Vegas Experts
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
Play: Memphis Grizzlies
San Antonio should not be laying this many points in the second night of back to backs and fourth game in five nights. Head coach Greg Popovich has been electing to rest his stars in the last two games, both losses. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all didn't even make the trip Monday at Utah and then with all three playing limited minutes last night at home, the team lost outright to the Lakers (without Kobe) as 10-point favorites. The Spurs have shot just 40% from the floor in the two losses and will be facing a Memphis team that is allowing just 91 PPG its last 11 games and comes in with triple revenge.
Wunderdog
Clippers vs. Timberwolves
Play: Under 194.5
A lot was expected out of the Los Angeles Clippers this season, and for the most part they have delivered. Aside from a 7-12 stretch this team has been a sterling 28-11 in their other 39 games. The noticeable change is their realization that they have to play both ends of the floor to be in the hunt for a Championship. They have delivered that message on the court, holding 11 of their last 12 opponents under 100 points. Minnesota appeared to have turned the corner, but have really struggled of late playing to a 4-15 mark in their last 19 games - losers of seven straight. The offense has struggled as they have been limited to 94 points or less in six of their last nine. The Clippers defense has not suffered off of no rest as they have played to a 16-6 mark to the UNDER in their last 22, while the same can be said for the T-Wolves who are now 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six off no rest. The UNDER has ruled the roost in each of the last four meetings, and will again in this one. Play the UNDER
Bryan Power
Miami @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Fortunately for manager Ozzie Guillen and the Miami Marlins, this game is in Philadelphia & away from the firestorm going on at home surrounding Guillen's comments about Fidel Castro. On the field, they newly re-christened Marlins have not met preseason expectations and for that matter neither has division favorite Philadelphia. Mark Buehrle is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here as is Miami, who are not yet ready to be favored on the road against battled tested Phillies club that is also 61-36 vs. lefties. Philly dominated the Marlins yday 7-1, bouncing back from a 6-2 loss in the series opener. I look for the Phils to take tonight's rubber match behind Joe Blanton, who has a 7-2 career team start record against the Fish w/ a 3.33 ERA. 5
Teddy Covers
Miami @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Miami
The Marlins lineup is significantly more potent than the Phillies lineup without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley these days. Philadelphia managed just two runs per game for the first week of the season prior to last night’s breakout seven run performance. The likes of John Mayberry, Lance Nix and Freddy Galvis aren’t exactly terrifying opposing staffs. Meanwhile, Miami’s rebuilt ‘speed and power’ lineup had scored 19 runs in their three games prior to facing Roy Halladay last night, with a significant statistical edge over the Phillies in nearly every key offensive category.
The Marlins have a significant pitching edge in this ballgame as well. Veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle is primed for early success in the NL after dominating the AL for the last decade. The Phillies were completely stifled by the only other lefty they’ve seen this year, held to a single run in seven innings of work against Erik Bedard. Meanwhile, Philly’s Joe Blanton is coming off a poor 2011 season plagued by elbow injury issues. Blanton gave up the winning run against Pittsburgh last weekend, taking the loss coming out of the bullpen. Expect him to take another loss today, this time as the starter! Take Miami.
Guillermo Sanchez Perez
Detroit @ Charlotte
PICK: Over 189
Detroit is 21-36 (6-24 on the road). Charlotte is 7-49 (4-22 at home). These teams have played each other three times this year. Detroit won 98-81 in Charlotte on January 13th; the Pistons won 109-94 in Detroit on February 29th; Detroit won 110-107 at the Palace of Auburn Hills on March 31st. The O/U in the three game series thus far is 2-1, with the third game flying "over" the number by 34 1/2-points.
The Pistons have lost three straight, including a dismal 119-89 setback at Orlando on Monday. Tayshaun Prince had 21-points and eight-rebounds. Ben Gordon had 11-points. Charlie Villanueva added 10; 'It's very embarrassing,' coach Lawrence Frank lamented. 'I think it's everything. (Being) mentally (and) physically, prepared to compete in an NBA game...But we've got to make a decision as a group, how we want to go forward. This is where character's revealed.'
Detroit had won four games before its recent slide, and it will be looking to get back on track here against the lowly Bobcats, a team that it has in fact won four-straight over.
The Bobcats have lost 13-straight, including a 103-90 setback at Cleveland on Tuesday. Gerald Henderson had 21-points. Kemba Walker scored 20. DJ Augustin returned from injury to score 16-points and dish out 11-assists.
After getting blown out by an average of 20.4-points in three straight defeats, Charlotte did look better on the offensive end vs. the Cavs, coinciding with the return of Augustin to the line-up.
A couple of bottom feeders looking for anything positive to build upon for next year.
Each plays tomorrow night, as Detroit hosts the playoff hopeful Milwaukee Bucks, while Charlotte is in Miami for a scheduled destruction.
Expect defense to take a back seat in this one; a faster paced offensive game, leads to more shots, which will in turn lead to more scoring.
I'll recommend a play on the "over" in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Clippers/Timberwolves Over 194
Kevin Love is expected to miss tonight's game after suffering a concussion last night, but the T-Wolves still have enough fire power to score in the triple-digits. Love left last night's game in the first quarter without scoring a point and the T-Wolves put 107 points on the board. And Love only scored 10 points when these teams met Feb. 28 and the Wolves hung 109 on the Clippers.
Minnesota has really struggled defensively down the stretch, allowing an average of 108.3 points in its last 7 games.
The Clippers have lost the season's first 3 meetings but are 29-13 "over" in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average of 202.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, the Clipps are 22-5 "over" in road games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. We've seen an average of 199.6 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Over.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
Off a huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, the Los Angeles Clippers are in a big letdown spot tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. That was easily their biggest win of the season, and now they'll have a hard time getting up emotionally to face Minnesota.
While the Timberwolves have not been playing well of late, this team still should not be catching 7.5 points at home. A big reason for this inflated spread is the injury to Kevin Love, but the Timberwolves actually played well without him last night.
Love went out with a concussion in the first half against Denver, and Minnesota trailed 47-68 at the break. But the Timberwolves got going after intermission, outscoring the Nuggets 60-45 the rest of the way behind 15 assists from Jose Barea. This team will work well together even without Love on the floor tonight.
Minnesota is actually 3-0 against the Clippers this season despite being an underdog in each contest. The Timberwolves have held the Clippers to 98 or less points in all three wins. Los Angeles is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Clippers -7
This may seem like a big number to lay on the Clippers at Minnesota tonight, especially after their huge win in Oklahoma City last night, where they rallied late to win 100-98. However, the Clippers are fighting to keep hold of the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference playoff race. They are just a .5-game ahead of the Grizzlies and are just 1.5-games behind the Lakers for the No. 3 spot. Making sure you get home court in the playoffs is a big deal, and this is a game the Clippers simply can't afford to lose.
The Timberwolves showed some great improvement this season, and weren't that far from the No. 8 spot before losing seven straight, which included a 107-113 loss at Denver last night. Minnesota has no reason to get excited to play and makings matters even worse, Kevin Love is expected to miss this game with a head injury.
I'll take my chances on a team that is fighting for playoff seeding over a team that just wants the season to be over pretty much every time, especially when the other team is missing one of the best players in the entire NBA.
The Clippers 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Minnesota is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Jeff Alexander
Grizzlies/Spurs OVER 196.5
These two haven't combined for more than 177 points in any of this season's 3 meetings. In other words, odds makers are begging for action on the under here, but we won't bite. Both teams played last night and it is usually the defense that suffers in the second game of a back-to-back. Memphis has been an unders machine lately. However, playing the Over on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) that have gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, provided they have won between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, has produced a 32-11 mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 194.0 in these games but have seen an average total score of 204.3 points. The Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two in San Antonio. The Over is also 10-1 in the Spurs' last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the Over.
NHL Predictions
Sharks / Blues Under 5
These two teams have met 4 times this season in the regular season with St Louis winning 3 of the 4 meetings. Total scores in their meetings have included 4, 3, 1, and 6. The UNDER went 3-1, and the total of 6 goals was way back in October with the game being played in San Jose. In their two meetings in St Louis we saw 3-0 and 1-0 wins by St Louis. You may look at the Sharks line up and think that they would be one of the league's highest scoring teams, but the Sharks averaged just 2.67 goals per game on the season and just 2.46 goals per game on the road. St Louis averaged 2.51 goals per game while giving up just 1.89 against per game. At home the Blues goals against per game got even better at 1.68. Take note that the UNDER is 8-3 in the Sharks last 11 road games vs a team with a home winning % greater than .600. Also note that the UNDER is 19-7-8 in the Blues last 34 vs a team with a winning record and the UNDER is 38-15-18 in their last 71 games overall. Disregarding "pushes" the UNDER hit 43 times for the Blues this year compared to the over at just 21. Look for the Blues to play a shutdown style tonight, and we should see a low scoring game. In the playoffs here I think we have value on the UNDER 5 goals tonight.
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is the Los Angeles Clippers to build off last night's road win at Oklahoma City with another road win against the fading Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota was on the losing end again last night in Denver, as the T-Wolves have now lost seven in a row, and eight of their last nine both straight up and against the spread.
The Timberwolves have actually won all three season series meetings this year versus the Clippers, but that was when Minny was at full strength with both Rubio and Ridnour on the court.
Los Angeles is looking to move up in the playoff picture in the West, and the Clippers have won nine of their last eleven straight up, while covering in eight of their last eleven contests.
Big win last night for L.A., as they knocked off Oklahoma City. No letdown tonight, as the Clippers win their first in four tries this season against the Wolves in convincing fashion.
1♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
MATT RIVERS
Thursday night comp play is the underdog Golden State Warriors plus the inflated number tonight as they take on the Dallas Mavericks.
Golden State did suffer a setback last night in Portland, but the Warriors have not been fazed at all when playing unrested, as their 12-4 spread mark can attest.
Dallas is in need of some wins as they look to move up in the West Conference playoff standings, but that fact is reflected in tonight's bloated impost. The Mavericks are just 3-4 straight up their last seven games, so there is no way in the world I can trust them to cover, let alone win the game.
Golden State has won the last pair of series meetings straight up, and they are on a 7-2 spread roll the last nine times they have been installed as the underdog.
Dallas survives with the outright, but they do not cover this inflated impost.
Take the Warriors plus the points.
3♦ GOLDEN STATE
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the Memphis Grizzlies over the San Antonio Spurs. Vegas doesn't know exactly how to deal with the Spurs after their rare home loss to the LA Lakers. Honestly, I don't either.
I never saw that coming and neither did most people.
You can't really say they were looking ahead to this game either, because it doesn't get much bigger than the Lakers coming to your place... everyone wants to beat the Lakers.
I do have to admit, however, I thought this line would have been a little higher. Maybe it's just the aura of the Spurs, but I was expecting something like 7 or 7 1/2, not 5 and 5 1/2. Because the line is lower than I thought, it actually made me look at the Grizzlies in this game rather than just assuming the Spurs would roll.
The funny thing about this series is that it has been dominated by the Spurs over the last three meetings, but over the last few years it's been all Memphis. The Grizzlies have actually covered 10 of the last 14 meetings with one push, and considering the push was right before the Spurs covered three straight... yeah, you can do the math... Memphis covered 10 straight before that.
They have a really good opportunity to close the gap between themselves and the leaders in the Western Conference. Take the Grizzlies plus the points tonight vs. San Antonio as your free play of the day.
4♦ MEMPHIS
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free winner for tonight comes out of the National League West, as I side with the Arizona Diamondbacks down in San Diego, where they'll get past the Padres on the strength of right-hander Ian Kennedy.
I had a chance to watch Kennedy's Opening Day start against the Giants, and something tells me the 27-year-old is going to be looking to better his command, even though he still got the win. He came away from the game with a 4.05 ERA, and he's much better than that. He allowed just three runs over 6-2/3 frames of work.
He should have plenty of confidence in this one, as he was 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in three starts against the Padres in 2011. In fact, he went 10-0 against the National League West last season, and based on his opening-day start, is determined to keep that win streak alive.
This kid has a great feel for pitching, he goes in and out of the zone, and back and forth against hitters with a solid four-pitch repertoire. He made huge strides last year - in his second full season with the Snakes - and solidified his place as the ace of the team’s rotation. Kennedy uses a very good two-seam fastball that mitigates some of the risk he presents as a fly ball pitcher. That'll help tremendously in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park.
He should do fine in opposing San Diego's Anthony Bass, who gets the nod in the final game of the series, stepping in for Dustin Moseley, who is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. I'm not too worried about him in this spot.
List both and play the road chalk with the better pitcher toeing the slab.
2♦ ARIZONA
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Arizona -130 over SAN DIEGO: (Added) San Diego had a decent showing offensively in their last 2 games of the Dodgers series (13 runs), but vs Arizona pitching they have scored just 2 runs in each game and I don't see it getting any easier tonight, as they face Ian Kennedy who has pretty much owned this team. Ian is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Padres, while in 3 starts at Petco he is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA. He should have no problems shutting down a SD team that is hitting just .180 through 6 games. San Diego will be handing the ball off to Anthony Bass, who has just 3 starts in his career and is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in those starts. Tonight he will be facing an Arizona team that is hitting just .218, but is due for a breakout game. The D-Backs took a tough loss last night and scored just 1 in the process. Tonight their offense should wake up a bit, while Kennedy shuts down this sorry San Diego offense once again.
2 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Miami Over 8: (Added) Google News Play Mark Buehrle has faced the Phils 3 times in his career and has a 5.06 ERA in those games, with an average of 16.3 rpg being scored. Mark had a nice opener as he allowed just 2 ER in 6 inning s vs the Reds, but he will be going up against a Phils offense that grabbed a ton of confidence last night by scoring 7 runs on 14 hits vs Josh Johnson and company. I expect the Phils to have another solid night on offense. Joe Blanton has a 3.33 ERA inn 9 career starts vs the Marlins, but he is still Joe Blanton and should have some problems tonight vs this better than average Miami offense that could really break out in this one. The Phils showed last night that this offense is still very good, even without Utley and Howard, and they did it vs a better starter than they will face tonight. Despite the overall good numbers that Blanton has vs the Fish, he does have a 5.10 ERA in his last 2 home starts vs them. Both offenses should have a good showing tonight.