season, Kennedy was 3-0 with an ERA of only 1.74. The Padres send Anthony Bass to the mound for this game. Bass will be filling in for Dustin Moseley, who is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury and his margin for error will most likely not be much with the success that Kennedy has had against the Padres bats. The D-Backs are 10-1 in Kennedy's last eleven starts against a team with a losing record. Play on Arizona.

JR O'Donnell

Milwaukee Brewers -130

Tonight's first pitch is slated for EARLY AFTERNOON as the Chicago Cubs (1-4 -$306) host the Milwaukee Brewers (3-2 +$64). Cubs send veteran Matt Garza to the mound, who is 0-0 in 2012, with a 6 inning performance surrendering 5 hits and 6 runs while walking one and striking out five vs. the Washington Nationals. If the truth be told the bullpen blew the game, as he left with only the chance to win. He will face Zack Greinke for the Brew Crew who is 1-0 after going "7" strong innings, allowing "3" hits, "0" runs and getting the win in his first start for 2012. He has a rested bullpen, and we believe he will compete for the Cy Young Award this season. Milwaukee averages 5.60 runs/game overall, but 7.0 on the road, while allowing 4.5 away from home. The Cubbies average 3.6 overall, 3.6 at home, while allowing 5.2 at home. We like the pitching ace here in a 1-2 run ball game.

John Ryan

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

5* graded play on Arizona with Ian Kennedy starting as they take on the San Diego Padres in Thursday's MLB action set top start at 10:05 PM ET. Arizona is getting off a solid start to the 2012 season. They are 4-1 and only the surprising LA Dodgers are better with a 5-1 record in the National League West. San Diego has yet to play a road game and have started out 2-4 for the season. In those six games they have scored just 20 runs and offense will continue to be a negative factor for the Padres as the season moves forward.

Ian Kennedy gets the start for Arizona and based on the simulator projections, he will pitch well and complete at least 6 ⅓ innings of work. He got the win in his opening day start pitching 6 ⅔ innings scattering nine hits and allowing three earned runs in a 5-4 win over the Giants.

Kennedy has five seasons of MLB experience and is showing signs of being a dominating pitcher in 2012. In the respective careers of the current members of the San Diego Padres, Kennedy has allowed a 2.07 batting average spanning 111 at-bats. Only Nick Hundley, who is 4-for-13, has had any margin of success against Kennedy.

Kennedy has four pitches, but his best two are his curve and change. Batters are hitting just .184 against his change and will throw it nearly equally against right and left-handed batters. Even when behind in the count and the situation favors a fastball, he will throw the change 20% of the time and the curve/slider 12%. So, in a batter?s preparation, he cannot always just sit on a fastball in 2-0, 2-1 situations.

If not for some timely key hits, the Padres offense would be even more anemic. They rank 21st with 20 runs scored, 29th batting .183, 12th with a .311 on-base-percentage, and 29th with a .277 slugging percentage. Granted, there are just six games of stats, but from top to bottom the Padres are a very weak offensive team.

Given injuries to starting pitchers Tim Stauffer and Dustin Moseley, Bass has now been moved into the starting rotation. It was initially thought that Moseley only had a minor shoulder strain, but an MRI revealed substantial damage. This is unfortunate news for him and the Padres as he is coming off season-ending surgery last August.

Bass has an excellent slider that he features in nearly every at-bat, which has worked very well as a reliever. A starter must show different pitch sequences each time through the lineup and MLB hitters, who can see the same sequences of pitches will be more successful the more they see the pitches. His fastball is average and I believe that the Diamondback hitters will be able to sit on the fastball early in the count.

The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Arizona starter Ian Kennedy is a near-perfect 14-1 making 13.7 units facing the money line when facing low power teams that are averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game over the last two seasons; 8-1 making 8.2 units per one unit wagered using the money line in road games when facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game over the last two seasons. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks.